Simulation Results: Boise Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.05% 2000 751 130
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.26% 79 41 3
Alistair Docherty 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 69 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alvaro Ortiz 0.96% 104 176 0.40% 69 -0.4 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anders Albertson 0.24% 417 351 69
Andrew Kozan 0.12% 833 351 102
Augusto Nunez 0.52% 192 201 130
Austin Cook 0.44% 227 111 46
Austin Greaser 0.17% 588 401 40
Austin Hitt 1.17% 85 67 50
Austin Smotherman 2.56% 39 26 94
Barend Botha 0.50% 200 101 63
Ben Martin 1.41% 71 46 63
Ben Taylor 0.86% 116 111 58
Billy Kennerly 0.03% 3333 751 130
Billy Tom Sargent 0.17% 588 501 147
Bio Kim 0.25% 400 126 33
Blades Brown 0.79% 127 81 144
Blaine Hale 0.23% 435 351 102
Brandon Berry 0.13% 769 401 7
Brandon Crick 0.15% 667 351 69
Brandon Harkins 0.07% 1429 1001 147
Brandon Hoelzer 0.14% 714 501 15
Brendan Valdes 1.42% 70 67 152
Brendon Jelley 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 55 -0.1 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bronson Burgoon 0.11% 909 251 69
Bryce Lewis 1.37% 73 71 120
Bryson Nimmer 0.12% 833 501 102
Caleb VanArragon 0.39% 256 141 33
Carl Yuan 0.35% 286 151 102
Carter Jenkins 0.11% 909 201 102
Chandler Blanchet 3.73% 27 29 0.30% 58 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.06% 1667 401 83
Chesson Hadley 1.00% 100 51 149
Christo Lamprecht 1.38% 72 51 46
Clay Feagler 0.02% 5000 751 141
Cody Blick 0.16% 625 251 94
Cole Hammer 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 102 -0.1 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cole Sherwood 0.39% 256 251 69
Cooper Dossey 0.95% 105 81 126
Cooper Musselman 0.09% 1111 401 102
Dalton Ward 0.03% 3333 751 25
Dan McCarthy 0.55% 182 126 102
Daniel Summerhays 0.69% 145 67 102
David Kocher 0.25% 400 201 144
Davis Chatfield 1.51% 66 36 15
Davis Shore 0.60% 167 101 15
Dawson Armstrong 0.04% 2500 751 151
Derek Bard 0.20% 500 601 66
Diego Prone 0.05% 2000 1251 130
Doc Redman 0.89% 112 111 94
Dylan Menante 0.67% 149 161 13
Emilio Gonzalez 2.37% 42 51 0.40% 1 12.5 Ladbrokes: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Etienne Papineau 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 33 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabian Gomez 0.84% 119 101 83
Grant Hirschman 0.05% 2000 751 144
Hank Lebioda 1.56% 64 34 69
Harrison Ott 0.15% 667 351 83
Harry Hillier 0.36% 278 176 152
Hayden Springer 1.60% 63 36
Hunter Eichhorn 0.21% 476 226 120
Ian Gilligan 0.26% 385 151 40
Ian Holt 1.27% 79 81 130
Jackson Van Paris 0.14% 714 251 40
James Nicholas 0.16% 625 501 15
Jeffrey Kang 0.37% 270 176 2
Jeremy Gandon 0.81% 123 111 46
Jin Chung 0.01% 10000 1251 130
Joe Weiler 0.40% 250 201 102
John VanDerLaan 1.18% 85 81 15
Johnny Keefer 2.35% 43 23 15
Jonas Baumgartner 0.02% 5000 601 126
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.25% 400 111 94
Josh Teater 0.34% 294 251 141
Joshua Creel 0.10% 1000 501 50
Julian Suri 1.15% 87 61 7
Justin Suh 0.61% 164 111 94
Keenan Huskey 0.07% 1429 501 120
Kensei Hirata 1.94% 52 41 33
Kevin Dougherty 1.65% 61 51 33
Kyle Cottam 0.19% 526 401 83
Kyle Westmoreland 0.24% 417 301 55
Logan McAllister 0.39% 256 201 50
Luke Guthrie 0.11% 909 251 33
M.J. Daffue 0.35% 286 126 149
Marcelo Rozo 0.66% 152 201 0.20% 68 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Plunkett 0.09% 1111 601 130
Mark Goetz 0.07% 1429 401 69
Mark Lawrence 0.68% 147 176 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 40 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 0.93% 108 56 102
Matthew Anderson 0.29% 345 201 102
Michael Johnson 1.25% 80 81 25
Mitchell Meissner 1.07% 93 51 130
Myles Creighton 0.34% 294 301 141
Nate Stember 0.01% 10000 751 58
Neal Shipley 4.52% 22 21 33
Nelson Ledesma 0.18% 556 301 130
Nick Gabrelcik 0.87% 115 151 0.20% 69 -0.2 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolo Galletti 0.98% 102 101 7
Owen Stamper 0.13% 769 501 83
Patrick Cover 0.16% 625 401 94
Patrick Welch 0.46% 217 226 25
Peter Kuest 0.32% 313 126 69
Petr Hruby 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 13 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon 0.34% 294 201 102
Philip Knowles 0.28% 357 201 10
Pierceson Coody 2.68% 37 34 69
Pontus Nyholm 1.39% 72 67 15
Preston Summerhays 0.48% 208 101
Quade Cummins 2.98% 34 26 15
Rayhan Thomas 0.14% 714 351 58
Rhein Gibson 0.10% 1000 501 102
Richy Werenski 0.06% 1667 751 5
Rick Lamb 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 126 -0.1 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rob Oppenheim 0.13% 769 401 102
Robby Shelton 1.67% 60 41 69
Robert Streb 0.09% 1111 601 67
Roberto Diaz 0.19% 526 251 120
Roger Sloan 0.70% 143 126 55
Ross Steelman 1.58% 63 67 0.10% 25 -0.1 Unibet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.14% 714 251 25
Russell Knox 0.26% 385 251 3
Ryan Blaum 0.15% 667 601 152
Ryan Burnett 0.08% 1250 351 5
Ryan Hall 0.24% 417 351 10
Ryan McCormick 0.48% 208 161 102
Sam Bennett 0.11% 909 351 65
Samuel Anderson 0.41% 244 201 102
Sandy Scott 0.78% 128 126 25
Scott Piercy 0.40% 250 251 152
Sebastian Cappelen 0.16% 625 401 83
Seonghyeon Kim 2.06% 49 61 0.40% 83 -0.4 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seungtaek Lee 1.25% 80 81 10
Shad Tuten 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 15 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Spencer Levin 0.19% 526 251 126
Spencer Ralston 0.07% 1429 501 69
Stuart Macdonald 0.21% 476 201 58
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.28% 78 67 69
T.J. Vogel 0.40% 250 251 83
Tanner Gore 0.09% 1111 1001 120
Taylor Montgomery 1.79% 56 21 94
Tom Whitney 0.70% 143 126 83
Trace Crowe 1.59% 63 51 130
Travis Trace 0.16% 625 401 102
Trent Phillips 0.65% 154 126 25
Trey Winstead 0.22% 455 201 40
Tyler Duncan 0.85% 118 81 46
Tyson Alexander 0.44% 227 251 120
Will Cannon 0.74% 135 126 25
William McGirt 0.18% 556 601 50
Wilson Furr 0.91% 110 101 50
Zach Bauchou 1.49% 67 51 40
Zach James 0.89% 112 176 0.30% 130 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zack Fischer 0.35% 286 176 83
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 71 15

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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