Simulation Results: Club Car Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.03% 3333 176 138
Adam Long 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.37% 73 34 31
Alistair Docherty 2.00% 50 41 89
Alvaro Ortiz 0.92% 109 101 76
Andrew Dorn 0.01% 10000 501 118
Andrew Landry 0.01% 10000 751 100
Ashton Van Horne 0.24% 417 301 154
Augusto Nunez 1.27% 79 101 0.30% 23 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Cook 0.81% 123 101 23
Austin Greaser 0.13% 769 301 15
Austin Hitt 0.40% 250 201 15
Austin Smotherman 1.88% 53 41 56
Barend Botha 0.86% 116 81 138
Ben Crane 0.04% 2500 1001 79
Ben Taylor 0.98% 102 81 31
Billy Kennerly 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blades Brown 1.09% 92 67 41
Brandon Berry 0.24% 417 276 150
Brandon Crick 0.51% 196 301 0.20% 79 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.58% 172 101 89
Brandon Matthews 0.01% 10000 501 89
Bryson Nimmer 0.22% 455 251 69
Caleb VanArragon 0.09% 1111 501 118
Cameron Champ 2.24% 45 61 0.60% 60 -0.6 Paddy Power: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carter Jenkins 0.09% 1111 351 79
Chandler Blanchet 1.35% 74 71 31
Charles Huntzinger 0.00% 10000 1001 69
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.11% 909 501 60
Christo Lamprecht 2.00% 50 29 118
Clay Feagler 0.08% 1250 401 15
Cody Blick 0.18% 556 301 6
Cole Hammer 0.47% 213 126 79
Cole Sherwood 0.52% 192 126 3
Cooper Dossey 0.53% 189 276 0.20% 79 -0.2 Paddy Power: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Shaun 0.09% 1111 276 146
Dalton Ward 0.21% 476 501 15
Dan McCarthy 0.32% 313 201 79
David Kocher 0.16% 625 301 135
Davis Chatfield 3.16% 32 34 0.20% 56 -0.2 Skybet: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Shore 0.62% 161 81 89
Dawson Armstrong 0.27% 370 351 100
Dylan Menante 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu 1.23% 81 51 100
Emilio Gonzalez 1.13% 88 81 6
Etienne Papineau 0.11% 909 501 41
Evan Harmeling 0.11% 909 501 138
Fabian Gomez 1.15% 87 91 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Garrick Higgo 2.66% 38 34 3
Grant Hirschman 0.02% 5000 601 15
Hank Lebioda 1.73% 58 41 89
Harry Hillier 0.12% 833 251 6
Hughes Threlkeld 0.00% 10000 401 138
Ian Holt 1.05% 95 81 79
Jack Maguire 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 100 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacob Solomon 0.04% 2500 501 77
Jake Moffitt 0.00% 10000 751 155
James Nicholas 0.33% 303 251 13
Jeff Overton 0.06% 1667 1001 138
Jeffrey Kang 0.49% 204 201 23
Jeremy Gandon 0.62% 161 126 1
Jin Chung 0.05% 2000 401 146
Joe Weiler 0.59% 169 151 31
John Augenstein 0.11% 909 401 118
John Greco 0.05% 2000 501 100
John Rollins 0.00% 10000 1501 138
John VanDerLaan 1.16% 86 81 13
Johnny Keefer 2.00% 50 29 6
Jonas Baumgartner 0.07% 1429 276 100
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.23% 435 251 60
Joseph Bramlett 2.35% 43 31 31
Josh Teater 0.68% 147 151 6
Joshua Creel 0.32% 313 201 60
Julian Suri 1.00% 100 101 100
Justin Suh 1.90% 53 41 31
Keenan Huskey 0.24% 417 501 100
Kensei Hirata 1.47% 68 29 23
Kevin Chappell 0.97% 103 81 118
Kevin Dougherty 1.58% 63 67 0.10% 79 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Tway 1.24% 81 101 0.30% 100 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Westmoreland 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 100 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Logan McAllister 0.89% 112 81 41
Luke Guthrie 0.11% 909 251 138
M.J. Daffue 0.16% 625 501 23
Marcelo Rozo 0.62% 161 126 100
Marcus Plunkett 0.05% 2000 351 41
Matt Atkins 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 135 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 1.02% 98 141 0.30% 31 -0.3 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.90% 111 101 89
Michael Johnson 0.40% 250 176 89
Mitchell Meissner 1.51% 66 46 23
Myles Creighton 0.42% 238 176 41
Nate Stember 0.31% 323 176 79
Neal Shipley 1.34% 75 56 89
Nelson Ledesma 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 129 -0.1 Paddy Power: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Gabrelcik 0.51% 196 126 6
Nick Watney 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 53 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolo Galletti 0.33% 303 176 23
Owen Stamper 0.04% 2500 751 69
Parker Coody 0.16% 625 251 129
Parker Gillam 0.02% 5000 601 129
Paul Barjon 0.22% 455 501 156
Peter Kuest 0.16% 625 401 129
Petr Hruby 0.26% 385 201 100
Pierceson Coody 2.44% 41 34 31
Pontus Nyholm 1.03% 97 101 69
Raj Ghosh 0.00% 10000 1501 41
Rayhan Thomas 0.59% 169 101 60
Rhein Gibson 0.36% 278 201 118
Richy Werenski 0.67% 149 151 129
Rick Lamb 1.01% 99 101 2
Rob Oppenheim 0.28% 357 101 41
Robbie Higgins 0.00% 10000 276 118
Robby Shelton 2.26% 44 46 0.10% 100 -0.1 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Streb 0.16% 625 401 89
Roberto Diaz 0.61% 164 151 41
Roger Sloan 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 53 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.19% 84 81 118
Russell Knox 1.19% 84 81 3
Ryan Armour 0.15% 667 401 60
Ryan Blaum 0.80% 125 101 41
Ryan Burnett 0.24% 417 276 135
Sam Bennett 0.44% 227 251 78
Samuel Anderson 0.39% 256 201 153
Sandy Scott 0.87% 115 101 60
Sangmoon Bae 0.14% 714 351 138
Scott Gutschewski 0.53% 189 201 69
Scott Piercy 0.86% 116 276 0.50% 118 -0.5 Paddy Power: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 0.23% 435 201 15
Seth Reeves 0.12% 833 501 146
Seungtaek Lee 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 23 -0.2 Paddy Power: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 56 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shad Tuten 0.81% 123 61 15
Spencer Levin 0.15% 667 69
Stuart Macdonald 0.09% 1111 351 60
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.23% 435 151 56
T.J. Vogel 0.89% 112 101 60
Tain Lee 0.09% 1111 751 100
Tanner Napier 0.01% 10000 601 100
Tano Goya 0.12% 833 401 69
Thomas Longbella 0.04% 2500 601 150
Thomas Walsh 0.56% 179 111 100
Tom Whitney 0.61% 164 101 41
Tommy Gainey 0.21% 476 501 100
Trace Crowe 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trent Phillips 0.54% 185 201 150
Trevor Werbylo 0.11% 909 501 129
Trey Winstead 1.55% 65 36 79
Tyler Duncan 2.39% 42 51 0.40% 89 -0.4 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander 1.17% 85 101 0.20% 89 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Cannon 0.29% 345 276 100
William McGirt 1.03% 97 151 0.40% 118 -0.4 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zac Blair 1.01% 99 81
Zach Bauchou 0.62% 161 81 6
Zach James 0.10% 1000 301 146
Zack Fischer 0.00% 10000 176 31

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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