Simulation Results: Tournament of Champions

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.52%	40	29
Akie Iwai	1.83%	55	34
Amy Yang	0.10%	1000	151
Angel Yin	0.11%	909	91
Austin Ernst	0.00%	10000	601
Ayaka Furue	2.12%	47	41
Bailey Tardy	0.01%	10000	501
Brooke M. Henderson	5.29%	19	23	1.00%			BetGoodwin: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.02%	5000	351
Charley Hull	8.72%	11	13	1.10%			BetGoodwin: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chisato Iwai	2.76%	36	29
Haeran Ryu	3.83%	26	26
Ingrid Lindblad	0.06%	1667	151
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.03%	3333	351
Jeeno Thitikul	22.49%	4.4	4.5	0.30%			Bet365: 3.5/1, 4pl, 1/5
Jennifer Kupcho	0.75%	133	41
Jin Hee Im	0.87%	115	41
Lauren Coughlin	0.48%	208	61
Lilia Vu	0.00%	10000	201
Linn Grant	1.52%	66	29
Linnea Strom	0.00%	10000	351
Lottie Woad	2.72%	37	23
Lydia Ko	3.01%	33	17
Madelene Sagstrom	0.07%	1429	201
Maja Stark	0.19%	526	101
Mao Saigo	2.07%	48	29
Miranda Wang	0.16%	625	126
Miyu Yamashita	3.22%	31	19
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	601
Nasa Hataoka	7.45%	13	15	0.80%			BetGoodwin: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nelly Korda	19.43%	5.1	7	6.00%			BetGoodwin: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit	0.52%	192	71
Rio Takeda	2.44%	41	26
Rose Zhang	0.78%	128	41
Ruoning Yin	1.67%	60	29
Somi Lee	1.90%	53	31
Yealimi Noh	0.19%	526	81
Youmin Hwang	0.70%	143	41
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	501

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	3.34%	30	26
Akie Iwai	3.02%	33	29
Amy Yang	1.42%	70	67
Angel Yin	1.45%	69	56
Austin Ernst	0.31%	323	126
Ayaka Furue	3.15%	32	31
Bailey Tardy	0.80%	125	101
Brooke M. Henderson	4.16%	24	26	0.30%			Skybet: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.84%	119	91
Charley Hull	4.83%	21	17
Chisato Iwai	3.42%	29	26
Haeran Ryu	3.77%	27	26
Ingrid Lindblad	1.30%	77	81	0.10%			QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.04%	96	91
Jeeno Thitikul	6.91%	14	10
Jennifer Kupcho	2.44%	41	34
Jin Hee Im	2.50%	40	34
Lauren Coughlin	2.14%	47	41
Lilia Vu	0.65%	154	111
Linn Grant	2.90%	34	26
Linnea Strom	0.77%	130	101
Lottie Woad	3.49%	29	23
Lydia Ko	3.54%	28	19
Madelene Sagstrom	1.41%	71	81	0.20%			William Hill: 80/1, 4pl, 1/5
Maja Stark	1.68%	60	56
Mao Saigo	3.13%	32	26
Miranda Wang	1.62%	62	67	0.10%			Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miyu Yamashita	3.50%	29	21
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.70%	143	126
Nasa Hataoka	4.72%	21	19
Nelly Korda	6.64%	15	13
Patty Tavatanakit	2.21%	45	41
Rio Takeda	3.23%	31	26
Rose Zhang	2.48%	40	34
Ruoning Yin	3.11%	32	29
Somi Lee	3.01%	33	29
Yealimi Noh	1.63%	61	51
Youmin Hwang	2.26%	44	31
Yuka Saso	0.50%	200	151

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Nelly Korda	19.43%	5.1	7	6.00%			BetGoodwin: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charley Hull	8.72%	11	13	1.10%			BetGoodwin: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Brooke M. Henderson	5.29%	19	23	1.00%			BetGoodwin: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brooke M. Henderson	4.16%	24	26	0.30%			Skybet: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Madelene Sagstrom	1.41%	71	81	0.20%			William Hill: 80/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Miranda Wang	1.62%	62	67	0.10%			Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ingrid Lindblad	1.30%	77	81	0.10%			QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays and FRL plays will be posted on Wednesdays once markets and odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

The simulation results will be updated whenever there is a field update. Check the page updates and/or subscribe to email alerts to see if the simulation results have been updated.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.