Simulation Results: Great Abaco Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Long 1.24% 81 176 0.70% 93 -0.7 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alistair Docherty 0.40% 250 41 19
Alvaro Ortiz 0.85% 118 126 0.10% Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Landry 0.03% 3333 301 136
Ashton Van Horne 0.05% 2000 401 75
Augusto Nunez 0.52% 192 176 50
Austin Cook 0.36% 278 251 115
Austin Greaser 0.24% 417 401 126
Austin Hitt 1.06% 94 67 16
Austin Smotherman 2.74% 36 26 27
Barend Botha 0.83% 120 46 109
Ben Taylor 1.35% 74 81 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Billy Kennerly 0.59% 169 176 109
Brandon Berry 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Crick 0.79% 127 91 109
Brandon Harkins 1.06% 94 51 58
Brandon Hoelzer 0.09% 1111 351 115
Caleb VanArragon 0.32% 313 301 19
Cameron Champ 0.93% 108 67 40
Carl Yuan 0.69% 145 126 93
Carter Jenkins 0.12% 833 126 93
Chandler Blanchet 0.37% 270 129
Chase Sienkiewicz 0.29% 345 161 129
Chris Crawford 0.13% 769 251 102
Chris Francoeur 0.11% 909 501 31
Christo Lamprecht 1.11% 90 36 4
Cody Blick 0.14% 714 176 50
Cody Gribble 0.13% 769 501 75
Cole Hammer 0.18% 556 151 54
Cole Sherwood 0.35% 286 161 56
Cooper Dossey 0.91% 110 151 0.20% 48 -0.2 William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dalton Ward 0.17% 588 401
Dan McCarthy 0.44% 227 111 102
David Kocher 0.30% 333 201 60
Davis Chatfield 1.62% 62 61 7
Davis Shore 1.56% 64 126 0.80% 115 -0.8 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Devaughn Robinson 0.00% 10000 1501 134
Emilio Gonzalez 1.85% 54 61 0.20% 40 -0.2 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Barnes 0.02% 5000 601 136
Etienne Papineau 0.31% 323 251 115
Fabian Gomez 0.40% 250 81 19
Garrick Higgo 1.45% 69 51 136
George McNeill 0.18% 556 301 136
Grant Hirschman 0.08% 1250 401 129
Hank Lebioda 2.24% 45 29 7
Harry Hillier 0.05% 2000 301 75
Ian Holt 0.52% 192 141 40
Jack Maguire 0.40% 250 101 129
Jacob Solomon 0.07% 1429 176 136
James Nicholas 0.23% 435 176 75
Jared Wolfe 0.02% 5000 401 109
Jeff Overton 0.11% 909 1001
Jeffrey Kang 0.24% 417 301 93
Jimmy Stanger 0.75% 133 101 58
Jin Chung 0.30% 333 251 75
Joe Weiler 0.53% 189 161 75
John Greco 0.21% 476 301 127
John Keefer 1.05% 95 34 60
John VanDerLaan 1.67% 60 31 75
Jonas Baumgartner 0.20% 500 151 7
Jorge Fernandez Valdes 0.27% 370 251 66
Josh Teater 0.53% 189 201 7
Julian Suri 0.63% 159 101 24
Justin Suh 1.01% 99 61 7
Keenan Huskey 0.10% 1000 1001 66
Kensei Hirata 1.99% 50 29 2
Kevin Chappell 1.94% 52 46 27
Kevin Dougherty 0.81% 123 126 40
KK Limbhasut 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 115 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kyle Westmoreland 0.85% 118 81 102
Luke Guthrie 0.20% 500 201 5
M.J. Daffue 0.48% 208 176 93
Marcelo Rozo 0.25% 400 201 40
Marcus Plunkett 0.13% 769 301 129
Matt Atkins 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 102 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt NeSmith 1.52% 66 61 136
Matthew Anderson 0.19% 526 301 75
Michael Johnson 0.28% 357 251 37
Mitchell Meissner 1.05% 95 76 7
Myles Creighton 0.60% 167 151 109
Nate Stember 0.22% 455 111 65
Neal Shipley 1.32% 76 34 127
Nelson Ledesma 0.15% 667 301 31
Nick Gabrelcik 0.39% 256 101 115
Nick Watney 0.76% 132 126 102
Nicolo Galletti 0.52% 192 126 75
Owen Stamper 0.33% 303 251 109
Patrick Cover 0.15% 667 401 66
Paul Barjon 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 93 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Haley 0.11% 909 501 75
Peter Kuest 1.11% 90 161 0.50% 66 -0.5 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Petr Hruby 0.12% 833 251 31
Pierceson Coody 2.26% 44 26 113
Pontus Nyholm 1.12% 89 61 37
Rayhan Thomas 1.12% 89 67 7
Rhein Gibson 0.47% 213 201 93
Richy Werenski 0.51% 196 161 19
Rick Lamb 1.47% 68 51 27
Rob Oppenheim 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robby Shelton 2.03% 49 34 5
Robert Streb 0.54% 185 151 135
Roberto Diaz 1.51% 66 81 0.30% 115 -0.3 Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Steelman 1.03% 97 67 31
Russell Knox 2.51% 40 46 0.30% 2 1.2 Skybet: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Armour 0.80% 125 176 0.20% 75 -0.2 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Blaum 0.24% 417 301 24
Ryan Brehm 0.67% 149 401 0.40% 56 -0.4 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Burnett 0.16% 625 301 115
Ryan McCormick 0.85% 118 101 66
Sam Bennett 0.35% 286 91 115
Samuel Anderson 0.15% 667 251 50
Sandy Scott 0.81% 123 126 66
Scott Piercy 0.29% 345 276 75
Sean O'Hair 0.39% 256 501 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Cappelen 3.10% 32 151 2.50% 37 -2.5 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Seonghyeon Kim 3.01% 33 23 117
Seth Reeves 0.35% 286 301
Seungtaek Lee 0.69% 145 71 50
Seung-Yul Noh 2.75% 36 26 27
Shad Tuten 0.98% 102 67 19
Spencer Levin 0.21% 476 301 115
Stuart Macdonald 0.04% 2500 251 75
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.18% 556 301 1
T.J. Vogel 0.38% 263 201 16
Taiga Semikawa 1.27% 79 41 40
Tanner Gore 0.28% 357 301 40
Tano Goya 0.16% 625 126 115
Thomas Walsh 0.33% 303 251 66
Tom Whitney 0.91% 110 81 40
Tommy Gainey 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 93 -0.1 Paddy Power: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Trace Crowe 1.64% 61 67 0.10% 62 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trent Phillips 0.90% 111 141 0.20% 136 -0.2 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Trevor Werbylo 0.20% 500 501 31
Trey Winstead 0.68% 147 101 7
Tyler Duncan 0.92% 109 56 26
Tyson Alexander 0.46% 217 226 31
Vince Covello 0.02% 5000 501 75
William Cannon 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
William McGirt 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 16 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilson Furr 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zach Bauchou 2.13% 47 46 75
Zach James 0.13% 769 301 7
Zack Fischer 0.16% 625 201 75
Zecheng Dou 1.29% 78 51 93

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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