Simulation Results: Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.04% 2500 601 110
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.35% 74 41 97
Alistair Docherty 0.93% 108 91 84
Alvaro Ortiz 1.58% 63 126 0.80% 18 -0.8 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Kozan 0.19% 526 301 27
Augusto Nunez 0.38% 263 201 59
Austin Cook 0.17% 588 226 71
Austin Greaser 0.28% 357 276 34
Austin Hitt 2.55% 39 46 0.40% 120 -0.4 Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 1.53% 65 41 38
Barend Botha 0.45% 222 131 64
Ben Taylor 0.60% 167 86 27
Billy Kennerly 0.15% 667 401 97
Billy Tom Sargent 0.13% 769 501 12
Bio Kim 0.37% 270 111 6
Blades Brown 1.05% 95 67 97
Blaine Hale 0.24% 417 301 43
Brandon Berry 0.29% 345 226 130
Brandon Harkins 0.04% 2500 751 43
Brandon Hoelzer 0.26% 385 401 38
Brendan Valdes 0.42% 238 101 27
Brendon Jelley 0.34% 294 301 34
Bronson Burgoon 0.62% 161 81 12
Bryce Lewis 0.61% 164 81 133
Bryson Nimmer 0.10% 1000 501 110
Caleb VanArragon 1.64% 61 81 0.40% 71 -0.4 PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carl Yuan 0.33% 303 151 34
Carter Jenkins 0.42% 238 151 71
Chandler Blanchet 1.91% 52 46 4
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.05% 2000 401 84
Christo Lamprecht 1.47% 68 51 18
Cody Blick 0.23% 435 201 84
Cole Hammer 0.33% 303 251 43
Cole Sherwood 0.42% 238 201 115
Cooper Dossey 0.68% 147 101 24
Dalton Ward 0.08% 1250 401 84
Dan McCarthy 0.69% 145 126 110
David Kocher 0.20% 500 251 120
Davis Chatfield 1.59% 63 41 126
Davis Shore 1.19% 84 71 97
Derek Bard 0.14% 714 401 84
Doc Redman 0.56% 179 176 43
Dylan Menante 1.95% 51 101 1.00% 38 -1 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emilio Gonzalez 2.23% 45 34 84
Etienne Papineau 0.30% 333 351 59
Fabian Gomez 0.45% 222 101 71
Grant Hirschman 0.09% 1111 401 97
Hank Lebioda 1.17% 85 67 43
Harry Hillier 0.16% 625 201 84
Ian Gilligan 1.06% 94 81 43
Ian Holt 1.00% 100 81 24
James Nicholas 0.30% 333 251 110
Jeffrey Kang 0.43% 233 111 4
Jeremy Gandon 0.52% 192 151 16
Joe Weiler 0.63% 159 161 71
John VanDerLaan 1.01% 99 67 1
Johnny Keefer 5.57% 18 17 126
Jonas Baumgartner 0.01% 10000 501 115
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.28% 357 201 8
Josh Teater 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 43 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joshua Creel 0.17% 588 251 53
Julian Suri 1.25% 80 51 97
Justin Suh 1.12% 89 67 9
Kensei Hirata 1.62% 62 51 130
Kevin Dougherty 0.72% 139 71 34
Kyle Westmoreland 0.21% 476 226 9
Logan McAllister 1.22% 82 126 0.40% 27 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Guthrie 0.10% 1000 276 84
M.J. Daffue 0.19% 526 201 53
Marcelo Rozo 0.43% 233 176 136
Marcus Plunkett 0.07% 1429 351 71
Mark Goetz 0.36% 278 301 18
Mark Lawrence 1.03% 97 226 0.60% 43 -0.6 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins 0.20% 500 251 43
Matt NeSmith 0.83% 120 81 59
Matthew Anderson 0.21% 476 301 71
Michael Johnson 1.11% 90 91 53
Mitchell Meissner 0.73% 137 86 38
Myles Creighton 0.37% 270 226 126
Nate Stember 0.03% 3333 601 97
Neal Shipley 2.03% 49 23 84
Nelson Ledesma 0.18% 556 251 115
Nick Gabrelcik 0.65% 154 141 64
Nicolo Galletti 2.56% 39 51 0.60% 59 -0.6 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Owen Stamper 0.10% 1000 501 12
Patrick Cover 0.24% 417 301 53
Patrick Welch 1.22% 82 91 0.10% 71 -0.1 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Kuest 0.70% 143 126 97
Petr Hruby 0.46% 217 201 84
Philip Knowles 0.29% 345 201 135
Pierceson Coody 1.19% 84 34 27
Pontus Nyholm 1.77% 56 51 18
Preston Summerhays 1.01% 99 81 59
Quade Cummins 2.06% 49 41 43
Rayhan Thomas 0.40% 250 226 71
Rhein Gibson 0.12% 833 251 84
Richy Werenski 0.20% 500 226 97
Rick Lamb 0.32% 313 226 53
Rob Oppenheim 0.28% 357 251 70
Robby Shelton 2.40% 42 34 71
Robert Streb 0.06% 1667 176 97
Roberto Diaz 0.12% 833 251 126
Roger Sloan 0.52% 192 176 64
Ross Steelman 1.25% 80 51 12
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.21% 476 226 97
Russell Knox 0.44% 227 141 71
Ryan Blaum 0.07% 1429 751 84
Ryan Burnett 0.23% 435 226 71
Ryan Hall 0.37% 270 251 71
Ryan McCormick 0.42% 238 176 97
Sam Bennett 0.11% 909 301 115
Samuel Anderson 0.27% 370 351 64
Sandy Scott 0.71% 141 151 130
Scott Piercy 0.33% 303 226 120
Sebastian Cappelen 0.45% 222 201 97
Seungtaek Lee 1.36% 74 76 6
Seung-Yul Noh 0.65% 154 81 16
Shad Tuten 1.40% 71 71 120
Spencer Levin 0.16% 625 351 120
Stuart Macdonald 0.78% 128 101 115
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.50% 200 101 120
T.J. Vogel 0.24% 417 251 84
Tanner Gore 0.07% 1429 1501 27
Taylor Montgomery 3.03% 33 19 27
Tom Whitney 0.37% 270 201 18
Travis Trace 0.14% 714 301 18
Trent Phillips 1.58% 63 67 0.10% 2 0.61 BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trey Winstead 0.94% 106 151 0.30% 24 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Duncan 0.97% 103 101 133
Tyson Alexander 0.63% 159 401 0.40% 110 -0.4 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Cannon 0.67% 149 111 64
William McGirt 0.32% 313 351 137
Wilson Furr 0.59% 169 131 9
Zach Bauchou 2.82% 35 26 64
Zach James 0.99% 101 131 0.20% 38 -0.2 Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zack Fischer 0.38% 263 176 53
Zecheng Dou 1.47% 68 61 2

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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