Simulation Results: UNC Health Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley	0.12%	833	351		130
Alex Heffner	0.00%	10000	751		48
Alex Vogelsong	0.03%	3333	301		110
Alistair Docherty	1.53%	65	34		70
Alvaro Ortiz	0.55%	182	126		1
Andrew Kozan	0.17%	588	501		60
Ashton Van Horne	0.13%	769	501		19
Augusto Nunez	0.22%	455	276		100
Austin Greaser	0.12%	833	301		88
Austin Hitt	1.12%	89	81		100
Barend Botha	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	136	-0.1	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Carr	0.86%	116	101		7
Ben Taylor	1.01%	99	81		7
Billy Tom Sargent	0.15%	667	351		120
Blades Brown	3.89%	26	13		13
Blaine Hale	0.43%	233	251		110
Braden Thornberry	0.22%	455	351		66
Brandon Berry	0.31%	323	276		142
Brandon Harkins	0.15%	667	301		30
Brandon Wu	0.14%	714	301		19
Brett Stegmaier	0.09%	1111	351		55
Brett White	0.16%	625	501		100
Bronson Burgoon	1.62%	62	29
Bryce Lewis	1.01%	99	91		70
Bryson Nimmer	0.04%	2500	501		110
Caleb VanArragon	3.17%	32	31		130
Cameron Champ	0.68%	147	111
Carl Pettersson	0.03%	3333	1001		30
Carl Yuan	0.95%	105	201	0.50%	70	-0.5	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Bacha	0.49%	204	101		100
Carson Young	0.89%	112	36		130
Chad Sewell	0.19%	526	251		110
Chan Kim	1.19%	84	67		13
Chesson Hadley	0.11%	909	251		60
Chez Reavie	0.48%	208	176		13
Chris Francoeur	0.48%	208	301	0.10%	55	-0.1	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Korte	0.25%	400	251		55
Christian Salzer	0.02%	5000	1001
Cole Hammer	1.11%	90	56		88
Cole Sherwood	2.04%	49	36
Connor Creasy	0.04%	2500	1001		70
Cooper Dossey	2.91%	34	21		7
Cristobal Del Solar	0.34%	294	276		100
D.A. Points	0.01%	10000	1001		154
Daniel Summerhays	0.24%	417	176		120
David Kocher	0.18%	556	501		19
David Lingmerth	0.12%	833	201		13
Davis Lamb	0.60%	167	101		25
Davis Shore	1.98%	51	46		34
Derek Hitchner	0.41%	244	251		70
Doc Redman	3.25%	31	19		48
Domenico Geminiani	0.01%	10000	1001		70
Drew Nesbitt	0.18%	556	276		100
Dylan Menante	2.62%	38	46	0.50%	38	-0.5	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez	0.67%	149	151		70
Harry Higgs	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	70	-0.2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	1.63%	61	111	0.70%	38	-0.7	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henrik Norlander	0.39%	256	151		88
Hunter Eichhorn	2.60%	38	26		48
Hunter Wolcott	0.31%	323	126		88
Ian Gilligan	1.76%	57	34		120
Ian Holt	1.21%	83	51		44
Jack Maguire	0.13%	769	251		88
Jackson Buchanan	0.16%	625	226		142
Jackson Van Paris	0.31%	323	126		116
Jacob Solomon	0.28%	357	251		25
James Nicholas	1.10%	91	81		70
Jay Card	0.47%	213	176		44
Jayce Hargrove	0.00%	10000			100
Jeff Overton	0.05%	2000	1001		156
Jeremy Gandon	1.62%	62	51		110
Jeremy Paul	0.42%	238	126		3
Joe Weiler	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	142	-0.2	10Bet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Marshall Butler	0.71%	141	126		13
John Pak	0.97%	103	61		7
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.51%	66	46		65
Jorge Garcia	0.18%	556	501		25
Joseph Bramlett	2.07%	48	41		48
Julian Suri	0.30%	333	201		120
Justin Hastings	0.17%	588	501		150
Justin Suh	0.82%	122	81		38
Kyle Westmoreland	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	110	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.12%	833	351		70
Levi Valadez	0.00%	10000	501		154
Logan McAllister	0.22%	455	301		5
Luke Gutschewski	0.32%	313	301		30
Luke List	0.33%	303	176		38
Marshall Meisel	0.16%	625	301		142
Martin Laird	0.66%	152	126		48
Mason Andersen	0.78%	128	111		88
Matt Atkins	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	7	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith	0.39%	256	276		136
Matthew Anderson	0.22%	455	276		142
Matthew Riedel	0.21%	476	501		130
Max Green	0.02%	5000	351		120
Maxwell Moldovan	0.58%	172	151		88
Michael Feagles	0.22%	455	351		130
Michael Johnson	3.78%	26	23		100
Michael Thompson	0.08%	1250	151		66
Miles Russell	0.50%	200	71		116
Mitchell Meissner	1.91%	52	46		88
Myles Creighton	0.14%	714	301		70
Nicholas Infanti	0.09%	1111	601		142
Nick Gabrelcik	0.72%	139	81		116
Nicolo Galletti	1.01%	99	81		120
Noah Goodwin	0.56%	179	126		38
Norman Xiong	0.25%	400	226		70
Peter Kuest	0.33%	303	501	0.10%	60	-0.1	Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	120	-0.1	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.27%	370	301		88
Philip Knowles	0.18%	556	351		25
Preston Summerhays	0.12%	833	501		70
Rayhan Thomas	0.44%	227	201		60
Rhein Gibson	0.18%	556	351		100
Ricardo Celia	0.19%	526	501		55
Rick Lamb	0.73%	137	176	0.20%	19	-0.2	PaddyPower: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rob Oppenheim	0.18%	556	276		69
Robby Shelton	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	13	-0.1	BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roger Sloan	0.77%	130	126		25
Ross Steelman	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	2	0.825	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Russell Knox	0.56%	179	151		38
Ryan Blaum	0.22%	455	176		88
Ryan Brehm	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	150	-0.1	Unibet: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett	0.33%	303	276		30
Ryan Sullivan	0.04%	2500	501		142
Ryo Ishikawa	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	88	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.11%	909	501		19
Sandy Scott	1.97%	51	41		44
Scott Gutschewski	0.14%	714	501		70
Sebastian Cappelen	0.16%	625	601		136
Seung-Yul Noh	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	19	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stuart Macdonald	0.39%	256	276		116
Taylor Dickson	0.45%	222	151		130
Taylor Montgomery	0.63%	159	71		70
Theo Humphrey	0.44%	227	251		55
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Trace	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	34	-0.5	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	1.21%	83	51		48
Trevor Cone	1.16%	86	67		100
Trey Winstead	0.06%	1667	501		34
Troy Merritt	0.20%	500	151		48
Turk Pettit	0.33%	303	141		5
Tyler Duncan	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	88	-0.2	PaddyPower: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.08%	1250	601		34
Tyler Wilkes	0.07%	1429	501		3
Tyson Alexander	0.12%	833	301		136
Vicente Marzilio	0.17%	588	351		60
Wil Bateman	0.27%	370	301		120
Will Cannon	0.83%	120	176	0.30%	66	-0.3	PaddyPower: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.42%	238	151		136
Will Gordon	0.48%	208	351	0.20%	120	-0.2	Unibet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	152	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	0.71%	141	151		44
Zack Fischer	0.14%	714	301		7

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley	0.33%	303	151		109
Alex Heffner	0.08%	1250	351		32
Alex Vogelsong	0.35%	286	141		109
Alistair Docherty	0.91%	110	51		66
Alvaro Ortiz	0.67%	149	111		16
Andrew Kozan	0.61%	164	161		2
Ashton Van Horne	0.32%	313	201		16
Augusto Nunez	0.44%	227	126		47
Austin Duncan	0.28%	357	126		91
Austin Greaser	0.34%	294	176		124
Austin Hitt	0.81%	123	81		91
Barend Botha	0.82%	122	126		135
Ben Carr	0.99%	101	81		47
Ben Taylor	0.79%	127	81		10
Billy Tom Sargent	0.41%	244	161		66
Blades Brown	1.51%	66	34		10
Blaine Hale	0.59%	169	126		124
Braden Thornberry	0.58%	172	161		4
Brandon Berry	0.64%	156	126		135
Brandon Harkins	0.39%	256	126		16
Brandon Wu	0.38%	263	176		47
Brett Schell	0.11%	909	201		142
Brett Stegmaier	0.30%	333	176		32
Brett White	0.37%	270	161		91
Bryce Lewis	0.81%	123	81		66
Bryson Nimmer	0.23%	435	201		66
Caleb VanArragon	1.36%	74	51		109
Carl Pettersson	0.20%	500	351		47
Carl Yuan	0.78%	128	111		47
Carson Bacha	0.56%	179	101		66
Carson Young	0.73%	137	61		66
Chad Sewell	0.43%	233	141		66
Chan Kim	1.11%	90	71		16
Chesson Hadley	0.44%	227	101		47
Chez Reavie	0.83%	120	111		10
Chris Francoeur	0.59%	169	126		16
Chris Korte	0.47%	213	151		66
Cole Hammer	1.08%	93	71		66
Connor Creasy	0.24%	417	351		91
Cooper Dossey	1.22%	82	46		91
Cristobal Del Solar	0.49%	204	126		32
D.A. Points	0.13%	769	351		142
Daniel Summerhays	0.62%	161	126		109
David Kocher	0.56%	179	161		66
David Lingmerth	0.33%	303	126		47
Davis Lamb	0.67%	149	91		16
Davis Shore	1.05%	95	71		10
Derek Hitchner	0.74%	135	126		32
Doc Redman	1.33%	75	41		4
Domenico Geminiani	0.21%	476	351		47
Drew Nesbitt	0.49%	204	151		135
Dylan Menante	1.24%	81	67		32
Fabian Gomez	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Higgs	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henrik Norlander	0.55%	182	111		109
Hunter Eichhorn	1.22%	82	51		66
Hunter Wolcott	0.65%	154	101		109
Ian Gilligan	0.98%	102	51		66
Ian Holt	0.83%	120	71		16
Jack Maguire	0.41%	244	151		109
Jackson Buchanan	0.55%	182	126		153
Jackson Van Paris	0.47%	213	126		142
Jacob Solomon	0.46%	217	126		91
James Nicholas	1.16%	86	81		91
James Song	0.16%	625	351		153
Jay Card	0.57%	175	111		109
Jayce Hargrove	0.10%	1000	351		124
Jeff Overton	0.21%	476	351		149
Jeremy Gandon	1.33%	75	67		16
Jeremy Paul	0.55%	182	111		1
Joe Weiler	0.83%	120	111		124
John Marshall Butler	0.95%	105	111		91
John Pak	1.07%	93	81		4
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.94%	106	51		32
Jorge Garcia	0.47%	213	161		32
Joseph Bramlett	1.07%	93	56		124
Joshua Creel	0.34%	294	161		47
Julian Suri	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	109	-0.1	BetMGM: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Justin Hastings	0.53%	189	161		142
Justin Suh	0.73%	137	91		66
Kyle Westmoreland	0.92%	109	111		91
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.35%	286	151		47
Levi Valadez	0.08%	1250	201		153
Logan McAllister	0.64%	156	161		16
Luke Gutschewski	0.52%	192	176		66
Luke List	0.55%	182	111		47
Marshall Meisel	0.34%	294	151		124
Martin Laird	0.70%	143	111		47
Mason Andersen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	142	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	0.79%	127	111		32
Matt NeSmith	0.52%	192	141		124
Matthew Anderson	0.41%	244	126		124
Matthew Riedel	0.38%	263	161		149
Max Green	0.15%	667	126		91
Maxwell Moldovan	0.90%	111	111		16
Michael Feagles	0.61%	164	161		135
Michael Johnson	1.49%	67	46		66
Michael Thompson	0.29%	345	126		66
Miles Russell	0.79%	127	81		91
Mitchell Meissner	1.08%	93	67		142
Myles Creighton	0.39%	256	151		66
Nicholas Infanti	0.42%	238	201		124
Nick Gabrelcik	0.86%	116	81		91
Nicolo Galletti	0.85%	118	91		109
Noah Goodwin	0.81%	123	111		2
Norman Xiong	0.50%	200	151		66
Peter Kuest	0.51%	196	161		66
Petr Hruby	0.60%	167	126		91
Phichaksn Maichon	0.45%	222	161		32
Philip Knowles	0.43%	233	161		47
Preston Summerhays	0.43%	233	161		32
Rayhan Thomas	0.75%	133	126		16
Rhein Gibson	0.36%	278	161		16
Ricardo Celia	0.47%	213	201		16
Rick Lamb	0.72%	139	111		4
Rob Oppenheim	0.39%	256	126		109
Robbie Higgins	0.34%	294	161		135
Robby Shelton	0.61%	164	126		10
Roger Sloan	0.73%	137	111		16
Ross Steelman	0.99%	101	81		10
Russell Knox	0.62%	161	111		91
Ryan Blaum	0.44%	227	126		91
Ryan Brehm	0.56%	179	161		149
Ryan Burnett	0.66%	152	126		66
Ryan Sullivan	0.32%	313	201		124
Ryo Ishikawa	1.23%	81	81		66
Sam Choi	0.44%	227	201		4
Sandy Scott	1.39%	72	67		47
Scott Gutschewski	0.48%	208	176		32
Sebastian Cappelen	0.35%	286	201		91
Seung-Yul Noh	1.01%	99	51		66
Stuart Macdonald	0.54%	185	126		109
Taylor Dickson	0.59%	169	111		66
Taylor Montgomery	0.91%	110	81		66
Theo Humphrey	0.74%	135	126		4
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.64%	156	126		135
Travis Trace	1.20%	83	111	0.30%	91	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	1.18%	85	71		47
Trevor Cone	0.80%	125	67		32
Trey Winstead	0.40%	250	151		47
Troy Merritt	0.41%	244	111		109
Turk Pettit	0.63%	159	126		47
Tyler Duncan	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	109	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.29%	345	201		66
Tyler Wilkes	0.40%	250	201		47
Tyson Alexander	0.47%	213	151		149
Vicente Marzilio	0.40%	250	161		16
Wil Bateman	0.48%	208	161		142
Will Cannon	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.56%	179	111		124
Will Gordon	0.60%	167	126		135
William Nottingham	0.42%	238	201		91
Wilson Furr	0.99%	101	111	0.10%	153	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	0.74%	135	111		109
Zack Fischer	0.34%	294	161		16

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hayden Buckley	1.63%	61	111	0.70%	38	-2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Dylan Menante	2.62%	38	46	0.50%	38	-2	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Travis Trace	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	34	-2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Travis Trace	1.20%	83	111	0.30%	91	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hayden Buckley	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	32	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Fabian Gomez	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	32	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Harry Higgs	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	47	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Mason Andersen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	142	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tyler Duncan	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	109	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.