Simulation Results: Chile Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.68% 147 201 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alistair Docherty 1.39% 72 41 6
Alvaro Ortiz 0.79% 127 101 111
Andrew Landry 0.00% 10000 401 135
Ashton Van Horne 0.08% 1250 601 81
Augusto Nunez 0.63% 159 161 44
Austin Cook 0.27% 370 201 11
Austin Greaser 0.16% 625 501 27
Austin Hitt 1.31% 76 46 111
Austin Smotherman 2.07% 48 36 6
Barend Botha 0.44% 227 56 93
Ben Martin 1.55% 65 41 40
Ben Taylor 1.15% 87 71 27
Brandon Berry 0.49% 204 226 6
Brandon Crick 0.66% 152 126 93
Brandon Harkins 0.53% 189 67 27
Brandon Matthews 0.23% 435 251 127
Brett Drewitt 0.23% 435 201 93
Bronson Burgoon 0.28% 357 251 119
Caleb VanArragon 1.07% 93 226 0.60% 81 -0.6 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Champ 1.44% 69 67 81
Carl Yuan 0.72% 139 101 132
Carter Jenkins 0.24% 417 151 111
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.15% 667 401 127
Chesson Hadley 1.01% 99 67 74
Christo Lamprecht 1.60% 63 34 81
Clay Feagler 0.02% 5000 501 49
Cody Blick 0.33% 303 201 99
Cody Gribble 0.17% 588 501 111
Cole Hammer 0.33% 303 201 74
Cole Sherwood 0.38% 263 201 11
Colin Sikkenga 0.00% 10000 1001 141
Dalton Ward 0.12% 833 501 81
Dan McCarthy 0.41% 244 151 11
David Kocher 0.29% 345 251 40
Davis Chatfield 1.79% 56 56 17
Davis Shore 0.58% 172 176 99
Doc Redman 1.00% 100 46 49
Dylan Wu 2.09% 48 46 2
Emilio Gonzalez 1.31% 76 67 22
Erik Barnes 0.01% 10000 751 139
Etienne Papineau 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 137 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fabian Gomez 1.01% 99 81 49
Fred Biondi 0.12% 833 501 81
Grant Hirschman 0.03% 3333 501 132
Hank Lebioda 1.85% 54 31 5
Harry Hillier 0.09% 1111 401 127
Ian Holt 0.60% 167 151 54
Jack Maguire 0.18% 556 151 81
Jacob Solomon 0.05% 2000 176 127
James Nicholas 0.23% 435 226 93
Jim Herman 0.13% 769 751 99
Jin Chung 0.24% 417 251 99
Joe Weiler 0.42% 238 201 27
John Greco 0.10% 1000 401 119
John Keefer 1.07% 93 51 2
John VanDerLaan 0.86% 116 61 35
Jonas Baumgartner 0.42% 238 126 54
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.38% 263 251 66
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 0.21% 476 401 27
Joseph Bramlett 1.77% 56 46 22
Josh Teater 1.14% 88 161 0.50% 1 50 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Creel 0.26% 385 201 27
Justin Suh 2.40% 42 41 35
Kensei Hirata 1.45% 69 26 17
Kevin Chappell 2.26% 44 36 142
Kevin Dougherty 0.93% 108 101 74
Kyle Westmoreland 0.59% 169 126 81
Luke Guthrie 1.28% 78 91 0.20% 81 -0.2 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Daffue 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 99 -0.1 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcelo Garza 0.04% 2500 1001 81
Marcelo Rozo 0.39% 256 201 119
Marcus Plunkett 0.04% 2500 501 63
Matt Atkins 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 44 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 0.80% 125 91 22
Matthew Anderson 0.25% 400 401 132
Michael Gligic 0.07% 1429 401 119
Michael Johnson 0.40% 250 201 99
Mitchell Meissner 1.60% 63 51 11
Myles Creighton 0.32% 313 201 54
Nate Stember 0.08% 1250 176 66
Neal Shipley 0.98% 102 61 9
Nelson Ledesma 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 99 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Gabrelcik 0.20% 500 176 2
Nicolo Galletti 0.29% 345 176 59
Norman Xiong 1.51% 66 67 111
Omar Tejeira 0.01% 10000 1001 139
Owen Stamper 0.14% 714 401 81
Patrick Cover 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Barjon 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 99 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Haley 0.18% 556 601 44
Peter Kuest 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 111 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.36% 278 201 54
Philip Knowles 0.36% 278 176 135
Pierceson Coody 1.71% 58 26 9
Pontus Nyholm 1.41% 71 67 54
Rayhan Thomas 1.96% 51 36 66
Rhein Gibson 0.38% 263 251 81
Richy Werenski 1.41% 71 126 0.60% 111 -0.6 QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb 1.51% 66 56 127
Rob Oppenheim 0.19% 526 301 22
Robert Streb 0.31% 323 301 66
Roberto Diaz 0.85% 118 81 49
Roger Sloan 0.95% 105 101 40
Ross Steelman 0.85% 118 101 99
Russell Knox 3.23% 31 29 66
Ryan Armour 0.53% 189 176 119
Ryan Brehm 0.60% 167 301 0.30% 74 -0.3 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Burnett 0.16% 625 401 40
Ryan McCormick 0.67% 149 111 61
Sam Bennett 0.38% 263 126 27
Samuel Anderson 0.19% 526 251 66
Samuel Duran 0.00% 10000 1001 137
Sandy Scott 0.46% 217 151 93
Sangmoon Bae 0.34% 294 142
Sean O'Hair 0.50% 200 501 0.30% Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 1.56% 64 91 0.50% 99 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim 1.81% 55 41 27
Seungtaek Lee 0.61% 164 49
Seung-Yul Noh 2.66% 38 34 35
Spencer Levin 0.22% 455 401 35
Stuart Macdonald 0.13% 769 351 63
T.J. Vogel 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 22 -0.1 Betfred: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taiga Semikawa 1.14% 88 46 59
Tanner Gore 0.27% 370 276 74
Tano Goya 0.19% 526 251 44
Thomas Longbella 0.01% 10000 501 119
Thomas Walsh 0.42% 238 251 61
Tom Whitney 0.91% 110 91 35
Tommy Gainey 0.22% 455 501 65
Trace Crowe 1.03% 97 81 119
Trent Phillips 0.65% 154 161 93
Trey Winstead 1.46% 68 67 17
Tyler Duncan 1.53% 65 67 17
Tyler Strafaci 0.01% 10000 1001 74
Tyson Alexander 0.75% 133 226 0.30% 44 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Cannon 0.44% 227 176 111
William McGirt 1.40% 71 126 0.60% 11 -0.6 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Moll 0.22% 455 201 66
Wilson Furr 0.66% 152 301 0.30% 99 -0.3 QuinnBet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 1.77% 56 51 17
Zach James 0.44% 227 201 66
Zack Fischer 0.19% 526 301 99
Zecheng Dou 0.88% 114 71 11

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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