Simulation Results: Knoxville Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.12% 833 176 58
Adam Long 0.27% 370 251 69
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.45% 41 34 13
Alistair Docherty 1.74% 57 56
Alvaro Ortiz 2.14% 47 61 0.50% 23 -0.5 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anders Albertson 0.20% 500 176 30
Andrew Kozan 0.16% 625 351 6
Andrew Landry 0.01% 10000 1501 100
Augusto Nunez 1.41% 71 61 47
Austin Cook 0.17% 588 126 71
Austin Greaser 0.31% 323 161 52
Austin Hitt 0.67% 149 176 0.10% 129 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 3.30% 30 34 0.40% 151 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Barend Botha 0.27% 370 251 85
Ben Crane 0.08% 1250 751 113
Ben Martin 2.04% 49 41 85
Ben Taylor 1.64% 61 51 40
Billy Kennerly 0.37% 270 126 113
Blaine Hale 0.80% 125 101 149
Braden Thornberry 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 119 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Berry 0.02% 5000 1001 100
Brandon Crick 0.87% 115 201 0.40% 71 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.18% 556 201 100
Brandon Hoelzer 0.19% 526 301 35
Brandon Matthews 0.04% 2500 501 100
Brett Schell 0.00% 10000 501 129
Bronson Burgoon 0.08% 1250 501 23
Bryson Nimmer 0.86% 116 81 85
Caleb VanArragon 0.47% 213 226 71
Cameron Champ 1.03% 97 81 52
Carl Yuan 0.46% 217 126 152
Carter Jenkins 0.80% 125 101 58
Chandler Blanchet 2.14% 47 51 0.20% 26 -0.2 Unibet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.12% 833 148
Chris Crawford 0.03% 3333 1001 119
Christo Lamprecht 0.40% 250 91
Clay Feagler 0.05% 2000 501 52
Cody Blick 0.18% 556 501 40
Colby Patton 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Cole Hammer 0.18% 556 151 71
Cole Sherwood 1.01% 99 76 119
Cooper Dossey 0.43% 233 161 9
Cristobal Del Solar 0.68% 147 51 71
Dalton Ward 0.20% 500 401 119
Dan McCarthy 0.40% 250 251 85
David Kocher 0.35% 286 201 141
Davis Chatfield 1.76% 57 56 139
Davis Shore 0.55% 182 81 35
Doc Redman 0.42% 238 56 85
Dylan Menante 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 3 4.275 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez 0.79% 127 81 9
Etienne Papineau 0.19% 526 501 64
Fabian Gomez 0.72% 139 126 113
Grant Hirschman 0.11% 909 351 47
Hank Lebioda 1.71% 58 46 64
Harrison Endycott 0.19% 526 126 85
Harrison Ott 0.01% 10000 1001 129
Harry Hillier 0.10% 1000 176 35
Hunter Logan 0.02% 5000 276 141
Ian Holt 0.49% 204 176 26
Jack Maguire 0.84% 119 91
Jacob Solomon 0.04% 2500 1001 58
James Nicholas 0.43% 233 151 152
Jeffrey Kang 0.38% 263 301 3
Jeremy Gandon 0.73% 137 67 52
Jin Chung 0.00% 10000 1251 17
Joe Weiler 0.74% 135 126 9
John Greco 0.03% 3333 751 146
John Rollins 0.00% 10000 1501 141
John VanDerLaan 0.89% 112 111 100
Johnny Keefer 3.44% 29 23 2
Jonas Baumgartner 0.04% 2500 601 119
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.21% 476 401 100
Josh Teater 1.08% 93 71 119
Joshua Creel 0.23% 435 151 100
Julian Suri 0.43% 233 126 30
Justin Suh 0.91% 110 76 13
Keenan Huskey 0.10% 1000 401 146
Kensei Hirata 2.47% 40 29 71
Kevin Dougherty 0.44% 227 141 47
Kevin Tway 1.00% 100 101 100
Kevin Velo 0.62% 161 126 152
Kyle Cottam 0.05% 2000 751 69
Kyle Westmoreland 0.45% 222 101 85
Logan McAllister 0.62% 161 91 17
Luke Guthrie 0.05% 2000 401 85
M.J. Daffue 0.24% 417 176 26
Mac Murphy 0.00% 10000 751 119
Marcelo Rozo 0.49% 204 111 71
Marcus Plunkett 0.04% 2500 401 85
Mark Lawrence 0.00% 10000 501 17
Matt Atkins 0.25% 400 351 71
Matt NeSmith 1.23% 81 101 0.20% 9 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.24% 417 201 40
Michael Johnson 0.45% 222 151 17
Mitchell Meissner 4.57% 22 26 0.80% 26 -0.8 Unibet: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Myles Creighton 0.83% 120 126 58
Nate Stember 0.37% 270 126 141
Nelson Ledesma 0.21% 476 201 129
Nick Gabrelcik 0.85% 118 81 129
Nick Watney 0.46% 217 111 64
Nicolo Galletti 0.12% 833 301 71
Norman Xiong 0.98% 102 56 152
Owen Stamper 0.21% 476 501 139
Patrick Cover 0.30% 333 226 30
Paul Barjon 0.03% 3333 1001 64
Peter Kuest 0.16% 625 501 100
Petr Hruby 0.10% 1000 501 35
Philip Knowles 0.08% 1250 301 100
Pontus Nyholm 1.19% 84 51 1
Rayhan Thomas 0.24% 417 251 71
Rhein Gibson 0.29% 345 176 63
Richy Werenski 0.36% 278 201 100
Rick Lamb 0.98% 102 46 30
Rob Oppenheim 0.23% 435 151 30
Robert Streb 0.18% 556 401 40
Roberto Diaz 0.41% 244 151 71
Roger Sloan 0.81% 123 161 0.20% 71 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 0.74% 135 67 5
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.30% 333 151 129
Russell Knox 0.71% 141 101 52
Ryan Blaum 0.35% 286 126 152
Ryan Burnett 0.06% 1667 601 35
Ryan Hall 0.24% 417 301 6
Ryan McCormick 0.62% 161 101 13
Sam Bennett 0.60% 167 101 100
Samuel Anderson 0.47% 213 176 85
Sandy Scott 0.26% 385 201 47
Scott Piercy 0.37% 270 201 85
Sebastian Cappelen 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim 6.46% 15 19 1.30% 6 -0.30333333333333 Skybet: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seth Reeves 0.11% 909 301
Seungtaek Lee 2.36% 42 29 17
Seung-Yul Noh 1.84% 54 51 85
Shad Tuten 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 119 -0.1 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stuart Macdonald 0.16% 625 176 129
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.60% 167 111 23
T.J. Vogel 0.38% 263 176 119
Tanner Gore 0.19% 526 176 85
Tano Goya 0.19% 526 351 40
Thomas Walsh 0.63% 159 151 71
Tom Whitney 1.04% 96 126 0.20% 58 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Gainey 0.09% 1111 751 145
Trace Crowe 1.59% 63 41 13
Trent Phillips 0.84% 119 71 40
Trey Shirley 0.01% 10000 601 113
Trey Winstead 0.99% 101 67 119
Tyler Duncan 0.87% 115 56 113
Tyler Johnson 0.00% 10000 751 149
Tyson Alexander 0.61% 164 126 52
Will Cannon 0.14% 714 276 68
William McGirt 0.52% 192 276 0.20% 113 -0.2 Paddy Power: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zach Bauchou 2.54% 39 46 0.40% 47 -0.4 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach James 0.24% 417 201 85
Zack Fischer 0.24% 417 151 129
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 46 40

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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