Simulation Results: NV5 Invitational

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.14% 714 401 149
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.83% 35 15 62
Algot Kleen 0.28% 357 201 75
Alistair Docherty 0.81% 123 101 72
Alvaro Ortiz 0.97% 103 101 95
Andrew Kozan 0.16% 625 401 79
Andrew Landry 0.10% 1000 1001 79
Anthony Delisanti 0.00% 10000 501 30
Augusto Nunez 0.66% 152 111 151
Austin Cook 0.38% 263 151 107
Austin Greaser 0.25% 400 301 41
Austin Hitt 1.29% 78 67 15
Austin Smotherman 3.79% 26 19 6
Barend Botha 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 57 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Crane 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 52 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Taylor 0.80% 125 101 52
Benton Weinberg 0.01% 10000 1501 79
Billy Kennerly 0.09% 1111 351 79
Billy Tom Sargent 0.27% 370 301 107
Blaine Hale 0.92% 109 151 0.30% 147 -0.3 Unibet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bradley Goldstein 0.00% 10000 1001 126
Brandon Berry 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 15 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Crick 0.37% 270 201 62
Brandon Harkins 0.20% 500 301 146
Brandon Hoelzer 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 79 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brannon Fahrny 0.06% 1667 501 77
Brendon Jelley 0.62% 161 161 107
Bryce Lewis 2.18% 46 51 0.20% 107 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.32% 313 226 149
Caleb VanArragon 0.39% 256 151 7
Carl Yuan 0.60% 167 81 15
Carter Jenkins 0.40% 250 176 153
Chandler Blanchet 2.62% 38 29 24
Charlie Nikitas 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Naegel 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 41 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht 0.72% 139 71 67
Clay Feagler 0.07% 1429 75
Cody Blick 0.30% 333 176 15
Cole Hammer 0.85% 118 151 0.20% 62 -0.2 Unibet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cole Sherwood 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 9 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Dossey 0.43% 233 91 9
Curtis Thompson 0.03% 3333 1001 95
Dalton Ward 0.19% 526 351 143
Dan Massello 0.00% 10000 1001 153
Dan McCarthy 0.46% 217 176 15
David Kocher 0.42% 238 126 52
Davis Chatfield 1.79% 56 29 3
Davis Shore 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 57 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dawson Armstrong 0.15% 667 401 79
Doc Redman 1.11% 90 67 107
Dylan Menante 0.98% 102 126 0.20% 24 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez 2.77% 36 34 67
Etienne Papineau 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 126 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez 1.36% 74 51 9
George McNeill 0.20% 500 351 135
Grant Hirschman 0.20% 500 251 126
Hank Lebioda 2.18% 46 31 52
Harrison Ott 0.71% 141 251 0.30% 120 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Hillier 0.36% 278 176 30
Hunter Eichhorn 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 24 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Gilligan 0.77% 130 91 79
Ian Holt 1.42% 70 56 41
Jackson Van Paris 0.13% 769 251 126
Jacob Solomon 0.06% 1667 1251 147
James Nicholas 0.31% 323 151 95
Jeffrey Kang 0.42% 238 201 2
Jeremy Gandon 1.19% 84 81 120
Joe Weiler 0.40% 250 201 79
John Augenstein 0.13% 769 601 135
John VanDerLaan 0.94% 106 101 15
Johnny Keefer 1.56% 64 34 1
Jonas Baumgartner 0.08% 1250 501 67
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.79% 127 56 135
Josh Teater 0.74% 135 91 143
Joshua Creel 0.33% 303 251 153
Julian Suri 0.47% 213 151 15
Justin Suh 0.75% 133 81 62
Kensei Hirata 1.56% 64 67 0.10% 3 0.775 Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kevin Dougherty 1.18% 85 51 41
Kevin Hall 0.00% 10000 501 79
Kevin Streelman 0.91% 110 81 95
Kyle Westmoreland 0.41% 244 176 95
Logan McAllister 0.43% 233 126 30
Luke Guthrie 0.20% 500 251 57
Luke Sample 0.00% 10000 501 143
M.J. Daffue 0.30% 333 151 24
Marcelo Rozo 0.85% 118 101 30
Mark Goetz 0.24% 417 301 41
Matt Atkins 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 9 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 1.01% 99 67 15
Matthew Anderson 0.34% 294 201 120
Michael Johnson 1.16% 86 67 57
Mitchell Meissner 1.24% 81 51 9
Myles Creighton 0.39% 256 201 72
Nate Stember 0.11% 909 751 135
Neal Shipley 2.69% 37 26 3
Nelson Ledesma 0.15% 667 501 15
Nick Gabrelcik 0.57% 175 126 95
Nicolo Galletti 1.10% 91 67 30
Omar Morales 0.02% 5000 301 151
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.15% 667 201 107
Patrick Cover 0.40% 250 201 95
Patrick Welch 0.93% 108 111 67
Petr Hruby 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 72 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon 0.52% 192 126 126
Pontus Nyholm 1.15% 87 67 79
Preston Summerhays 0.32% 313 151 67
Rayhan Thomas 0.29% 345 401 30
Rhein Gibson 0.16% 625 401 107
Richy Werenski 0.15% 667 251 126
Rick Lamb 0.68% 147 151 107
Rob Oppenheim 0.28% 357 176 135
Robby Shelton 0.74% 135 81 107
Roberto Diaz 0.61% 164 151 107
Roger Sloan 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.54% 65 41 120
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.13% 769 401 126
Russell Knox 0.40% 250 201 135
Ryan Blaum 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 79 -0.1 Betway: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett 0.19% 526 251 41
Ryan Hall 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 95 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan McCormick 0.39% 256 126 30
Sam Bennett 0.42% 238 151 153
Samuel Anderson 0.32% 313 301 95
Sandy Scott 0.78% 128 126 41
Scott Gutschewski 0.25% 400 176 41
Scott Piercy 1.00% 100 71 95
Sebastian Cappelen 0.35% 286 251 126
Sebastian Moss 0.14% 714 251 120
Seonghyeon Kim 1.68% 60 41 79
Seungtaek Lee 1.36% 74 51 30
Seung-Yul Noh 0.78% 128 81 24
Shad Tuten 0.60% 167 81 126
Spencer Levin 0.23% 435 401 107
Stuart Macdonald 0.43% 233 126 30
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.17% 85 81 24
T.J. Vogel 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 52 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tanner Gore 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 135 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Walsh 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 79 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney 1.03% 97 71 95
Tommy Gainey 0.20% 500 251 77
Trace Crowe 1.09% 92 67 41
Travis Trace 0.65% 154 151 107
Trent Phillips 0.83% 120 101 9
Trey Winstead 0.48% 208 111 120
Turk Pettit 0.05% 2000 176 79
Tyler Duncan 1.17% 85 101 0.20% 30 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander 0.44% 227 161 30
Will Cannon 0.69% 145 111 62
William McGirt 0.42% 238 201 135
Wilson Furr 1.10% 91 61 79
Zac Blair 1.19% 84 67 44
Zach Bauchou 1.20% 83 51 7
Zach James 0.65% 154 251 0.30% 79 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zack Fischer 0.64% 156 101 57
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 67 95

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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