Simulation Results: Astara Golf Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Abel Gallegos 0.02% 5000 1001 81
Adam Long 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 83 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alistair Docherty 2.21% 45 26 26
Alvaro Ortiz 0.48% 208 126 105
Andrew Kozan 0.07% 1429 601 72
Andrew Landry 0.00% 10000 751 121
Ashton Van Horne 0.09% 1111 601 49
Augusto Nunez 0.71% 141 126 33
Austin Cook 0.50% 200 176 49
Austin Greaser 0.25% 400 301 39
Austin Hitt 0.75% 133 101 83
Austin Smotherman 2.45% 41 31 11
Barend Botha 0.33% 303 91 13
Ben Taylor 1.34% 75 61 39
Billy Kennerly 0.25% 400 251 97
Brandon Berry 1.15% 87 161 0.50% 116 -0.5 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Crick 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 105 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.67% 149 67 13
Brandon Hoelzer 0.07% 1429 501 74
Brandon Matthews 0.01% 10000 201 143
Brendon Jelley 0.36% 278 251 137
Brent Grant 0.30% 333 176 105
Bronson Burgoon 0.17% 588 301 132
Caleb VanArragon 0.47% 213 301 0.10% 132 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Champ 0.82% 122 81 19
Carl Yuan 0.48% 208 161
Chandler Blanchet 0.10% 1000 301 13
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.13% 769 601 33
Chesson Hadley 0.85% 118 76 137
Chris Baker 0.24% 417 301 79
Christo Lamprecht 0.98% 102 41 2
Clay Feagler 0.11% 909 501 65
Cody Blick 0.25% 400 276 49
Cody Gribble 0.13% 769 601 72
Cole Hammer 0.31% 323 151 83
Cole Sherwood 0.63% 159 141 121
Cooper Dossey 0.60% 167 151 121
Dalton Ward 0.14% 714 501 33
Dan McCarthy 0.79% 127 101 121
David Kocher 0.40% 250 201 105
Davis Chatfield 1.99% 50 46 6
Davis Shore 0.35% 286 201 116
Dylan Wu 2.71% 37 26 116
Eduardo Carrete 0.01% 10000 116
Emilio Gonzalez 1.36% 74 46 83
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 1001 151
Esteban Jaramillo 0.00% 10000 1001 59
Etienne Papineau 0.20% 500 401 26
Fabian Gomez 0.72% 139 101 33
Garrick Higgo 0.94% 106 46 26
George McNeill 0.13% 769 501 150
Grant Hirschman 0.02% 5000 601 97
Hank Lebioda 1.97% 51 31 39
Harry Hillier 0.09% 1111 501 26
Hunter Wolcott 0.29% 345 251 105
Ian Holt 0.52% 192 151 26
Jack Maguire 0.34% 294 201 11
Jacob Solomon 0.05% 2000 301 148
James Nicholas 0.26% 385 301 19
Jeffrey Kang 0.20% 500 401 58
Jeremy Gandon 0.09% 1111 501 49
Jin Chung 0.16% 625 401 137
Joe Weiler 0.65% 154 176 0.10% 132 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Greco 0.06% 1667 501 121
John Keefer 2.16% 46 31
John VanDerLaan 0.98% 102 61 49
Jonas Baumgartner 0.38% 263 126 97
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.37% 270 301 148
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 0.34% 294 201 68
Joseph Bramlett 2.23% 45 41
Josh Teater 1.84% 54 56 0.10% 59 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Etulain 0.03% 3333 501 47
Julian Suri 1.28% 78 61 105
Justin Suh 1.79% 56 41 68
Keenan Huskey 0.14% 714 1251 0.10% 97 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kensei Hirata 1.97% 51 26 105
Kevin Dougherty 0.72% 139 111 6
Kyle Westmoreland 0.64% 156 151 1
Luke Guthrie 0.66% 152 141 59
M.J. Daffue 0.45% 222 226 152
Marcelo Rozo 0.17% 588 301 19
Marcus Plunkett 0.08% 1250 401 146
Matt Atkins 0.49% 204 201 97
Matt NeSmith 1.52% 66 91 0.40% 39 -0.4 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.15% 667 601 49
Michael Johnson 0.28% 357 251 13
Mitchell Meissner 1.73% 58 51 4
Myles Creighton 0.39% 256 251 13
Nate Stember 0.11% 909 201 83
Neal Shipley 1.73% 58 36 83
Nelson Ledesma 0.32% 313 301 83
Nicolas Quintero 0.02% 5000 501 137
Nicolo Galletti 0.33% 303 151 121
Norman Xiong 0.89% 112 91 65
Oscar Hernandez 0.00% 10000 1001 121
Owen Stamper 0.13% 769 401 121
Parker Coody 0.61% 164
Patrick Cover 0.14% 714 601 116
Patrick Welch 0.29% 345 251 47
Paul Barjon 0.29% 345 401 82
Paul Haley 0.24% 417 501 121
Peter Kuest 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 121 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.27% 370 201 137
Pierceson Coody 2.05% 49 26 2
Pontus Nyholm 1.08% 93 81 59
Rayhan Thomas 1.20% 83 67 26
Rhein Gibson 0.42% 238 126 13
Ricardo Celia 0.06% 1667 501 56
Richy Werenski 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 68 -0.1 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rick Lamb 0.89% 112 81 19
Rob Oppenheim 0.36% 278 151 76
Robby Shelton 2.06% 49 36 33
Robert Streb 0.32% 313 301 68
Roberto Diaz 1.01% 99 101 33
Roger Sloan 1.34% 75 111 0.40% 49 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 0.35% 286 126 6
Russell Knox 1.95% 51 41
Ryan Armour 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 59 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Blaum 0.63% 159 276 0.30% 76 -0.3 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Brehm 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 74 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett 0.19% 526 301 83
Ryan McCormick 0.77% 130 81 152
Sam Bennett 0.68% 147 101 83
Samuel Anderson 0.16% 625 301 19
Sandy Scott 0.33% 303 201 59
Sangmoon Bae 0.09% 1111 201 39
Sebastian Cappelen 0.61% 164 176 83
Seonghyeon Kim 2.10% 48 46 39
Seth Reeves 0.20% 500 401 79
Seungtaek Lee 0.59% 169 126 6
Seung-Yul Noh 2.40% 42 41 19
Shad Tuten 1.28% 78 56 105
Spencer Levin 0.27% 370 401 83
Spencer Ralston 0.08% 1250 501 97
Stuart Macdonald 0.16% 625 401 56
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.71% 141 101 132
Taiga Semikawa 0.80% 125 67
Tanner Gore 0.22% 455 301 105
Tano Goya 0.37% 270 301 152
Theo Humphrey 0.15% 667 601 83
Thomas Longbella 0.01% 10000 601 143
Thomas Walsh 0.43% 233 161 78
Tom Whitney 0.93% 108 91 26
Trace Crowe 0.82% 122 91 19
Trent Phillips 0.56% 179 176 83
Trevor Werbylo 0.23% 435 301 143
Trey Winstead 1.43% 70 51 65
Tyler Duncan 1.96% 51 67 0.50% 105 -0.5 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander 0.79% 127 201 0.30% 6 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
William Cannon 0.33% 303 251
William McGirt 1.73% 58 76 0.40% Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr 0.53% 189 401 0.30% 105 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 1.50% 67 46 137
Zach James 0.27% 370 201 146
Zack Fischer 0.15% 667 401 97
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 81 39

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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