Simulation Results: BMW Charity Pro-Am

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Baddeley	0.02%	5000	501		145
Adam Hadwin	0.97%	103	61		7
Alex Vogelsong	0.06%	1667	501		122
Alistair Docherty	1.20%	83	56		17
Alvaro Ortiz	1.03%	97	71		40
Andrew Kozan	0.16%	625	301		145
Ashton Van Horne	0.55%	182	401	0.30%	40	-0.3	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Augusto Nunez	0.23%	435	151		150
Austin Duncan	0.08%	1250	401		26
Austin Hitt	0.89%	112	81		89
Barend Botha	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	33	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Carr	1.70%	59	71	0.30%	114	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Kohles	1.80%	56	51		1
Ben Martin	0.33%	303	151		89
Ben Taylor	1.69%	59	71	0.30%	67	-0.3	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Tom Sargent	0.15%	667	401		114
Blades Brown	4.99%	20	13		17
Blaine Hale	0.36%	278	251		99
Braden Thornberry	0.15%	667	301		39
Brandon Berry	0.16%	625	401		145
Brandon Harkins	0.32%	313	201		99
Brandon Matthews	0.00%	10000	1001		152
Brett Stegmaier	0.12%	833	351		99
Brett White	0.16%	625	401		122
Bryce Lewis	0.73%	137	101		133
Bryson Nimmer	0.07%	1429	501		114
Caleb VanArragon	1.82%	55	41		26
Carson Bacha	0.34%	294	151		139
Chad Sewell	0.20%	500	301		122
Chan Kim	2.61%	38	36		3
Chesson Hadley	0.21%	476	276		99
Chez Reavie	1.23%	81	101	0.20%	33	-0.2	Star Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Francoeur	0.47%	213	301	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Korte	0.54%	185	201		152
Cody Blick	0.03%	3333	501		151
Cole Hammer	0.87%	115	81		26
Cole Sherwood	2.20%	45	41		7
Cooper Dossey	3.40%	29	21		80
Cristobal Del Solar	0.36%	278	176		7
D.A. Points	0.00%	10000	1251		145
Dan McCarthy	0.10%	1000	401		67
Daniel Azallion	0.02%	5000	1001		67
Daniel Summerhays	0.16%	625	276		64
David Kocher	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	122	-0.1	Star Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Lamb	0.72%	139	91		99
Davis Shore	2.19%	46	46		80
Derek Hitchner	0.38%	263	276		114
Dillon Stewart	0.02%	5000	1001		157
Doc Redman	2.71%	37	29		80
Dylan Menante	1.66%	60	41		99
Fabian Gomez	0.64%	156	126		3
Harry Higgs	0.83%	120	226	0.40%	58	-0.4	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Buckley	1.71%	58	91	0.60%	67	-0.6	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Henrik Norlander	0.35%	286	151		40
Hunter Eichhorn	1.65%	61	36		17
Ian Gilligan	1.09%	92	41		114
Ian Holt	1.13%	88	81		122
J.J. Grey	0.02%	5000	1001		40
Jackson Buchanan	0.12%	833			122
Jackson Ormond	0.00%	10000	1001		152
Jackson Van Paris	0.23%	435	201		114
Jacob Solomon	0.48%	208	201		80
Jake Peacock	0.18%	556	251		40
James Nicholas	0.75%	133	101		89
James Song	0.00%	10000	1001		122
Jay Card	0.47%	213	201		17
Jeff Overton	0.02%	5000	1251		60
Jeremy Gandon	0.79%	127	81		99
Jeremy Paul	0.99%	101	86		48
Jim Herman	0.02%	5000	1001		133
Joe Weiler	0.31%	323	251		133
John Marshall Butler	1.02%	98	101		80
John Pak	2.03%	49	41		7
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.85%	118	61		139
Jorge Garcia	0.33%	303	301		80
Joseph Bramlett	1.90%	53	41		145
Josh Teater	0.48%	208	226		67
Joshua Creel	0.16%	625	401		89
Julian Suri	0.20%	500	351		40
Justin Hastings	0.11%	909	501		67
Justin Suh	0.70%	143	81		114
Kevin Dougherty	0.50%	200	226	0.10%	89	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Cottam	0.27%	370	401		17
Kyle Westmoreland	0.45%	222	176		54
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.14%	714	276		67
Logan McAllister	0.67%	149	151		2
Luke Guthrie	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luke Gutschewski	0.61%	164	276	0.20%	54	-0.2	Star Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mahanth Chirravuri	1.13%	88	81		133
Marshall Meisel	0.10%	1000	601		80
Mason Andersen	0.64%	156	176	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Atkins	1.18%	85	81		122
Matt NeSmith	0.19%	526	301		12
Matthew Anderson	0.16%	625	351		114
Matthew Riedel	0.14%	714	501		99
Maxwell Moldovan	0.59%	169	201	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Feagles	0.17%	588	351		89
Michael Johnson	2.29%	44	34		99
Mitchell Meissner	1.57%	64	46		99
Myles Creighton	0.15%	667	401
Nelson Ledesma	0.13%	769	351		67
Nicholas Infanti	0.05%	2000	751
Nick Gabrelcik	0.40%	250	131		139
Nicolo Galletti	0.86%	116	76		67
Noah Goodwin	0.58%	172	111		54
Paul Barjon	0.04%	2500	1501		17
Peter Kuest	0.33%	303	401	0.10%			Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby	0.52%	192	301	0.20%	48	-0.2	Betway: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon	0.30%	333	351		80
Philip Knowles	0.34%	294	301		99
Preston Summerhays	0.09%	1111	501		7
R.J. Manke	0.03%	3333	501		64
Rayhan Thomas	0.41%	244	201		3
Rhein Gibson	0.20%	500	351		122
Ricardo Celia	0.21%	476	501		26
Richy Werenski	0.07%	1429	301		157
Rob Oppenheim	0.18%	556	251		89
Robbie Higgins	0.07%	1429	501		139
Robby Shelton	0.96%	104	86		67
Roger Sloan	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	89	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Steelman	2.35%	43	41		33
Ryan Blaum	0.21%	476	226		40
Ryan Brehm	0.13%	769	601		99
Ryan Burnett	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick	0.25%	400	276		12
Ryan Sullivan	0.03%	3333	751		152
Ryo Ishikawa	0.84%	119	126		12
Sam Choi	0.29%	345	401		60
Sandy Scott	1.42%	70	51		159
Scott Piercy	0.51%	196	226	0.10%	99	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastian Cappelen	0.14%	714	401		58
Seung-Yul Noh	1.81%	55	41		33
Spencer Levin	0.09%	1111	1001		139
Stuart Macdonald	0.32%	313	226		139
Taylor Dickson	0.27%	370	201		3
Theo Humphrey	0.33%	303	276		54
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.72%	139	201	0.20%	66	-0.2	Betway: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney	0.35%	286	201		26
Travis Trace	1.51%	66	91	0.40%	67	-0.4	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trent Phillips	1.37%	73	51		26
Trevor Cone	0.81%	123	81		122
Trey Winstead	0.20%	500	251		62
Troy Merritt	0.26%	385	151		122
Turk Pettit	1.02%	98	91		80
Tyler Duncan	0.62%	161	161		152
Tyler Leach	0.17%	588	401		48
Tyler Wilkes	0.32%	313	201		99
Tyson Alexander	0.08%	1250	351		99
Vicente Marzilio	0.25%	400	301		26
Will Cannon	0.64%	156	151		33
Will Chandler	0.25%	400	201		48
Will Gordon	0.39%	256	401	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Jennings	0.00%	10000			12
Wilson Furr	0.27%	370	161		133
Yuta Sugiura	0.73%	137	126		62
Zac Blair	1.90%	53	29		40

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hayden Buckley	1.71%	58	91	0.60%	67	-2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Travis Trace	1.51%	66	91	0.40%	67	-2	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Harry Higgs	0.83%	120	226	0.40%	58	-2	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.