Simulation Results: Korn Ferry Tour Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 5.68% 18 17 18
Alistair Docherty 1.66% 60 41 24
Alvaro Ortiz 1.31% 76 76 65
Austin Hitt 1.78% 56 46 70
Austin Smotherman 1.33% 75 41 41
Barend Botha 0.88% 114 71 2
Ben Taylor 1.06% 94 71 31
Blades Brown 0.96% 104 81 18
Blaine Hale 0.17% 588 201 63
Bryce Lewis 0.18% 556 151 58
Bryson Nimmer 0.08% 1250 401 61
Caleb VanArragon 0.57% 175 61 12
Chandler Blanchet 4.19% 24 21 1
Christo Lamprecht 2.40% 42 34 8
Cole Hammer 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 37 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cole Sherwood 0.53% 189 201 46
Cooper Dossey 1.13% 88 67 11
Davis Chatfield 2.26% 44 34 18
Davis Shore 1.65% 61 71 0.20% 55 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Menante 1.27% 79 91 0.20% 31 -0.2 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu 3.74% 27 51 1.80% 31 -1.8 Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez 2.65% 38 36 31
Hank Lebioda 0.98% 102 67 6
Harry Hillier 0.19% 526 181 67
Ian Holt 1.17% 85 67 46
James Nicholas 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Kang 0.95% 105 71 24
Jeremy Gandon 0.67% 149 111 12
Joe Weiler 0.37% 270 201 3
John VanDerLaan 1.61% 62 41 46
Johnny Keefer 6.04% 17 17 0.20% 12 -0.2 BetMGM: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.39% 256 126 46
Josh Teater 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 24 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julian Suri 0.82% 122 67 46
Justin Suh 1.15% 87 46 31
Kensei Hirata 0.71% 141 67 68
Kevin Dougherty 1.04% 96 56 60
Kyle Westmoreland 0.43% 233 176 63
Logan McAllister 1.05% 95 81 61
Marcelo Rozo 0.62% 161 101 46
Matthew Anderson 0.14% 714 276 46
Michael Johnson 1.59% 63 61 65
Mitchell Meissner 1.32% 76 56 37
Myles Creighton 0.46% 217 181 43
Neal Shipley 1.33% 75 36 3
Nick Gabrelcik 0.57% 175 81 69
Nicolo Galletti 1.42% 70 61 8
Patrick Welch 1.32% 76 126 0.50% 70 -0.5 William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Kuest 0.88% 114 67 37
Pierceson Coody 2.91% 34 19 12
Pontus Nyholm 2.26% 44 36 54
Rick Lamb 0.39% 256 126 18
Rob Oppenheim 0.24% 417 276 70
Robby Shelton 1.86% 54 41 58
Ross Steelman 1.91% 52 46 24
Russell Knox 0.69% 145 111 55
Samuel Anderson 0.35% 286 176 43
Sandy Scott 0.30% 333 126 8
Sebastian Cappelen 0.23% 435 201 12
Seonghyeon Kim 1.45% 69 56 12
Seungtaek Lee 4.69% 21 34 1.80% 24 -1.8 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh 2.12% 47 51 0.20% 18 -0.2 BetMGM: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shad Tuten 0.56% 179 91 41
Stuart Macdonald 0.32% 313 131 6
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.67% 149 91 24
Trent Phillips 1.62% 62 36 5
Trey Winstead 0.98% 102 101 46
Tyler Duncan 1.22% 82 41 24
Tyson Alexander 0.34% 294 301 73
Wilson Furr 1.90% 53 51 37
Zach Bauchou 1.75% 57 29 43
Zach James 0.46% 217 111 55
Zecheng Dou 5.82% 17 21 1.10% 18 -1.1 Spreadex: 20/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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