Simulation Results: Argentina Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alistair Docherty	0.79%	127	126		1
Alvaro Ortiz	0.70%	143	101		145
Andrew Kozan	0.21%	476	201		69
Ashton Van Horne	1.27%	79	301	0.90%	151	-0.9	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Augusto Nunez	0.24%	417	126		116
Austin Duncan	0.10%	1000			116
Austin Greaser	0.58%	172	151		104
Austin Hitt	0.89%	112	81		116
Barend Botha	1.31%	76	34		104
Ben Carr	0.06%	1667	751		35
Ben Kohles	2.10%	48	31		6
Ben Martin	1.84%	54	56	0.10%	92	-0.1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Taylor	0.73%	137	101		46
Billy Tom Sargent	1.08%	93	71		69
Blaine Hale	0.14%	714	351		35
Braden Thornberry	0.39%	256	176		77
Brandon Berry	0.07%	1429	401		92
Brandon Matthews	0.03%	3333	201		155
Brandon Wu	0.35%	286	176		74
Brett Roberts	0.10%	1000			69
Brett Stegmaier	0.19%	526			57
Brett White	0.51%	196	111		35
Bronson Burgoon	1.86%	54	61	0.20%	15	-0.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryce Lewis	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	156	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.22%	455	201		42
Caleb VanArragon	1.69%	59	61	0.10%	64	-0.1	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Champ	1.04%	96	51		25
Carl Yuan	0.29%	345	141		25
Carson Bacha	0.50%	200	151		15
Chad Sewell	0.16%	625	501		9
Chez Reavie	0.11%	909	601		77
Chris Francoeur	0.32%	313	151		128
Chris Korte	0.46%	217	301	0.10%	2	3.7	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Salzer	0.03%	3333	601		104
Cody Blick	0.23%	435	201		141
Cole Anderson	0.00%	10000	501		92
Cole Hammer	1.42%	70	67		77
Cole Sherwood	1.24%	81	51		9
Cooper Dossey	1.64%	61	56		64
Cristobal Del Solar	0.75%	133	81		25
Dan McCarthy	0.18%	556	351		104
David Kocher	0.16%	625	251		145
Davis Lamb	0.96%	104	67		116
Davis Shore	1.36%	74	67		35
Derek Hitchner	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	145	-0.2	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dillon Stewart	0.13%	769	601		53
Doc Redman	0.89%	112	67		61
Drew Nesbitt	0.10%	1000	351		116
Dylan Menante	1.01%	99	91		77
Fabian Gomez	0.54%	185	76		35
Franco Romero	0.01%	10000	1001		132
Harry Hillier	0.26%	385	301		104
Hayden Buckley	2.97%	34	46	0.80%	92	-0.8	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	1.37%	73	56		69
Hunter Eichhorn	2.07%	48	81	0.80%	9	-0.8	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hunter Wolcott	0.06%	1667	351		132
Ian Gilligan	1.83%	55	71	0.40%	9	-0.4	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Holt	2.75%	36	23		22
J.J. Grey	0.70%	143	401	0.50%	145	-0.5	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Buchanan	0.35%	286	151		104
Jackson Van Paris	1.54%	65	67		9
James Nicholas	1.60%	63	41		132
James Song	0.00%	10000	351		145
Jared Wolfe	0.09%	1111	601		104
Jay Card	0.30%	333	126		116
Jeremy Gandon	1.75%	57	67	0.30%	53	-0.3	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Paul	0.88%	114	71		61
Joe Weiler	0.51%	196	126		22
John Marshall Butler	0.12%	833	301		46
John Pak	1.65%	61	41		46
Jonathan Byrd	1.47%	68	81	0.20%	104	-0.2	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.12%	89	76		15
Joseph Bramlett	2.40%	42	46	0.20%	77	-0.2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Creel	0.17%	588	226		141
Joshua Lee	0.02%	5000	501		141
Julian Suri	0.53%	189	101		25
Justin Hastings	0.83%	120	71		141
Justin Suh	0.32%	313	67		19
Kaito Onishi	0.29%	345	176		132
Kevin Dougherty	0.52%	192	91		128
Kevin Velo	0.68%	147	126		42
Kyle Westmoreland	0.52%	192	151		92
Logan McAllister	0.85%	118	91		104
Luke Guthrie	0.10%	1000	301		77
Luke Gutschewski	0.33%	303	201		77
Luke List	0.41%	244	101		57
Marcos Montenegro	0.08%	1250	601		132
Marshall Meisel	0.29%	345	401		42
Martin Contini	0.03%	3333	751		46
Mason Andersen	2.16%	46	36		25
Mason Williams	0.62%	161	141		154
Matt Atkins	0.41%	244	126		116
Matt NeSmith	0.36%	278	301		61
Matthew Anderson	0.62%	161	126		42
Matthew Riedel	0.42%	238	201		151
Maximiliano Godoy	0.01%	10000	1001		153
Maxwell Moldovan	0.27%	370	351		35
Michael Feagles	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	132	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Johnson	2.16%	46	51	0.20%	25	-0.2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mitchell Meissner	1.16%	86	41		64
Myles Creighton	0.85%	118	161	0.20%	77	-0.2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nelson Ledesma	0.17%	588	201		116
Nicholas Infanti	0.05%	2000	601		76
Nick Gabrelcik	0.35%	286	91		46
Nick Hardy	1.12%	89	111	0.20%	92	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolo Galletti	0.62%	161	101		116
Norman Xiong	1.02%	98	101		77
Parker Coody	0.15%	667	251		77
Peter Kuest	0.26%	385	126		104
Petr Hruby	0.35%	286	176		92
Phichaksn Maichon	0.16%	625	301		9
Philip Knowles	0.14%	714	351		92
Preston Summerhays	0.05%	2000	501		116
Rayhan Thomas	0.24%	417	176		25
Rhein Gibson	0.18%	556	251		19
Rick Lamb	0.55%	182	151		92
Rob Oppenheim	0.21%	476	251		57
Robbie Higgins	0.04%	2500	601		57
Robby Shelton	0.85%	118	91		104
Roger Sloan	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	25	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Russell Knox	0.52%	192	101		22
Ryan Blaum	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	77	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Burnett	0.17%	588	301		69
Ryan Grider	0.06%	1667	501		116
Ryan McCormick	0.26%	385	176		77
Ryan Sullivan	0.03%	3333	1251		77
Ryo Ishikawa	0.36%	278	151		64
Sam Choi	0.09%	1111	401		132
Samuel Anderson	0.49%	204	201		64
Sandy Scott	0.80%	125	111		19
Sebastian Cappelen	0.34%	294	201		46
Segundo Oliva	0.00%	10000	1001		7
Seung-Yul Noh	1.99%	50	34		2
Shad Tuten	0.35%	286	176		4
Spencer Levin	0.17%	588	351		104
Stuart Macdonald	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	25	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Taylor Montgomery	1.81%	55	51		4
Theo Humphrey	0.22%	455	251		92
Tom Whitney	1.30%	77	91	0.20%	74	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Cocha	0.01%	10000	1501		77
Travis Trace	0.28%	357	201		35
Trent Phillips	2.09%	48	29		132
Trevor Cone	1.60%	63	36		128
Trey Winstead	0.49%	204	151		116
Troy Merritt	0.44%	227	176		53
Tyler Duncan	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	92	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyler Leach	0.15%	667	601		92
Tyler McCumber	0.05%	2000	251		77
Tyson Alexander	0.25%	400	351		7
Vicente Marzilio	0.11%	909	501		53
Will Cannon	0.26%	385	176		128
Will Chandler	0.45%	222	201		25
Will Gordon	0.73%	137	101		145
Wilson Furr	0.53%	189	176		46
Yuta Sugiura	0.10%	1000	226		15
Zack Fischer	0.30%	333	226		132

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Alistair Docherty	0.65%	154	91		1
Alvaro Ortiz	0.91%	110	91		133
Andrew Kozan	0.52%	192	151		61
Ashton Van Horne	1.09%	92	171	0.50%	133	-0.5	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
Augusto Nunez	0.61%	164	101		99
Austin Duncan	0.28%	357	226		133
Austin Greaser	0.60%	167	111		21
Austin Hitt	1.02%	98	91		99
Barend Botha	0.81%	123	41		82
Ben Carr	0.34%	294	226		61
Ben Kohles	0.97%	103	46		21
Ben Martin	1.27%	79	71		61
Ben Taylor	0.63%	159	91		7
Billy Tom Sargent	0.68%	147	81		39
Blaine Hale	0.46%	217	176		39
Braden Thornberry	0.67%	149	151		121
Brandon Berry	0.38%	263	176		82
Brandon Matthews	0.29%	345	151		141
Brandon Wu	0.48%	208	111		61
Brett Roberts	0.29%	345	151		39
Brett Stegmaier	0.51%	196	171		82
Brett White	0.74%	135	101		82
Bronson Burgoon	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	39	-0.1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryce Lewis	0.89%	112	101		121
Bryson Nimmer	0.40%	250	126		39
Caleb VanArragon	0.90%	111	81		99
Cameron Champ	0.75%	133	81		82
Carl Yuan	0.63%	159	101		1
Carson Bacha	0.81%	123	101		1
Chad Sewell	0.51%	196	176		21
Chez Reavie	0.30%	333	226		99
Chris Francoeur	0.61%	164	101		99
Chris Korte	0.55%	182	171		39
Christian Salzer	0.30%	333	226		9
Cody Blick	0.41%	244	151		151
Cole Anderson	0.09%	1111	251		82
Cole Hammer	1.18%	85	67		61
Cole Sherwood	0.75%	133	71		9
Cooper Dossey	1.27%	79	81		21
Cristobal Del Solar	0.63%	159	81		99
Dan McCarthy	0.34%	294	176		141
David Kocher	0.46%	217	151		155
Davis Lamb	0.65%	154	81		133
Davis Shore	0.82%	122	71		61
Derek Hitchner	0.56%	179	126		99
Dillon Stewart	0.29%	345	176		82
Doc Redman	0.69%	145	81		61
Drew Nesbitt	0.25%	400	201		121
Dylan Menante	1.02%	98	91		21
Fabian Gomez	0.58%	172	86		82
Franco Romero	0.14%	714	301		121
Harry Hillier	0.53%	189	171		9
Hayden Buckley	1.60%	63	67	0.10%	99	-0.1	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hayden Springer	0.82%	122	71		61
Hunter Eichhorn	1.46%	68	67		1
Hunter Wolcott	0.22%	455	176		99
Ian Gilligan	1.32%	76	67		9
Ian Holt	1.13%	88	36		21
J.J. Grey	0.84%	119	176	0.30%	99	-0.3	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jackson Buchanan	0.60%	167	111		61
Jackson Van Paris	1.18%	85	81		39
James Nicholas	0.93%	108	51		147
James Song	0.08%	1250	226		151
Jared Wolfe	0.42%	238	251		39
Jay Card	0.41%	244	101		147
Jeremy Gandon	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	61	-0.1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Paul	0.65%	154	81		39
Joe Weiler	0.55%	182	111		121
John Marshall Butler	0.31%	323	171		99
John Pak	0.90%	111	51		141
Jonathan Byrd	0.84%	119	91		121
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	0.78%	128	81		39
Joseph Bramlett	1.41%	71	67		21
Joshua Creel	0.32%	313	151		151
Joshua Lee	0.15%	667	251		156
Julian Suri	0.54%	185	101		21
Justin Hastings	0.65%	154	81		141
Justin Suh	0.69%	145	81		82
Kaito Onishi	0.44%	227	126		133
Kevin Dougherty	0.81%	123	91		121
Kevin Velo	0.52%	192	101		9
Kyle Westmoreland	0.51%	196	111		39
Logan McAllister	0.64%	156	91		133
Luke Guthrie	0.37%	270	171		121
Luke Gutschewski	0.65%	154	151		61
Luke List	0.44%	227	81		99
Marcos Montenegro	0.36%	278	201		133
Marshall Meisel	0.67%	149	176	0.10%	7	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Contini	0.28%	357	301		21
Mason Andersen	1.46%	68	51		1
Mason Williams	0.81%	123	111		99
Matt Atkins	0.48%	208	101		82
Matt NeSmith	0.67%	149	171	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson	0.81%	123	101		1
Matthew Riedel	0.68%	147	111		121
Maximiliano Godoy	0.16%	625	301		147
Maxwell Moldovan	0.56%	179	171		9
Michael Feagles	0.48%	208	176		141
Michael Johnson	1.39%	72	71		39
Mitchell Meissner	0.82%	122	67		39
Myles Creighton	0.93%	108	101		9
Nelson Ledesma	0.46%	217	151		121
Nicholas Infanti	0.22%	455	226		21
Nick Gabrelcik	0.68%	147	101		99
Nick Hardy	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	99	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolo Galletti	0.59%	169	101		61
Norman Xiong	0.71%	141	91		99
Parker Coody	0.51%	196	126		61
Peter Kuest	0.40%	250	101		121
Petr Hruby	0.48%	208	141		39
Phichaksn Maichon	0.37%	270	126		9
Philip Knowles	0.46%	217	176		82
Preston Summerhays	0.21%	476	226		121
Rayhan Thomas	0.38%	263	126		39
Rhein Gibson	0.49%	204	126		21
Rick Lamb	0.56%	179	101		39
Rob Oppenheim	0.38%	263	151		61
Robbie Higgins	0.22%	455	251		61
Robby Shelton	0.65%	154	91		39
Roger Sloan	1.10%	91	111	0.20%	9	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Russell Knox	0.81%	123	101		21
Ryan Blaum	0.80%	125	101		61
Ryan Burnett	0.38%	263	171		82
Ryan Grider	0.29%	345	251		82
Ryan McCormick	0.62%	161	126		99
Ryan Sullivan	0.20%	500	301		82
Ryo Ishikawa	0.50%	200	101		39
Sam Choi	0.45%	222	176		99
Samuel Anderson	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	39	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sandy Scott	0.67%	149	101		61
Sebastian Cappelen	0.43%	233	151		99
Segundo Oliva	0.03%	3333	301		61
Seung-Yul Noh	1.35%	74	51		21
Shad Tuten	0.41%	244	126		9
Spencer Levin	0.52%	192	176		99
Stuart Macdonald	0.85%	118	91		61
Taylor Montgomery	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	82	-0.1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Theo Humphrey	0.38%	263	151		99
Tom Whitney	0.82%	122	91		9
Tommy Cocha	0.19%	526	301		21
Travis Trace	0.39%	256	151		61
Trent Phillips	1.43%	70	51		82
Trevor Cone	1.25%	80	67		141
Trey Winstead	0.80%	125	111		133
Troy Merritt	0.48%	208	126		61
Tyler Duncan	1.01%	99	91		99
Tyler Leach	0.49%	204	226		39
Tyler McCumber	0.22%	455	151		39
Tyson Alexander	0.60%	167	176		21
Vicente Marzilio	0.38%	263	226		82
Will Cannon	0.63%	159	151		21
Will Chandler	0.53%	189	111		21
Will Gordon	0.70%	143	81		151
Wilson Furr	0.82%	122	111		39
Yuta Sugiura	0.27%	370	151		9
Zack Fischer	0.42%	238	151		147

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ashton Van Horne	1.27%	79	301	0.90%	151	-2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hayden Buckley	2.97%	34	46	0.80%	92	-2	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Hunter Eichhorn	2.07%	48	81	0.80%	9	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ashton Van Horne	1.09%	92	171	0.50%	133	-1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: J.J. Grey	0.84%	119	176	0.30%	99	-1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Roger Sloan	1.10%	91	111	0.20%	9	-1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Hayden Buckley	1.60%	63	67	0.10%	61	-1	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Bronson Burgoon	1.35%	74	81	0.10%	39	-1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Jeremy Gandon	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	99	-1	VirginBet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.