Simulation Results: Panama Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.32%	76	61		2
Alistair Docherty	1.46%	68	71	0.10%	116	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Ortiz	0.64%	156	131		59
Augusto Nunez	0.26%	385	201		122
Austin Cook	0.26%	385	276		49
Austin Hitt	1.01%	99	86		11
Barend Botha	2.06%	49	26		37
Ben Kohles	2.81%	36	26		28
Ben Martin	3.85%	26	34	0.90%	79	-0.9	Star Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman	1.03%	97	41		122
Ben Taylor	1.26%	79	81		37
Blades Brown	1.33%	75	34		66
Blaine Hale	0.13%	769	301		101
Braden Thornberry	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	72	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Berry	0.27%	370	251		134
Brandon Matthews	0.05%	2000	401		137
Brandon Wu	0.82%	122	141	0.10%	127	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett White	0.45%	222	161		23
Bryce Lewis	0.36%	278	226		23
Bryson Nimmer	0.44%	227	201		49
Caleb VanArragon	1.80%	56	46		49
Cameron Champ	1.77%	56	41		90
Carson Bacha	0.14%	714	226		23
Carson Young	0.98%	102	36		143
Chad Sewell	0.10%	1000	501		23
Chan Kim	0.91%	110	46		7
Chez Reavie	0.14%	714	501		76
Cole Hammer	0.90%	111	71		4
Cole Sherwood	1.24%	81	71		32
Cooper Dossey	1.54%	65	41		79
Cristobal Del Solar	0.34%	294	501	0.10%	79	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/5
Daniel Summerhays	0.38%	263	201		16
David Perkins	0.10%	1000	351		101
David Skinns	1.04%	96	81		76
Davis Lamb	0.91%	110	81		66
Davis Shore	0.58%	172	71		61
Derek Hitchner	0.30%	333	151		32
Dillon Stewart	0.21%	476	301		90
Doc Redman	0.88%	114	61		28
Drew Goodman	0.08%	1250	601		79
Drew Nesbitt	0.09%	1111	351		109
Dylan Menante	1.35%	74	67		66
Fabian Gomez	0.27%	370	151		23
Fred Biondi	0.22%	455	276		116
Harry Higgs	0.73%	137	91		90
Harry Hillier	0.16%	625	351		79
Hayden Buckley	2.02%	50	56	0.20%	11	-0.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	2.81%	36	34		49
Hunter Eichhorn	1.16%	86	151	0.50%	37	-0.5	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hunter Wolcott	0.07%	1429	351		79
Ian Gilligan	0.42%	238	131		4
Ian Holt	2.48%	40	34		1
Jack Maguire	0.97%	103	126	0.20%	143	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jackson Buchanan	0.52%	192	91		79
Jackson Van Paris	0.89%	112	71		16
James Nicholas	0.71%	141	126		90
James Song	0.02%	5000	2001		142
Jay Card	0.37%	270	111		137
Jeff Overton	0.26%	385	226		72
Jeremy Gandon	0.50%	200	176		4
Joe Weiler	0.65%	154	126		75
John Marshall Butler	0.21%	476	201		122
John Pak	1.17%	85	51		109
Jonathan Byrd	1.31%	76	67		28
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.67%	149	126		7
Jorge Garcia	0.12%	833	501		49
Joseph Bramlett	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	16	-0.6	Star Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josh Teater	0.19%	526	201		76
Juan Motta	0.01%	10000	401		137
Julian Suri	0.78%	128	101		37
Justin Suh	0.67%	149	86		127
Kaito Onishi	0.23%	435	251		109
Kevin Dougherty	1.27%	79	81		122
Kevin Velo	0.53%	189	151		49
KK Limbhasut	0.06%	1667	351		127
Kyle Westmoreland	0.46%	217	201		32
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.20%	500	176		32
Logan McAllister	0.80%	125	81		79
Lucca Gonzalez	0.01%	10000	401		127
Marshall Meisel	1.12%	89	301	0.80%	134	-0.8	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Martin Laird	0.52%	192	131		66
Mason Andersen	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	16	-0.1	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Atkins	0.77%	130	81		101
Matt NeSmith	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	79	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Anderson	0.14%	714	351		90
Matthew Riedel	0.39%	256	201		101
Maxwell Moldovan	0.06%	1667	501		37
Michael Feagles	0.97%	103	226	0.50%	101	-0.5	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	11	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mitchell Meissner	2.08%	48	34		61
Myles Creighton	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	59	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Nicholas Infanti	0.06%	1667	501		116
Nick Gabrelcik	1.05%	95	51		122
Nick Hardy	1.61%	62	81	0.40%	49	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolo Galletti	0.76%	132	126		101
Noah Goodwin	1.63%	61	41		134
Norman Xiong	0.17%	588	251		66
Parker Coody	0.24%	417	251		116
Paul Barjon	0.06%	1667	401		140
Paul Peterson	1.09%	92	71		101
Peter Kuest	0.30%	333	111		109
Phichaksn Maichon	0.24%	417	251		90
Philip Knowles	0.31%	323	301		127
Preston Summerhays	0.14%	714	276		140
Rayhan Thomas	0.39%	256	161		37
Rhein Gibson	0.14%	714	301		49
Ricardo Celia	0.12%	833	401		116
Rick Lamb	1.00%	100	101		109
Rob Oppenheim	0.20%	500	501		37
Robby Shelton	0.44%	227	91		109
Roger Sloan	0.98%	102	86		32
Ross Steelman	0.84%	119	71		16
Russell Knox	0.54%	185	111		90
Ryan Blaum	0.13%	769	501		28
Ryan Brehm	0.20%	500	301		127
Ryan Burnett	0.19%	526	301		49
Ryan Grider	0.01%	10000	1501		127
Ryan Sullivan	0.01%	10000	2001		90
Ryo Ishikawa	0.32%	313	111		79
Sam Choi	0.15%	667	501		90
Samuel Anderson	0.35%	286	201		11
Sandy Scott	0.45%	222	151		63
Sebastian Cappelen	0.73%	137	176	0.20%	101	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Seung-Yul Noh	1.03%	97	46		11
Shad Tuten	0.38%	263	176		63
Spencer Levin	0.12%	833	501		16
Stuart Macdonald	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	16	-0.1	Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Dickson	1.07%	93	111	0.20%	37	-0.2	Star Sports: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.19%	84	81		7
Theo Humphrey	0.13%	769	251		63
Trent Phillips	2.56%	39	26		66
Trevor Cone	1.08%	93	41		3
Trey Winstead	0.73%	137	111		37
Troy Merritt	0.57%	175	111		109
Tyler Duncan	0.77%	130	201	0.30%	7	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.07%	1429	751		49
Tyson Alexander	0.18%	556	601		37
Vicente Marzilio	0.08%	1250	501		116
Wil Bateman	0.25%	400	226		79
Will Chandler	0.09%	1111	351		37
Will Gordon	1.27%	79	71		72
Wilson Furr	0.53%	189	101		90
Yuta Sugiura	0.16%	625	151		90
Zac Blair	0.99%	101	26		37

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.57%	64	56		18
Alistair Docherty	1.64%	61	71	0.20%	110	-0.2	VirginBet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Ortiz	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	89	-0.2	VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Augusto Nunez	0.30%	333	126		119
Austin Cook	0.30%	333	141		18
Austin Hitt	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	39	-0.1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Barend Botha	0.78%	128	41		28
Ben Kohles	0.87%	115	36		6
Ben Martin	0.99%	101	51		139
Ben Silverman	0.53%	189	51		89
Ben Taylor	1.56%	64	71	0.20%	39	-0.2	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blades Brown	0.62%	161	51		68
Blaine Hale	0.59%	169	176		68
Braden Thornberry	0.43%	233	101		6
Brandon Berry	0.77%	130	126		119
Brandon Matthews	0.47%	213	201		119
Brandon Wu	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	119	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett White	0.32%	313	111		48
Bryce Lewis	0.37%	270	126		68
Bryson Nimmer	0.34%	294	111		28
Caleb VanArragon	1.75%	57	56		3
Cameron Champ	0.70%	143	56		68
Carson Bacha	0.21%	476	126		48
Carson Young	0.52%	192	46		129
Chad Sewell	0.51%	196	176		18
Chan Kim	0.52%	192	61		6
Chez Reavie	0.61%	164	191	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/5
Cole Hammer	0.51%	196	71		28
Cole Sherwood	1.49%	67	71	0.10%	48	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cooper Dossey	0.62%	161	51		129
Cristobal Del Solar	0.33%	303	191		129
Daniel Summerhays	0.35%	286	126		68
David Perkins	0.19%	526	141		119
David Skinns	0.54%	185	81		89
Davis Lamb	0.48%	208	76		39
Davis Shore	0.41%	244	71		48
Derek Hitchner	0.29%	345	126		48
Dillon Stewart	0.76%	132	176	0.20%	136	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doc Redman	0.48%	208	61		89
Drew Goodman	0.53%	189	201		68
Drew Nesbitt	0.58%	172	141		139
Dylan Menante	1.52%	66	61		39
Fabian Gomez	0.84%	119	101		68
Fred Biondi	0.81%	123	141	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Harry Higgs	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	89	-0.1	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harry Hillier	0.76%	132	176	0.20%	89	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Hayden Buckley	1.79%	56	61	0.20%	18	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	0.85%	118	46		6
Hunter Eichhorn	0.56%	179	111		39
Hunter Wolcott	0.16%	625	151		89
Ian Gilligan	0.39%	256	101		6
Ian Holt	1.96%	51	51		1
Jack Maguire	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	136	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jackson Buchanan	1.07%	93	86		110
Jackson Van Paris	0.48%	208	71		39
James Nicholas	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	48	-0.1	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Song	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	144	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jay Card	0.98%	102	91		119
Jeff Overton	0.28%	357	126		89
Jeremy Gandon	0.39%	256	126		18
Joe Weiler	1.17%	85	91	0.10%	48	-0.1	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Marshall Butler	0.77%	130	126		110
John Pak	1.54%	65	56		28
Jonathan Byrd	1.60%	63	67	0.10%	39	-0.1	VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.16%	86	76		6
Jorge Garcia	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	6	0.070833333333333	VirginBet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joseph Bramlett	0.72%	139	67		6
Josh Teater	0.26%	385	126		39
Juan Motta	0.26%	385	176		119
Julian Suri	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	6	-0.041666666666667	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Suh	0.45%	222	91		68
Kaito Onishi	0.25%	400	126		119
Kevin Dougherty	0.58%	172	81		143
Kevin Velo	0.41%	244	111		6
KK Limbhasut	0.46%	217	151		68
Kyle Westmoreland	1.07%	93	111	0.20%	18	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.65%	154	126		68
Logan McAllister	0.49%	204	81		89
Lucca Gonzalez	0.08%	1250	176		129
Marshall Meisel	0.55%	182	176		89
Martin Laird	0.43%	233	101		68
Mason Andersen	1.31%	76	76		3
Matt Atkins	1.29%	78	71		48
Matt NeSmith	0.42%	238	126		48
Matthew Anderson	0.22%	455	176		28
Matthew Riedel	0.90%	111	111		89
Maxwell Moldovan	0.54%	185	191		18
Michael Feagles	1.32%	76	126	0.50%	68	-0.5	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	0.54%	185	76		110
Mitchell Meissner	0.77%	130	56		89
Myles Creighton	0.49%	204	126		89
Nicholas Infanti	0.44%	227	201		129
Nick Gabrelcik	1.41%	71	67		68
Nick Hardy	0.60%	167	71		68
Nicolo Galletti	1.28%	78	126	0.50%	68	-0.5	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.63%	159	51		136
Norman Xiong	0.26%	385	126		89
Parker Coody	0.78%	128	126		48
Paul Barjon	0.47%	213	176		139
Paul Peterson	0.52%	192	71		48
Peter Kuest	0.28%	357	101		110
Phichaksn Maichon	0.28%	357	126		119
Philip Knowles	0.91%	110	151	0.20%	129	-0.2	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Preston Summerhays	0.62%	161	151		139
Rayhan Thomas	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	89	-0.1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rhein Gibson	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ricardo Celia	0.19%	526	176		89
Rick Lamb	0.54%	185	81		48
Rob Oppenheim	0.30%	333	191		18
Robby Shelton	0.37%	270	91		110
Roger Sloan	0.52%	192	81		28
Ross Steelman	1.27%	79	71		48
Russell Knox	0.39%	256	91		68
Ryan Blaum	0.62%	161	191	0.10%	28	-0.1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Brehm	0.25%	400	161		110
Ryan Burnett	0.67%	149	176	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Grider	0.07%	1429	301		48
Ryan Sullivan	0.11%	909	401		89
Ryo Ishikawa	0.32%	313	101		110
Sam Choi	0.24%	417	176		110
Samuel Anderson	0.34%	294	111		18
Sandy Scott	1.06%	94	126	0.30%	6	0.025	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Cappelen	0.47%	213	111		68
Seung-Yul Noh	0.53%	189	51		28
Shad Tuten	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	48	-0.1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Spencer Levin	0.19%	526	191		3
Stuart Macdonald	0.44%	227	126		1
Taylor Dickson	1.36%	74	76		28
Taylor Montgomery	0.53%	189	61		6
Theo Humphrey	0.21%	476	126		18
Trent Phillips	0.80%	125	41		48
Trevor Cone	1.42%	70	56		28
Trey Winstead	0.42%	238	76		39
Troy Merritt	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	68	-0.1	VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Duncan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	28	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.18%	556	301		119
Tyson Alexander	0.26%	385	226		89
Vicente Marzilio	0.46%	217	201		48
Wil Bateman	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	89	-0.1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Chandler	0.57%	175	176		68
Will Gordon	0.60%	167	71		48
Wilson Furr	0.40%	250	86		129
Yuta Sugiura	0.25%	400	126		68
Zac Blair	1.40%	71	41		48

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ben Martin	3.85%	26	34	0.90%	79	-2	Star Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Marshall Meisel	1.12%	89	301	0.80%	134	-2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Joseph Bramlett	1.80%	56	81	0.60%	16	-2	Star Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Michael Feagles	1.32%	76	126	0.50%	68	-1	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Nicolo Galletti	1.28%	78	126	0.50%	68	-1	Star Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Tyler Duncan	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	28	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Sandy Scott	1.06%	94	126	0.30%	68	0.083333333333333	VirginBet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Hayden Buckley	1.79%	56	61	0.20%	39	-1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Alistair Docherty	1.64%	61	71	0.20%	18	-1	VirginBet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.