Simulation Results: Simmons Bank Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.05% 2000 751 127
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.74% 36 26 67
Alistair Docherty 0.57% 175 276 0.20% 33 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alvaro Ortiz 0.57% 175 161 6
Andrew Kozan 0.17% 588 351 39
Augusto Nunez 0.32% 313 176 67
Austin Greaser 0.38% 263 301 59
Austin Hitt 1.00% 100 67 2
Austin Smotherman 1.99% 50 29 67
Barend Botha 0.51% 196 101 87
Ben Taylor 0.66% 152 91 67
Billy Kennerly 0.05% 2000 751 20
Billy Tom Sargent 0.11% 909 401 87
Bio Kim 0.27% 370 101 25
Blades Brown 0.60% 167 81 30
Blaine Hale 0.37% 270 301 61
Brandon Berry 0.55% 182 176 120
Brandon Harkins 0.05% 2000 601 131
Brandon Hoelzer 0.46% 217 351 0.20% 87 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Valdes 0.79% 127 76 113
Brendon Jelley 0.48% 208 301 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bronson Burgoon 0.25% 400 251 13
Bryce Lewis 1.09% 92 56 127
Bryson Nimmer 0.12% 833 351 87
Caleb VanArragon 0.69% 145 111 4
Carl Yuan 0.46% 217 111 87
Carter Jenkins 0.16% 625 176 53
Chandler Blanchet 3.03% 33 26 33
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.13% 769 301 120
Christo Lamprecht 1.39% 72 46 47
Clay Feagler 0.03% 3333 351 64
Cody Blick 0.22% 455 301 39
Cole Hammer 0.36% 278 251 113
Cole Sherwood 0.48% 208 176 67
Cooper Dossey 0.69% 145 81 67
Dalton Ward 0.08% 1250 401 67
Dan McCarthy 0.35% 286 151 33
David Kocher 0.20% 500 201 53
Davis Chatfield 2.16% 46 29 107
Davis Shore 1.26% 79 81 25
Dawson Armstrong 0.03% 3333 1001 131
Derek Bard 0.19% 526 351 87
Doc Redman 0.70% 143 101 59
Dylan Menante 1.83% 55 111 0.90% 25 -0.9 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez 4.02% 25 26 0.20% 30 -0.2 BetMGM: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Etienne Papineau 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 67 -0.1 PaddyPower: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez 1.02% 98 56 98
Grant Hirschman 0.04% 2500 501 25
Hank Lebioda 1.35% 74 56 98
Harry Hillier 0.28% 357 176 87
Hunter Eichhorn 0.17% 588 201 98
Ian Gilligan 0.32% 313 126 7
Ian Holt 0.64% 156 101 33
James Nicholas 0.59% 169 276 0.20% 57 -0.2 QuinnBet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeffrey Kang 0.90% 111 81 87
Jeremy Gandon 1.09% 92 91 134
Joe Weiler 0.35% 286 201 20
John VanDerLaan 1.61% 62 56 67
Johnny Keefer 3.78% 26 19 4
Jonas Baumgartner 0.03% 3333 501 134
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.21% 476 126 39
Josh Teater 0.25% 400 201 39
Joshua Creel 0.21% 476 301 67
Julian Suri 2.43% 41 29 67
Justin Suh 0.51% 196 91 15
Keenan Huskey 0.04% 2500 501 120
Kensei Hirata 2.61% 38 34 64
Kevin Dougherty 1.15% 87 51 57
Kyle Westmoreland 0.19% 526 201 61
Logan McAllister 0.66% 152 126 7
Luke Guthrie 0.20% 500 201 120
M.J. Daffue 0.25% 400 176 107
Marcelo Rozo 0.32% 313 161 39
Marcus Plunkett 0.07% 1429 401 67
Mark Goetz 0.21% 476 401 33
Mark Lawrence 1.34% 75 176 0.80% 67 -0.8 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins 0.62% 161 141 131
Matthew Anderson 0.26% 385 276 64
Michael Johnson 1.82% 55 56 113
Mitchell Meissner 0.88% 114 67 98
Myles Creighton 0.25% 400 276 33
Nate Stember 0.04% 2500 501 120
Neal Shipley 3.55% 28 17 67
Nelson Ledesma 0.10% 1000 351 15
Nick Gabrelcik 0.45% 222 201 25
Nicolo Galletti 2.28% 44 67 0.80% 15 -0.8 BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Owen Stamper 0.11% 909 401 87
Patrick Cover 0.17% 588 401 47
Patrick Welch 0.51% 196 161 3
Peter Kuest 0.44% 227 141 15
Petr Hruby 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pierceson Coody 1.56% 64 34 61
Pontus Nyholm 2.76% 36 34 47
Preston Summerhays 0.62% 161 91 20
Rayhan Thomas 0.24% 417 301 20
Rhein Gibson 0.11% 909 401 47
Richy Werenski 0.23% 435 201 47
Rick Lamb 0.37% 270 251 98
Rob Oppenheim 0.14% 714 351 20
Robby Shelton 1.38% 72 34 7
Robert Streb 0.06% 1667 301 53
Roberto Diaz 0.18% 556 251 120
Roger Sloan 0.67% 149 126 107
Ross Steelman 1.87% 53 46 67
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.35% 286 201 107
Russell Knox 0.80% 125 86 67
Ryan Blaum 0.07% 1429 501 113
Ryan Burnett 0.35% 286 176 120
Ryan Hall 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 98 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick 0.40% 250 151 113
Sam Bennett 0.15% 667 276 107
Samuel Anderson 0.37% 270 276 113
Sandy Scott 1.11% 90 91 67
Sebastian Cappelen 0.20% 500 351 15
Seungtaek Lee 2.51% 40 67 1.00% 87 -1 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seung-Yul Noh 0.93% 108 81 98
Shad Tuten 1.42% 70 91 0.30% 30 -0.3 BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Spencer Levin 0.22% 455 201 67
Spencer Ralston 0.16% 625 351 67
Stuart Macdonald 0.27% 370 151 12
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.25% 80 67 134
T.J. Vogel 0.36% 278 176 107
Tanner Gore 0.09% 1111 1251 127
Tom Whitney 0.62% 161 126 127
Travis Trace 0.27% 370 301 113
Trent Phillips 0.91% 110 81 7
Trey Winstead 0.35% 286 201 13
Tyler Duncan 0.79% 127 81 39
Tyson Alexander 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 39 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Cannon 0.83% 120 91 47
William McGirt 0.33% 303 351 98
Wilson Furr 0.93% 108 101 87
Zach Bauchou 1.38% 72 34 1
Zach James 0.55% 182 176 7
Zack Fischer 0.31% 323 201 39
Zecheng Dou 2.26% 44 61 0.60% 98 -0.6 PaddyPower: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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