Simulation Results: Pinnacle Bank Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.06% 1667 501 142
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.84% 54 41 82
Alex Schaake 0.00% 10000 1001 68
Algot Kleen 0.07% 1429 351 43
Alistair Docherty 0.49% 204 201 99
Alvaro Ortiz 0.51% 196 201 43
Anders Albertson 0.19% 526 301 68
Andrew Landry 0.06% 1667 751 117
Augusto Nunez 0.27% 370 201 18
Austin Cook 0.22% 455 251 25
Austin Greaser 0.27% 370 301 82
Austin Hitt 2.05% 49 51 0.10% 61 -0.1 William Hill: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 4.78% 21 21 142
Barend Botha 0.51% 196 126 25
Ben Martin 0.94% 106 81 28
Ben Taylor 0.68% 147 81 43
Billy Kennerly 0.05% 2000 501 142
Billy Tom Sargent 0.26% 385 301 99
Bio Kim 0.34% 294 151 28
Blades Brown 1.15% 87 67 117
Blaine Hale 0.22% 455 276 82
Brandon Berry 0.27% 370 351 82
Brandon Crick 0.27% 370 161 99
Brandon Harkins 0.05% 2000 601 68
Brandon Matthews 0.01% 10000 601 153
Brendan Valdes 1.71% 58 46 153
Brendon Jelley 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 82 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Lewis 2.18% 46 67 0.70% 82 -0.7 Unibet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryson Nimmer 0.07% 1429 501 68
Caleb VanArragon 0.42% 238 111 99
Cameron Huss 0.04% 2500 1001 117
Carl Yuan 0.55% 182 61 129
Chandler Blanchet 2.56% 39 41 0.10% 14 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chase Koepka 0.13% 769 151 129
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.11% 909 301 135
Christo Lamprecht 0.53% 189 81 1
Cody Blick 0.19% 526 201 117
Cole Hammer 0.67% 149 201 0.20% 51 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cole Ponich 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cole Sherwood 0.53% 189 176 99
Cooper Dossey 0.52% 192 81 14
Dalton Ward 0.03% 3333 601 129
Dan McCarthy 0.35% 286 161 28
Daniel Summerhays 0.66% 152 67 43
David Kocher 0.31% 323 161 63
Davis Chatfield 1.96% 51 31 68
Davis Shore 0.40% 250 201 25
Derek Bard 0.21% 476 401 58
Doc Redman 0.64% 156 111 82
Dylan Ellis 0.00% 10000 1001 135
Dylan Menante 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 146 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu 0.69% 145 101 28
Emilio Gonzalez 2.40% 42 46 0.20% 82 -0.2 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ethan Davidson 0.02% 5000 751 39
Etienne Papineau 0.48% 208 351 0.20% 99 -0.2 BetVictor: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez 1.55% 65 67 0.10% 151 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fletcher Wunderlich 0.00% 10000 1001 146
George McNeill 0.03% 3333 251 28
Hank Lebioda 1.02% 98 67 14
Harry Hillier 0.19% 526 276 18
Hayden Springer 0.96% 104 41 18
Ian Gilligan 0.19% 526 151 51
Ian Holt 1.42% 70 71 82
Jackson Van Paris 0.10% 1000 301 43
Jacob Solomon 0.03% 3333 1001 68
James Nicholas 0.13% 769 301 117
Jeffrey Kang 0.28% 357 161 51
Jeremy Gandon 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 135 -0.1 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joe Weiler 0.31% 323 251 28
John VanDerLaan 1.48% 68 56 43
Johnny Keefer 2.79% 36 19 99
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.32% 313 101 135
Josh Teater 0.45% 222 161 99
Joshua Creel 0.11% 909 301 99
Julian Suri 1.16% 86 67 28
Justin Suh 0.59% 169 81 51
Kensei Hirata 2.76% 36 29 99
Kevin Dougherty 0.92% 109 6
Kevin Streelman 0.27% 370 151 117
Kyle Cottam 0.13% 769 301 39
Kyle Westmoreland 0.19% 526 301 58
Logan McAllister 0.48% 208 151 68
Luke Guthrie 0.10% 1000 276 51
Luke Gutschewski 0.29% 345 401 68
M.J. Daffue 0.30% 333 201 39
Marcelo Rozo 0.63% 159 141 68
Marcus Smith 0.06% 1667 601 150
Matt Atkins 0.29% 345 401 22
Matt NeSmith 1.42% 70 71 117
Matthew Anderson 0.11% 909 301 12
Michael Johnson 1.22% 82 67 22
Mitchell Meissner 1.42% 70 51 99
Myles Creighton 0.26% 385 301 39
Neal Shipley 3.71% 27 19 8
Nelson Ledesma 0.10% 1000 501 28
Nick Gabrelcik 0.27% 370 251 8
Nick Watney 0.28% 357 201 82
Nicolo Galletti 1.31% 76 81 0.10% 82 -0.1 Unibet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Omar Morales 0.00% 10000 501 50
Patrick Cover 0.18% 556 401 65
Patrick Welch 0.42% 238 176 129
Peter Kuest 0.14% 714 301 2
Petr Hruby 0.33% 303 351 28
Phichaksn Maichon 0.34% 294 176 51
Philip Knowles 0.27% 370 201 135
Pierceson Coody 3.07% 33 21 135
Pontus Nyholm 1.11% 90 71 14
Quade Cummins 1.78% 56 71 0.40% 12 -0.4 PaddyPower: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhein Gibson 0.05% 2000 751 28
Richy Werenski 0.03% 3333 501 65
Rick Lamb 0.48% 208 201 82
Riley Lewis 0.22% 455 276 148
Rob Oppenheim 0.16% 625 301 117
Robby Shelton 1.13% 88 67 3
Robert Streb 0.11% 909 401 68
Roberto Diaz 0.25% 400 201 82
Roger Sloan 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.79% 56 41 82
Rudy Sautron 0.01% 10000 501 142
Russell Knox 0.17% 588 401 43
Ryan Armour 0.07% 1429 601 117
Ryan Blaum 0.18% 556 601 65
Ryan McCormick 0.34% 294 176 63
Ryan Sullivan 0.00% 10000 351 151
Sam Bennett 0.16% 625 251 117
Samuel Anderson 0.15% 667 401 6
Sandy Scott 0.84% 119 126 58
Scott Gutschewski 0.19% 526 201
Scott Piercy 0.46% 217 126 153
Sebastian Cappelen 0.23% 435 301 99
Sebastian Moss 0.02% 5000 501 148
Seonghyeon Kim 2.57% 39 41 0.10% 135 -0.1 Unibet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seungtaek Lee 1.47% 68 67 68
Seung-Yul Noh 0.92% 109 76 153
Shad Tuten 0.95% 105 101 68
Spencer Levin 0.31% 323 226 99
Stuart Macdonald 0.33% 303 151 68
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.44% 227 126 4
T.J. Vogel 0.68% 147 151 99
Tanner Gore 0.08% 1250 1001 99
Taylor Montgomery 1.30% 77 26 18
Tommy Gainey 0.08% 1250 401 99
Trace Crowe 1.24% 81 81 5
Travis Trace 0.17% 588 251 117
Trent Phillips 0.51% 196 101 82
Trey Winstead 0.21% 476 201 129
Tyler Duncan 0.95% 105 81 51
Tyson Alexander 0.51% 196 141 129
Will Cannon 0.27% 370 176 8
William McGirt 0.18% 556 351 99
Wilson Furr 1.08% 93 101 0.10% 68 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zac Blair 0.87% 115 81 99
Zach Bauchou 1.93% 52 34 117
Zach James 0.36% 278 301 8
Zack Fischer 0.51% 196 126 82
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 46 82

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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