Simulation Results: Tulum Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.02% 5000 251 39
Adam Long 0.34% 294 301 18
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.15% 87 46 18
Alvaro Ortiz 1.40% 71 81 0.20% 29 -0.2 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andi Xu 0.00% 10000 100
Andrew Kozan 0.02% 5000 100
Andrew Landry 0.02% 5000 1501 118
Ashton Van Horne 0.04% 2500 501 87
Augusto Nunez 1.54% 65 61 29
Austin Cook 0.44% 227 101 39
Austin Greaser 0.84% 119 126 67
Austin Hitt 1.32% 76 101 0.30% 135 -0.3 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 1.76% 57 51 18
Barend Botha 0.55% 182 126 100
Ben Taylor 0.96% 104 81 57
Billy Kennerly 0.33% 303 201 3
Billy Tom Sargent 0.10% 1000 751 38
Blades Brown 2.35% 43 41 141
Blaine Hale 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Berry 0.12% 833 501 135
Brandon Harkins 0.21% 476 251 143
Brandon Hoelzer 0.09% 1111 501 87
Brendon Jelley 0.13% 769 501 87
Brent Grant 0.12% 833 75
Bruno Marques 0.00% 10000 1001 149
Bryce Lewis 0.38% 263 301 135
Bryson Nimmer 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 1 31.25 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb VanArragon 0.57% 175 301 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Champ 1.10% 91 81 15
Carl Yuan 0.46% 217 176 50
Carter Jenkins 0.37% 270 176 64
Chandler Blanchet 2.28% 44 34 12
Charles Huntzinger 0.04% 2500 751 50
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 70 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Baker 0.22% 455 401 75
Clay Feagler 0.15% 667 201 152
Cody Blick 0.23% 435 201 100
Cody Gribble 0.12% 833 100
Cole Hammer 0.46% 217 81 128
Cole Sherwood 1.81% 55 51 57
Cooper Dossey 0.61% 164 251 0.20% 69 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Musselman 0.04% 2500 501 150
D.A. Points 0.01% 10000 751 151
Dalton Ward 0.42% 238 501 0.20% 128 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan McCarthy 0.37% 270 276 100
David Kocher 0.26% 385 251 87
Davis Chatfield 1.42% 70 51 10
Davis Shore 0.74% 135 81 25
Dawson Armstrong 0.19% 526 276 50
Derek Bard 0.67% 149 301 0.30% 73 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Menante 0.38% 263 301 18
Eduardo Garcia Cepeda 0.00% 10000 751
Emilio Gonzalez 0.77% 130 67 39
Etienne Papineau 0.17% 588 401 75
Fabian Gomez 0.54% 185 151 57
Gavin Cohen 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 87 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grant Hirschman 0.08% 1250 401 75
Harry Hillier 0.36% 278 151 29
Ian Holt 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 100 -0.2 QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Isidro Benitez 0.01% 10000 601 118
Jacob Solomon 0.06% 1667 751 128
James Nicholas 0.99% 101 67 75
Jeff Overton 0.02% 5000 1001 146
Jeremy Gandon 1.58% 63 41 18
Jin Chung 0.03% 3333 751 143
Joe Weiler 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 29 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Augenstein 0.10% 1000 501 141
John Greco 0.01% 10000 1001 50
John VanDerLaan 1.34% 75 81 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Johnny Keefer 5.56% 18 15 73
Jonas Baumgartner 0.04% 2500 501 100
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.59% 169 126 118
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 0.17% 588 101 75
Josh Teater 0.59% 169 81 100
Joshua Creel 0.94% 106 81 62
Julian Etulain 0.26% 385 151 64
Julian Suri 1.16% 86 67 118
Justin Suh 1.63% 61 41 128
Keenan Huskey 0.16% 625 501 71
Kensei Hirata 2.50% 40 23 12
Kevin Dougherty 0.86% 116 111 62
KK Limbhasut 0.17% 588 301 87
Kyle Cottam 0.11% 909 501 118
Kyle Westmoreland 0.79% 127 101 152
Logan McAllister 0.76% 132 81 50
Luis Gerardo Garza 0.25% 400 151 72
Luke Gifford 0.02% 5000 118
Luke Guthrie 0.04% 2500 501 146
M.J. Daffue 0.55% 182 151 100
Marcelo Rozo 0.59% 169 126 29
Marcus Plunkett 0.06% 1667 301 143
Mark Goetz 0.09% 1111 401 100
Matt Atkins 0.37% 270 501 0.20% 128 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.44% 227 126 44
Michael Johnson 0.76% 132 111 29
Miles Russell 0.16% 625 91 87
Mitchell Meissner 3.72% 27 34 0.80% 6 -0.8 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Myles Creighton 1.25% 80 81 44
Nate Stember 0.53% 189 176
Neal Shipley 3.53% 28 29 0.10% 18 -0.1 QuinnBet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Gabrelcik 1.27% 79 61 44
Nicolo Galletti 0.40% 250 201 148
Owen Stamper 0.54% 185 501 0.30% 100 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Cover 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Welch 0.37% 270 201 25
Paul Haley 0.06% 1667 2001 66
Peter Kuest 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 118 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.23% 435 301 100
Pontus Nyholm 0.87% 115 111 44
Raul Pereda 0.04% 2500 401 25
Rayhan Thomas 0.49% 204 151 100
Rhein Gibson 0.16% 625 301 67
Richy Werenski 0.94% 106 151 0.30% 87 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb 1.81% 55 29 87
Robby Shelton 2.66% 38 34 118
Robert Streb 0.15% 667 401 44
Roberto Diaz 0.48% 208 111 57
Roger Sloan 0.81% 123 126 50
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.38% 263 101 12
Russell Knox 0.89% 112 51 49
Ryan Armour 0.16% 625 501 25
Ryan Blaum 0.64% 156 101 12
Ryan Brehm 0.12% 833 401 128
Ryan Burnett 0.25% 400 301 128
Ryan Hall 0.07% 1429 501 100
Ryan McCormick 0.75% 133 201 0.30% 10 -0.3 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Bennett 0.30% 333 276 75
Samuel Anderson 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 39 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sandy Scott 0.53% 189 126 100
Santiago De La Fuente 0.79% 127 101 87
Sebastian Cappelen 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 12 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seth Reeves 0.12% 833 501 75
Seungtaek Lee 1.72% 58 41 3
Seung-Yul Noh 1.17% 85 67 152
Shad Tuten 1.00% 100 101 3
Spencer Levin 0.12% 833 501 135
Spencer Ralston 0.29% 345 301
Stuart Macdonald 0.13% 769 301 2
T.J. Vogel 0.63% 159 101 100
Tanner Gore 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 75 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tanner Napier 0.08% 1250 401 87
Tano Goya 0.28% 357 301 135
Thomas Walsh 0.96% 104 81 87
Tom Whitney 0.88% 114 151 0.20% 57 -0.2 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Trace 0.03% 3333 401 75
Trent Phillips 0.34% 294 151 29
Trey Winstead 1.72% 58 36 29
Tyler Duncan 1.02% 98 81 6
Tyson Alexander 1.87% 53 51 75
Will Cannon 0.20% 500 501 29
Wilson Furr 0.62% 161 276 0.30% 12 -0.3 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yi Cao 0.07% 1429 87
Zach Bauchou 1.69% 59 56 8
Zach James 0.65% 154 126 118
Zack Fischer 0.32% 313 126 75
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 29 100

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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