Simulation Results: Colonial Life Charity Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.04%	96	81		13
Alistair Docherty	2.07%	48	29		16
Alvaro Ortiz	0.77%	130	126		87
Augusto Nunez	0.22%	455	201		126
Austin Hitt	0.36%	278	201		16
Barend Botha	0.53%	189	151		87
Ben Carr	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	23	-0.2	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Kohles	1.88%	53	41		12
Ben Martin	0.54%	185	91		60
Ben Sigel	0.01%	10000	1001		153
Ben Taylor	1.54%	65	67		27
Billy Tom Sargent	0.31%	323	201		146
Blades Brown	3.73%	27	17		16
Blaine Hale	0.75%	133	176	0.20%	80	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blake McShea	0.01%	10000	1001		118
Braden Thornberry	0.18%	556	401		51
Brandon Harkins	0.18%	556	351		104
Brandon Matthews	0.00%	10000	1001
Brandon Wu	0.09%	1111	351		36
Brett Stegmaier	0.27%	370	251		141
Brett White	0.10%	1000	501		60
Bronson Burgoon	2.34%	43	29		86
Bryce Lewis	0.15%	667	501		60
Bryson Nimmer	0.18%	556	201		151
Caden Fioroni	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	51	-0.1	BetMGM: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caleb VanArragon	2.58%	39	26		13
Cameron Champ	0.72%	139	81		69
Carl Pettersson	0.01%	10000	1501		73
Carl Yuan	0.43%	233	201		104
Carson Bacha	0.58%	172	101		73
Carson Young	1.01%	99	26		7
Chad Sewell	0.34%	294	201		141
Chan Kim	0.75%	133	81		16
Chesson Hadley	0.09%	1111	251		126
Chez Reavie	0.34%	294	176		16
Chris Francoeur	0.40%	250	276		132
Clay Amlung	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Cole Hammer	0.98%	102	67		4
Cole Sherwood	0.99%	101	81		1
Cooper Dossey	1.85%	54	41		27
Cristobal Del Solar	0.17%	588	201		87
Daniel Summerhays	0.17%	588	301		60
David Kocher	0.09%	1111	401		27
Davis Lamb	0.79%	127	101		23
Davis Shore	1.54%	65	67		36
Derek Hitchner	0.56%	179	251	0.20%	36	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dillon Stewart	0.10%	1000	1001		136
Doc Redman	1.48%	68	51		7
Drew Nesbitt	0.15%	667	351		141
Dylan Menante	2.44%	41	67	1.00%	87	-1	10Bet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez	0.89%	112	151	0.20%	146	-0.2	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harry Higgs	1.14%	88	161	0.50%	87	-0.5	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	51	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henrik Norlander	0.46%	217	176		36
Hunter Eichhorn	1.48%	68	41		51
Ian Gilligan	2.94%	34	23		7
Jack Maguire	0.16%	625	251		146
Jackson Buchanan	0.10%	1000	501		87
Jackson Van Paris	0.44%	227	91		136
Jacob Solomon	0.25%	400	351		16
James Nicholas	0.55%	182	126		60
James Song	0.01%	10000	1501		84
Jamie Wilson	0.00%	10000	501		27
Jay Card	0.42%	238	201		27
Jeff Overton	0.13%	769	751		141
Jeremy Gandon	1.18%	85	41		104
Jeremy Paul	0.36%	278	101		79
Joe Weiler	0.11%	909	501		87
John Marshall Butler	0.22%	455	401		27
John Pak	1.95%	51	46		69
Jonathan Byrd	0.22%	455	176		87
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.09%	92	56		69
Jorge Garcia	0.16%	625	351		51
Joseph Bramlett	3.39%	29	26		104
Josh Teater	0.14%	714	301		4
Julian Suri	0.24%	417	201
Justin Hastings	0.20%	500	301		118
Justin Suh	0.47%	213	101		36
Kevin Dougherty	0.26%	385	201		126
Kevin Velo	0.22%	455	201
Kyle Westmoreland	0.08%	1250	201		3
Lanto Griffin	1.83%	55	51
Logan McAllister	0.14%	714	351		36
Luke Gutschewski	0.30%	333	251		60
Marshall Meisel	0.15%	667	401		87
Martin Laird	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	47	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Andersen	0.87%	115	101		47
Matt Atkins	0.78%	128	161	0.20%	60	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith	0.38%	263	251		80
Matthew Anderson	0.26%	385	351		132
Matthew Riedel	0.19%	526	501		73
Maxwell Moldovan	0.39%	256	201		27
Michael Feagles	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	84	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Johnson	2.58%	39	34		7
Mitchell Meissner	1.22%	82	46		104
Myles Creighton	0.33%	303	201		150
Nathan Franks	0.10%	1000	601		47
Nicholas Infanti	0.08%	1250	501		87
Nick Gabrelcik	0.84%	119	126		87
Nick Hardy	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	36	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolo Galletti	1.74%	57	67	0.30%	51	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.55%	182	91		87
Parker Gillam	0.01%	10000	1001		126
Paul Peterson	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	7	-0.1	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Kuest	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	132	-0.1	10Bet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.38%	263	251		51
Philip Knowles	0.19%	526	401		118
Preston Summerhays	0.15%	667	351		118
R.J. Manke	0.16%	625	401		151
Rayhan Thomas	0.10%	1000	501		13
Rhein Gibson	0.37%	270	276		87
Ricardo Celia	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	87	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb	0.79%	127	111		51
Rob Oppenheim	0.38%	263	201		83
Robbie Higgins	0.06%	1667	601		82
Robby Shelton	0.38%	263	251		146
Roger Sloan	0.93%	108	81		104
Ross Steelman	0.79%	127	126		73
Russell Knox	0.31%	323	151		69
Ryan Blaum	0.21%	476	201		27
Ryan Brehm	0.18%	556	601		104
Ryan Burnett	0.12%	833	351		47
Ryan Sullivan	0.02%	5000	751		36
Ryo Ishikawa	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	87	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Choi	0.09%	1111	1001		36
Samuel Anderson	0.27%	370	251		155
Sandy Scott	2.91%	34	46	0.80%	36	-0.8	BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Scott Stevens	0.01%	10000	601		141
Sebastian Cappelen	0.14%	714	401		87
Seung-Yul Noh	0.70%	143	101		126
Shad Tuten	0.37%	270	91		118
Spencer Levin	0.06%	1667	1251		118
Stuart Macdonald	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	104	-0.1	Betway: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	0.44%	227	151		153
Taylor Montgomery	0.83%	120	56		51
Theo Humphrey	0.09%	1111	751		36
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.66%	152	126		104
Todd Duncan	0.00%	10000	351		104
Tom Whitney	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	73	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Trace	1.34%	75	151	0.70%	60	-0.7	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	0.89%	112	101		16
Trevor Cone	1.65%	61	67	0.20%	87	-0.2	William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trey Mullinax	0.66%	152	71
Turk Pettit	0.12%	833	251		4
Tyler Duncan	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	104	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.11%	909	501		136
Tyson Alexander	0.07%	1429	501		118
Vicente Marzilio	0.11%	909	501		23
Vince Covello	0.07%	1429	1001		136
Wil Bateman	0.32%	313	201		104
Will Chandler	1.10%	91	91		126
Will Gordon	0.25%	400	301		23
Wilson Furr	0.22%	455	201		132
Yuta Sugiura	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	104	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zac Blair	2.53%	40	26		2
Zack Fischer	0.18%	556	351		73

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.83%	120	67		77
Alistair Docherty	1.13%	88	51		36
Alvaro Ortiz	0.74%	135	101		77
Augusto Nunez	0.47%	213	126		36
Austin Hitt	0.56%	179	126		36
Barend Botha	0.63%	159	111		36
Ben Carr	0.78%	128	101		124
Ben Kohles	1.05%	95	51		36
Ben Martin	0.72%	139	91		36
Ben Sigel	0.16%	625	351		150
Ben Taylor	1.01%	99	71		77
Billy Tom Sargent	0.69%	145	151		124
Blades Brown	1.48%	68	34		11
Blaine Hale	0.73%	137	111		36
Blake McShea	0.23%	435	251		77
Braden Thornberry	0.51%	196	171		60
Brandon Harkins	0.44%	227	151		124
Brandon Matthews	0.13%	769	351
Brandon Wu	0.32%	313	141		102
Brett Stegmaier	0.47%	213	126		77
Brett White	0.36%	278	201		60
Bronson Burgoon	1.41%	71	46		17
Bryce Lewis	0.38%	263	176		1
Bryson Nimmer	0.46%	217	126		102
Caden Fioroni	0.59%	169	151		77
Caleb VanArragon	1.19%	84	41		102
Cameron Champ	0.87%	115	81		36
Carl Pettersson	0.14%	714	401		60
Carl Yuan	0.72%	139	111		138
Carson Bacha	0.78%	128	101		36
Carson Young	0.81%	123	46		4
Chad Sewell	0.60%	167	126		150
Chan Kim	0.88%	114	71		11
Chesson Hadley	0.32%	313	151		77
Chez Reavie	0.60%	167	111		102
Chris Francoeur	0.54%	185	126		102
Clay Amlung	0.07%	1429	351		77
Cole Hammer	0.90%	111	71		17
Cole Sherwood	0.86%	116	81		36
Cooper Dossey	1.06%	94	67		11
Cristobal Del Solar	0.40%	250	126		102
Daniel Summerhays	0.45%	222	151		102
David Kocher	0.31%	323	201		17
Davis Lamb	0.90%	111	91		17
Davis Shore	0.99%	101	81		60
Derek Hitchner	0.77%	130	111		17
Dillon Stewart	0.35%	286	251		102
Doc Redman	1.04%	96	67		36
Drew Nesbitt	0.36%	278	151		124
Dylan Menante	1.50%	67	67		60
Fabian Gomez	0.94%	106	111		150
Harry Higgs	0.88%	114	111		102
Hayden Buckley	1.06%	94	86		4
Henrik Norlander	0.64%	156	111		4
Hunter Eichhorn	1.20%	83	61		36
Ian Gilligan	1.32%	76	41		11
Jack Maguire	0.39%	256	151		102
Jackson Buchanan	0.37%	270	151		102
Jackson Van Paris	0.70%	143	81		77
Jacob Solomon	0.45%	222	161		4
James Nicholas	0.68%	147	101		124
James Song	0.11%	909	401		60
Jamie Wilson	0.08%	1250	201		77
Jay Card	0.58%	172	126		102
Jeff Overton	0.35%	286	251		138
Jeremy Gandon	0.94%	106	67		77
Jeremy Paul	0.62%	161	101		4
Joe Weiler	0.36%	278	176		102
John Marshall Butler	0.40%	250	151		11
John Pak	1.11%	90	67		124
Jonathan Byrd	0.44%	227	101		138
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.90%	111	67		77
Jorge Garcia	0.39%	256	151		60
Joseph Bramlett	1.62%	62	41		11
Josh Teater	0.38%	263	201		17
Julian Suri	0.48%	208	151
Justin Hastings	0.53%	189	151		36
Justin Suh	0.73%	137	91		17
Kevin Dougherty	0.55%	182	126		102
Kevin Velo	0.45%	222	151
Kyle Westmoreland	0.31%	323	151		17
Lanto Griffin	1.04%	96	51
Logan McAllister	0.40%	250	151		60
Luke Gutschewski	0.64%	156	126		17
Marshall Meisel	0.53%	189	171		102
Martin Laird	0.73%	137	111		60
Mason Andersen	0.74%	135	91		36
Matt Atkins	0.73%	137	111		77
Matt NeSmith	0.55%	182	111		17
Matthew Anderson	0.55%	182	151		60
Matthew Riedel	0.51%	196	171		17
Maxwell Moldovan	0.64%	156	126		60
Michael Feagles	0.59%	169	151		17
Michael Johnson	1.25%	80	51		36
Mitchell Meissner	1.06%	94	67		146
Myles Creighton	0.55%	182	126		155
Nathan Franks	0.40%	250	251		77
Nicholas Infanti	0.31%	323	201		77
Nick Gabrelcik	0.80%	125	91		77
Nick Hardy	0.72%	139	111		17
Nicolo Galletti	1.25%	80	67		102
Noah Goodwin	0.70%	143	91		77
Parker Gillam	0.14%	714	351		124
Paul Peterson	1.02%	98	71		3
Peter Kuest	0.60%	167	126		102
Phichaksn Maichon	0.53%	189	111		17
Philip Knowles	0.41%	244	171		102
Preston Summerhays	0.44%	227	151		146
R.J. Manke	0.42%	238	201		138
Rayhan Thomas	0.39%	256	201		36
Rhein Gibson	0.69%	145	151		36
Ricardo Celia	0.67%	149	176	0.10%	77	-0.1	Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rick Lamb	0.75%	133	91		60
Rob Oppenheim	0.57%	175	151		60
Robbie Higgins	0.35%	286	251		36
Robby Shelton	0.70%	143	126		150
Roger Sloan	0.80%	125	81		60
Ross Steelman	0.76%	132	91		60
Russell Knox	0.61%	164	126		124
Ryan Blaum	0.52%	192	126		124
Ryan Brehm	0.41%	244	251		17
Ryan Burnett	0.39%	256	151		36
Ryan Sullivan	0.22%	455	251		124
Ryo Ishikawa	1.05%	95	81		77
Sam Choi	0.26%	385	251		36
Samuel Anderson	0.50%	200	151		36
Sandy Scott	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	77	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Scott Stevens	0.18%	556	251		102
Sebastian Cappelen	0.35%	286	171		77
Seung-Yul Noh	0.68%	147	91		124
Shad Tuten	0.52%	192	86		77
Spencer Levin	0.27%	370	351		124
Stuart Macdonald	0.68%	147	101		138
Taylor Dickson	0.60%	167	111		138
Taylor Montgomery	0.77%	130	67		138
Theo Humphrey	0.33%	303	251		102
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.73%	137	101		150
Todd Duncan	0.08%	1250	201		17
Tom Whitney	0.58%	172	151		36
Travis Trace	0.95%	105	111		4
Trent Phillips	0.78%	128	71		4
Trevor Cone	1.04%	96	67		102
Trey Mullinax	0.80%	125	71
Turk Pettit	0.35%	286	151		17
Tyler Duncan	0.73%	137	111		17
Tyler Leach	0.35%	286	191		124
Tyson Alexander	0.33%	303	201		60
Vicente Marzilio	0.42%	238	201		17
Vince Covello	0.27%	370	251		124
Wil Bateman	0.55%	182	111		102
Will Chandler	1.02%	98	91		77
Will Gordon	0.47%	213	141		36
Wilson Furr	0.45%	222	126		146
Yuta Sugiura	0.96%	104	81		60
Zac Blair	1.21%	83	41		2
Zack Fischer	0.41%	244	151		77

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Dylan Menante	2.44%	41	67	1.00%	87	-2	10Bet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sandy Scott	2.91%	34	46	0.80%	36	-2	BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Travis Trace	1.34%	75	151	0.70%	60	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sandy Scott	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	77	-1.5	BetMGM: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ricardo Celia	0.67%	149	176	0.10%	77	-1.5	Star Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.