Simulation Results: Tulum Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.31%	76	61		104
Alejandro Madariaga	0.10%	1000	251		65
Alex Vogelsong	0.05%	2000	201		40
Alistair Docherty	2.44%	41	23
Alvaro Ortiz	0.89%	112	111		33
Andrew Kozan	0.07%	1429	301		50
Augusto Nunez	0.48%	208	126		80
Austin Duncan	0.05%	2000	251		50
Austin Hitt	0.35%	286	161		80
Barend Botha	0.60%	167	111		80
Ben Carr	0.52%	192	201		8
Ben Kohles	1.57%	64	46		143
Ben Martin	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	143	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman	0.98%	102	56		80
Ben Taylor	0.81%	123	81		4
Billy Tom Sargent	0.40%	250	141		104
Blades Brown	1.48%	68	26		2
Blaine Hale	0.26%	385	226		4
Braden Thornberry	0.21%	476	301		124
Brandon Berry	0.05%	2000	601		135
Brandon Harkins	0.07%	1429	351		46
Brandon Matthews	0.02%	5000	601		155
Brandon Wu	0.11%	909	301		115
Brett Stegmaier	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	130	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett White	0.23%	435	301		150
Bronson Burgoon	2.71%	37	17		27
Bruno Marques	0.00%	10000	1001		147
Bryce Lewis	0.17%	588	351		124
Bryson Nimmer	0.30%	333	141		93
Caleb VanArragon	2.86%	35	34		13
Cameron Champ	1.97%	51	56	0.20%	115	-0.2	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Huss	0.02%	5000	601		75
Carl Yuan	0.46%	217	161		75
Carson Bacha	1.67%	60	67	0.20%	130	-0.2	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Young	0.95%	105	19		40
Chad Sewell	0.86%	116	201	0.40%	104	-0.4	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chan Kim	0.74%	135	67		57
Chez Reavie	0.34%	294	201		25
Chris Francoeur	0.12%	833	351		33
Cole Anderson	0.04%	2500	751		67
Cole Hammer	1.56%	64	46		54
Cole Sherwood	0.96%	104	56		46
Cooper Dossey	2.10%	48	29		68
Cristobal Del Solar	0.19%	526	126		93
Daniel Summerhays	0.20%	500	301		61
David Kocher	0.12%	833	301		104
Davis Lamb	0.94%	106	71		80
Davis Shore	1.02%	98	61		7
Derek Hitchner	0.42%	238	251		40
Dillon Stewart	0.17%	588	501		124
Doc Redman	0.86%	116	76		13
Drew Nesbitt	0.35%	286	226		93
Dylan Menante	0.83%	120	201	0.30%	1	37.5	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eugenio Chacarra	2.39%	42	17		9
Fabian Gomez	0.47%	213	51		22
Greyson Sigg	1.56%	64	41		135
Hayden Buckley	1.43%	70	76	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Springer	1.83%	55	51		61
Hunter Eichhorn	2.62%	38	26		93
Jack Maguire	0.50%	200	141		135
Jackson Buchanan	0.29%	345	201		150
Jackson Van Paris	0.66%	152	67		64
Jacob Solomon	0.07%	1429	601		22
James Nicholas	0.74%	135	91		80
James Song	0.02%	5000	1251		153
Jay Card	0.59%	169	111		80
Jeff Overton	0.15%	667	601		80
Jeremy Gandon	2.91%	34	23		60
Jeremy Paul	0.96%	104	67		135
Jim Herman	0.02%	5000	751		124
Joe Weiler	0.10%	1000	276		115
John Marshall Butler	0.15%	667	301		68
John Pak	0.94%	106	67		13
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.09%	92	301	0.80%	33	-0.8	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jorge Garcia	0.03%	3333	351		33
Joseph Bramlett	1.63%	61	41		4
Josh Teater	0.14%	714	226		104
Joshua Creel	0.06%	1667	501		80
Julian Suri	0.38%	263	161		124
Justin Hastings	0.16%	625	201		68
Justin Suh	0.38%	263	81		50
Kyle Westmoreland	0.21%	476	126		143
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.07%	1429	201		104
Logan McAllister	0.30%	333	201		135
Luke Gutschewski	0.73%	137	176	0.20%	130	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke List	0.21%	476	201		57
Lunden Esterline	0.00%	10000	501		147
Marshall Meisel	0.31%	323	301		135
Mason Andersen	1.28%	78	67		93
Matt Atkins	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	27	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith	0.49%	204	176		115
Matthew Anderson	0.45%	222	151		143
Matthew Riedel	0.18%	556	301		130
Maxwell Moldovan	0.38%	263	176		33
Michael Feagles	0.17%	588	501		27
Michael Johnson	1.98%	51	34		13
Mitchell Meissner	1.97%	51	34		75
Nicholas Infanti	0.04%	2500	501		40
Nick Gabrelcik	0.83%	120	81		19
Nick Hardy	0.54%	185	176		57
Nicolo Galletti	1.55%	65	101	0.60%	9	-0.6	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Noah Goodwin	1.49%	67	46		68
Owen Stamper	0.36%	278	201		135
Paul Barjon	0.01%	10000	1501		61
Paul Peterson	1.12%	89	61		93
Peter Kuest	0.62%	161	251	0.20%	93	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.17%	588	276		27
Philip Knowles	0.25%	400	301		93
Preston Summerhays	0.09%	1111	501		33
R.J. Manke	0.14%	714	501		68
Rayhan Thomas	0.17%	588	276		135
Rhein Gibson	0.23%	435	351		22
Ricardo Celia	0.24%	417	501		9
Rick Lamb	0.75%	133	126		25
Rob Oppenheim	0.10%	1000	251		9
Robbie Higgins	0.04%	2500	501		80
Robby Shelton	0.35%	286	201		104
Robert Garrigus	0.03%	3333	251		115
Roger Sloan	0.69%	145	91		27
Ross Steelman	0.44%	227	126		33
Ryan Blaum	0.34%	294	201		46
Ryan Brehm	0.15%	667	401		80
Ryan Burnett	0.28%	357	276		66
Ryan Sullivan	0.05%	2000	601		147
Ryo Ishikawa	0.63%	159	111		19
Sam Choi	0.06%	1667	751		93
Samuel Anderson	0.27%	370	251		46
Sandy Scott	2.04%	49	51	0.10%	3	0.575	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Gutschewski	0.19%	526	276		104
Sebastian Cappelen	0.20%	500	351		115
Seung-Yul Noh	1.04%	96	71		115
Shad Tuten	0.68%	147	91		93
Spencer Levin	0.05%	2000	1001		130
Stephen Franken	0.03%	3333	751		50
Stuart Macdonald	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	27	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	0.60%	167	111		54
Taylor Montgomery	0.97%	103	34		155
Theo Humphrey	0.09%	1111	501		104
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.45%	222	126
Tom Whitney	0.42%	238	251		68
Travis Trace	0.73%	137	301	0.40%	13	-0.4	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	1.66%	60	41		115
Trey Mullinax	0.60%	167	41		75
Trey Winstead	0.05%	2000	251		154
Troy Merritt	0.41%	244	126		124
Turk Pettit	0.10%	1000	151		80
Tyler Duncan	1.09%	92	141	0.40%	40	-0.4	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.16%	625	401		104
Vicente Marzilio	0.14%	714	351		75
Will Cannon	0.82%	122	201	0.30%	40	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.80%	125	161	0.20%	19	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Gordon	0.27%	370	251		115
Wilson Furr	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	152	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	0.98%	102	91		104
Zac Blair	2.54%	39	29		13
Zack Fischer	0.19%	526	201		54

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.95%	105	71		119
Alejandro Madariaga	0.40%	250	176		19
Alex Vogelsong	0.29%	345	151		35
Alistair Docherty	1.28%	78	46
Alvaro Ortiz	0.77%	130	81		119
Andrew Kozan	0.34%	294	201		60
Augusto Nunez	0.69%	145	101		129
Austin Duncan	0.27%	370	151		35
Austin Hitt	0.51%	196	111		35
Barend Botha	0.66%	152	86		78
Ben Carr	0.72%	139	111		19
Ben Kohles	1.05%	95	56		60
Ben Martin	0.67%	149	111		132
Ben Silverman	0.95%	105	67		35
Ben Taylor	0.76%	132	81		11
Billy Tom Sargent	0.57%	175	101		78
Blades Brown	1.01%	99	46		19
Blaine Hale	0.50%	200	126		5
Braden Thornberry	0.42%	238	161		132
Brandon Berry	0.29%	345	226		143
Brandon Harkins	0.33%	303	151		3
Brandon Matthews	0.18%	556	251		155
Brandon Wu	0.42%	238	161		143
Brett Stegmaier	0.73%	137	111		143
Brett White	0.49%	204	161		143
Bronson Burgoon	1.45%	69	36		60
Bruno Marques	0.03%	3333	351		151
Bryce Lewis	0.46%	217	161		60
Bryson Nimmer	0.52%	192	126		132
Caleb VanArragon	1.31%	76	46		1
Cameron Champ	1.08%	93	61		35
Cameron Huss	0.20%	500	251		119
Carl Yuan	0.59%	169	111		78
Carson Bacha	1.03%	97	67		96
Carson Young	0.74%	135	46		35
Chad Sewell	0.89%	112	91		96
Chan Kim	0.84%	119	71		11
Chez Reavie	0.50%	200	111		19
Chris Francoeur	0.41%	244	161		35
Cole Anderson	0.27%	370	226		35
Cole Hammer	0.97%	103	67		11
Cole Sherwood	0.87%	115	71		19
Cooper Dossey	1.14%	88	51		60
Cristobal Del Solar	0.43%	233	101		119
Daniel Summerhays	0.49%	204	161		60
David Kocher	0.32%	313	201		132
Davis Lamb	0.97%	103	81		96
Davis Shore	0.85%	118	71		19
Derek Hitchner	0.62%	161	126		35
Dillon Stewart	0.45%	222	181		96
Doc Redman	0.76%	132	71		35
Drew Nesbitt	0.52%	192	126		96
Dylan Menante	0.75%	133	111		19
Eugenio Chacarra	1.46%	68	36		19
Fabian Gomez	0.70%	143	81		60
Greyson Sigg	1.22%	82	56		96
Hayden Buckley	0.98%	102	71		78
Hayden Springer	1.03%	97	61		11
Hunter Eichhorn	1.24%	81	46		96
Jack Maguire	0.79%	127	91		143
Jackson Buchanan	0.47%	213	126		60
Jackson Van Paris	0.67%	149	81		96
Jacob Solomon	0.37%	270	226		1
James Nicholas	0.82%	122	81		60
James Song	0.16%	625	301		132
Jay Card	0.75%	133	86		78
Jeff Overton	0.44%	227	226		78
Jeremy Gandon	1.47%	68	51		60
Jeremy Paul	0.97%	103	81		129
Jim Herman	0.22%	455	251		119
Joe Weiler	0.43%	233	151		132
John Marshall Butler	0.40%	250	161		35
John Pak	0.82%	122	71		35
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.82%	122	67		60
Jorge Garcia	0.22%	455	201		96
Joseph Bramlett	1.03%	97	56		35
Josh Teater	0.43%	233	151		78
Joshua Creel	0.30%	333	201		96
Julian Suri	0.54%	185	111		132
Justin Hastings	0.40%	250	111		60
Justin Suh	0.68%	147	86		96
Kyle Westmoreland	0.55%	182	101		150
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.39%	256	151		78
Logan McAllister	0.49%	204	126		151
Luke Gutschewski	0.71%	141	111		96
Luke List	0.45%	222	151		35
Lunden Esterline	0.03%	3333	251		143
Marshall Meisel	0.51%	196	161		96
Mason Andersen	0.93%	108	71		132
Matt Atkins	0.67%	149	111		19
Matt NeSmith	0.72%	139	111		132
Matthew Anderson	0.76%	132	101		78
Matthew Riedel	0.40%	250	161		78
Maxwell Moldovan	0.63%	159	111		78
Michael Feagles	0.44%	227	181		35
Michael Johnson	1.17%	85	56		19
Mitchell Meissner	1.16%	86	61		60
Nicholas Infanti	0.29%	345	201		78
Nick Gabrelcik	0.80%	125	81		19
Nick Hardy	0.73%	137	111		78
Nicolo Galletti	1.01%	99	81		5
Noah Goodwin	0.90%	111	61		96
Owen Stamper	0.54%	185	126		96
Paul Barjon	0.19%	526	351		35
Paul Peterson	0.93%	108	67		60
Peter Kuest	0.71%	141	101		119
Phichaksn Maichon	0.42%	238	126		35
Philip Knowles	0.44%	227	161		119
Preston Summerhays	0.37%	270	181		35
R.J. Manke	0.47%	213	201		35
Rayhan Thomas	0.47%	213	151		60
Rhein Gibson	0.43%	233	161		35
Ricardo Celia	0.43%	233	181		96
Rick Lamb	0.86%	116	91		119
Rob Oppenheim	0.33%	303	151		5
Robbie Higgins	0.21%	476	201		96
Robby Shelton	0.54%	185	111		35
Robert Garrigus	0.23%	435	251		78
Roger Sloan	0.65%	154	81		3
Ross Steelman	0.57%	175	111		35
Ryan Blaum	0.68%	147	126		5
Ryan Brehm	0.43%	233	201		19
Ryan Burnett	0.58%	172	151		35
Ryan Sullivan	0.29%	345	226		151
Ryo Ishikawa	0.85%	118	86		5
Sam Choi	0.31%	323	226		129
Samuel Anderson	0.50%	200	126		96
Sandy Scott	1.31%	76	67		11
Scott Gutschewski	0.37%	270	151		78
Sebastian Cappelen	0.40%	250	161		96
Seung-Yul Noh	0.81%	123	81		60
Shad Tuten	0.72%	139	81		119
Spencer Levin	0.33%	303	226		35
Stephen Franken	0.26%	385	226		19
Stuart Macdonald	0.71%	141	101		11
Taylor Dickson	0.77%	130	86		78
Taylor Montgomery	0.84%	119	56		143
Theo Humphrey	0.38%	263	201		35
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.59%	169
Tom Whitney	0.56%	179	126		11
Travis Trace	0.86%	116	111		19
Trent Phillips	1.02%	98	67		132
Trey Mullinax	0.65%	154	67		96
Trey Winstead	0.31%	323	151		151
Troy Merritt	0.56%	179	101		96
Turk Pettit	0.34%	294	151		5
Tyler Duncan	0.87%	115	86		19
Tyler Leach	0.43%	233	161		78
Vicente Marzilio	0.36%	278	161		96
Will Cannon	0.76%	132	111		60
Will Chandler	0.85%	118	111		60
Will Gordon	0.60%	167	126		78
Wilson Furr	1.02%	98	86		155
Yuta Sugiura	0.80%	125	81		132
Zac Blair	1.41%	71	41		19
Zack Fischer	0.41%	244	151		11

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.09%	92	301	0.80%	33	-2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Nicolo Galletti	1.55%	65	101	0.60%	9	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tyler Duncan	1.09%	92	141	0.40%	40	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.