Simulation Results: Women's U.S. Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.10% 91 51 26
Abbey Daniel 0.00% 10000 3001 141
Ai Suzuki 0.28% 357 126 98
Aira Nagasawa 0.00% 10000 1001 133
Akie Iwai 1.18% 85 67 45
Albane Valenzuela 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 91 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Aline Krauter 0.11% 909 401 28
Allisen Corpuz 0.97% 103 67 31
Amanda Doherty 0.08% 1250 1251 129
Amari Avery 0.03% 3333 501 45
Amy Yang 0.49% 204 226 36
Andie Smith 0.00% 10000 1001 133
Andrea Lee 1.31% 76 67 22
Angel Yin 1.25% 80 46 9
Anna Huang 0.04% 2500 1501 112
Anna Nordqvist 0.22% 455 401 31
Ariya Jutanugarn 2.00% 50 46 9
Arpichaya Yubol 0.40% 250 251 112
Ashleigh Buhai 0.46% 217 176 61
Asterisk Talley 0.03% 3333 501 61
Auston Kim 0.43% 233 176 31
Ayaka Furue 1.55% 65 46 91
Brooke Biermann 0.00% 10000 1001 122
Brooke M. Henderson 1.09% 92 91 98
Caley McGinty 0.00% 10000 1501 98
Carla Bernat 0.01% 10000 276 98
Carlota Ciganda 2.07% 48 56 0.30% 98 -0.3 BetVictor: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra 0.00% 10000 501 36
Celeste Dao 0.00% 10000 2001 147
Celine Borge 0.09% 1111 1501 58
Celine Boutier 2.40% 42 46 0.20% 45 -0.2 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.36% 278 131 61
Charley Hull 2.07% 48 46 12
Chiara Tamburlini 0.31% 323 176 14
Chisato Iwai 1.92% 52 41 22
Dana Fall 0.01% 10000 2001 141
Dana Williams 0.00% 10000 3001 155
Daniela Darquea 0.06% 1667 1001 61
Dasom Ma 0.75% 133 91 61
Dottie Ardina 0.12% 833 1501 0.10% 150 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elina Sinz 0.00% 10000 1251 122
Emily Odwin 0.00% 10000 1001 98
Esther Henseleit 1.53% 65 61 22
Farah O'Keefe 0.01% 10000 501 36
Gabriela Ruffels 0.31% 323 251 112
Gabriella Kano 0.00% 10000 2501 149
Gaby Lopez 0.65% 154 131 19
Gemma Dryburgh 0.25% 400 1001 0.20% 51 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grace Kim 0.34% 294 201 98
Gurleen Kaur 0.03% 3333 1001 147
Haeran Ryu 4.42% 23 17 36
Hailee Cooper 0.22% 455 401 7
Hana Ryskova 0.00% 10000 1001 133
Hanna Alberto 0.00% 10000 2501 133
Hannah Green 1.38% 72 61 12
Hazuki Kimura 0.00% 10000 1001 143
Hinako Shibuno 0.09% 1111 276 7
Hye-Jin Choi 2.32% 43 41 4
Hyo Joo Kim 2.60% 38 26 83
Hyunjo Yoo 0.72% 139 126 36
Ikeba Hinata 0.35% 286 1001 0.30% 150 -0.3 Spreadex: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ilhee Lee 0.00% 10000 1501 91
In Gee Chun 0.26% 385 401 54
Ina Yoon 1.03% 97 126 0.20% 14 -0.2 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad 0.68% 147 111 35
Isi Gabsa 0.01% 10000 2501 112
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.20% 500 501 112
Jeeno Thitikul 6.33% 16 10 75
Jennifer Elliott 0.00% 10000 2001 133
Jennifer Kupcho 0.84% 119 111 75
Jenny Shin 0.85% 118 161 0.20% 122 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee5 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 91 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee6 0.08% 1250 601 98
Jin Hee Im 2.08% 48 51 0.10% 51 -0.1 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jin Young Ko 3.13% 32 26 14
Jing Yan 0.13% 769 601 28
Jiwon Jeon 0.18% 556 601 61
Jiyai Shin 0.38% 263 91 112
Jude Lee 0.00% 10000 1001 75
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.13% 769 501 19
Kaile Vongsaga 0.00% 10000 1501 83
Kary Hollenbaugh 0.00% 10000 601 112
Katelyn Kong 0.00% 10000 1501 143
Katie Li 0.06% 1667 1001 129
Kelly Tan 0.01% 10000 2001 129
Kiara Romero 0.00% 10000 1001 45
Kim Metraux 0.01% 10000 2001 153
Klara Davidson Spilkova 0.06% 1667 1001 59
Kotona Izumida 0.05% 2000 601 98
Lauren Coughlin 2.15% 47 36 122
Lauren Nguyen 0.00% 10000 2001 156
Leah John 0.00% 10000 133
Leona Maguire 0.29% 345 276 83
Leta Lindley 0.00% 10000 2501 133
Lexi Thompson 1.03% 97 126 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lilia Vu 0.17% 588 111 154
Lindy Duncan 1.29% 78 91 0.20% 112 -0.2 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linn Grant 1.29% 78 67 9
Linnea Strom 0.05% 2000 751 75
Lottie Woad 0.15% 667 151 31
Lydia Ko 2.79% 36 26 26
Madelene Sagstrom 0.20% 500 351 19
Maja Stark 0.28% 357 226 1
Manon De Roey 0.44% 227 276 0.10% 98 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mao Saigo 1.20% 83 67 4
Maria Fassi 0.02% 5000 2501 83
Maria Marin 0.90% 111 601 0.70% 55 -0.7 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Megan Khang 1.07% 93 67 133
Mi Hyang Lee 0.71% 141 141 91
Minami Katsu 0.72% 139 1001 0.60% 83 -0.6 Unibet: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Minjee Lee 2.96% 34 29 22
Miyu Yamashita 2.21% 45 51 0.30% 36 -0.3 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.04% 2500 601 75
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 0.49% 204 181 61
Nanoko Hayashi 0.01% 10000 1251 98
Napat Lertsadwattana 0.01% 10000 1001 129
Narin An 0.40% 250 226 83
Nasa Hataoka 1.80% 56 61 0.20% 75 -0.2 Unibet: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nataliya Guseva 0.51% 196 181 36
Nelly Korda 4.38% 23 11 2
Nicha Kanpai 0.00% 10000 1001 112
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.62% 161 161 61
Patty Tavatanakit 0.44% 227 111 98
Paula Martin Sampedro 0.00% 10000 1001 61
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.10% 1000 501 28
Pei-Ying Tsai 0.04% 2500 751 98
Pia Babnik 0.03% 3333 601 75
Rayee Feng 0.00% 10000 1001 51
Rianne Mikhaela Malixi 0.04% 2500 501 145
Rio Takeda 2.19% 46 34 2
Rose Zhang 0.26% 385 101 61
Ruoning Yin 3.62% 28 17 4
Saki Baba 0.14% 714 351 36
Sakura Koiwai 0.75% 133 76 45
Sarah Lim 0.00% 10000 2001 145
Sarah Schmelzel 1.16% 86 91 0.10% 14 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sei Young Kim 0.54% 185 111 91
Seunghui Ro 0.37% 270 276 61
Shiho Kuwaki 0.43% 233 126 56
Sohyun Bae 0.59% 169 501 0.40% 112 -0.4 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sophia Lee 0.00% 10000 1001 150
Sophia Popov 0.04% 2500 601 83
Sophie Hausmann 0.01% 10000 2001 45
Stephanie Kyriacou 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 91 -0.2 Priced Up: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Suji Kim 0.92% 109 201 0.40% 83 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sung Hyun Park 0.04% 2500 1001 122
Vanessa Borovilos 0.02% 5000 1001 98
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 61 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wichanee Meechai 0.08% 1250 751 60
Yani Tseng 0.00% 10000 2501 61
Yealimi Noh 1.46% 68 46 14
Youmin Hwang 0.74% 135 111 56
Yui Kawamoto 0.51% 196 141 36
Yuka Saso 0.04% 2500 201 61
Yuna Nishimura 0.11% 909 751 122
Yu-Sang Hou 0.00% 10000 1251 122

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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