Simulation Results: Bahamas Golf Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alistair Docherty 1.13% 88 26 123
Alvaro Ortiz 0.50% 200 126 27
Andrew Kozan 0.12% 833 501
Andrew Landry 0.24% 417 301 123
Ashton Van Horne 0.02% 5000 301 98
Augusto Nunez 0.53% 189 201 65
Austin Cook 0.10% 1000 301 31
Austin Greaser 0.25% 400 301 76
Austin Hitt 0.68% 147 101 31
Austin Smotherman 1.90% 53 41 4
Barend Botha 1.42% 70 86 0.30% 7 -0.3 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Taylor 1.27% 79 121 0.40% 31 -0.4 QuinnBet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Kennerly 0.19% 526 301 24
Brandon Berry 0.12% 833 351 31
Brandon Crick 0.99% 101 81 65
Brandon Harkins 0.33% 303 226 9
Bronson Burgoon 0.50% 200 301 0.20% Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb VanArragon 0.36% 278 251 65
Callum Tarren 1.02% 98 111 0.10% 98 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Champ 1.40% 71 51 65
Cameron Riley 0.00% 10000 1001 129
Carl Yuan 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carter Jenkins 0.58% 172 81 138
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.31% 323 151 53
Christo Lamprecht 1.93% 52 34 45
Clay Feagler 0.09% 1111 401 142
Cody Blick 0.34% 294 151 134
Cody Gribble 0.20% 500 351 118
Cole Hammer 0.39% 256 141 129
Cole Sherwood 0.58% 172 151 86
Cooper Musselman 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 84 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Shaun 0.44% 227 67 88
Dalton Ward 0.38% 263 301 129
Dan McCarthy 0.60% 167 101 86
David Kocher 0.33% 303 65
Davis Chatfield 0.96% 104 71 27
Davis Shore 0.39% 256 251 3
Dawie Van Der Walt 0.22% 455 451 140
Doc Redman 1.33% 75 36 98
Dylan Wu 1.61% 62 41 15
Emilio Gonzalez 0.80% 125 111 5
Erik Barnes 0.14% 714 601 142
Etienne Papineau 0.71% 141 226 0.30% 129 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Fabian Gomez 0.46% 217 81 107
Garrick Higgo 2.57% 39 51 0.60% 59 -0.6 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grant Hirschman 0.09% 1111 301 88
Hank Lebioda 0.57% 175 101 1
Harry Hillier 0.12% 833 251 122
Ian Holt 0.44% 227 161 45
Jack Maguire 0.51% 196 126
Jacob Solomon 0.52% 192 126 140
James Nicholas 0.25% 400 126 88
Jeff Overton 0.13% 769 501 107
Jeffrey Kang 0.33% 303 301 118
Jim Herman 0.35% 286 301 123
Jin Chung 0.05% 2000 226 59
Joe Weiler 0.55% 182 151 98
John Greco 0.01% 10000 401 39
John Keefer 2.61% 38 21 98
John VanDerLaan 0.69% 145 101 9
Jonas Baumgartner 0.18% 556 126 53
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.35% 286 251
Joseph Bramlett 2.75% 36 29 107
Josh Teater 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 45 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Suh 1.45% 69 51 98
Kevin Chappell 2.10% 48 41 24
Kevin Dougherty 0.86% 116 176 0.30% 107 -0.3 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Tway 1.99% 50 56 0.20% 53 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kyle Westmoreland 0.84% 119 81 76
Luke Guthrie 0.09% 1111 251 76
M.J. Daffue 0.51% 196 151 88
Marcelo Rozo 0.23% 435 251 59
Marcus Plunkett 0.05% 2000 251 88
Matt Atkins 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 1.19% 84 81 39
Matthew Anderson 0.48% 208 201 118
Michael Johnson 0.30% 333 226 107
Mitchell Meissner 0.79% 127 101 39
Myles Creighton 0.37% 270 251 31
Nate Stember 0.00% 10000 101 65
Neal Shipley 2.66% 38 29 88
Nelson Ledesma 0.34% 294 251 123
Nick Gabrelcik 0.38% 263 121 65
Nick Watney 0.68% 147 201 0.20% 31 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolo Galletti 0.34% 294 126 45
Norman Xiong 0.76% 132 161 0.10% William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Owen Stamper 0.00% 10000 301 59
Patrick Cover 0.29% 345 301 123
Paul Barjon 0.27% 370 276 88
Paul Haley 0.19% 526 107
Peter Kuest 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 15 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.29% 345 201 84
Pierceson Coody 1.57% 64 29 7
Pontus Nyholm 0.77% 130 71 24
Rayhan Thomas 0.67% 149 61 27
Rhein Gibson 0.28% 357 251 39
Richy Werenski 1.05% 95 126 0.30% 129 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rick Lamb 0.67% 149 81 9
Rob Oppenheim 0.12% 833 451 15
Robby Shelton 2.86% 35 41 0.40% 31 -0.4 QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Streb 0.48% 208 161 53
Roberto Diaz 0.62% 161 101 15
Ross Steelman 0.33% 303 161 9
Russell Knox 1.82% 55 101 0.80% 9 -0.8 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Armour 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 45 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Brehm 0.60% 167 401 0.40% 76 -0.4 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett 0.22% 455 301 83
Ryan McCormick 1.02% 98 126 0.20% 45 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Bennett 0.92% 109 81 134
Samuel Anderson 0.19% 526 251 59
Sandy Scott 0.35% 286 201 15
Sangmoon Bae 0.48% 208 126
Scott Gutschewski 0.51% 196 201 107
Scott Piercy 0.84% 119 251 0.40% 136 -0.4 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean O'Hair 0.50% 200 501 0.30% 98 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 0.02% 5000 501 6
Seonghyeon Kim 2.01% 50 67 0.50% 2 3.875 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seth Reeves 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 76 -0.1 QuinnBet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seungtaek Lee 0.63% 159 91 39
Seung-Yul Noh 2.70% 37 31 15
Spencer Levin 0.26% 385 76
Stuart Macdonald 0.22% 455 226 137
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.17% 588 201 88
Taiga Semikawa 2.82% 35 31 65
Tanner Gore 0.18% 556 451 45
Tano Goya 0.68% 147 121 138
Thomas Walsh 0.46% 217 201 107
Tom Whitney 1.34% 75 101 0.40% 88 -0.4 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Gainey 0.24% 417 401 107
Trace Crowe 0.81% 123 81 9
Trent Phillips 0.91% 110 201 0.40% 27 -0.4 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trey Winstead 0.52% 192 91 39
Tyler Duncan 1.36% 74 51 65
Tyson Alexander 0.85% 118 151 0.20% 123 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Covello 0.00% 10000 751 65
Wil Bateman 0.81% 123 176 0.20% 142 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Cannon 0.39% 256 201 31
William McGirt 1.16% 86 131 0.40% 98 -0.4 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Wilson Furr 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 107 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 1.60% 63 61 15
Zach James 0.25% 400 251 107
Zack Fischer 0.17% 588 176 118
Zecheng Dou 1.14% 88 81 45

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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