Simulation Results: Memorial Health Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.28% 357 301 124
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 3.12% 32 15 136
Algot Kleen 0.17% 588 201 40
Alvaro Ortiz 0.93% 108 71 2
Andrew Kozan 0.27% 370 301 40
Andrew Landry 0.09% 1111 751 55
Augusto Nunez 1.18% 85 51 136
Austin Cook 0.22% 455 201 124
Austin Hitt 1.05% 95 91 23
Austin Smotherman 3.43% 29 26 1
Barend Botha 0.22% 455 501 76
Ben Taylor 1.36% 74 61 5
Billy Kennerly 0.23% 435 251 124
Billy Tom Sargent 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 66 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake McShea 0.28% 357 176 76
Brandon Berry 0.13% 769 601 76
Brandon Crick 0.70% 143 151 124
Brandon Harkins 0.25% 400 276 124
Brandon Hoelzer 0.30% 333 301 94
Brendan Valdes 1.51% 66 46 76
Brett Drewitt 0.16% 625 251 124
Bryce Lewis 1.46% 68 71 0.10% 11 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb VanArragon 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Huss 0.11% 909 501 76
Carl Yuan 0.48% 208 111 94
Carter Jenkins 0.54% 185 91 19
Chandler Blanchet 0.88% 114 76 7
Charlie Nikitas 0.14% 714 751 55
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.14% 714 75
Chesson Hadley 0.43% 233 101 11
Christo Lamprecht 0.67% 149 81 136
Clay Feagler 0.13% 769 401 55
Cody Blick 0.17% 588 301 62
Cole Hammer 0.51% 196 201 154
Cole Sherwood 0.49% 204 151 114
Cooper Dossey 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 94 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Musselman 0.03% 3333 501 28
D.A. Points 0.01% 10000 1501 150
Dalton Ward 0.15% 667 601 34
Dan McCarthy 0.68% 147 151 94
Danny Fisher 0.01% 10000 1001 148
David Kocher 0.38% 263 201 59
Davis Chatfield 1.04% 96 51 11
Davis Shore 0.84% 119 91 136
Dawson Armstrong 0.13% 769 401 50
Doc Redman 1.18% 85 71 40
Drew Goodman 0.00% 10000 126 76
Dylan Menante 1.21% 83 71 28
Emilio Gonzalez 2.33% 43 36 11
Ethan Davidson 0.03% 3333 1001 69
Etienne Papineau 0.26% 385 401 76
Fabian Gomez 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grant Hirschman 0.33% 303 201 124
Hank Lebioda 1.95% 51 29 16
Harry Hillier 0.46% 217 126 69
Ian Gilligan 0.93% 108 61 34
Ian Holt 1.20% 83 111 0.30% 7 -0.3 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Maguire 0.72% 139 151 0.10% Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Buchanan 0.99% 101 51 34
Jackson Van Paris 0.16% 625 126 76
Jacob Solomon 0.07% 1429 601 143
James Nicholas 0.67% 149 81 94
Jared Wolfe 0.25% 400 201 114
Jeffrey Kang 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 76 -0.1 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Gandon 0.39% 256 101 23
Jin Chung 0.06% 1667 1001 153
Joe Weiler 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 150 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
John VanDerLaan 0.64% 156 151 72
Jonas Baumgartner 0.08% 1250 1001 148
Josh Teater 0.84% 119 101 23
Joshua Creel 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 94 -0.1 William Hill: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Suri 0.46% 217 151 28
Justin Suh 1.02% 98 67 76
Keenan Huskey 0.11% 909 401 94
Kensei Hirata 1.18% 85 41 16
Kevin Dougherty 1.01% 99 141 0.30% 150 -0.3 BetVictor: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Cottam 0.09% 1111 401 124
Kyle Westmoreland 0.63% 159 111 74
Logan McAllister 0.46% 217 91 19
Luke Guthrie 0.16% 625 501 28
M.J. Daffue 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcelo Rozo 0.95% 105 111 94
Marcus Plunkett 0.14% 714 601 114
Marcus Smith 0.00% 10000 401 76
Martin Laird 0.83% 120 81 40
Matt Atkins 0.42% 238 751 0.30% 76 -0.3 BetVictor: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 0.99% 101 71 143
Matthew Anderson 0.46% 217 151 28
Michael Johnson 1.33% 75 56 76
Mitchell Meissner 2.99% 33 21 114
Myles Creighton 0.84% 119 91 136
Nate Stember 0.16% 625 301 72
Nate Vontz 0.02% 5000 1001 50
Neal Shipley 0.81% 123 81 5
Nelson Ledesma 0.23% 435 161 154
Nick Gabrelcik 0.51% 196 126 114
Nick Watney 0.28% 357 226 76
Nicolo Galletti 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 3 2.45 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Omar Morales 0.00% 10000 151 62
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.01% 10000 151 76
Patrick Cover 0.53% 189 151 59
Patrick Newcomb 0.09% 1111 351 76
Patrick Welch 0.41% 244 201 114
Paul Haley 0.09% 1111 601 59
Peter Kuest 0.13% 769 501 114
Petr Hruby 0.22% 455 501 124
Phichaksn Maichon 0.22% 455 101 124
Pierceson Coody 4.37% 23 19 7
Pontus Nyholm 0.87% 115 56 40
Preston Summerhays 0.18% 556 126 7
Rayhan Thomas 0.48% 208 201 114
Rhein Gibson 0.19% 526 251 94
Richy Werenski 0.28% 357 301 62
Rick Lamb 0.81% 123 101 76
Rob Oppenheim 0.26% 385 151 40
Robby Shelton 1.13% 88 56 94
Robert Streb 0.49% 204 201 136
Roberto Diaz 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 50 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Roger Sloan 0.76% 132 226 0.30% 94 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.47% 68 41 48
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.29% 345 201 136
Russell Knox 0.80% 125 101 114
Ryan Blaum 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 94 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett 0.25% 400 301 40
Ryan Hall 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 94 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick 0.88% 114 101 62
Sam Bennett 0.47% 213 201 34
Samuel Anderson 0.30% 333 251 66
Sandy Scott 0.70% 143 176 0.10% 3 2.1375 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Piercy 1.08% 93 126 0.30% 28 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 0.79% 127 126 114
Sebastian Moss 0.02% 5000 151 124
Seungtaek Lee 1.27% 79 34 23
Seung-Yul Noh 1.24% 81 61 40
Stuart Macdonald 0.52% 192 67 124
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.71% 141 151 143
T.J. Vogel 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 143 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tanner Gore 0.23% 435 401 94
Taylor Montgomery 0.45% 222 81 34
Thomas Walsh 0.82% 122 161 0.20% 94 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney 0.95% 105 101 11
Tommy Gainey 0.15% 667 751 19
Trace Crowe 1.42% 70 41 94
Trent Phillips 0.77% 130 81 34
Trey Winstead 1.00% 100 46 94
Tyler Duncan 1.29% 78 81 0.10% 94 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander 0.70% 143 111 76
Will Cannon 0.67% 149 101 23
William McGirt 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 66 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr 0.52% 192 176 143
Zac Blair 0.93% 108 81 94
Zach Bauchou 1.25% 80 61 19
Zach James 0.32% 313 251 16
Zack Fischer 0.39% 256 226 50
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 67 94

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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