Simulation Results: Great Abaco Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aidan Gorospe	0.00%	10000	2501		127
Alistair Docherty	0.20%	500	151		2
Alvaro Ortiz	1.26%	79	91	0.20%	59	-0.2	Priced Up: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Cook	0.24%	417	301		128
Austin Greaser	0.24%	417	126		29
Austin Hitt	0.76%	132	91		23
Barend Botha	1.77%	56	34		4
Ben Kohles	2.18%	46	26		10
Ben Martin	2.69%	37	46	0.50%	6	0.125	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ben Silverman	1.38%	72	29		128
Ben Taylor	1.09%	92	111	0.20%	29	-0.2	Priced Up: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Tom Sargent	0.18%	556			13
Blades Brown	0.61%	164	67		17
Braden Thornberry	0.13%	769	301		10
Brandon Berry	0.31%	323			82
Brandon Harkins	0.11%	909	251		55
Brandon Matthews	0.09%	1111	501		117
Brandon Wu	0.43%	233	201		29
Brendon Todd	0.01%	10000	401		51
Brett White	0.33%	303	151		41
Bryce Lewis	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	61	-0.2	Priced Up: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryson Nimmer	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	48	-0.1	BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caleb VanArragon	2.54%	39	61	0.90%	17	-0.9	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cameron Champ	0.52%	192	51		6
Carl Yuan	0.37%	270	81		92
Carson Bacha	0.09%	1111	176		64
Chad Sewell	0.14%	714	401		92
Chez Reavie	0.07%	1429	301		92
Christian Salzer	0.07%	1429	501		117
Cole Hammer	0.70%	143	111		23
Cole Sherwood	1.70%	59	56		41
Cooper Dossey	2.57%	39	31		29
Cristobal Del Solar	0.20%	500	301		68
Daniel Summerhays	0.11%	909	151		41
David Perkins	0.17%	588	176		125
David Skinns	1.78%	56	46		122
Davis Lamb	0.78%	128	101		17
Davis Shore	0.71%	141	56		102
Derek Hitchner	0.14%	714	176		48
Dillon Stewart	0.22%	455	276		82
Doc Redman	1.39%	72	51		58
Drew Nesbitt	0.08%	1250	201		82
Dylan Menante	3.00%	33	67	1.50%	68	-1.5	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Greyson Sigg	1.94%	52	29		112
Harry Hillier	0.30%	333	276		128
Hayden Buckley	0.93%	108	81		13
Hayden Springer	1.43%	70	36		6
Hunter Eichhorn	1.66%	60	176	1.10%	36	-1.1	PaddyPower: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ian Gilligan	0.27%	370	91		68
Ian Holt	1.82%	55	51		1
Jack Maguire	0.07%	1429	201		6
Jackson Buchanan	1.25%	80	71		65
Jackson Van Paris	0.25%	400	56		17
James Nicholas	0.55%	182	151		23
James Song	0.01%	10000	2501		92
Jared Wolfe	0.08%	1250	501		108
Jay Card	0.65%	154	101		51
Jeff Overton	0.94%	106	176	0.40%	108	-0.4	Priced Up: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeremy Gandon	0.66%	152	126		82
Joe Weiler	0.38%	263	151		29
John Marshall Butler	0.44%	227	176		102
John Pak	1.69%	59	41		57
Jonathan Byrd	1.77%	56	51		68
Jorge Fernandez Valdes	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	29	-0.3	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joseph Bramlett	1.13%	88	71		36
Josh Teater	0.32%	313	251		117
Julian Suri	0.77%	130	91		36
Justin Hastings	0.54%	185	111		2
Justin Suh	1.51%	66	67		128
Kaito Onishi	0.28%	357	276		65
Kevin Dougherty	0.38%	263	141		10
Kevin Velo	0.50%	200	126		68
Kyle Westmoreland	0.33%	303	201		41
Logan McAllister	2.37%	42	61	0.70%	59	-0.7	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marshall Meisel	0.04%	2500	501		17
Martin Laird	0.66%	152	91		102
Mason Andersen	1.60%	63	81	0.40%	92	-0.4	Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Atkins	0.68%	147	101		23
Matt NeSmith	0.50%	200	201		112
Matthew Anderson	0.13%	769	351		108
Matthew Riedel	0.35%	286	176		68
Michael Feagles	1.93%	52	201	1.40%	48	-1.4	PaddyPower: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Johnson	2.50%	40	71	1.10%	82	-1.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mitchell Meissner	0.99%	101	51		13
Myles Creighton	0.26%	385	301		17
Nicholas Infanti	0.08%	1250	301		122
Nick Gabrelcik	0.69%	145	71		23
Nick Hardy	1.32%	76	86	0.20%	41	-0.2	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolo Galletti	1.10%	91	81		61
Noah Goodwin	1.36%	74	36		36
Norman Xiong	0.31%	323	201		112
Parker Coody	0.25%	400	176		68
Patrick Welch	0.15%	667	251		68
Paul Barjon	0.15%	667	301		112
Paul Peterson	1.40%	71	51		112
Peter Kuest	0.37%	270	81		92
Phichaksn Maichon	0.25%	400	176		68
Philip Knowles	0.07%	1429	301		41
Preston Summerhays	0.21%	476	226		67
Rayhan Thomas	0.95%	105	111		102
Rhein Gibson	0.19%	526	201		92
Rick Lamb	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	23	-0.2	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rob Oppenheim	0.17%	588	401		82
Robby Shelton	1.22%	82	81		122
Roger Sloan	2.09%	48	86	0.90%	82	-0.9	Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Steelman	1.25%	80	61		63
Russell Knox	0.55%	182	81		36
Ryan Brehm	0.25%	400	301		55
Ryan Burnett	0.16%	625	351		108
Ryan Sullivan	0.00%	10000	1501		82
Ryo Ishikawa	0.40%	250	101		51
Sam Choi	0.14%	714	351		82
Samuel Anderson	0.40%	250	201		102
Sandy Scott	0.80%	125	111
Sebastian Cappelen	0.37%	270	276		13
Shad Tuten	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	92	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Spencer Levin	0.09%	1111	351		92
Stuart Macdonald	0.81%	123	126		51
Taylor Dickson	1.87%	53	101	0.90%	41	-0.9	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Taylor Montgomery	0.95%	105	61		128
Theo Humphrey	0.17%	588	201		92
Trent Phillips	3.30%	30	23		29
Trevor Cone	1.91%	52	29		117
Trey Winstead	1.08%	93	141	0.40%	68	-0.4	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyler Duncan	0.48%	208	176		68
Tyler Leach	0.27%	370	601	0.10%	117	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyson Alexander	0.11%	909	401		68
Vicente Marzilio	0.05%	2000	501		68
Will Cannon	0.49%	204			82
Will Chandler	0.15%	667	226		126
Will Gordon	0.51%	196	91		5
Wilson Furr	0.64%	156	71		68

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Dylan Menante	3.00%	33	67	1.50%	68	-2	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Michael Feagles	1.93%	52	201	1.40%	48	-2	PaddyPower: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Michael Johnson	2.50%	40	71	1.10%	82	-2	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.