Simulation Results: Suncoast Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.92%	109	67		53
Alex Price	0.00%	10000			141
Alistair Docherty	2.25%	44	36		19
Alvaro Ortiz	0.43%	233	181		26
Ashton Van Horne	0.07%	1429	501		77
Augusto Nunez	0.35%	286	176		28
Austin Hitt	0.37%	270	151		77
Barend Botha	0.77%	130	81		121
Ben Carr	0.97%	103	176	0.40%	128	-0.4	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Kohles	1.43%	70	41		96
Ben Martin	0.78%	128	161	0.20%	69	-0.2	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman	0.80%	125	67		38
Ben Taylor	0.56%	179	126		28
Billy Tom Sargent	0.50%	200	131		71
Blades Brown	2.62%	38	19		137
Blaine Hale	0.21%	476	301		77
Braden Thornberry	0.29%	345	251		77
Brandon Matthews	0.04%	2500	501		134
Brandon Wu	0.17%	588	251		77
Brett Stegmaier	0.37%	270	251		42
Brett White	0.25%	400	201		109
Bryce Lewis	0.43%	233	276	0.10%	150	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.36%	278	251		77
Caleb VanArragon	1.51%	66	67		4
Cameron Champ	0.80%	125	81		9
Carl Pettersson	0.00%	10000	1501		109
Carl Yuan	0.47%	213	131		96
Carson Bacha	0.88%	114	91		19
Carson Young	1.69%	59	34		87
Chad Sewell	0.58%	172	276	0.20%	28	-0.2	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chan Kim	1.09%	92	56		126
Chez Reavie	0.33%	303	326		36
Christian Salzer	0.07%	1429	751
Cole Hammer	0.61%	164	81		4
Cole Sherwood	1.07%	93	67		42
Cooper Dossey	1.57%	64	51		9
Cooper Musselman	0.73%	137	226	0.30%	96	-0.3	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cristobal Del Solar	0.43%	233	126		76
Daniel Summerhays	0.28%	357	301		71
David Skinns	1.55%	65	51		150
Davis Lamb	1.59%	63	56		77
Davis Shore	1.09%	92	81		96
Derek Hitchner	0.35%	286	201		42
Dillon Stewart	0.15%	667	751		96
Doc Redman	1.09%	92	61		62
Drew Nesbitt	0.18%	556	326		38
Dylan Menante	0.73%	137	176	0.20%	96	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez	0.44%	227	151		42
Garett Reband	0.05%	2000	601		121
Greyson Sigg	0.52%	192	67		13
Harry Higgs	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	38	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	0.96%	104	86		28
Hayden Springer	1.26%	79	61		19
Hunter Eichhorn	1.89%	53	36		8
Ian Gilligan	1.63%	61	29		4
Ian Holt	2.47%	40	34		53
J.J. Grey	0.04%	2500	1001		143
Jack Maguire	0.60%	167	151		51
Jackson Buchanan	0.36%	278	181		71
Jackson Van Paris	0.86%	116	81		66
James Nicholas	0.47%	213	101		19
James Song	0.02%	5000	1251		96
Jay Card	0.22%	455	201		2
Jeff Overton	0.18%	556	401		77
Jeremy Gandon	1.47%	68	67		1
Jeremy Paul	0.84%	119	101		42
Joe Weiler	0.22%	455	226		137
John Marshall Butler	0.23%	435	276		77
John Pak	2.14%	47	46		75
Jonathan Byrd	0.23%	435	151		77
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.69%	59	41		128
Joseph Bramlett	2.50%	40	34		115
Josh Teater	0.20%	500	251		77
Julian Suri	0.49%	204	151		96
Justin Hastings	0.37%	270	201		143
Justin Suh	0.56%	179	81		58
Kaito Onishi	0.31%	323	276		150
Kevin Dougherty	0.24%	417	176		96
Kevin Velo	0.50%	200	151		143
Kyle Westmoreland	0.34%	294	111		109
Lanto Griffin	1.30%	77	71		104
Logan McAllister	0.50%	200	131		128
Lucas Gimenez	0.01%	10000	601		135
Luke Gutschewski	0.81%	123	226	0.40%	51	-0.4	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke List	0.31%	323	276		66
Marshall Meisel	0.23%	435	501		38
Martin Laird	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	150	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Andersen	1.25%	80	81		28
Matt Atkins	0.23%	435	301		9
Matt NeSmith	0.46%	217	501	0.30%	42	-0.3	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.62%	161	126		53
Matthew Riedel	0.22%	455	301		96
Maxwell Moldovan	0.54%	185	201		62
Michael Feagles	0.21%	476	401		77
Michael Johnson	2.60%	38	31		58
Michael Visacki	0.04%	2500	751		148
Miles Russell	1.26%	79	41		62
Mitchell Meissner	0.59%	169	101		2
Myles Creighton	0.53%	189	161		62
Nicholas Infanti	0.04%	2500	501		109
Nick Gabrelcik	0.38%	263	101		17
Nicolo Galletti	0.82%	122	126		13
Noah Goodwin	1.45%	69	67		19
Noah Kumar	0.01%	10000	751		109
Norman Xiong	0.48%	208	161		77
Paul Barjon	0.04%	2500	1001		143
Peter Kuest	0.20%	500	301		13
Phichaksn Maichon	0.26%	385	226		121
Preston Summerhays	0.10%	1000	501		66
Raj Ghosh	0.16%	625	351		149
Rayhan Thomas	0.33%	303	201		137
Rhein Gibson	0.31%	323	301		77
Ricardo Celia	0.14%	714	501		42
Rick Lamb	0.61%	164	151		28
Rob Oppenheim	0.22%	455	201		121
Robby Shelton	0.59%	169	126		115
Roger Sloan	0.73%	137	91		42
Ross Steelman	0.61%	164	101		121
Russell Knox	0.56%	179	101		115
Ryan Blaum	0.18%	556	301		28
Ryan Brehm	0.18%	556	351		96
Ryan Burnett	0.20%	500	351		36
Ryan Sullivan	0.08%	1250	501		109
Ryo Ishikawa	0.94%	106	101		77
Sam Choi	0.09%	1111	1001		69
Samuel Anderson	0.23%	435	401		58
Sandy Scott	1.28%	78	71		13
Scott Gutschewski	0.21%	476	251		71
Sebastian Cappelen	0.18%	556	301		115
Seung-Yul Noh	1.20%	83	67		96
Shad Tuten	0.89%	112	91		77
Spencer Levin	0.11%	909	751		121
Stuart Macdonald	0.83%	120	151	0.20%	128	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	0.62%	161	111		58
Taylor Montgomery	1.90%	53	23		121
Theo Humphrey	0.17%	588	401		115
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.80%	125	101		135
Tom Whitney	0.66%	152	181	0.10%	150	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Cocha	0.06%	1667	751		128
Trace Crowe	1.17%	85	67		4
Trent Phillips	0.96%	104	67		19
Trevor Cone	0.72%	139	101		26
Trey Winstead	0.10%	1000	251		150
Tyler Duncan	0.50%	200	201		28
Tyler Leach	0.23%	435	351		77
Tyson Alexander	0.33%	303	301		143
Vicente Marzilio	0.33%	303	326		137
Wil Bateman	0.61%	164	181	0.10%	77	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Cannon	0.17%	588			17
Will Chandler	0.49%	204	201		9
Will Gordon	0.30%	333	201		77
Wilson Furr	0.98%	102	176	0.40%			Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	1.08%	93	81		53
Zac Blair	1.85%	54	41		19
Zack Fischer	0.36%	278	201		141

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.77%	130	81		61
Alex Price	0.09%	1111			129
Alistair Docherty	1.55%	65	51		13
Alvaro Ortiz	0.70%	143	126		5
Ashton Van Horne	0.23%	435	251		41
Augusto Nunez	0.50%	200	111		13
Austin Hitt	0.62%	161	101		61
Barend Botha	0.73%	137	91		129
Ben Carr	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	99	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Kohles	0.96%	104	67		84
Ben Martin	0.67%	149	126		28
Ben Silverman	0.74%	135	81		84
Ben Taylor	0.55%	182	101		13
Billy Tom Sargent	0.74%	135	91		117
Blades Brown	1.61%	62	34		141
Blaine Hale	0.36%	278	151		41
Braden Thornberry	0.53%	189	151		129
Brandon Matthews	0.17%	588	251		141
Brandon Wu	0.39%	256	151		129
Brett Stegmaier	0.64%	156	151		61
Brett White	0.41%	244	151		41
Bryce Lewis	0.53%	189	141		150
Bryson Nimmer	0.61%	164	151		41
Caleb VanArragon	1.19%	84	81		5
Cameron Champ	0.73%	137	91		28
Carl Pettersson	0.08%	1250	601		129
Carl Yuan	0.60%	167	91		99
Carson Bacha	0.97%	103	81		3
Chad Sewell	0.63%	159	126		5
Chez Reavie	0.60%	167	176		61
Christian Salzer	0.23%	435	251
Cole Hammer	0.76%	132	91		99
Cole Sherwood	1.09%	92	81		61
Cooper Dossey	1.00%	100	71		41
Cooper Musselman	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	99	-0.2	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cristobal Del Solar	0.68%	147	101		84
Daniel Summerhays	0.53%	189	151		28
David Skinns	1.29%	78	71		61
Davis Lamb	1.24%	81	71		61
Davis Shore	0.85%	118	91		84
Dawson Jones	0.10%	1000	176		61
Derek Hitchner	0.46%	217	141		41
Dillon Stewart	0.31%	323	251		129
Doc Redman	0.74%	135	67		41
Drew Nesbitt	0.44%	227	201		99
Dylan Menante	0.66%	152	126		117
Fabian Gomez	0.64%	156	111		41
Garett Reband	0.18%	556	251		41
Greyson Sigg	0.53%	189	81		28
Harry Higgs	0.73%	137	126		5
Hayden Buckley	0.83%	120	81		13
Hayden Springer	1.12%	89	71		99
Hunter Eichhorn	1.11%	90	51		1
Ian Gilligan	1.33%	75	51		3
Ian Holt	1.64%	61	51		117
J.J. Grey	0.21%	476	301		129
Jack Maguire	0.61%	164	111		13
Jackson Buchanan	0.49%	204	141		5
Jackson Van Paris	0.74%	135	91		61
Jacob Solomon	0.34%	294	161		84
James Nicholas	0.67%	149	101		61
James Song	0.16%	625	301		41
Jay Card	0.37%	270	151		2
Jeff Overton	0.44%	227	176		61
Jeremy Gandon	1.04%	96	81		28
Jeremy Paul	0.87%	115	101		41
Joe Weiler	0.52%	192	141		99
John Marshall Butler	0.46%	217	151		61
John Pak	1.53%	65	67		99
Jonathan Byrd	0.38%	263	91		84
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.03%	97	67		117
Joseph Bramlett	1.23%	81	51		13
Josh Teater	0.39%	256	151		99
Julian Suri	0.54%	185	101		117
Justin Hastings	0.66%	152	151		141
Justin Suh	0.64%	156	91		61
Kaito Onishi	0.45%	222	151		117
Kevin Dougherty	0.43%	233	126		129
Kevin Velo	0.73%	137	126		141
Kyle Westmoreland	0.50%	200	101		61
Logan McAllister	0.70%	143	101		99
Lucas Gimenez	0.08%	1250	351		147
Luke Gutschewski	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	28	-0.2	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke List	0.46%	217	126		13
Marshall Meisel	0.50%	200	201		99
Martin Laird	0.57%	175	141		61
Mason Andersen	0.94%	106	91		13
Matt Atkins	0.41%	244	151		28
Matt NeSmith	0.50%	200	201		13
Matthew Anderson	0.63%	159	101		28
Matthew Riedel	0.47%	213	126		41
Maxwell Moldovan	0.58%	172	126		28
Michael Feagles	0.36%	278	161		117
Michael Johnson	1.62%	62	51		13
Michael Visacki	0.19%	526	251		149
Miles Russell	0.99%	101	67		61
Mitchell Meissner	0.82%	122	101		61
Myles Creighton	0.60%	167	126		41
Nicholas Infanti	0.20%	500	251		99
Nick Gabrelcik	0.50%	200	91		5
Nicolo Galletti	0.79%	127	101		13
Noah Goodwin	1.24%	81	81		84
Noah Kumar	0.16%	625	251		99
Norman Xiong	0.73%	137	101		84
Paul Barjon	0.18%	556	301		117
Peter Kuest	0.50%	200	151		5
Phichaksn Maichon	0.55%	182	151		41
Philip Knowles	0.25%	400	161		28
Preston Summerhays	0.33%	303	201		84
Raj Ghosh	0.39%	256	226		154
Rayhan Thomas	0.45%	222	126		150
Rhein Gibson	0.46%	217	151		41
Ricardo Celia	0.31%	323	251		41
Rick Lamb	0.73%	137	111		41
Rob Oppenheim	0.43%	233	151		99
Robby Shelton	0.84%	119	101		41
Roger Sloan	0.69%	145	91		61
Ross Steelman	0.63%	159	101		99
Russell Knox	0.64%	156	91		129
Ryan Blaum	0.37%	270	151		13
Ryan Brehm	0.45%	222	176		84
Ryan Burnett	0.34%	294	161		13
Ryan Sullivan	0.26%	385	251		99
Ryo Ishikawa	0.78%	128	91		84
Sam Choi	0.22%	455	301		99
Samuel Anderson	0.50%	200	176		84
Sandy Scott	1.20%	83	81		61
Scott Gutschewski	0.34%	294	151		41
Sebastian Cappelen	0.38%	263	176		99
Seung-Yul Noh	0.89%	112	81		84
Shad Tuten	0.77%	130	86		141
Spencer Levin	0.25%	400	251		117
Stuart Macdonald	0.92%	109	101		117
Taylor Dickson	0.80%	125	101		28
Taylor Montgomery	1.14%	88	41		61
Theo Humphrey	0.33%	303	176		117
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.76%	132	101		141
Tom Whitney	0.70%	143	126		129
Tommy Cocha	0.25%	400	251		117
Trace Crowe	0.93%	108	81		5
Travis Trace	0.63%	159	111		61
Trent Phillips	0.79%	127	71		41
Trevor Cone	0.74%	135	101		13
Trey Winstead	0.30%	333	151		153
Tyler Duncan	0.71%	141	141		61
Tyler Leach	0.46%	217	176		61
Tyson Alexander	0.58%	172	151		154
Vicente Marzilio	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	147	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Wil Bateman	0.63%	159	126		84
Will Cannon	0.40%	250	151		28
Will Chandler	0.59%	169	126		13
Will Gordon	0.46%	217	126		129
Wilson Furr	0.80%	125	101
Yuta Sugiura	1.02%	98	81		84
Zac Blair	1.34%	75	67		28
Zack Fischer	0.46%	217	126		150

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ben Carr	0.97%	103	176	0.40%	128	-2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Wilson Furr	0.98%	102	176	0.40%			Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Luke Gutschewski	0.81%	123	226	0.40%	51	-2	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Ben Carr	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	99	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Luke Gutschewski	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	28	-1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Cooper Musselman	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	99	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Vicente Marzilio	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	147	-1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.