Simulation Results: Founders Cup

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.70%	37
Aditi Ashok	0.23%	435
Akie Iwai	1.55%	65
Albane Valenzuela	0.01%	10000
Alexa Pano	0.04%	2500
Aline Krauter	0.00%	10000
Allisen Corpuz	0.85%	118
Amy Yang	0.30%	333
Ana Belac	0.02%	5000
Andrea Lee	1.56%	64
Angel Yin	0.05%	2000
Anna Nordqvist	0.00%	10000
Anne Chen	0.00%	10000
Arpichaya Yubol	0.01%	10000
Auston Kim	2.08%	48
Ayaka Furue	2.98%	34
Azahara Munoz	0.01%	10000
Bailey Tardy	0.00%	10000
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000
Brianna Do	0.01%	10000
Brooke Matthews	0.19%	526
Camille Boyd	0.00%	10000
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.01%	10000
Carlota Ciganda	0.24%	417
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.01%	10000
Carolina Melgrati	0.00%	10000
Cassie Porter	0.32%	313
Celine Borge	0.00%	10000
Celine Boutier	0.48%	208
Chella Choi	0.00%	10000
Chiara Tamburlini	0.01%	10000
Chisato Iwai	3.32%	30
Cocona Sakurai	0.01%	10000
Dewi Weber	0.02%	5000
Dongeun Lee	0.46%	217
Emma McMyler	0.00%	10000
Erica Shepherd	0.00%	10000
Erika Hara	0.32%	313
Esther Henseleit	0.53%	189
Frida Kinhult	0.01%	10000
Gaby Lopez	0.84%	119
Gemma Dryburgh	0.05%	2000
Gina Kim	0.00%	10000
Grace Kim	0.44%	227
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000
Haeji Kang	0.00%	10000
Haeran Ryu	5.05%	20
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000
Helen Briem	0.05%	2000
Hinako Shibuno	0.01%	10000
Hira Naveed	0.00%	10000
Hye-Jin Choi	5.34%	19
Hyo Joo Kim	4.01%	25
Ilhee Lee	0.00%	10000
In Gee Chun	0.03%	3333
Ina Yoon	0.62%	161
Ingrid Lindblad	0.00%	10000
Isabella Fierro	0.02%	5000
Isi Gabsa	0.00%	10000
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.08%	1250
Jeeno Thitikul	12.04%	8.3
Jennifer Kupcho	0.13%	769
Jenny Bae	0.28%	357
Jeongeun Lee5	0.01%	10000
Jessica Porvasnik	0.02%	5000
Jin Hee Im	0.18%	556
Jing Yan	0.04%	2500
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.01%	10000
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.05%	2000
Juniper Jang	0.00%	10000
Karis Davidson	0.12%	833
Kumkang Park	0.00%	10000
Laetitia Beck	0.00%	10000
Laney Frye	0.02%	5000
Lauren Coughlin	0.13%	769
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000
Leah John	0.00%	10000
Leona Maguire	0.06%	1667
Lilia Vu	0.00%	10000
Lindy Duncan	1.14%	88
Linn Grant	1.25%	80
Linnea Strom	0.02%	5000
Lottie Woad	4.11%	24
Lucy Li	0.24%	417
Lydia Ko	2.91%	34
Madelene Sagstrom	0.08%	1250
Maja Stark	0.20%	500
Manon De Roey	0.04%	2500
Mao Saigo	0.70%	143
Mary Liu	0.03%	3333
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.00%	10000
Megan Khang	0.17%	588
Melanie Green	0.01%	10000
Michelle Zhang	0.00%	10000
Mimi Rhodes	0.34%	294
Minami Katsu	0.25%	400
Minjee Lee	5.33%	19
Minji Kang	0.00%	10000
Miyu Yamashita	3.60%	28
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.78%	128
Narin An	0.03%	3333
Nasa Hataoka	3.05%	33
Nastasia Nadaud	0.03%	3333
Nataliya Guseva	0.05%	2000
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.01%	10000
Nelly Korda	16.14%	6.2
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.13%	769
Patty Tavatanakit	0.55%	182
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.06%	1667
Peiyun Chien	0.11%	909
Perrine Delacour	0.04%	2500
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000
Pornanong Phatlum	0.05%	2000
Riley Smyth	0.00%	10000
Rio Takeda	1.96%	51
Robyn Choi	0.04%	2500
Rose Zhang	0.86%	116
Ruixin Liu	0.01%	10000
Ryann O'Toole	0.00%	10000
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000
Sei Young Kim	3.48%	29
Somi Lee	1.44%	69
Soo Bin Joo	0.00%	10000
Sophia Schubert	0.00%	10000
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.00%	10000
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.00%	10000
Victoria Cui	0.00%	10000
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.02%	5000
Weiwei Zhang	0.50%	200
Xiao-Long Zhong	0.00%	10000
Yan Liu	0.36%	278
Yana Wilson	0.01%	10000
Yani Tseng	0.02%	5000
Yealimi Noh	0.05%	2000
Youmin Hwang	1.51%	66
Yu Liu	0.23%	435
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000
Yuna Nishimura	0.03%	3333
Yuri Yoshida	0.05%	2000

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN:
WIN:
WIN:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.