Simulation Results: Astara Golf Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	1.74%	57	31		41
Alistair Docherty	0.85%	118	91		74
Alvaro Ortiz	0.80%	125	111		74
Ashton Van Horne	0.06%	1667	751		4
Augusto Nunez	0.28%	357	161		94
Austin Cook	0.42%	238	251		135
Austin Hitt	1.48%	68	71	0.10%	58	-0.1	Priced Up: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Barend Botha	1.88%	53	31		113
Ben Kohles	3.47%	29	19		139
Ben Martin	2.24%	45	51	0.30%	65	-0.3	Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Silverman	0.69%	145	61		71
Ben Taylor	1.26%	79	67		131
Billy Tom Sargent	0.80%	125	91		25
Blades Brown	0.81%	123	36		25
Blaine Hale	0.15%	667	301		107
Braden Thornberry	0.50%	200	126		139
Brandon Berry	0.12%	833	301		74
Brandon Matthews	0.04%	2500	251		121
Brandon Wu	0.40%	250	151		94
Brett White	0.57%	175	126		41
Bryce Lewis	0.62%	161	181	0.10%	25	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.40%	250	276		139
Caleb VanArragon	1.26%	79	71		25
Camilo Villegas	0.39%	256	56		49
Carl Yuan	0.23%	435	126
Carson Bacha	0.34%	294	181		25
Carson Young	0.64%	156	41		3
Chad Sewell	0.23%	435	401		74
Chan Kim	1.79%	56	31		74
Chez Reavie	0.12%	833	601		94
Chris Korte	0.09%	1111	501		25
Cole Sherwood	0.95%	105	71		41
Cooper Dossey	1.23%	81	51		25
Cristobal Del Solar	0.40%	250	151		8
Daniel Faccini	0.05%	2000	1001		74
Daniel Summerhays	0.82%	122	151	0.20%	74	-0.2	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Skinns	0.88%	114	71		14
Davis Lamb	0.68%	147	71		25
Davis Shore	0.58%	172	101		14
Derek Hitchner	0.47%	213	301	0.10%	41	-0.1	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Stewart	0.21%	476	501		121
Doc Redman	1.13%	88	56		62
Drew Nesbitt	0.09%	1111	401		113
Dylan Menante	1.07%	93	81		74
Esteban Jaramillo	0.08%	1250	401		107
Fabian Gomez	0.79%	127	101		74
Harry Higgs	0.68%	147	91		65
Harry Hillier	0.27%	370	401		58
Hayden Buckley	3.03%	33	61	1.40%	25	-1.4	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	2.02%	50	36		125
Hunter Eichhorn	1.00%	100	151	0.30%	4	2.5875	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Wolcott	0.15%	667	301		131
Ian Gilligan	1.12%	89	91		4
Ian Holt	3.75%	27	23		49
Jack Maguire	0.67%	149	126		74
Jackson Buchanan	0.42%	238	111		113
Jackson Suber	0.70%	143	36		4
James Nicholas	0.67%	149	101		1
James Song	0.00%	10000	2001		138
Jay Card	0.28%	357	151		38
Jeff Overton	0.18%	556	301		125
Jeremy Gandon	1.50%	67	126	0.70%	18	-0.7	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Paul	0.64%	156	81		25
Jimmy Stanger	0.03%	3333	351		73
Joaquin Cabrera Mejia	0.00%	10000	1001		121
Joe Weiler	0.44%	227	151		62
John Marshall Butler	0.14%	714	301		94
John Pak	0.86%	116	56		12
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.01%	99	81		25
Jorge Garcia	0.14%	714	401		107
Joseph Bramlett	2.69%	37	56	0.90%	38	-0.9	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josh Teater	0.24%	417	226		107
Julian Suri	0.80%	125	91		135
Justin Hastings	0.61%	164	67		41
Justin Suh	0.47%	213	111		137
Kaito Onishi	0.26%	385	251		53
Kevin Dougherty	0.77%	130	71		74
Kevin Velo	0.83%	120	111		94
Kyle Westmoreland	0.73%	137	126		41
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	74	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luke Long	0.07%	1429	301		131
Marshall Meisel	0.18%	556	501		53
Martin Laird	0.61%	164	176		53
Mason Andersen	1.99%	50	76	0.70%	8	-0.7	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mason Williams	0.14%	714	251		18
Matt Atkins	0.45%	222	101		121
Matt NeSmith	0.53%	189	301	0.20%	125	-0.2	Priced Up: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.19%	526	401		11
Matthew Riedel	0.33%	303	276		41
Maxwell Moldovan	0.30%	333	501	0.10%	53	-0.1	Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Feagles	0.55%	182	301	0.20%	113	-0.2	Priced Up: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Johnson	1.93%	52	76	0.60%	8	-0.6	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mitchell Meissner	1.34%	75	41		94
Myles Creighton	0.65%	154	201	0.20%	18	-0.2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicholas Infanti	0.05%	2000	601		94
Nick Hardy	1.48%	68	101	0.50%	94	-0.5	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.99%	101	61		49
Norman Xiong	0.28%	357	201		2
Paul Barjon	0.02%	5000	501		74
Paul Peterson	0.71%	141	91		70
Peter Kuest	0.29%	345	126		58
Phichaksn Maichon	0.23%	435	301		107
Philip Knowles	0.18%	556	401
Preston Summerhays	0.07%	1429	401		131
Rayhan Thomas	0.57%	175	141		139
Rhein Gibson	0.32%	313	126		74
Ricardo Celia	0.09%	1111	501		49
Rick Lamb	0.79%	127	101		74
Rob Oppenheim	0.30%	333	301		113
Robby Shelton	0.49%	204	111		12
Roger Sloan	1.14%	88	111	0.20%	41	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Steelman	1.54%	65	51		139
Russell Knox	0.40%	250	111		38
Ryan Brehm	0.15%	667	401		74
Ryan Burnett	0.28%	357	251		74
Ryan Elmore	0.01%	10000	501		94
Ryan Grider	0.01%	10000	1501		58
Ryan Sullivan	0.03%	3333	2001		72
Sam Choi	0.14%	714	401		113
Samuel Anderson	0.90%	111	201	0.40%	94	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sandy Scott	0.55%	182	176		25
Sebastian Cappelen	0.50%	200	161		139
Sebastian Moss	0.05%	2000	301		113
Seung-Yul Noh	2.09%	48	34		25
Shad Tuten	0.52%	192	151		65
Spencer Levin	0.32%	313	401	0.10%	125	-0.1	Unibet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Macdonald	1.07%	93	161	0.50%	74	-0.5	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Dickson	1.24%	81	111	0.30%	18	-0.3	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Theo Humphrey	0.20%	500	251		62
Trent Phillips	1.68%	60	26		14
Trevor Cone	2.65%	38	29		94
Trey Winstead	0.70%	143	111		74
Troy Merritt	0.31%	323	151		65
Tyler Duncan	1.32%	76	151	0.70%	113	-0.7	Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.16%	625	501		74
Tyson Alexander	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	94	-0.1	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vicente Marzilio	0.08%	1250	751		53
Wil Bateman	0.34%	294	276		14
Will Cannon	0.38%	263	151		125
Will Chandler	0.29%	345	251		18
Will Gordon	0.84%	119	81		94
Wilson Furr	0.59%	169	141		107
Yuta Sugiura	0.12%	833	181		125
Zac Blair	1.04%	96	36		18

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Hadwin	0.99%	101	51		48
Alistair Docherty	0.72%	139	86		92
Alvaro Ortiz	0.94%	106	101		38
Ashton Van Horne	0.26%	385	226		3
Augusto Nunez	0.61%	164	126		92
Austin Cook	0.73%	137	126		133
Austin Hitt	1.15%	87	71		27
Barend Botha	1.00%	100	61		74
Ben Kohles	1.25%	80	41		92
Ben Martin	1.04%	96	71		48
Ben Silverman	0.87%	115	81		38
Ben Taylor	0.87%	115	71		120
Billy Tom Sargent	0.66%	152	101		17
Blades Brown	0.90%	111	67		48
Blaine Hale	0.49%	204	176		107
Braden Thornberry	0.58%	172	101		137
Brandon Berry	0.34%	294	176		48
Brandon Matthews	0.32%	313	151		92
Brandon Wu	0.53%	189	126		27
Brett White	0.60%	167	91		48
Bryce Lewis	0.77%	130	126		27
Bryson Nimmer	0.51%	196	126		137
Caleb VanArragon	1.11%	90	81		17
Camilo Villegas	0.52%	192	81		120
Carson Bacha	0.45%	222	126		92
Carson Young	0.61%	164	67		48
Chad Sewell	0.57%	175	176		92
Chan Kim	0.89%	112	56		74
Chez Reavie	0.33%	303	226		107
Chris Korte	0.30%	333	351		74
Cole Sherwood	1.02%	98	71		27
Cooper Dossey	0.83%	120	67		92
Cristobal Del Solar	0.72%	139	126		1
Daniel Faccini	0.29%	345	301		48
Daniel Summerhays	0.69%	145	126		48
David Skinns	0.63%	159	101		17
Davis Lamb	0.86%	116	91		74
Davis Shore	0.61%	164	91		48
Derek Hitchner	0.73%	137	171	0.10%	38	-0.1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/5
Dillon Stewart	0.52%	192	191		107
Doc Redman	0.76%	132	71		38
Drew Nesbitt	0.42%	238	171		107
Dylan Menante	1.11%	90	81		74
Esteban Jaramillo	0.28%	357	201		120
Fabian Gomez	0.90%	111	91		92
Harry Higgs	0.83%	120	101		74
Harry Hillier	0.61%	164	171		8
Hayden Buckley	1.25%	80	51		17
Hayden Springer	1.32%	76	67		107
Hunter Eichhorn	0.76%	132	126		3
Hunter Wolcott	0.54%	185	176		137
Ian Gilligan	0.84%	119	81		48
Ian Holt	1.84%	54	41		38
Jack Maguire	0.64%	156	91		48
Jackson Buchanan	0.48%	208	101		120
Jackson Suber	0.86%	116	67		8
James Nicholas	0.89%	112	91		27
James Song	0.08%	1250	501		143
Jay Card	0.62%	161	126		48
Jeff Overton	0.39%	256	171		120
Jeremy Gandon	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	8	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jeremy Paul	0.93%	108	91		120
Jimmy Stanger	0.25%	400	201		27
Joaquin Cabrera Mejia	0.08%	1250	301		133
Joe Weiler	0.71%	141	126		38
John Marshall Butler	0.49%	204	176		92
John Pak	0.89%	112	81		74
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.71%	141	71		38
Jorge Garcia	0.47%	213	176		120
Joseph Bramlett	1.14%	88	61		48
Josh Teater	0.58%	172	126		107
Joshua Creel	0.35%	286			92
Julian Suri	0.96%	104	91		120
Justin Hastings	0.59%	169	81		38
Justin Suh	0.75%	133	91		74
Kaito Onishi	0.40%	250	126		48
Kevin Dougherty	0.69%	145	81		27
Kevin Velo	0.99%	101	101		48
Kyle Westmoreland	0.89%	112	91		38
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	0.62%	161	91		92
Luke Long	0.27%	370	201		107
Marshall Meisel	0.38%	263	191		48
Martin Laird	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	3	0.94	Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mason Andersen	1.46%	68	71	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mason Williams	0.35%	286	151		48
Matt Atkins	0.54%	185	91		107
Matt NeSmith	0.80%	125	171	0.20%	141	-0.2	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matthew Anderson	0.38%	263	171		8
Matthew Riedel	0.40%	250	126		17
Maxwell Moldovan	0.49%	204	191		27
Michael Feagles	0.80%	125	171	0.20%	74	-0.2	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	1.41%	71	71		27
Mitchell Meissner	0.81%	123	67		74
Myles Creighton	0.87%	115	151	0.20%	27	-0.2	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicholas Infanti	0.30%	333	226		48
Nick Hardy	1.28%	78	91	0.20%	92	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noah Goodwin	0.74%	135	67		74
Norman Xiong	0.39%	256	126		3
Paul Barjon	0.22%	455	201		17
Paul Peterson	0.64%	156	101		74
Peter Kuest	0.46%	217	101		17
Phichaksn Maichon	0.56%	179	171		48
Preston Summerhays	0.36%	278	171		120
Rayhan Thomas	0.82%	122	111		143
Rhein Gibson	0.62%	161	101		107
Ricardo Celia	0.27%	370	191		48
Rick Lamb	0.65%	154	91		120
Rob Oppenheim	0.59%	169	171		27
Robby Shelton	0.47%	213	101		2
Roger Sloan	1.07%	93	101	0.10%	17	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Steelman	1.25%	80	67		48
Russell Knox	0.70%	143	101		8
Ryan Brehm	0.50%	200	171		74
Ryan Burnett	0.61%	164	126		107
Ryan Elmore	0.20%	500	351		48
Ryan Grider	0.15%	667	351		74
Ryan Sullivan	0.25%	400	351		92
Sam Choi	0.30%	333	171		107
Samuel Anderson	1.01%	99	126	0.20%	48	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sandy Scott	0.54%	185	126		74
Sebastian Cappelen	0.54%	185	126		142
Sebastian Moss	0.41%	244	176		92
Seung-Yul Noh	1.42%	70	67		8
Shad Tuten	0.54%	185	126		74
Spencer Levin	0.63%	159	171		120
Stuart Macdonald	1.08%	93	126	0.30%	74	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Taylor Dickson	1.18%	85	81		17
Theo Humphrey	0.38%	263	151		48
Tom Whitney	0.78%	128	126		48
Trent Phillips	0.97%	103	46		8
Trevor Cone	1.61%	62	67	0.10%	137	-0.1	VirginBet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trey Winstead	0.94%	106	101		107
Troy Merritt	0.47%	213	111		8
Tyler Duncan	1.15%	87	126	0.40%	38	-0.4	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyler Leach	0.35%	286	191		133
Tyson Alexander	0.69%	145	171	0.10%	107	-0.1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/5
Vicente Marzilio	0.25%	400	201		3
Wil Bateman	0.68%	147	126		8
Will Cannon	0.48%	208	111		92
Will Chandler	0.67%	149	151		48
Will Gordon	0.95%	105	81		133
Wilson Furr	0.80%	125	101		120
Yuta Sugiura	0.45%	222	126		120
Zac Blair	1.07%	93	67		74

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hayden Buckley	3.03%	33	61	1.40%	25	-2	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Joseph Bramlett	2.69%	37	56	0.90%	38	-2	Unibet: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Mason Andersen	1.99%	50	76	0.70%	8	-2	Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tyler Duncan	1.15%	87	126	0.40%	38	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Stuart Macdonald	1.08%	93	126	0.30%	74	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Nick Hardy	1.28%	78	91	0.20%	92	-1	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Samuel Anderson	1.01%	99	126	0.20%	74	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Myles Creighton	0.87%	115	151	0.20%	92	-1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Matt NeSmith	0.80%	125	171	0.20%	27	-1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.