Simulation Results: Chile Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.00%	10000	201		68
Alex Weiss	0.04%	2500	601		151
Alistair Docherty	1.97%	51	36		18
Alvaro Ortiz	0.76%	132	101		44
Andrew Kozan	0.39%	256	201		138
Ashton Van Horne	0.23%	435	351		131
Augusto Nunez	0.30%	333	126		8
Austin Duncan	0.11%	909	201		74
Austin Hitt	0.90%	111	81		48
Barend Botha	0.99%	101	41		78
Beau Breault	0.19%	526	251		144
Ben Carr	0.37%	270	401	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Taylor	0.88%	114	67		34
Billy Tom Sargent	0.59%	169	81		62
Blaine Hale	0.38%	263	251		62
Braden Thornberry	0.55%	182	151		78
Brandon Berry	0.18%	556	501		74
Brandon Hoelzer	0.41%	244	161		124
Brandon Matthews	0.03%	3333	251		77
Brandon Wu	0.40%	250	111		99
Brett Stegmaier	0.39%	256	201		34
Brett White	0.84%	119	101		154
Bronson Burgoon	2.53%	40	29		11
Bryce Lewis	0.67%	149	151		52
Bryson Nimmer	0.45%	222	176		66
Caleb VanArragon	1.24%	81	67		18
Carl Yuan	0.78%	128	101		34
Carson Bacha	0.97%	103	101		4
Chad Sewell	0.72%	139	301	0.40%	8	-0.4	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Nikitas	0.15%	667	401		109
Chez Reavie	0.23%	435	301		155
Chris Francoeur	0.26%	385	201		62
Chris Korte	2.19%	46	101	1.20%	52	-1.2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christian Espinoza	0.01%	10000	1001		138
Christian Salzer	0.08%	1250	751		48
Cody Blick	0.19%	526	201		118
Cole Hammer	1.22%	82	36		99
Cole Sherwood	1.39%	72	29		78
Cooper Dossey	1.28%	78	51		2
Corey Shaun	0.09%	1111	401		149
Cristobal Del Solar	0.84%	119	41		34
Dan McCarthy	0.26%	385	351		144
David Kocher	0.11%	909	276		58
Davis Lamb	0.88%	114	61		26
Davis Shore	1.32%	76	34		18
Derek Hitchner	0.46%	217	301	0.10%	109	-0.1	PaddyPower: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Stewart	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	99	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doc Redman	0.94%	106	61		1
Drew Nesbitt	0.16%	625	301		26
Dylan Menante	1.22%	82	111	0.30%	34	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan-Birke	0.01%	10000			109
Gustavo Silva	0.01%	10000	601		58
Hayden Buckley	2.01%	50	51	0.10%	118	-0.1	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Eichhorn	2.45%	41	36		131
Hunter Wolcott	0.10%	1000	401		131
Ian Gilligan	1.97%	51	51		109
Ian Holt	2.57%	39	23		18
J.J. Grey	0.01%	10000	601		78
Jackson Buchanan	0.36%	278	151		18
Jackson Van Paris	2.20%	45	34		68
Jacob Solomon	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake Peacock	0.10%	1000	501		118
James Nicholas	0.74%	135	56		78
James Song	0.00%	10000	2001		52
Jay Card	0.34%	294	151		58
Jeremy Gandon	1.52%	66	36		26
Joe Weiler	0.73%	137	111		151
John DuBois	0.17%	588	126		149
John Marshall Butler	0.29%	345	251		99
John Pak	1.52%	66	51		44
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.96%	51	51		4
Joseph Bramlett	1.76%	57	36		44
Joshua Creel	0.19%	526	226		78
Justin Hastings	0.54%	185	101		109
Justin Suh	0.82%	122	51		74
Kaito Onishi	0.42%	238	126		124
Kevin Dougherty	0.59%	169	61		78
Kevin Velo	0.97%	103	81		144
Kyle Westmoreland	0.48%	208	151		4
Logan McAllister	0.95%	105	51		15
Luke Guthrie	0.24%	417	276		99
Luke Gutschewski	0.47%	213	201		18
Marshall Meisel	0.54%	185	351	0.30%	52	-0.3	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Sandoval	0.01%	10000	301		131
Mason Andersen	2.19%	46	26		62
Matt Atkins	0.37%	270	161		68
Matt NeSmith	0.56%	179	251	0.20%	58	-0.2	PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	26	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Riedel	0.37%	270	251		138
Maxwell Moldovan	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	8	-0.2	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Feagles	0.32%	313	301		26
Michael Johnson	1.79%	56	41		2
Michael Miller	0.12%	833	301		78
Mitchell Meissner	1.17%	85	34		34
Myles Creighton	0.76%	132	126		78
Nelson Ledesma	0.20%	500	201		78
Nicholas Infanti	0.06%	1667	401		131
Nick Gabrelcik	0.57%	175	81		15
Nicolo Galletti	0.79%	127	111		11
Norman Xiong	0.78%	128	126		66
Parker Coody	0.21%	476	301		68
Parker Holekamp	0.00%	10000	501		144
Peter Kuest	0.32%	313	151		78
Petr Hruby	0.47%	213	201		78
Phichaksn Maichon	0.68%	147	141		151
Philip Knowles	0.22%	455	301		138
Preston Summerhays	0.09%	1111	401		131
Quentin Debove	0.11%	909	201		99
R.J. Manke	0.12%	833	501		52
Rayhan Thomas	0.57%	175	126		34
Rhein Gibson	0.57%	175	176		52
Ricardo Celia	0.22%	455	351		99
Rick Lamb	0.70%	143	151		26
Riley Lewis	0.21%	476	91		138
Rob Oppenheim	0.31%	323	201		109
Robbie Higgins	0.19%	526	401		148
Robby Shelton	0.69%	145	101		131
Roger Sloan	1.33%	75	67		124
Russell Knox	0.86%	116	71		99
Ryan Blaum	0.37%	270	201		68
Ryan Burnett	0.31%	323	251		118
Ryan Elmore	0.13%	769	1251	0.10%	124	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Grider	0.05%	2000	501		124
Ryan McCormick	0.49%	204	161		155
Ryan Sullivan	0.08%	1250	1001		68
Ryo Ishikawa	0.58%	172	126		26
Sam Choi	0.14%	714	501		78
Samuel Anderson	0.47%	213	201		109
Sandy Scott	1.41%	71	67		11
Sebastian Cappelen	0.50%	200	161		138
Segundo Oliva	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	4	2.35	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seung-Yul Noh	2.99%	33	21		78
Shad Tuten	0.90%	111	101		34
Spencer Levin	0.22%	455	401		124
Spencer Ralston	0.25%	400	401		124
Stuart Macdonald	1.22%	82	161	0.60%	34	-0.6	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Dickson	1.44%	69	36		78
Tom Whitney	0.63%	159	126		48
Tommy Cocha	0.08%	1250	1001		109
Travis Trace	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	78	-0.1	QuinnBet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips	1.47%	68	29		78
Trevor Cone	1.23%	81	34		78
Trey Winstead	0.73%	137	67		78
Turk Pettit	0.12%	833	111		48
Tyler Leach	0.20%	500	501		18
Tyler McCumber	0.27%	370	251		109
Tyler Wilkes	0.00%	10000	301		118
Tyson Alexander	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	34	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vicente Marzilio	0.16%	625	401		18
Will Cannon	0.34%	294	201		118
Will Chandler	0.67%	149	161		78
Will Gordon	0.62%	161	151		99
Wilson Furr	0.72%	139	161	0.10%	99	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	0.48%	208	151		15
Zach Smith	0.10%	1000	401		78
Zack Fischer	0.31%	323	101		11

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alex Vogelsong	0.10%	1000	176		10
Alex Weiss	0.28%	357	351		149
Alistair Docherty	0.88%	114	51		81
Alvaro Ortiz	0.51%	196	101		58
Andrew Kozan	0.34%	294	151		143
Ashton Van Horne	0.29%	345	161		58
Augusto Nunez	0.66%	152	126		3
Austin Duncan	0.46%	217	151		25
Austin Hitt	1.11%	90	91		3
Barend Botha	1.16%	86	67		25
Beau Breault	0.27%	370	151		130
Ben Carr	0.34%	294	161		10
Ben Taylor	0.55%	182	81		95
Billy Tom Sargent	0.90%	111	91		40
Blaine Hale	0.85%	118	161	0.20%	10	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Braden Thornberry	0.44%	227	126		40
Brandon Berry	0.24%	417	201		95
Brandon Hoelzer	0.82%	122	126		95
Brandon Matthews	0.23%	435	176		25
Brandon Wu	0.37%	270	101		130
Brett Stegmaier	0.71%	141	151		40
Brett White	1.04%	96	91		155
Bronson Burgoon	1.88%	53	56	0.10%	40	-0.1	VirginBet: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryce Lewis	0.46%	217	111		40
Bryson Nimmer	0.83%	120	111		95
Caleb VanArragon	1.42%	70	81	0.20%	1	5.6	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carl Yuan	0.50%	200	101		10
Carson Bacha	0.64%	156	101		81
Chad Sewell	0.53%	189	161		58
Charlie Nikitas	0.24%	417	201		117
Chez Reavie	0.57%	175	161		117
Chris Francoeur	0.29%	345	151		58
Chris Korte	1.75%	57	91	0.70%	25	-0.7	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christian Espinoza	0.07%	1429	501		149
Christian Salzer	0.17%	588	301		10
Cody Blick	0.27%	370	151		117
Cole Hammer	0.67%	149	51		117
Cole Sherwood	1.36%	74	51		81
Cooper Dossey	0.70%	143	71		81
Corey Shaun	0.17%	588	201		154
Cristobal Del Solar	1.11%	90	67		81
Dan McCarthy	0.65%	154	161		143
David Kocher	0.21%	476	176		40
Davis Lamb	1.19%	84	81		10
Davis Shore	0.75%	133	51		7
Derek Hitchner	0.41%	244	161		58
Dillon Stewart	0.67%	149	161		10
Doc Redman	0.59%	169	81		10
Drew Nesbitt	0.45%	222	161		58
Dylan Menante	0.66%	152	101		7
Gabriel Morgan-Birke	0.17%	588			58
Gustavo Silva	0.14%	714	501		7
Hayden Buckley	0.89%	112	61		130
Hunter Eichhorn	1.74%	57	46		130
Hunter Wolcott	0.44%	227	176		10
Ian Gilligan	1.59%	63	56		95
Ian Holt	1.91%	52	41		25
J.J. Grey	0.20%	500	351		58
Jackson Buchanan	0.31%	323	111		10
Jackson Van Paris	0.95%	105	51		95
Jacob Solomon	0.26%	385	301		95
Jake Peacock	0.23%	435	226		117
James Nicholas	1.09%	92	71		1
James Song	0.11%	909	501		95
Jay Card	0.34%	294	126		143
Jeremy Gandon	0.77%	130	67		10
Joe Weiler	1.01%	99	91		130
John DuBois	0.29%	345	126		156
John Marshall Butler	0.34%	294	161		130
John Pak	0.73%	137	67		81
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.86%	116	67		25
Joseph Bramlett	0.81%	123	46		81
Joshua Creel	0.28%	357	151		130
Justin Hastings	1.02%	98	91		81
Justin Suh	0.56%	179	86		58
Kaito Onishi	0.36%	278	111		117
Kevin Dougherty	0.45%	222	91		117
Kevin Velo	0.63%	159	71		95
Kyle Westmoreland	0.81%	123	111		25
Logan McAllister	1.13%	88	81		58
Luke Guthrie	0.60%	167	161		58
Luke Gutschewski	0.83%	120	111		10
Marshall Meisel	0.91%	110	161	0.30%	3	4.3125	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Sandoval	0.08%	1250	176		130
Mason Andersen	1.76%	57	41		25
Matt Atkins	0.69%	145	111		40
Matt NeSmith	0.86%	116	161	0.20%	25	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.48%	208	111		95
Matthew Riedel	0.35%	286	126		143
Maxwell Moldovan	0.47%	213	161		95
Michael Feagles	0.64%	156	161		10
Michael Johnson	0.86%	116	67		40
Michael Miller	0.21%	476	351		130
Mitchell Meissner	0.65%	154	67		58
Myles Creighton	0.55%	182	91		81
Nelson Ledesma	0.55%	182	151		95
Nicholas Infanti	0.17%	588	201		130
Nick Gabrelcik	0.46%	217	91		81
Nicolo Galletti	1.06%	94	101	0.10%	3	0.95	VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Norman Xiong	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	25	-0.1	VirginBet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Parker Coody	0.28%	357	201		40
Parker Holekamp	0.12%	833	251		149
Peter Kuest	0.72%	139	111		95
Petr Hruby	0.82%	122	111		81
Phichaksn Maichon	0.98%	102	111	0.10%	143	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Philip Knowles	0.30%	333	176		143
Preston Summerhays	0.22%	455	176		117
Quentin Debove	0.46%	217	151		95
R.J. Manke	0.20%	500	201		58
Rayhan Thomas	0.84%	119	101		40
Rhein Gibson	0.42%	238	126		40
Ricardo Celia	0.27%	370	176		130
Rick Lamb	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	40	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riley Lewis	0.60%	167	91		95
Rob Oppenheim	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	58	-0.1	VirginBet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robbie Higgins	0.51%	196	176		117
Robby Shelton	0.95%	105	91		149
Roger Sloan	1.31%	76	67		81
Russell Knox	0.58%	172	91		95
Ryan Blaum	0.37%	270	111		10
Ryan Burnett	0.31%	323	141		95
Ryan Elmore	0.23%	435	401		95
Ryan Grider	0.31%	323	251		117
Ryan McCormick	0.89%	112	111		81
Ryan Sullivan	0.37%	270	301		25
Ryo Ishikawa	0.86%	116	101		25
Sam Choi	0.23%	435	201		58
Samuel Anderson	0.83%	120	111		58
Sandy Scott	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	25	-0.1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Cappelen	0.79%	127	111		95
Segundo Oliva	0.54%	185	111		40
Seung-Yul Noh	2.03%	49	41		58
Shad Tuten	0.62%	161	101		130
Spencer Levin	0.26%	385	176		117
Spencer Ralston	0.28%	357	161		117
Stuart Macdonald	0.66%	152	81		40
Taylor Dickson	1.45%	69	67		40
Tom Whitney	1.03%	97	91		25
Tommy Cocha	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	149	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Travis Trace	1.09%	92	91		58
Trent Phillips	0.77%	130	51		117
Trevor Cone	0.71%	141	67		130
Trey Winstead	0.51%	196	91		58
Turk Pettit	0.41%	244	101		58
Tyler Leach	0.28%	357	201		40
Tyler McCumber	0.63%	159	161		40
Tyler Wilkes	0.11%	909	176		40
Tyson Alexander	0.47%	213	126		58
Vicente Marzilio	0.53%	189	176		10
Will Cannon	0.69%	145	126		95
Will Chandler	0.50%	200	111		81
Will Gordon	0.45%	222	111		95
Wilson Furr	1.03%	97	111	0.10%	58	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuta Sugiura	0.87%	115	101		58
Zach Smith	0.18%	556	201		95
Zack Fischer	0.32%	313	111		25

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Chris Korte	2.19%	46	101	1.20%	52	-2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Stuart Macdonald	1.22%	82	161	0.60%	34	-2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Chad Sewell	0.72%	139	301	0.40%	8	-2	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Chris Korte	1.75%	57	91	0.70%	25	-1	VirginBet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Marshall Meisel	0.91%	110	161	0.30%	3	14.375	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Caleb VanArragon	1.42%	70	81	0.20%	1	28	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rick Lamb	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	40	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Blaine Hale	0.85%	118	161	0.20%	10	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matt NeSmith	0.86%	116	161	0.20%	25	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.