Simulation Results: Club Car Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.87%	115	46		105
Alistair Docherty	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	10	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Ortiz	0.50%	200	151		80
Anthony Maccaglia	0.02%	5000	1001		145
Augusto Nunez	0.56%	179	141		105
Austin Hitt	0.79%	127	101		145
Barend Botha	0.63%	159	81		39
Ben Carr	0.57%	175	301	0.20%	7	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Kohles	1.52%	66	26		80
Ben Martin	0.61%	164	126		128
Ben Silverman	1.26%	79	51		77
Ben Taylor	0.82%	122	101		65
Billy Tom Sargent	0.39%	256	141		39
Blades Brown	1.37%	73	26		3
Blaine Hale	0.24%	417	301		93
Braden Thornberry	0.41%	244	251		112
Brandon Matthews	0.03%	3333	401		80
Brandon Wu	0.29%	345	161		75
Brendon Todd	0.06%	1667	501		65
Brett White	0.32%	313	151		80
Bryce Lewis	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	133	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.27%	370	251		22
Buck Brumlow	0.06%	1667			53
Caleb VanArragon	1.31%	76	76		30
Cameron Champ	0.74%	135	56		133
Camilo Villegas	0.32%	313	91		65
Carl Pettersson	0.00%	10000	1501		151
Carl Yuan	0.80%	125	131		112
Carson Bacha	1.37%	73	67		80
Carson Young	0.63%	159	51		5
Chad Sewell	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	93	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chan Kim	1.82%	55	46		133
Chesson Hadley	0.15%	667	276		145
Chez Reavie	0.16%	625	601		22
Chris Korte	1.15%	87	126	0.40%	155	-0.4	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Salzer	0.13%	769	601		145
Cole Sherwood	0.98%	102	46		22
Cooper Dossey	1.44%	69	56		15
Cooper Musselman	0.11%	909	351		10
Cristobal Del Solar	0.93%	108	71		133
Daniel Summerhays	0.53%	189	201		112
Danny Fisher	0.06%	1667	1001		121
Davis Lamb	0.77%	130	91		1
Davis Shore	1.20%	83	61		34
Derek Hitchner	0.23%	435	401		48
Dillon Stewart	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doc Redman	2.00%	50	51		57
Drew Nesbitt	0.27%	370	301		65
Dylan Menante	1.15%	87	141	0.40%	72	-0.4	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez	0.36%	278	126		105
Frankie Capan	0.29%	345	126		133
Greyson Sigg	0.94%	106	56		128
Hamilton Coleman	0.00%	10000	501		93
Harry Higgs	0.43%	233	176		93
Hayden Buckley	1.24%	81	101	0.30%	121	-0.3	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Springer	0.84%	119	71		39
Henrik Norlander	0.92%	109	141	0.20%	74	-0.2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Eichhorn	1.04%	96	71		10
Ian Gilligan	0.98%	102	91		4
Ian Holt	2.20%	45	36		7
Jack Maguire	0.41%	244	176		57
Jackson Buchanan	0.60%	167	151		112
Jackson Van Paris	0.75%	133	61		34
James Nicholas	0.78%	128	81		80
James Song	0.03%	3333	1001		128
Jay Card	0.36%	278	176		121
Jeff Overton	0.09%	1111	401		48
Jeremy Gandon	1.42%	70	36		22
Jeremy Paul	0.92%	109	67		65
Joe Weiler	0.33%	303	151		128
John Marshall Butler	0.20%	500	351		53
John Pak	1.36%	74	67		2
Jonathan Kaye	0.00%	10000	2001		154
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.66%	60	61		22
Joseph Bramlett	1.63%	61	51		6
Josh Teater	0.27%	370	141		65
Julian Suri	0.61%	164	111		80
Justin Hastings	0.35%	286	141		105
Justin Suh	0.46%	217	76		34
Kaito Onishi	0.14%	714	276		34
Keller Harper	0.01%	10000	1001		133
Kevin Dougherty	0.36%	278	101		133
Kevin Velo	0.40%	250	141		155
Kyle Westmoreland	0.65%	154	111		128
Lanto Griffin	0.75%	133	176	0.20%	7	-0.2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Logan McAllister	0.71%	141	101		121
Luke Gutschewski	0.80%	125	251	0.40%	39	-0.4	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke List	0.36%	278	201		133
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.00%	10000	141		22
Marshall Meisel	0.38%	263	401	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Laird	0.49%	204	151		133
Mason Andersen	1.08%	93	176	0.50%	15	-0.5	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	0.21%	476	276		93
Matt NeSmith	0.49%	204	401	0.20%	80	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	15	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Riedel	0.21%	476	351		57
Maxwell Moldovan	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	93	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Feagles	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	72	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Johnson	2.29%	44	46	0.10%	15	-0.1	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miles Russell	0.33%	303	91		15
Mitchell Meissner	0.87%	115	56		93
Myles Creighton	0.52%	192	201		112
Nicholas Infanti	0.05%	2000	751		65
Nick Gabrelcik	0.89%	112	71		78
Nicolo Galletti	1.19%	84	141	0.50%	53	-0.5	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Noah Goodwin	0.43%	233	81		15
Norman Xiong	0.49%	204	151		61
Paul Barjon	0.05%	2000	751		133
Paul Peterson	0.72%	139	101		15
Peter Kuest	0.32%	313	251		112
Petr Hruby	0.39%	256	251		80
Phichaksn Maichon	0.23%	435	276		39
Preston Summerhays	0.05%	2000	751		61
Rhein Gibson	0.34%	294	251		93
Richard S. Johnson	0.01%	10000			153
Rick Lamb	0.89%	112	111		121
Rob Oppenheim	0.24%	417	176		53
Robby Shelton	0.41%	244	151		30
Roger Sloan	0.70%	143	141		34
Ross Steelman	0.98%	102	101		75
Russell Knox	0.68%	147	91		39
Ryan Brehm	0.20%	500	301		112
Ryan Burnett	0.19%	526	401		61
Ryan Sullivan	0.09%	1111	1001		80
Ryo Ishikawa	0.69%	145	141		10
Sam Choi	0.12%	833	751		145
Samuel Anderson	0.37%	270	301		133
Sandy Scott	1.47%	68	67		48
Sebastian Cappelen	0.31%	323	251		80
Segundo Oliva	1.13%	88	121	0.30%	93	-0.3	Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh	2.02%	50	36		145
Shad Tuten	1.26%	79	61		30
Spencer Levin	0.18%	556	501		105
Stuart Macdonald	1.17%	85	141	0.50%	80	-0.5	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	0.85%	118	71		121
Taylor Montgomery	1.11%	90	51		10
Theo Humphrey	0.17%	588	301		93
Thomas Ponder	0.12%	833	401		30
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.53%	189	101		105
Tom Whitney	0.79%	127	126		57
Trace Crowe	0.90%	111	81		39
Trent Phillips	0.84%	119	61		93
Trevor Cone	1.06%	94	61		105
Trey Winstead	0.41%	244	176		152
Troy Merritt	0.28%	357	176		39
Tyler Duncan	0.54%	185	141		93
Tyler Leach	0.43%	233	251		133
Tyson Alexander	0.50%	200	276	0.10%	121	-0.1	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vicente Marzilio	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wil Bateman	1.15%	87	201	0.70%	61	-0.7	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	48	-0.1	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Gordon	0.42%	238	201		79
Wilson Furr	0.58%	172	251	0.20%	22	-0.2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	22	-0.3	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zac Blair	1.44%	69	31		39
Zack Fischer	0.57%	175	141		80

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.78%	128	51		17
Alistair Docherty	0.99%	101	67		48
Alvaro Ortiz	0.58%	172	101		103
Anthony Maccaglia	0.11%	909	351		136
Augusto Nunez	0.69%	145	111		77
Austin Hitt	0.71%	141	81		148
Barend Botha	0.74%	135	76		103
Ben Carr	0.59%	169	151		17
Ben Kohles	0.97%	103	41		48
Ben Martin	0.63%	159	101		119
Ben Silverman	0.94%	106	67		77
Ben Taylor	0.74%	135	86		29
Billy Tom Sargent	0.46%	217	101		29
Blades Brown	0.94%	106	41		10
Blaine Hale	0.49%	204	161		48
Braden Thornberry	0.52%	192	111		103
Brandon Matthews	0.19%	526	301		77
Brandon Wu	0.43%	233	141		5
Brendon Todd	0.20%	500	226		48
Brett White	0.55%	182	101		77
Bryce Lewis	0.70%	143	111		143
Bryson Nimmer	0.47%	213	126		10
Buck Brumlow	0.27%	370			29
Caleb VanArragon	0.94%	106	67		48
Cameron Champ	0.72%	139	51		103
Camilo Villegas	0.45%	222	91		48
Carl Pettersson	0.04%	2500	901		152
Carl Yuan	0.86%	116	81		136
Carson Bacha	0.93%	108	67		48
Carson Young	0.63%	159	51		77
Chad Sewell	0.92%	109	101		29
Chan Kim	1.38%	72	51		148
Chesson Hadley	0.34%	294	151		77
Chez Reavie	0.44%	227	201		29
Chris Korte	1.02%	98	101		152
Christian Salzer	0.43%	233	201		77
Cole Sherwood	0.96%	104	56		77
Cooper Dossey	1.23%	81	67		77
Cooper Musselman	0.26%	385	251		29
Cristobal Del Solar	0.80%	125	71		77
Daniel Summerhays	0.61%	164	111		48
Danny Fisher	0.28%	357	351		77
Davis Lamb	0.71%	141	81		48
Davis Shore	0.90%	111	71		77
Derek Hitchner	0.40%	250	151		77
Dillon Stewart	0.46%	217	201		119
Doc Redman	1.18%	85	56		48
Drew Nesbitt	0.49%	204	161		10
Dylan Menante	0.79%	127	101		29
Fabian Gomez	0.51%	196	101		29
Frankie Capan	0.42%	238	101		136
Greyson Sigg	0.77%	130	67		119
Hamilton Coleman	0.08%	1250	251		29
Harry Higgs	0.64%	156	111		17
Hayden Buckley	0.87%	115	81		119
Hayden Springer	0.74%	135	71		3
Henrik Norlander	0.74%	135	101		103
Hunter Eichhorn	0.96%	104	67		10
Ian Gilligan	0.97%	103	76		2
Ian Holt	1.20%	83	51		48
Jack Maguire	0.51%	196	111		103
Jackson Buchanan	0.79%	127	101		136
Jackson Van Paris	0.83%	120	67		77
James Nicholas	0.72%	139	76		119
James Song	0.18%	556	351		136
Jay Card	0.48%	208	111		152
Jeff Overton	0.27%	370	191		29
Jeremy Gandon	0.97%	103	51		48
Jeremy Paul	0.85%	118	67		29
Joe Weiler	0.57%	175	101		48
John Marshall Butler	0.37%	270	176		29
John Pak	0.97%	103	71		1
Jonathan Kaye	0.06%	1667	901		119
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.04%	96	67		17
Joseph Bramlett	1.08%	93	56		17
Josh Teater	0.42%	238	141		119
Julian Suri	0.81%	123	91		48
Justin Hastings	0.46%	217	101		119
Justin Suh	0.56%	179	111		17
Kaito Onishi	0.35%	286	151		103
Keller Harper	0.09%	1111	351		119
Kevin Dougherty	0.49%	204	111		119
Kevin Velo	0.52%	192	101		3
Kyle Westmoreland	0.64%	156	101		103
Lanto Griffin	0.80%	125	111		77
Logan McAllister	0.82%	122	81		103
Luke Gutschewski	0.81%	123	111		17
Luke List	0.47%	213	111		103
Mahanth Chirravuri	0.04%	2500	151		5
Marshall Meisel	0.59%	169	191	0.10%	148	-0.1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Laird	0.63%	159	101		156
Mason Andersen	0.97%	103	101		119
Matt Atkins	0.47%	213	151		136
Matt NeSmith	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	48	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Anderson	0.72%	139	111		119
Matthew Riedel	0.37%	270	176		17
Maxwell Moldovan	0.71%	141	111		77
Michael Feagles	0.62%	161	161		48
Michael Johnson	1.26%	79	51		77
Miles Russell	0.55%	182	71		77
Mitchell Meissner	0.77%	130	67		48
Myles Creighton	0.57%	175	111		119
Nicholas Infanti	0.18%	556	226		48
Nick Gabrelcik	0.74%	135	71		5
Nicolo Galletti	1.02%	98	101		29
Noah Goodwin	0.59%	169	71		5
Norman Xiong	0.68%	147	101		77
Paul Barjon	0.20%	500	251		143
Paul Peterson	0.86%	116	81		29
Peter Kuest	0.48%	208	111		136
Petr Hruby	0.60%	167	126		103
Phichaksn Maichon	0.45%	222	141		17
Preston Summerhays	0.22%	455	251		103
Rhein Gibson	0.54%	185	126		48
Richard S. Johnson	0.11%	909			152
Rick Lamb	0.88%	114	101		119
Rob Oppenheim	0.41%	244	176		48
Robby Shelton	0.61%	164	111		48
Roger Sloan	0.76%	132	101		103
Ross Steelman	0.81%	123	81		29
Russell Knox	0.63%	159	81		103
Ryan Brehm	0.43%	233	161		103
Ryan Burnett	0.36%	278	191		10
Ryan Sullivan	0.32%	313	351		77
Ryo Ishikawa	0.76%	132	101		10
Sam Choi	0.36%	278	226		148
Samuel Anderson	0.60%	167	161		143
Sandy Scott	0.96%	104	71		48
Sebastian Cappelen	0.55%	182	151		77
Segundo Oliva	0.81%	123	101		119
Seung-Yul Noh	1.43%	70	51		77
Shad Tuten	0.92%	109	67		17
Spencer Levin	0.40%	250	201		143
Stuart Macdonald	0.89%	112	101		48
Taylor Dickson	0.77%	130	67		103
Taylor Montgomery	1.03%	97	51		5
Theo Humphrey	0.37%	270	161		77
Thomas Ponder	0.24%	417	201		29
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.59%	169	81		119
Tom Whitney	0.85%	118	101		48
Trace Crowe	0.75%	133	67		17
Trent Phillips	0.70%	143	67		29
Trevor Cone	0.95%	105	67		29
Trey Winstead	0.56%	179	111		119
Troy Merritt	0.52%	192	111		29
Tyler Duncan	0.62%	161	101		77
Tyler Leach	0.54%	185	111		143
Tyson Alexander	0.54%	185	126		77
Vicente Marzilio	0.61%	164	176		48
Wil Bateman	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Chandler	0.56%	179	111		10
Will Gordon	0.53%	189	111		48
Wilson Furr	0.61%	164	101		77
Yuta Sugiura	1.01%	99	101		48
Zac Blair	0.97%	103	46		17
Zack Fischer	0.63%	159	101		48

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Wil Bateman	1.15%	87	201	0.70%	61	-2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Nicolo Galletti	1.19%	84	141	0.50%	53	-2	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Stuart Macdonald	1.17%	85	141	0.50%	80	-2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Wil Bateman	1.00%	100	111	0.10%	48	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Marshall Meisel	0.59%	169	191	0.10%	148	-1	Bet365: 190/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matt NeSmith	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	48	-1	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.