Simulation Results: Utah Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.07% 1429 501 48
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.59% 39 26 43
Algot Kleen 0.20% 500 201 148
Alistair Docherty 0.73% 137 126 89
Alvaro Ortiz 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 68 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anders Albertson 0.26% 385 276 68
Andrew Chu 0.00% 10000 401 148
Andrew Kozan 0.14% 714 301 37
Andrew Landry 0.06% 1667 751 79
Andrew Loupe 0.01% 10000 501 89
Augusto Nunez 0.44% 227 151 89
Austin Cook 0.32% 313 176 54
Austin Greaser 0.43% 233 276 0.10% 43 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Hitt 2.55% 39 51 0.60% 13 -0.6 Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Barend Botha 0.38% 263 301 2
Ben Crane 0.23% 435 501
Billy Tom Sargent 0.20% 500 301 22
Bio Kim 0.13% 769 176 22
Blades Brown 0.87% 115 67 7
Blaine Hale 0.39% 256 161 106
Blake Hathcoat 0.01% 10000 1001 79
Brandon Berry 0.28% 357 301 22
Brandon Harkins 0.11% 909 401 116
Brandon Hoelzer 0.22% 455 501 54
Brendan Valdes 4.60% 22 29 1.20% 106 -1.2 Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendon Jelley 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 37 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bronson Burgoon 0.26% 385 226 89
Bryce Lewis 2.07% 48 61 0.40% 7 -0.4 PaddyPower: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.16% 625 301 89
Caleb VanArragon 0.95% 105 71 89
Carl Yuan 1.10% 91 67 79
Carter Jenkins 0.29% 345 151
Charles Huntzinger 0.04% 2500 501 89
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.13% 769 301 22
Clay Feagler 0.04% 2500 401 76
Cody Blick 0.42% 238 151 106
Cole Hammer 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 43 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cole Howard 0.00% 10000 1001 140
Cole Ponich 0.00% 10000 126 22
Cole Sherwood 1.23% 81 126 0.40% 138 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor Howe 0.17% 588 401 37
Cooper Dossey 1.11% 90 51 89
Cooper Musselman 0.21% 476 401 68
Dalton Ward 0.13% 769 401 152
Dan McCarthy 0.75% 133 111 68
Daniel Summerhays 0.73% 137 56 22
David Kocher 0.44% 227 151 43
Davis Shore 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dawson Armstrong 0.12% 833 501 89
Derek Bard 0.10% 1000 601 13
Doc Redman 1.26% 79 71 132
Dylan Menante 1.39% 72 91 0.30% 48 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez 2.00% 50 41 13
Etienne Papineau 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 13 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Cohen 0.06% 1667 401 125
Grant Hirschman 0.13% 769 351 140
Harry Hillier 0.48% 208 161 155
Hayden Banz 0.00% 10000 501 116
Hunter Eichhorn 0.81% 123 176 0.20% 125 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ian Gilligan 0.65% 154 101 140
Jackson Van Paris 0.07% 1429 301 22
Jacob Solomon 0.02% 5000 1251 68
James Nicholas 0.26% 385 201 78
Jeffrey Kang 0.84% 119 91 132
Jeremy Gandon 0.97% 103 81 37
Jin Chung 0.00% 10000 501 106
Joe Weiler 0.43% 233 176 54
John Greco 0.02% 5000 751 62
John VanDerLaan 1.83% 55 56 22
Johnny Keefer 3.85% 26 19 7
Jonas Baumgartner 0.03% 3333 401 68
Josh Teater 0.66% 152 101 106
Joshua Creel 0.25% 400 176 132
Julian Etulain 0.15% 667 501 153
Julian Suri 0.88% 114 101 1
Justin Suh 0.86% 116 61 106
Keenan Huskey 0.17% 588 301 89
Kensei Hirata 3.74% 27 26 2
Kevin Dougherty 1.67% 60 41 89
Kihei Akina 0.29% 345 301 89
KK Limbhasut 0.04% 2500 601 116
Kyle Cottam 0.03% 3333 22
Kyle Westmoreland 0.33% 303 251 116
Logan McAllister 0.77% 130 101 54
Luke Guthrie 0.09% 1111 276 13
M.J. Daffue 0.53% 189 126 79
Marcelo Rozo 1.31% 76 76 62
Marcus Plunkett 0.13% 769 351 106
Matt Atkins 0.63% 159 301 0.30% 116 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.22% 455 251 132
Michael Johnson 1.22% 82 67 22
Mitchell Meissner 2.80% 36 31 22
Mitchell Schow 0.01% 10000 351 54
Myles Creighton 0.39% 256 226 132
Nate Stember 0.06% 1667 601 153
Nelson Ledesma 0.27% 370 251 89
Nick Gabrelcik 0.54% 185 151 76
Nick Watney 0.53% 189 201 79
Nicolo Galletti 1.78% 56 46 13
Noah Woolsey 0.02% 5000 501 116
Omar Morales 0.00% 10000 351 125
Owen Stamper 0.25% 400 276 79
Patrick Cover 0.26% 385 276 89
Patrick Welch 0.73% 137 111 132
Paul Haley 0.04% 2500 1001 140
Peter Kuest 0.08% 1250 301 22
Petr Hruby 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 19 -0.1 Betfred: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon 0.34% 294 126 54
Pontus Nyholm 1.09% 92 61 37
Preston Summerhays 0.24% 417 126 7
Raul Pereda 0.05% 2000 501 140
Rayhan Thomas 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 106 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhein Gibson 0.08% 1250 401 89
Richy Werenski 0.10% 1000 351 116
Riley Elmes 0.00% 10000 1001 66
Rob Oppenheim 0.17% 588 226 37
Robby Shelton 0.77% 130 86 7
Robert Streb 0.11% 909 351 54
Roberto Diaz 0.40% 250 141 140
Roger Sloan 0.82% 122 126 48
Ross Steelman 1.76% 57 41 19
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.08% 1250 501 62
Russell Knox 0.29% 345 276 106
Ryan Blaum 0.24% 417 501 138
Ryan Burnett 0.19% 526 201 125
Ryan Hall 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 79 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan McCormick 0.59% 169 126 155
Sam Bennett 0.28% 357 151 140
Samuel Anderson 0.24% 417 301 79
Sandy Scott 1.56% 64 81 0.30% 79 -0.3 William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Gutschewski 0.65% 154 151 140
Scott Piercy 1.22% 82 81 116
Sebastian Cappelen 0.26% 385 301 22
Sebastian Moss 0.06% 1667 251 125
Seonghyeon Kim 2.31% 43 41 22
Seungtaek Lee 2.36% 42 41 48
Seung-Yul Noh 1.88% 53 71 0.50% 62 -0.5 PaddyPower: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shad Tuten 0.53% 189 101 7
Spencer Levin 0.18% 556 401 2
Spencer Ralston 0.18% 556 401 106
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.14% 88 81 148
Tanner Gore 0.14% 714 1001 125
Tanner Napier 0.02% 5000 601 125
Taylor Montgomery 1.13% 88 23 2
Tom Whitney 1.02% 98 101 89
Trace Crowe 1.31% 76 71 2
Travis Trace 0.47% 213 176 148
Trent Phillips 1.14% 88 71 66
Trey Winstead 0.41% 244 151 89
Tyler Duncan 1.69% 59 56 48
Tyson Alexander 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 48 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Cannon 0.72% 139 111 116
Wilson Furr 1.16% 86 67 43
Zach Bauchou 2.50% 40 26 22
Zach James 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 79 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 71 19

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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