Simulation Results: BWM Charity Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.44% 227 251 108
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.79% 36 26 13
Alex Goff 0.09% 1111 301 68
Alistair Docherty 1.25% 80 51 79
Andrew Kozan 0.37% 270 176 79
Andrew Landry 0.11% 909 1001 135
Andrew Loupe 0.70% 143 351 0.40% 154 -0.4 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Augusto Nunez 1.43% 70 67 38
Austin Cook 0.24% 417 251 79
Austin Hitt 0.80% 125 201 0.30% 17 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Smotherman 2.35% 43 46 0.20% 1 5.4 Boyle Sports: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Taylor 1.14% 88 67 56
Bill Haas 0.31% 323 201 160
Billy Kennerly 0.49% 204 201 149
Billy Tom Sargent 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 24 -0.1 Betfair: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blades Brown 1.03% 97 61 24
Blaine Hale 0.49% 204 151 17
Bo Hoag 0.14% 714 351 59
Brandon Berry 0.19% 526 301 99
Brandon Crick 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 99 -0.1 Betfair: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.26% 385 276 108
Brandon Hoelzer 0.42% 238 201 59
Brendan Valdes 0.05% 2000 46 68
Brendon Jelley 0.18% 556 401 59
Bryce Lewis 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 10 -0.2 Betfair: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.65% 154 126 17
Caleb VanArragon 0.65% 154 226 0.20% 79 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carl Yuan 0.31% 323 251 2
Carter Jenkins 0.85% 118 67 68
Charles Huntzinger 0.13% 769 401 48
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.13% 769 601 79
Chesson Hadley 0.46% 217 81 79
Chris Baker 0.29% 345 401 99
Clay Feagler 0.14% 714 501 99
Cody Blick 0.31% 323 251 122
Cole Hammer 0.28% 357 276 99
Cole Sherwood 0.63% 159 126 32
Cooper Dossey 0.78% 128 126 68
Dalton Ward 0.24% 417 401 135
Dan McCarthy 0.93% 108 64
David Kocher 0.32% 313 251 36
Davis Chatfield 1.91% 52 41 66
Davis Shore 0.74% 135 101 17
Dawson Armstrong 0.18% 556 351 149
Derek Bard 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 135 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Doc Redman 0.68% 147 101 17
Dylan Menante 1.71% 58 67 0.20% 48 -0.2 William Hill: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Etienne Papineau 0.37% 270 301 108
Everett Whiten 0.05% 2000 1001 68
Fabian Gomez 0.74% 135 126 56
Gavin Cohen 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 108 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
George McNeill 0.23% 435 401 42
Grant Hirschman 0.20% 500 351 135
Hank Lebioda 1.84% 54 41 24
Harry Hillier 0.39% 256 151 135
Ian Gilligan 1.65% 61 51 79
Ian Holt 0.98% 102 151 0.30% 48 -0.3 Priced Up: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Van Paris 1.14% 88 71 122
James Nicholas 0.46% 217 151 143
Jeffrey Kang 0.90% 111 91 91
Jeremy Gandon 0.70% 143 81 147
Jimmy Gunn 0.01% 10000 1001 122
Jin Chung 0.08% 1250 601 99
Joe Weiler 0.89% 112 126 0.10% 59 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Greco 0.05% 2000 1001 108
John Rollins 0.02% 5000 1501 91
John VanDerLaan 0.80% 125 126 122
Jonas Baumgartner 0.09% 1111 1001 158
Jonathan Byrd 0.30% 333 301 48
Josh Teater 0.89% 112 81 79
Joshua Creel 0.36% 278 226 13
Julian Etulain 0.27% 370 301 91
Julian Suri 0.56% 179 151 91
Justin Suh 2.15% 47 41 155
Keenan Huskey 0.12% 833 501 48
Kensei Hirata 1.26% 79 56 7
Kevin Chappell 0.43% 233 176 122
Kevin Dougherty 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 36 -0.1 Betfair: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
KK Limbhasut 0.26% 385 301 67
Kyle Cottam 0.13% 769 501 79
Kyle Westmoreland 0.55% 182 151 108
Logan McAllister 0.67% 149 91 48
Luis Gerardo Garza 0.21% 476 351 122
Luke Guthrie 0.10% 1000 401 108
M.J. Daffue 0.38% 263 251 32
Marcelo Rozo 0.45% 222 201 32
Marcus Plunkett 0.11% 909 501 68
Mark Goetz 0.17% 588 501 7
Mark Lawrence 2.20% 45 161 1.60% 24 -1.6 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Laird 0.72% 139 67 79
Matt Atkins 0.37% 270 751 0.20% 79 -0.2 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt NeSmith 1.44% 69 51 64
Michael Johnson 1.71% 58 67 0.20% 79 -0.2 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mitchell Meissner 2.42% 41 34 6
Nate Stember 0.23% 435 251 68
Neal Shipley 1.20% 83 61 59
Nelson Ledesma 0.22% 455 251 68
Nick Gabrelcik 0.75% 133 101 91
Nicolo Galletti 0.26% 385 351 5
Omar Morales 0.40% 250 101 156
Owen Stamper 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 122 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Cover 0.40% 250 201 108
Patrick Welch 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 122 -0.1 Betfair: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Barjon 0.13% 769 751 158
Paul Haley 0.15% 667 601 147
Peter Kuest 0.25% 400 601 0.10% 149 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.22% 455 501 42
Phichaksn Maichon 0.02% 5000 81 56
Pierceson Coody 2.65% 38 21 2
Pontus Nyholm 1.61% 62 34 108
Preston Summerhays 0.33% 303 91 48
Raul Pereda 0.11% 909 401 68
Rayhan Thomas 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rhein Gibson 0.28% 357 251 156
Richy Werenski 0.46% 217 226 135
Rick Lamb 0.86% 116 91 99
Rob Oppenheim 0.36% 278 151 135
Robby Shelton 0.80% 125 91 38
Robert Streb 0.27% 370 301 122
Roberto Diaz 0.66% 152 151 108
Ross Steelman 1.78% 56 41 10
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.34% 294 251 38
Ryan Armour 0.25% 400 351 68
Ryan Blaum 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 108 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Brehm 0.18% 556 751 122
Ryan Burnett 0.35% 286 301 143
Ryan Hall 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 122 -0.1 Betfair: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick 1.03% 97 56 143
Sam Bennett 0.33% 303 226 122
Sampson Zheng 0.47% 213 91
Samuel Anderson 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 42 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Piercy 0.55% 182 301 0.20% 10 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 0.56% 179 301 0.20% 2 7.4 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Moss 0.02% 5000 101 122
Seonghyeon Kim 3.05% 33 31 24
Seth Reeves 0.22% 455 301 135
Seungtaek Lee 2.12% 47 34 31
Seung-Yul Noh 1.50% 67 76 0.20% 24 -0.2 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Spencer Levin 0.22% 455 501 13
Spencer Ralston 0.26% 385 301 48
T.J. Vogel 0.35% 286 276 91
Tanner Gore 0.43% 233 276 0.10% 68 -0.1 BetGoodwin: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tanner Napier 0.08% 1250 501 153
Tano Goya 0.49% 204 201 108
Thomas Walsh 0.85% 118 161 0.20% 17 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Whitney 0.70% 143 151 38
Tommy Gainey 0.17% 588 501 99
Trace Crowe 2.43% 41 26 108
Travis Trace 0.26% 385 351 7
Trent Phillips 0.75% 133 51 24
Trey Winstead 0.89% 112 91 13
Tyler Duncan 0.99% 101 76 91
Tyson Alexander 1.09% 92 141 0.40% 32 -0.4 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Cannon 0.28% 357 251 17
William McGirt 0.50% 200 351 0.20% 108 -0.2 Betway: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Nottingham 0.00% 10000 351 42

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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