Simulation Results: Argentina Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Wise 0.57% 175 81 142
Adam Long 0.54% 185 351 0.30% 68 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 2.14% 47 21 16
Alistair Docherty 2.03% 49 29 16
Alvaro Ortiz 0.56% 179 161 25
Aman Gupta 0.06% 1667 1001 91
Andrew Kozan 0.12% 833 501 100
Andrew Storm 0.00% 10000 751 154
Ashton Van Horne 0.18% 556 501 29
Augusto Nunez 1.02% 98 67 29
Austin Greaser 0.30% 333 226 73
Austin Hitt 0.65% 154 126 73
Austin Smotherman 4.14% 24 23 20
Barend Botha 1.06% 94 51 16
Ben Taylor 1.28% 78 67 29
Billy Kennerly 0.33% 303 301
Billy Tom Sargent 0.01% 10000 601 37
Blaine Hale 0.43% 233 226 100
Brandon Berry 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 123 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Crick 0.81% 123 201 0.30% 68 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.85% 118 41 73
Brandon Hoelzer 0.09% 1111 601 142
Brandon Matthews 0.01% 10000 251 133
Brendon Jelley 0.17% 588 301 49
Bronson Burgoon 0.11% 909 501 133
Bryce Lewis 0.67% 149 126 91
Caleb VanArragon 0.40% 250 501 0.20% 133 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Champ 1.80% 56 67 0.30% 91 -0.3 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chandler Blanchet 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 11 -0.4 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 73 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Baker 0.19% 526 301 110
Christo Lamprecht 2.13% 47 29 29
Clay Feagler 0.10% 1000 401 61
Cody Blick 0.24% 417 201 110
Cole Hammer 0.29% 345 201 68
Cole Sherwood 0.48% 208 176 2
Cooper Dossey 0.53% 189 201 110
Cooper Musselman 0.19% 526 276 123
Corey Shaun 0.19% 526 201 65
Dalton Ward 0.36% 278 501 0.20% 123 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan McCarthy 0.48% 208 126 71
David Kocher 0.29% 345 276 133
Davis Chatfield 2.79% 36 29 73
Davis Shore 0.39% 256 251 7
Derek Bard 0.00% 10000 501 44
Diego Prone 0.00% 10000 16
Doc Redman 1.60% 63 41 155
Emilio Gonzalez 0.92% 109 51 73
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 1501 110
Etienne Papineau 0.44% 227 201 149
Fabian Gomez 0.99% 101 81 73
Garett Reband 0.10% 1000 501 100
Gavin Cohen 1.07% 93 201 0.60% 73 -0.6 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Grant Hirschman 0.03% 3333 1001 72
Hank Lebioda 1.98% 51 31 110
Harry Hillier 0.15% 667 276 37
Hunter Logan 0.23% 435 176 100
Ian Holt 0.76% 132 126 2
Ignacio Marino 0.01% 10000 1251 110
Jack Maguire 1.03% 97 101 49
Jacob Solomon 0.05% 2000 401 142
James Nicholas 0.48% 208 29
Jeffrey Kang 0.27% 370 351 110
Jeremy Gandon 0.16% 625 401 25
Jin Chung 0.07% 1429 501 100
Joe Weiler 0.41% 244 201 6
John Greco 0.04% 2500 601 133
John VanDerLaan 0.83% 120 81 123
Johnny Keefer 3.13% 32 21 37
Jonas Baumgartner 0.42% 238 126 73
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.14% 714 276 142
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 0.19% 526 201 29
Joseph Bramlett 1.98% 51 41 29
Josh Teater 1.12% 89 81 53
Joshua Creel 0.89% 112 151 0.20% 61 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julian Etulain 0.20% 500 301 65
Julian Suri 1.21% 83 71 20
Justin Suh 1.83% 55 41 1
Keenan Huskey 0.18% 556 1251 0.10% 142 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kensei Hirata 1.44% 69 29 110
Kevin Dougherty 1.28% 78 81 73
KK Limbhasut 0.13% 769 501 53
Kyle Westmoreland 1.38% 72 51 73
Leandro Marelli 0.04% 2500 501 61
Logan McAllister 0.36% 278 151 37
Luke Guthrie 0.52% 192 176 49
M.J. Daffue 0.22% 455 351 133
Marcelo Rozo 0.28% 357 251 11
Marcus Plunkett 0.02% 5000 501 149
Mark Goetz 0.09% 1111 301 152
Martin Contini 0.14% 714 401 110
Matt Atkins 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 11 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.26% 385 401 7
Michael Johnson 0.52% 192 201 37
Mitchell Meissner 2.75% 36 34 20
Myles Creighton 0.66% 152 151 73
Nate Stember 0.14% 714 276 11
Neal Shipley 1.19% 84 51 123
Nelson Ledesma 0.32% 313 301 20
Nick Watney 0.46% 217 201 133
Nicolo Galletti 0.24% 417 201 100
Norman Xiong 0.87% 115 81 53
Owen Stamper 0.07% 1429 501 100
Parker Coody 0.46% 217 126 59
Patrick Cover 0.13% 769 751 91
Patrick Welch 0.70% 143 176 0.10% 110 -0.1 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Barjon 0.18% 556 501 73
Paul Haley 0.19% 526 501 152
Peter Kuest 0.47% 213 301 0.10% 149 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.21% 476 301 49
Pontus Nyholm 0.98% 102 81 44
Raul Pereda 0.18% 556 301 91
Rayhan Thomas 2.03% 49 46 147
Rhein Gibson 0.61% 164 81 100
Rick Lamb 1.36% 74 61 133
Rob Oppenheim 0.18% 556 251 7
Robert Streb 0.30% 333 301 110
Roger Sloan 1.19% 84 126 0.40% 73 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.44% 227 81 44
Russell Knox 2.35% 43 41 53
Ryan Blaum 0.38% 263 276 5
Ryan Burnett 0.17% 588 301 123
Ryan Hall 0.36% 278 201 73
Ryan McCormick 0.62% 161 126 65
Sam Bennett 0.55% 182 126 100
Samuel Anderson 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 20 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sandy Scott 0.35% 286 161 37
Santiago Bauni 0.00% 10000 1001 53
Scott Gutschewski 0.20% 500 276 64
Sebastian Cappelen 0.70% 143 151 73
Seonghyeon Kim 2.53% 40 51 0.60% 2 2.7 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seth Reeves 0.23% 435 301 123
Seung-Yul Noh 2.77% 36 29 73
Shad Tuten 1.09% 92 71 53
Spencer Levin 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 100 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Spencer Ralston 0.10% 1000 601 147
Stuart Macdonald 0.17% 588 301 123
T.J. Vogel 0.77% 130 101 25
Tanner Gore 0.17% 588 501 37
Tanner Napier 0.00% 10000 401 110
Tano Goya 0.25% 400 251 91
Thomas Longbella 0.01% 10000 751 91
Thomas Ponder 0.70% 143 91
Thomas Walsh 0.24% 417 201 11
Tom Whitney 1.37% 73 67 73
Trent Phillips 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 133 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trevor Werbylo 0.17% 588 401 123
Tyler Duncan 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 7 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyson Alexander 1.84% 54 101 0.90% 25 -0.9 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vicente Marzilio 0.77% 130 401 0.50% 123 -0.5 William Hill: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Cannon 0.30% 333 301 59
Wilson Furr 0.55% 182 501 0.40% 155 -0.4 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yi Cao 0.13% 769 201 110
Zach James 0.18% 556 276 44
Zack Fischer 0.15% 667 401 29
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 51 44

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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