Simulation Results: The Ascendant

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.22% 455 351 125
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.01% 50 23 19
Algot Kleen 0.32% 313 201 49
Alistair Docherty 0.74% 135 81 49
Alvaro Ortiz 1.75% 57 51 76
Aman Gupta 0.07% 1429 601 143
Andrew Kozan 0.38% 263 276 137
Andrew Landry 0.11% 909 601 125
Andrew Swanson 0.01% 10000 401 113
Augusto Nunez 0.99% 101 101 49
Austin Greaser 0.26% 385 301 92
Austin Hitt 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 31 -0.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Austin Smotherman 4.48% 22 17 4
Barend Botha 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 59 -0.1 QuinnBet: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Crane 0.07% 1429 1001 67
Ben Taylor 1.72% 58 71 0.30% 92 -0.3 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Billy Kennerly 0.20% 500 351 113
Billy Tom Sargent 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 153 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Blades Brown 0.86% 116 67 60
Blaine Hale 0.58% 172 126 49
Brandon Berry 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 92 -0.1 QuinnBet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Crick 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 125 -0.1 William Hill: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Harkins 0.19% 526 351 49
Brandon Hoelzer 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 92 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brayden Forte 0.02% 5000 501 125
Brendan Valdes 1.48% 68 51 125
Brendon Jelley 0.29% 345 301 37
Bryce Lewis 2.20% 45 67 0.70% 19 -0.7 Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer 0.78% 128 161 0.20% 153 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb VanArragon 0.60% 167 251 0.20% 37 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carter Jenkins 0.76% 132 86 113
Chandler Blanchet 1.29% 78 67 12
Charles Huntzinger 0.16% 625 301 137
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.12% 833 401 19
Chris Korte 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 76 -0.1 10Bet: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christo Lamprecht 0.64% 156 51 24
Clay Feagler 0.14% 714 351 137
Cody Blick 0.18% 556 351 12
Cole Hammer 0.44% 227 276 0.10% 125 -0.1 PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cole Sherwood 0.61% 164 176 92
Connor Jones 0.26% 385 276 24
Cooper Dossey 0.62% 161 161 4
Dalton Ward 0.23% 435 401 67
Daniel Robinson 0.03% 3333 1001 146
Daniel Summerhays 0.48% 208 67 76
David Kocher 0.33% 303 226 61
Davis Chatfield 1.49% 67 71 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Shore 0.59% 169 176 145
Dawson Armstrong 0.22% 455 301 92
Doc Redman 1.32% 76 101 0.30% 24 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Menante 1.50% 67 86 0.30% 137 -0.3 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emilio Gonzalez 2.76% 36 41 0.30% 24 -0.3 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Etienne Papineau 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 19 -0.1 10Bet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Evan Brown 0.06% 1667 501 125
Furuse Koichiro 0.01% 10000 351 125
Gavin Cohen 0.21% 476 351 49
Grant Hirschman 0.20% 500 251 146
Griffin Wood 0.02% 5000 501 137
Hank Lebioda 2.11% 47 41 76
Harry Hillier 0.37% 270 151 67
Ian Gilligan 1.29% 78 67 125
Ian Holt 1.73% 58 51 12
Jackson Van Paris 0.22% 455 201 113
Jacob Solomon 0.08% 1250 751 148
James Nicholas 0.43% 233 101 67
Jared Wolfe 0.18% 556 276 137
Jeffrey Kang 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 148 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Gandon 0.69% 145 101 31
Jin Chung 0.03% 3333 601 65
Joe Weiler 0.58% 172 161 49
John Greco 0.04% 2500 751 143
John VanDerLaan 0.62% 161 126 12
Johnny Keefer 1.80% 56 23 12
Jonas Baumgartner 0.08% 1250 1001 46
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.15% 667 251 2
Joshua Creel 0.52% 192 176 83
Julian Etulain 0.17% 588 351 113
Julian Suri 0.76% 132 126 92
Justin Suh 1.22% 82 76 113
Keenan Huskey 0.13% 769 501 37
Kensei Hirata 1.99% 50 46 37
Kevin Dougherty 0.62% 161 126 2
KK Limbhasut 0.19% 526 501 152
Kyle Westmoreland 0.55% 182 176 92
Logan McAllister 0.74% 135 111 76
Luke Guthrie 0.18% 556 276 76
Marcelo Rozo 0.65% 154 151 37
Marcus Plunkett 0.15% 667 751 9
Mark Goetz 0.35% 286 176 83
Matt Atkins 0.41% 244 1001 0.30% 64 -0.3 QuinnBet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.68% 147 126 65
Michael Johnson 0.97% 103 71 24
Mitchell Meissner 2.21% 45 34 92
Myles Creighton 0.72% 139 111 113
Nate Stember 0.16% 625 401 92
Neal Shipley 1.75% 57 34 1
Nelson Ledesma 0.15% 667 251 92
Nick Gabrelcik 0.51% 196 151 67
Nicolo Galletti 1.06% 94 81 31
Omar Morales 0.02% 5000 226 92
Owen Stamper 0.14% 714 501 19
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.04% 2500 201 83
Patrick Cover 0.36% 278 201 37
Patrick Welch 0.38% 263 251 37
Paul Haley 0.10% 1000 401 83
Peter Kuest 0.18% 556 501 92
Petr Hruby 0.26% 385 1001 0.20% 49 -0.2 Skybet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phichaksn Maichon 0.17% 588 301 31
Pierceson Coody 3.01% 33 23 4
Pontus Nyholm 1.20% 83 61 49
Preston Summerhays 0.45% 222 151 113
Raul Pereda 0.15% 667 351 113
Rayhan Thomas 0.38% 263 276 92
Rhein Gibson 0.15% 667 401 83
Richy Werenski 0.34% 294 301 153
Rick Lamb 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 46 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robby Shelton 0.83% 120 101 67
Robert Streb 0.35% 286 301 148
Roberto Diaz 0.53% 189 201 83
Roger Sloan 0.60% 167 301 0.30% 31 -0.3 PaddyPower: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.64% 61 46 4
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.20% 500 276 92
Russell Knox 0.68% 147 126 83
Ryan Blaum 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 92 -0.1 10Bet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Burnett 0.32% 313 251 125
Ryan Hall 0.70% 143 251 0.30% 83 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan McCormick 0.85% 118 81 61
Sam Bennett 0.41% 244 176 83
Samuel Anderson 0.36% 278 201 92
Sandy Scott 1.34% 75 126 0.60% 24 -0.6 PaddyPower: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sangha Park 0.01% 10000 176 61
Sebastian Cappelen 0.65% 154 151 148
Sebastian Moss 0.03% 3333 301 125
Seungtaek Lee 1.84% 54 36 37
Shad Tuten 0.88% 114 71 24
Spencer Levin 0.26% 385 351 113
Spencer Ralston 0.33% 303 301 92
Stuart Macdonald 0.31% 323 176 113
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.41% 244 226 49
T.J. Vogel 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 11 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tanner Gore 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 92 -0.1 10Bet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tanner Napier 0.04% 2500 301 153
Thomas Walsh 0.84% 119 201 0.30% 92 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Whitney 1.10% 91 91 37
Trace Crowe 1.31% 76 61 67
Travis Trace 0.51% 196 176 67
Trent Phillips 0.88% 114 91 46
Trey Winstead 0.84% 119 91 125
Tyson Alexander 0.95% 105 81 113
Will Cannon 0.91% 110 101 76
Wilson Furr 0.46% 217 201 9
Zach Bauchou 1.44% 69 46 4
Zach James 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 92 -0.2 Skybet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zack Fischer 0.43% 233 176 12
Zahkai Brown 0.02% 5000 751 67
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 61 12

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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