Simulation Results: AdventHealth Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 0.56% 179 226 0.10% 109 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.36% 74 41 10
Alistair Docherty 1.54% 65 46 37
Alvaro Ortiz 1.12% 89 81 3
Anders Albertson 0.29% 345 401 69
Andrew Kozan 0.03% 3333 751 21
Andrew Landry 0.01% 10000 1501 109
Austin Greaser 0.37% 270 126 109
Austin Hitt 0.78% 128 126 136
Austin Smotherman 2.73% 37 46 0.60% 10 -0.6 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Barend Botha 0.35% 286 201 109
Ben Taylor 0.66% 152 101 3
Billy Kennerly 0.74% 135 111 75
Billy Tom Sargent 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 60 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Blaine Hale 0.45% 222 301 0.10% 2 3.7 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Berry 0.09% 1111 601 153
Brandon Crick 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 45 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Harkins 0.12% 833 151 45
Brandon Matthews 0.07% 1429 501 76
Bronson Burgoon 0.05% 2000 1001 61
Bryce Lewis 0.24% 417 301 53
Bryson Nimmer 0.84% 119 126 16
Caleb VanArragon 0.75% 133 126 96
Carl Yuan 0.59% 169 151 109
Carson Lundell 0.03% 3333 751 124
Carter Jenkins 0.38% 263 201 3
Chandler Blanchet 2.86% 35 34 25
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.16% 625 401 96
Christo Lamprecht 0.70% 143 67 79
Clay Feagler 0.07% 1429 351 124
Cody Blick 0.17% 588 251 109
Cole Hammer 0.25% 400 101 136
Cole Sherwood 1.12% 89 67 31
Cooper Dossey 0.42% 238 251 37
Cristian DiMarco 0.00% 10000 1001 45
Curtis Thompson 0.01% 10000 601 136
D.A. Points 0.00% 10000 1001 146
Dalton Ward 0.37% 270 301 109
Dan McCarthy 0.27% 370 301 37
David Kocher 0.23% 435 276 25
Davis Chatfield 2.20% 45 51 0.20% 31 -0.2 Unibet: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Davis Shore 1.03% 97 67 141
Dawson Armstrong 0.16% 625 201 69
Derek Bard 0.67% 149 501 0.50% 79 -0.5 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Menante 0.78% 128 251 0.40% 31 -0.4 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Wu 1.66% 60 41 45
Emilio Gonzalez 0.80% 125 81 79
Etienne Papineau 0.27% 370 401 79
Fabian Gomez 0.49% 204 176 31
Francesco Ruffino 0.00% 10000 751 79
Grant Hirschman 0.07% 1429 401 37
Hank Lebioda 0.95% 105 41 31
Harry Hillier 0.36% 278 81 141
Ian Holt 0.51% 196 161 109
Jack Maguire 1.16% 86 81 61
Jacob Solomon 0.06% 1667 1001 124
James Nicholas 0.55% 182 101 109
Jeff Overton 0.01% 10000 1501 76
Jeffrey Kang 0.97% 103 151 0.30% 124 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Gandon 1.39% 72 41 61
Jimmy Stanger 0.03% 3333 201
Jin Chung 0.01% 10000 1001 149
Joe Weiler 1.04% 96 126 0.20% 79 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Augenstein 0.06% 1667 601 109
John Greco 0.04% 2500 751 79
John Rollins 0.00% 10000 1501 124
John VanDerLaan 1.18% 85 111 0.30% 53 -0.3 Paddy Power: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonas Baumgartner 0.05% 2000 601 79
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.41% 244 161 109
Joseph Winslow 0.10% 1000 351 124
Josh Teater 0.64% 156 81 16
Joshua Creel 0.53% 189 91 149
Julian Suri 0.56% 179 101 146
Justin Suh 0.97% 103 67 96
Keenan Huskey 0.07% 1429 601 69
Kensei Hirata 2.56% 39 29 25
Kevin Chappell 0.40% 250 151 53
Kevin Dougherty 0.63% 159 126 73
Kevin Tway 0.40% 250 126 10
KK Limbhasut 0.11% 909 401 37
Kyle Westmoreland 0.86% 116 81 109
Logan McAllister 0.71% 141 81 53
Luke Guthrie 0.03% 3333 501 37
M.J. Daffue 0.38% 263 201 66
Marcelo Rozo 0.76% 132 91 53
Marcus Plunkett 0.04% 2500 501 66
Mark Goetz 0.09% 1111 401 61
Matt Atkins 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 79 -0.1 Paddy Power: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Anderson 0.38% 263 141 96
Michael Johnson 0.75% 133 111 96
Mitchell Meissner 3.96% 25 29 0.50% 14 -0.5 Unibet: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Myles Creighton 0.68% 147 101 37
Neal Shipley 3.61% 28 26 141
Nelson Ledesma 0.40% 250 176 78
Nick Gabrelcik 1.08% 93 67 45
Nicklaus Mason 0.00% 10000 251 141
Nicolo Galletti 0.19% 526 251 131
Noah Goodwin 0.75% 133 81 21
Norman Xiong 1.70% 59 34 131
Patrick Cover 0.52% 192 176 109
Patrick Welch 0.57% 175 176 37
Paul Barjon 0.03% 3333 1251 145
Peter Kuest 0.21% 476 501 69
Petr Hruby 0.14% 714 401 96
Philip Knowles 0.20% 500 201 136
Pierceson Coody 2.48% 40 31 25
Pontus Nyholm 0.76% 132 111 8
Raul Pereda 0.06% 1667 251 66
Rayhan Thomas 0.30% 333 201 96
Rhein Gibson 0.12% 833 401 21
Richy Werenski 0.61% 164 176 124
Rick Lamb 1.22% 82 51 96
Rob Oppenheim 0.20% 500 126 45
Robert Streb 0.34% 294 301 131
Roberto Diaz 0.45% 222 151 79
Roger Sloan 0.74% 135 126 53
Ross Steelman 0.66% 152 81 14
Runchanapong Youprayong 0.83% 120 101 154
Russell Knox 0.90% 111 81 79
Ryan Armour 0.32% 313 276 96
Ryan Blaum 0.72% 139 91 131
Ryan Burnett 0.22% 455 501 152
Ryan Hall 0.11% 909 1001 61
Ryan McCormick 1.29% 78 71 79
Sam Bennett 0.31% 323 301 16
Samuel Anderson 0.64% 156 126 79
Sandy Scott 0.34% 294 176 96
Scott Piercy 0.28% 357 251 25
Sebastian Cappelen 1.12% 89 141 0.40% 79 -0.4 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim 4.15% 24 29 0.70% 1 11.76 Skybet: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Seth Reeves 0.17% 588 351
Seungtaek Lee 2.26% 44 34 16
Seung-Yul Noh 0.96% 104 101 10
Shad Tuten 1.87% 53 81 0.60% 109 -0.6 Paddy Power: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Spencer Levin 0.11% 909 501 79
Stephen Stallings 0.03% 3333 751 149
Stuart Macdonald 0.30% 333 151 96
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.19% 526 201 6
T.J. Vogel 0.44% 227 151 79
Tanner Gore 0.65% 154 111 146
Taylor Montgomery 0.15% 667 141 7
Thomas Walsh 0.59% 169 126 53
Tom Whitney 0.71% 141 161 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Gainey 0.11% 909 501 131
Travis Trace 0.04% 2500 501 31
Trent Phillips 0.62% 161 91 8
Trey Winstead 1.53% 65 41 96
Tyson Alexander 0.91% 110 111 96
Vince Covello 0.01% 10000 501 154
Will Cannon 0.26% 385 226 109
William McGirt 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 136 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr 0.97% 103 111 0.10% 73 -0.1 Paddy Power: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 2.75% 36 41 0.30% 25 -0.3 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach James 0.28% 357 176 79
Zack Fischer 0.23% 435 151 45
Zecheng Dou 0.00% 10000 41 45

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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