Simulation Results: UNC Health Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.29% 345 251 88
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.16% 46 34 8
Alistair Docherty 1.26% 79 56 67
Alvaro Ortiz 1.93% 52 41 88
Anders Albertson 0.42% 238 201 34
Andrew Landry 0.05% 2000 1251 88
Anthony Maccaglia 0.05% 2000 501 136
Augusto Nunez 1.14% 88 126 0.30% 51 -0.3 Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook 0.22% 455 201 141
Austin Greaser 0.45% 222 161 138
Austin Hitt 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 34 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 1.46% 68 51 16
Barend Botha 0.29% 345 301 88
Ben Crane 0.14% 714 1001 144
Ben Martin 1.09% 92 51 48
Ben Taylor 1.16% 86 56 128
Billy Kennerly 0.31% 323 201 67
Blaine Hale 0.48% 208 201 67
Blake McShea 0.12% 833 251 56
Brandon Berry 0.07% 1429 1001 26
Brandon Crick 0.64% 156 276 0.30% 67 -0.3 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.25% 400 251 128
Brandon Hoelzer 0.33% 303 251 26
Brandon Matthews 0.10% 1000 501 144
Bronson Burgoon 0.22% 455 351 123
Bryce Lewis 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 12 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.60% 167 126 114
Caleb VanArragon 0.43% 233 251 34
Cameron Champ 1.04% 96 81 88
Carl Yuan 0.29% 345 176 114
Carter Jenkins 0.64% 156 51 43
Chandler Blanchet 1.55% 65 51 144
Chesson Hadley 0.43% 233 81 67
Chris Crawford 0.09% 1111 751 56
Christo Lamprecht 0.50% 200 81 34
Cody Blick 0.33% 303 251 67
Cole Hammer 0.24% 417 226 88
Cole Sherwood 0.72% 139 91 88
Cooper Dossey 0.61% 164 126 51
Cristobal Del Solar 0.44% 227 86 88
Dalton Ward 0.19% 526 501 114
Dan McCarthy 0.44% 227 251 6
David Kocher 0.24% 417 251 106
Davis Chatfield 1.00% 100 67 2
Davis Shore 0.79% 127 67 67
Dylan Menante 1.27% 79 71 16
Emilio Gonzalez 1.43% 70 71 8
Etienne Papineau 0.21% 476 401 34
Fabian Gomez 0.45% 222 176 34
George McNeill 0.19% 526 351 114
Grant Hirschman 0.19% 526 301 88
Hank Lebioda 0.84% 119 56 2
Harrison Endycott 0.29% 345 201 67
Harry Hillier 0.27% 370 126 43
Hunter Eichhorn 0.08% 1250 276 26
Ian Holt 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 19 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Maguire 0.62% 161 151 34
Jack Marcotte 0.00% 10000 501 56
Jacob Solomon 0.11% 909 501 114
Jake Sollon 0.00% 10000 1001 67
James Nicholas 0.33% 303 151 26
Jeffrey Kang 0.99% 101 111 0.10% 26 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Gandon 0.62% 161 67 56
Jim Herman 0.04% 2500 501 138
Jin Chung 0.10% 1000 501 128
Joe Weiler 1.04% 96 91 114
John Augenstein 0.16% 625 351 136
John VanDerLaan 0.75% 133 126 51
Johnny Keefer 3.39% 29 17 12
Jonas Baumgartner 0.10% 1000 751 141
Jonathan Brightwell 0.02% 5000 501 65
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.31% 323 201 88
Josh Teater 0.57% 175 101 26
Joshua Creel 0.30% 333 201 88
Julian Suri 0.65% 154 101 67
Justin Suh 1.56% 64 56 23
Kensei Hirata 1.29% 78 41 128
Kevin Dougherty 0.56% 179 151 55
Kevin Tway 0.64% 156 111 67
Kieron Van Wyk 0.31% 323 81 123
Kyle Westmoreland 0.55% 182 101 106
Logan McAllister 0.80% 125 101 64
Luke Guthrie 0.10% 1000 501 62
M.J. Daffue 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 114 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mac Murphy 0.04% 2500 751 149
Marcelo Rozo 0.47% 213 176 67
Mark Lawrence 1.53% 65 301 1.20% 16 -1.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Laird 0.47% 213 131 2
Matt Atkins 0.37% 270 601 0.20% 133 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 1.62% 62 41 43
Matthew Anderson 0.36% 278 226 106
Michael Brennan 0.52% 192 81 106
Michael Johnson 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 5 0.95 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mitchell Meissner 2.77% 36 23 88
Myles Creighton 0.61% 164 101 57
Nate Stember 0.21% 476 201 106
Neal Shipley 1.37% 73 46 123
Nelson Ledesma 0.26% 385 201 114
Nick Gabrelcik 0.59% 169 101 34
Nick Watney 0.35% 286 126 123
Nicolo Galletti 0.19% 526 501 67
Norman Xiong 0.50% 200 67 149
Patrick Cover 0.50% 200 176 133
Patrick Welch 0.62% 161 151 60
Paul Barjon 0.13% 769 751 114
Petr Hruby 0.26% 385 351 128
Philip Knowles 0.17% 588 501 8
Pierceson Coody 2.01% 50 19 12
Pontus Nyholm 1.23% 81 34 19
Rayhan Thomas 0.32% 313 276 149
Rhein Gibson 0.23% 435 226 149
Richy Werenski 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 138 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb 0.94% 106 67 67
Rob Oppenheim 0.40% 250 101 63
Robby Shelton 0.71% 141 126 67
Robert Streb 0.34% 294 301 144
Roberto Diaz 0.50% 200 176 43
Roger Sloan 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 88 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.30% 77 41 12
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.26% 385 176 106
Russell Knox 0.81% 123 81 67
Ryan Armour 0.34% 294 301 148
Ryan Blaum 0.49% 204 151 88
Ryan Hall 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 26 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick 1.12% 89 101 0.10% 149 -0.1 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Bennett 0.38% 263 161 133
Samuel Anderson 0.46% 217 201 48
Sandy Scott 0.44% 227 176 88
Scott Piercy 0.40% 250 251 67
Sebastian Cappelen 0.64% 156 251 0.20% 88 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim 3.81% 26 21 106
Seth Reeves 0.15% 667 401 141
Seungtaek Lee 2.11% 47 29 26
Seung-Yul Noh 0.96% 104 81 23
Shad Tuten 0.88% 114 67 19
Spencer Ralston 0.31% 323 301 106
Stuart Macdonald 0.17% 588 201 67
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.85% 118 81 149
Tanner Gore 0.26% 385 251 51
Tano Goya 0.36% 278 226 34
Thomas Walsh 0.54% 185 151 43
Tom Whitney 0.79% 127 101 67
Tommy Gainey 0.13% 769 1001 123
Trace Crowe 1.59% 63 34 1
Trent Phillips 0.75% 133 51 88
Trey Winstead 0.96% 104 56 88
Tyler Duncan 0.73% 137 81 48
Tyson Alexander 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 7 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Gordon 0.88% 114 81 67
William McGirt 0.44% 227 501 0.20% 149 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 19 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 1.53% 65 51 60
Zach James 0.32% 313 301 23
Zack Fischer 0.21% 476 226 67
Zecheng Dou 1.34% 75 67 8

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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