Simulation Results: Knoxville Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.11%	909	251		153
Alistair Docherty	2.87%	35	26		56
Alvaro Ortiz	0.76%	132	126		46
Anders Albertson	0.31%	323	301		89
Anders Larson	0.00%	10000	451		139
Andrew Kozan	0.33%	303	276		70
Ashton Van Horne	0.22%	455	401		124
Augusto Nunez	0.25%	400	201		52
Austin Duncan	0.09%	1111	351		68
Austin Hitt	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	23	-0.1	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Barend Botha	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	89	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Beau Breault	0.05%	2000	351		124
Ben Carr	1.03%	97	71		39
Ben Taylor	1.70%	59	51		70
Billy Tom Sargent	0.21%	476	276		70
Blaine Hale	0.34%	294	176		39
Braden Thornberry	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	139	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Berry	0.24%	417	276		29
Brandon Harkins	0.18%	556	301		110
Brandon Hoelzer	0.05%	2000	351		139
Brandon Matthews	0.00%	10000	1001
Brandon Wu	0.34%	294	251		139
Brett Stegmaier	0.11%	909	276		124
Brett White	0.19%	526	301		70
Bronson Burgoon	2.69%	37	26
Bryce Hendrix	0.00%	10000	751		156
Bryce Lewis	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	3	3.7	PaddyPower: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.11%	909	276		149
Caleb VanArragon	3.58%	28	19		23
Carl Yuan	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	15	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Bacha	0.57%	175	91		60
Chad Sewell	0.25%	400	201		60
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.01%	10000	501		29
Chez Reavie	0.89%	112	101		89
Chris Francoeur	0.30%	333	301		29
Cody Blick	0.15%	667	401		149
Cole Hammer	2.33%	43	34		66
Cole Sherwood	2.39%	42	34		15
Cooper Dossey	2.95%	34	26		3
Cristobal Del Solar	0.38%	263	176		70
Dan McCarthy	0.18%	556	276		110
Daniel Wetterich	0.01%	10000	751		29
David Kocher	0.38%	263	301		110
Davis Lamb	1.46%	68	71	0.10%	89	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Shore	1.66%	60	46		8
Derek Hitchner	0.86%	116	161	0.20%	124	-0.2	Betway: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Stewart	0.08%	1250	1001		154
Doc Redman	2.68%	37	29		1
Drew Nesbitt	0.11%	909	251		50
Dylan Menante	2.01%	50	46		12
Fabian Gomez	0.51%	196	151		47
Hayden Buckley	1.69%	59	81	0.50%	29	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hunter Eichhorn	1.43%	70	34		2
Hunter Wolcott	0.12%	833	251		8
Ian Gilligan	3.63%	28	17		70
Ian Holt	1.31%	76	29		46
J.J. Grey	0.00%	10000	751		110
Jack Maguire	0.16%	625	251		52
Jackson Van Paris	0.38%	263	91		89
Jacob Solomon	0.53%	189	151		58
Jake Hall	0.04%	2500	351		110
Jake Peacock	0.08%	1250	351		29
James Nicholas	0.60%	167	101		15
James Song	0.01%	10000	1001		70
Jamie Wilson	1.81%	55	151	1.20%	70	-1.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Card	0.69%	145	101		70
Jeff Overton	0.12%	833	1001		147
Jeremy Gandon	1.15%	87	51		12
Jim Herman	0.02%	5000	1001		139
Jin Chung	0.01%	10000	1001		154
Joe Weiler	0.26%	385	351		6
John Augenstein	0.04%	2500	601		70
John Marshall Butler	0.43%	233	251		3
John Pak	1.65%	61	46		46
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.09%	92	41		23
Jorge Garcia	0.18%	556	276		89
Joseph Bramlett	2.20%	45	34		39
Josh Teater	0.69%	145	101		89
Joshua Creel	0.20%	500	301		124
Julian Suri	0.37%	270	201		132
Justin Hastings	0.24%	417	301		89
Justin Suh	0.98%	102	71		23
Kevin Dougherty	0.29%	345	251		15
Kyle Westmoreland	0.66%	152	91		39
Landon Cottrell	0.00%	10000	751		149
Logan McAllister	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	124	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Guthrie	0.16%	625	401		89
Luke Gutschewski	0.41%	244	251		89
Marshall Meisel	0.24%	417	401		89
Mason Andersen	1.23%	81	81		110
Matt Atkins	0.86%	116	141	0.20%	15	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith	0.42%	238	201		52
Matthew Anderson	0.25%	400	201		70
Matthew Riedel	0.22%	455	351		60
Maxwell Moldovan	0.82%	122	101		52
Michael Feagles	0.23%	435	301		70
Michael Johnson	4.44%	23	21		12
Michael Miller	0.10%	1000	501		110
Michael Thompson	0.00%	10000	151		60
Mitchell Meissner	1.28%	78	51		10
Myles Creighton	0.21%	476	201		132
Nelson Ledesma	0.15%	667	251		69
Nicholas Infanti	0.10%	1000	501		70
Nick Bienz	0.00%	10000	351		70
Nick Gabrelcik	0.76%	132	67		89
Nicolo Galletti	1.60%	63	51		110
Norman Xiong	0.38%	263	176		89
Paul Barjon	0.06%	1667	1001		139
Peter Kuest	0.43%	233	276	0.10%	89	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	70	-0.1	BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.42%	238	201		70
Philip Knowles	0.24%	417	351		89
Rayhan Thomas	0.54%	185	181		39
Rhein Gibson	0.38%	263	301		89
Ricardo Celia	0.30%	333	301		110
Rick Lamb	0.95%	105	111		29
Rob Oppenheim	0.27%	370	176		89
Robbie Higgins	0.06%	1667	751		29
Robby Shelton	0.35%	286	251		29
Robert Garrigus	0.03%	3333	501		132
Roger Sloan	0.98%	102	101		58
Ross Steelman	0.80%	125	91		10
Russell Knox	0.42%	238	126		39
Ryan Blaum	0.39%	256	101		139
Ryan Burnett	0.37%	270	201		50
Ryan Cole	0.14%	714	351		110
Ryan Elmore	0.02%	5000	1001		124
Ryan McCormick	0.26%	385	301		70
Ryan Sullivan	0.08%	1250	501		132
Ryo Ishikawa	0.87%	115	81		15
Sam Choi	0.15%	667	351		89
Samuel Anderson	0.33%	303	251
Sandy Scott	2.37%	42	34		23
Sebastian Cappelen	0.21%	476	401		89
Spencer Levin	0.09%	1111	1501		110
Stuart Macdonald	0.64%	156	161		124
Taylor Dickson	0.34%	294	201		46
Theo Humphrey	0.25%	400	401		6
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.66%	152	151		70
Tom Whitney	0.51%	196	226	0.10%	66	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Cocha	0.03%	3333	1001		70
Travis Trace	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	15	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	1.78%	56	34		56
Trevor Cone	1.37%	73	67		89
Trey Winstead	0.01%	10000	351		110
Turk Pettit	1.02%	98	81		139
Tyler Leach	0.09%	1111	501		65
Tyler Wilkes	0.01%	10000	501		23
Tyson Alexander	0.17%	588	301		132
Vicente Marzilio	0.33%	303	301		132
Wil Bateman	0.38%	263	251		89
Will Cannon	0.79%	127	151	0.10%	29	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.61%	164	91		110
Wilson Furr	0.32%	313	151		15
Yuta Sugiura	0.69%	145	126		39
Zack Fischer	0.26%	385	276		147

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.29%	345	151		150
Alistair Docherty	1.06%	94	46		97
Alvaro Ortiz	0.59%	169	101		22
Anders Albertson	0.43%	233	151		97
Anders Larson	0.01%	10000	201		154
Andrew Kozan	0.44%	227	141		126
Ashton Van Horne	0.35%	286	181		143
Augusto Nunez	0.41%	244	111		32
Austin Duncan	0.46%	217	201		52
Austin Hitt	0.71%	141	101		1
Barend Botha	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	97	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Beau Breault	0.44%	227	201		71
Ben Carr	0.69%	145	81		71
Ben Taylor	0.88%	114	56		71
Billy Tom Sargent	0.36%	278	141		52
Blaine Hale	0.41%	244	111		71
Braden Thornberry	0.92%	109	151	0.30%	32	-0.3	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Berry	0.38%	263	141		52
Brandon Harkins	0.35%	286	151		97
Brandon Hoelzer	0.43%	233	201		97
Brandon Wu	0.41%	244	141		97
Brett Stegmaier	0.62%	161	151		126
Brett White	0.69%	145	151		97
Bronson Burgoon	1.11%	90	46
Bryce Hendrix	0.20%	500	301		154
Bryce Lewis	0.44%	227	126		52
Bryson Nimmer	0.28%	357	151		97
Caleb VanArragon	1.29%	78	36		32
Carl Yuan	1.07%	93	111	0.20%	71	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carson Bacha	0.48%	208	91		52
Chad Sewell	0.41%	244	126		71
Chase Sienkiewicz	0.07%	1429	201		32
Chez Reavie	0.64%	156	81		32
Chris Francoeur	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	32	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cody Blick	0.29%	345	181		126
Cole Hammer	0.95%	105	51		32
Cole Sherwood	1.05%	95	51		52
Cooper Dossey	2.11%	47	41		8
Cristobal Del Solar	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	71	-0.1	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan McCarthy	0.36%	278	151		71
Daniel Wetterich	0.23%	435	251		71
David Kocher	0.90%	111	151	0.20%	126	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Lamb	1.49%	67	81	0.30%	97	-0.3	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Shore	1.60%	63	56		8
Derek Hitchner	0.64%	156	101		97
Dillon Stewart	0.27%	370	301		150
Doc Redman	1.05%	95	46		5
Drew Nesbitt	0.51%	196	151		3
Dylan Menante	1.69%	59	56		32
Hayden Buckley	0.88%	114	76		5
Hunter Eichhorn	1.54%	65	51		8
Hunter Wolcott	0.60%	167	126		3
Ian Gilligan	1.27%	79	34		8
Ian Holt	0.77%	130	46		97
J.J. Grey	0.20%	500	251		97
Jack Maguire	0.34%	294	151		52
Jackson Van Paris	0.90%	111	91		71
Jacob Solomon	0.98%	102	101		22
Jake Hall	0.46%	217	201		97
Jake Peacock	0.23%	435	201		8
James Nicholas	0.57%	175	91		8
James Song	0.11%	909	301		32
Jamie Wilson	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	126	-0.2	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jay Card	0.64%	156	101		22
Jeff Overton	0.29%	345	251		150
Jeremy Gandon	0.71%	141	67		32
Jim Herman	0.16%	625	251		156
Jin Chung	0.13%	769	351		143
Joe Weiler	0.82%	122	171	0.20%	71	-0.2	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Augenstein	0.18%	556	251		52
John Marshall Butler	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	8	-0.1	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Pak	0.84%	119	56		97
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.72%	139	56		22
Jorge Garcia	0.37%	270	151		52
Joseph Bramlett	0.99%	101	46		52
Josh Teater	0.60%	167	91		97
Joshua Creel	0.31%	323	151		71
Julian Suri	0.46%	217	151		143
Justin Hastings	0.36%	278	151		126
Justin Suh	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	71	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Dougherty	0.40%	250	141		52
Kyle Westmoreland	0.54%	185	91		97
Landon Cottrell	0.00%	10000	251		126
Logan McAllister	0.52%	192	111		71
Luke Guthrie	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	8	-0.2	BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Gutschewski	0.94%	106	141	0.20%	97	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marshall Meisel	0.75%	133	181	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Andersen	0.73%	137	91		143
Matt Atkins	0.57%	175	101		22
Matt NeSmith	0.46%	217	111		71
Matthew Anderson	0.39%	256	151		22
Matthew Riedel	0.35%	286	151		32
Max Schliesing	0.15%	667	201		5
Maxwell Moldovan	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	71	-0.2	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Feagles	0.37%	270	151		126
Michael Johnson	1.37%	73	41		32
Michael Miller	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	143	-0.1	BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Thompson	0.01%	10000	101		97
Mitchell Meissner	0.82%	122	67		71
Myles Creighton	0.39%	256	126		150
Nelson Ledesma	0.61%	164	151		1
Nicholas Infanti	0.29%	345	201		97
Nick Bienz	0.16%	625	201		52
Nick Gabrelcik	0.60%	167	81		52
Nicolo Galletti	1.58%	63	67	0.10%	71	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Norman Xiong	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	8	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Parker Holekamp	0.05%	2000	351		126
Paul Barjon	0.21%	476	301		126
Peter Kuest	0.51%	196	126		97
Petr Hruby	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	52	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.85%	118	111		71
Philip Knowles	0.70%	143	151		126
Rayhan Thomas	0.53%	189	151		32
Rhein Gibson	0.87%	115	151	0.20%	97	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricardo Celia	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	71	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb	0.69%	145	91		52
Rob Oppenheim	0.74%	135	126		71
Robbie Higgins	0.44%	227	226		8
Robby Shelton	0.44%	227	141		8
Robert Garrigus	0.33%	303	251		143
Roger Sloan	0.69%	145	91		97
Ross Steelman	0.58%	172	91		8
Russell Knox	0.45%	222	101		71
Ryan Blaum	0.48%	208	101		126
Ryan Burnett	0.44%	227	111		8
Ryan Cole	0.29%	345	201		97
Ryan Elmore	0.33%	303	351		97
Ryan McCormick	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	71	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Sullivan	0.27%	370	201		97
Ryo Ishikawa	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	32	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Choi	0.34%	294	171		126
Sandy Scott	1.84%	54	51		52
Sebastian Cappelen	0.74%	135	181	0.20%	52	-0.2	Bet365: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Spencer Levin	0.25%	400	351		97
Spencer Ralston	0.24%	417	301		52
Stuart Macdonald	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	126	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	0.91%	110	101		8
Theo Humphrey	0.69%	145	151		32
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.60%	167	126		22
Tom Whitney	0.48%	208	141		22
Tommy Cocha	0.33%	303	351		71
Travis Trace	0.65%	154	101		97
Trent Phillips	0.94%	106	51		32
Trevor Cone	0.80%	125	81		97
Trey Winstead	0.15%	667	201		126
Turk Pettit	1.39%	72	91	0.30%	71	-0.3	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	22	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Wilkes	0.14%	714	251		22
Tyson Alexander	0.32%	313	151		97
Vicente Marzilio	0.91%	110	151	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wil Bateman	0.46%	217	141		52
Will Cannon	1.29%	78	101	0.30%	71	-0.3	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.54%	185	91		126
Wilson Furr	0.43%	233	126		32
Yuta Sugiura	1.16%	86	101	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zack Fischer	0.40%	250	141		126

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jamie Wilson	1.81%	55	151	1.20%	70	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hayden Buckley	1.69%	59	81	0.50%	29	-2	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Matt Atkins	0.86%	116	141	0.20%	15	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Davis Lamb	1.49%	67	81	0.30%	97	-1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Turk Pettit	1.39%	72	91	0.30%	71	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Will Cannon	1.29%	78	101	0.30%	71	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Braden Thornberry	0.92%	109	151	0.30%	32	-1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Maxwell Moldovan	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	71	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Petr Hruby	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	52	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.