Simulation Results: Bahamas Golf Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alistair Docherty	0.72%	139	101		129
Alvaro Ortiz	1.27%	79	111	0.40%	33	-0.4	QuinnBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook	0.32%	313	201		75
Austin Hitt	0.85%	118	71		108
Barend Botha	1.99%	50	46		22
Ben Kohles	2.56%	39	26		19
Ben Martin	2.81%	36	61	1.20%	13	-1.2	QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman	2.52%	40	21		51
Ben Taylor	0.90%	111	111		51
Blades Brown	1.29%	78	56		75
Braden Thornberry	0.86%	116	176	0.30%	131	-0.3	QuinnBet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Matthews	0.01%	10000	601		51
Brandon Wu	0.44%	227	201		58
Brendon Todd	0.03%	3333	301		117
Brett White	0.16%	625	251		58
Bronson Burgoon	0.65%	154	101		16
Bryce Lewis	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	44	-0.1	QuinnBet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.07%	1429	301		6
Caleb VanArragon	0.69%	145	151		13
Cameron Champ	1.11%	90	61		100
Cameron Riley	0.00%	10000	2001		108
Camilo Villegas	0.98%	102	56		51
Carson Bacha	0.26%	385	126		100
Carson Young	2.65%	38	46	0.50%	70	-0.5	QuinnBet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chad Sewell	0.04%	2500	501		58
Chan Kim	2.20%	45	34		28
Chez Reavie	0.54%	185	151		128
Christian Salzer	0.05%	2000	401		100
Cole Hammer	0.29%	345	151		28
Cole Sherwood	0.41%	244	101		6
Cooper Dossey	0.91%	110	51		6
Cristobal Del Solar	0.41%	244	276		89
Dan McCarthy	0.25%	400	226		89
Daniel Summerhays	0.58%	172	111		129
David Perkins	0.40%	250	226		108
David Skinns	1.39%	72	71		16
Davis Lamb	0.28%	357	126		22
Davis Shore	1.31%	76	61		39
Derek Hitchner	0.23%	435	151		108
Dillon Stewart	0.34%	294	276		75
Doc Redman	2.69%	37	41	0.30%	44	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Drew Nesbitt	0.16%	625	201		117
Dylan Menante	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	6	-0.1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frankie Capan	0.95%	105	71		89
Greyson Sigg	3.66%	27	21
Harry Higgs	1.58%	63	71	0.20%	28	-0.2	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Harry Hillier	0.22%	455	351		66
Hayden Buckley	1.47%	68	91	0.40%	44	-0.4	QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Springer	2.10%	48	41		39
Hunter Eichhorn	0.22%	455	501		6
Ian Gilligan	0.62%	161	71		75
Ian Holt	0.86%	116	61		22
Jack Maguire	0.33%	303	151		120
Jackson Buchanan	0.61%	164	101		33
James Nicholas	0.43%	233	126		58
James Song	0.01%	10000	2001		124
Jay Card	0.16%	625	201		19
Jeff Overton	0.02%	5000	601		3
Jeremy Gandon	0.62%	161	126		75
Jeremy Paul	1.95%	51	71	0.50%	44	-0.5	QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jimmy Stanger	0.24%	417	276		89
Joe Weiler	0.50%	200	151		100
John Marshall Butler	0.18%	556	276		44
John Pak	3.26%	31	41	0.80%	28	-0.8	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.29%	345	251		6
Joseph Bramlett	1.82%	55	81	0.60%	51	-0.6	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Teater	0.66%	152	151		120
Julian Suri	0.71%	141	91		75
Justin Hastings	0.86%	116	126	0.10%	33	-0.1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Suh	1.23%	81	71		44
Kaito Onishi	0.20%	500	351		33
Kevin Dougherty	0.78%	128	126		124
Kevin Velo	0.82%	122	91		51
Kyle Westmoreland	0.24%	417	201		75
Logan McAllister	0.52%	192	176		6
Marshall Meisel	0.00%	10000	501		100
Martin Laird	1.46%	68	71	0.10%	108	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Andersen	0.99%	101	151	0.30%	3	4.05	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Atkins	0.37%	270	151		22
Matt NeSmith	1.05%	95	151	0.40%	75	-0.4	QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.21%	476	201		120
Matthew Riedel	0.92%	109	201	0.40%	89	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Feagles	0.06%	1667	301		22
Michael Johnson	0.81%	123	101		16
Mitchell Meissner	1.18%	85	46		100
Myles Creighton	0.40%	250	276		108
Nicholas Infanti	0.05%	2000	501		89
Nick Gabrelcik	0.42%	238	126		39
Nick Hardy	1.41%	71	81	0.20%	33	-0.2	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolo Galletti	1.12%	89	71		66
Norman Xiong	0.66%	152	251	0.30%	108	-0.3	QuinnBet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Parker Coody	0.23%	435	201		58
Patrick Welch	0.39%	256	251		124
Paul Barjon	0.09%	1111	251		75
Paul Peterson	1.21%	83	71		19
Peter Kuest	0.54%	185	81		89
Phichaksn Maichon	0.25%	400	141		89
Philip Knowles	0.11%	909	301		70
Preston Summerhays	0.40%	250	176		120
Rayhan Thomas	0.48%	208	126		33
Rhein Gibson	0.17%	588	226		75
Rick Lamb	0.67%	149	111		22
Rob Oppenheim	0.18%	556	301		89
Robby Shelton	1.11%	90	101	0.10%	75	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Roger Sloan	0.54%	185	101		2
Ross Steelman	1.44%	69	67		89
Russell Knox	0.65%	154	67		70
Ryan Brehm	0.14%	714	301		51
Ryan Sullivan	0.00%	10000	1001		108
Ryo Ishikawa	1.07%	93	111	0.20%	58	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Choi	0.13%	769	276		100
Samuel Anderson	0.27%	370	251		39
Sandy Scott	0.70%	143	111		58
Sebastian Cappelen	0.49%	204	151		100
Seung-Yul Noh	1.52%	66	46		74
Shad Tuten	0.73%	137	126		70
Spencer Levin	0.15%	667	276		117
Stuart Macdonald	0.30%	333	151		28
Taylor Dickson	0.49%	204	401	0.20%	1	48	Skybet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.93%	52	46		68
Theo Humphrey	0.15%	667	201		75
Trent Phillips	1.11%	90	26		3
Trevor Cone	2.18%	46	34		13
Trey Winstead	0.64%	156	151		39
Tyler Duncan	0.93%	108	111		108
Tyler Leach	0.01%	10000	1501		44
Tyler McCumber	0.03%	3333	501
Tyson Alexander	0.26%	385	301		124
Vicente Marzilio	0.05%	2000	501		69
Will Chandler	0.34%	294	201		89
Will Gordon	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	58	-0.2	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Wilson Furr	0.72%	139	81		75

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alistair Docherty	0.85%	118	91		131
Alvaro Ortiz	1.00%	100	101		26
Austin Cook	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	75	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Austin Hitt	0.87%	115	67		104
Barend Botha	1.15%	87	51		116
Ben Kohles	1.38%	72	34		3
Ben Martin	1.43%	70	56		3
Ben Silverman	1.33%	75	34		57
Ben Taylor	0.94%	106	91		26
Blades Brown	1.08%	93	67		57
Braden Thornberry	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	130	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brandon Matthews	0.19%	526	251		26
Brandon Wu	0.68%	147	141		57
Brendon Todd	0.27%	370	201		26
Brett White	0.48%	208	151		104
Bronson Burgoon	0.85%	118	91		75
Bryce Lewis	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	116	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Bryson Nimmer	0.38%	263	201		26
Caleb VanArragon	0.76%	132	111		39
Cameron Champ	0.95%	105	67		75
Cameron Riley	0.07%	1429	351		104
Camilo Villegas	0.91%	110	56		5
Carson Bacha	0.58%	172	101		39
Carson Young	1.42%	70	41		16
Chad Sewell	0.38%	263	301		75
Chan Kim	1.25%	80	36		91
Chez Reavie	0.72%	139	111		129
Christian Salzer	0.37%	270	251		116
Cole Hammer	0.59%	169	111		39
Cole Sherwood	0.66%	152	91		26
Cooper Dossey	0.99%	101	51		5
Cristobal Del Solar	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	104	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Dan McCarthy	0.57%	175	141		26
Daniel Summerhays	0.74%	135	111		123
David Perkins	0.66%	152	126		104
David Skinns	1.03%	97	61		57
Davis Lamb	0.58%	172	91		26
Davis Shore	1.07%	93	56		91
Derek Hitchner	0.56%	179	126		75
Dillon Stewart	0.66%	152	201	0.20%	123	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Doc Redman	1.32%	76	46		57
Drew Nesbitt	0.45%	222	126		104
Dylan Menante	0.91%	110	101		5
Frankie Capan	0.90%	111	67		26
Greyson Sigg	1.64%	61	34
Harry Higgs	1.13%	88	67		39
Harry Hillier	0.50%	200	201		91
Hayden Buckley	1.14%	88	86		57
Hayden Springer	1.26%	79	41		26
Hunter Eichhorn	0.59%	169	301	0.30%	39	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ian Gilligan	0.74%	135	67		75
Ian Holt	0.90%	111	67		16
Jack Maguire	0.62%	161	111		104
Jackson Buchanan	0.79%	127	91		26
James Nicholas	0.68%	147	111		16
James Song	0.23%	435	401		116
Jay Card	0.50%	200	126		16
Jeff Overton	0.29%	345	301		75
Jeremy Gandon	0.76%	132	101		75
Jeremy Paul	1.26%	79	67		5
Jimmy Stanger	0.52%	192	201		75
Joe Weiler	0.77%	130	126		16
John Marshall Butler	0.43%	233	151		1
John Pak	1.44%	69	41		16
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.62%	161	151		57
Joseph Bramlett	1.15%	87	81		39
Josh Teater	0.79%	127	141	0.10%	116	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Julian Suri	0.77%	130	91		91
Justin Hastings	0.93%	108	111		39
Justin Suh	1.04%	96	67		1
Kaito Onishi	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	75	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Kevin Dougherty	0.81%	123	101		26
Kevin Velo	0.88%	114	81		91
Kyle Westmoreland	0.56%	179	141		104
Logan McAllister	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
Marshall Meisel	0.05%	2000	301		128
Martin Laird	1.14%	88	81		104
Mason Andersen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	57	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matt Atkins	0.65%	154	111		39
Matt NeSmith	0.99%	101	111	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Anderson	0.50%	200	141		57
Matthew Riedel	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	116	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Feagles	0.34%	294	201		39
Michael Johnson	0.91%	110	91		16
Mitchell Meissner	1.00%	100	46		39
Myles Creighton	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Nicholas Infanti	0.34%	294	111		57
Nick Gabrelcik	0.70%	143	67		75
Nick Hardy	1.12%	89	81		39
Nicolo Galletti	0.97%	103	67		57
Norman Xiong	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	75	-0.1	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Parker Coody	0.59%	169	141		39
Patrick Welch	0.70%	143	151		75
Paul Barjon	0.39%	256	201		123
Paul Peterson	1.07%	93	81		16
Peter Kuest	0.72%	139	71		57
Phichaksn Maichon	0.55%	182	101		104
Philip Knowles	0.46%	217	201		16
Preston Summerhays	0.67%	149	141		123
Rayhan Thomas	0.69%	145	111		5
Rhein Gibson	0.52%	192	201		104
Rick Lamb	0.71%	141	91		57
Rob Oppenheim	0.49%	204	201		104
Robby Shelton	0.93%	108	91		39
Roger Sloan	0.74%	135	91		5
Ross Steelman	1.10%	91	67		91
Russell Knox	0.77%	130	71		91
Ryan Brehm	0.37%	270	201		91
Ryan Sullivan	0.05%	2000	351		116
Ryo Ishikawa	0.98%	102	101		39
Sam Choi	0.46%	217	201		5
Samuel Anderson	0.56%	179	141		91
Sandy Scott	0.79%	127	91		91
Sebastian Cappelen	0.68%	147	111		39
Seung-Yul Noh	1.02%	98	51		5
Shad Tuten	0.85%	118	111		5
Spencer Levin	0.45%	222	201		123
Stuart Macdonald	0.63%	159	111		39
Taylor Dickson	0.74%	135	201	0.20%	39	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	1.28%	78	56		26
Theo Humphrey	0.46%	217	126		75
Trent Phillips	0.98%	102	34		39
Trevor Cone	1.34%	75	36		57
Trey Winstead	0.85%	118	111		5
Tyler Duncan	0.92%	109	91		91
Tyler Leach	0.18%	556	351		5
Tyler McCumber	0.25%	400	226
Tyson Alexander	0.54%	185	201		75
Vicente Marzilio	0.30%	333	301		57
Will Chandler	0.60%	167	141		57
Will Gordon	0.96%	104	91		57
Wilson Furr	0.81%	123	67		75

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ben Martin	2.81%	36	61	1.20%	13	-2	QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: John Pak	3.26%	31	41	0.80%	28	-2	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Joseph Bramlett	1.82%	55	81	0.60%	51	-2	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hunter Eichhorn	0.59%	169	301	0.30%	39	-1	Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Braden Thornberry	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	130	-1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Cristobal Del Solar	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	104	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Dillon Stewart	0.66%	152	201	0.20%	57	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Taylor Dickson	0.74%	135	201	0.20%	75	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Mason Andersen	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	57	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.