Simulation Results: U.S. Women's Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.56%	179	86		19
Addie Dobson	0.00%	10000	2001		139
Ai Suzuki	0.10%	1000	176		130
Akie Iwai	1.49%	67	51		44
Alison Lee	0.86%	116	81		14
Allisen Corpuz	0.84%	119	61		8
Ally Ewing	0.20%	500	401		103
Amiyu Ozeki	0.00%	10000	1501		81
Amy Lee	0.00%	10000			143
Amy Yang	0.01%	10000	351		40
Ana Belac	0.01%	10000	501		34
Andrea Lee	0.35%	286	101		69
Angel Yin	0.76%	132	46		69
Anita Lumpongpoung	0.00%	10000	2501		113
Anna Huang	0.06%	1667	151		81
Anna Nordqvist	0.07%	1429	401		54
Aphrodite Deng	0.44%	227	301	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.30%	333	176		60
Ashleigh Buhai	0.02%	5000	751		124
Asterisk Talley	0.34%	294	201		22
Athena Singh	0.00%	10000	1501		124
Auston Kim	0.38%	263	81		92
Ayaka Furue	1.12%	89	71		40
Becky Morgan	0.00%	10000	2501		153
Bianca Pagdanganan	0.01%	10000	501		49
Brianna Do	0.00%	10000	801		69
Brittany Lang	0.00%	10000	1501		113
Bronte Law	0.00%	10000	2501		103
Brooke M. Henderson	0.91%	110	141	0.20%	22	-0.2	Spreadex: 140/1, 7pl, 1/5
Carla Bernat	0.00%	10000	251		124
Carlota Ciganda	0.17%	588	101		103
Casandra Alexander	0.49%	204	126		44
Catherine Park	0.02%	5000	301		103
Celine Boutier	2.54%	39	56	0.80%	66	-0.8	Spreadex: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.05%	2000	501		69
Charley Hull	2.11%	47	46		2
Chia Yen Wu	0.07%	1429	226		54
Chiara Tamburlini	0.03%	3333	501		92
Chisato Iwai	0.88%	114	56		113
Chloe Kovelesky	0.00%	10000	1001		81
Danielle Kang	0.00%	10000	1001		143
Dayeon Lee	0.83%	120	126		53
Dewi Weber	0.02%	5000	501		92
Esther Henseleit	0.20%	500	176		49
Farah O'Keefe	0.55%	182	176		34
Fuka Suga	0.20%	500	201		69
Gaby Lopez	1.74%	57	56		2
Gina Kim	0.00%	10000	501		130
Grace Kim	0.35%	286	151		22
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	1001		65
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000	1001		156
Hannah Green	3.01%	33	19		28
Hinako Shibuno	0.00%	10000	351		17
Hye-Jin Choi	3.92%	26	31	0.70%	49	-0.7	Spreadex: 30/1, 7pl, 1/5
Hyo Joo Kim	6.87%	15	15	0.20%	113	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyunjo Yoo	1.29%	78	201	0.80%	34	-0.8	Spreadex: 200/1, 7pl, 1/5
In Gee Chun	0.17%	588	226		4
Ina Kim-Schaad	0.00%	10000	1501		150
Ina Yoon	2.96%	34	41	0.50%	69	-0.5	Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad	0.01%	10000	501		60
Jaravee Boonchant	0.03%	3333	501		113
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.03%	3333	601		113
Jeeno Thitikul	9.30%	11	11	0.20%	28	-0.2	Spreadex: 9/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jennifer Kupcho	0.87%	115	81		8
Jenny Bae	0.30%	333	126		113
Jeongeun Lee6	0.01%	10000	501		81
Jie-En Lin	0.00%	10000	1001		143
Jin Hee Im	0.59%	169	67		19
Jin Young Ko	0.17%	588	101		139
Jiwon Ko	0.30%	333	251		153
Jiyai Shin	0.06%	1667	161		34
Johanna Sjursen	0.00%	10000	1501		149
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.05%	2000	251		60
Jungmin Hong	0.09%	1111	351		130
Kaleiya Romero	0.01%	10000	1501		49
Karis Davidson	0.09%	1111			22
Katelyn Kong	0.00%	10000	1001		151
Katherine Muzi	0.00%	10000	2001		151
Kaylyn Noh	0.00%	10000	601		143
Kiara Romero	0.03%	3333	251		6
Laney Frye	0.01%	10000	601		92
Lauren Coughlin	0.20%	500	151		14
Lauren Kim	0.00%	10000	501		130
Leona Maguire	0.15%	667	226		113
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	501		69
Lindy Duncan	0.22%	455	201		81
Linn Grant	0.49%	204	126		124
Liqi Zeng	0.01%	10000	601		60
Lois Lau	0.00%	10000	1501		103
Lottie Woad	2.83%	35	36	0.10%	49	-0.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 7pl, 1/5
Lucy Li	0.07%	1429	276		34
Lydia Ko	2.55%	39	29		69
Madelene Sagstrom	0.01%	10000	351		130
Maja Stark	0.19%	526	111		8
Mao Saigo	0.35%	286	101		59
Maria Marin	0.71%	141	151		8
Megan Khang	0.42%	238	126		69
Megha Ganne	0.00%	10000	251		69
Meja Ortengren	0.00%	10000	201		69
Melanie Green	0.33%	303	151		40
Mi Hyang Lee	0.27%	370	226		113
Michelle Wie West	0.00%	10000	2501		92
Mimi Rhodes	0.04%	2500	201		81
Minami Katsu	0.71%	141	71		103
Minjee Lee	1.03%	97	36		28
Minji Kang	0.03%	3333	351		19
Minsol Kim	0.61%	164	251	0.20%	54	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Miranda Wang	0.00%	10000	1001		155
Miyu Goto	0.00%	10000	1501		139
Miyu Yamashita	4.21%	24	21		34
Muni He	0.01%	10000	601		130
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.54%	185	201		54
Napat Lertsadwattana	0.00%	10000	1501		92
Nasa Hataoka	0.90%	111	51		6
Nataliya Guseva	0.03%	3333	501		67
Natsumi Hayakawa	0.00%	10000	2501		147
Nellie Ong	0.00%	10000	501		130
Nelly Korda	18.29%	5.5	5.5	0.10%	1	0.27	Spreadex: 4.5/1, 7pl, 1/5
Olivia Mehaffey	0.00%	10000	1501		130
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.08%	1250	301		8
Patty Tavatanakit	0.90%	111	71		22
Paula Francisco	0.00%	10000	501		69
Paula Martin Sampedro	0.04%	2500	226		81
Paula Reto	0.01%	10000	1501		92
Pauline del Rosario	0.00%	10000			139
Peiyun Chien	0.06%	1667	501		81
Rio Takeda	1.81%	55	46		44
Rose Zhang	0.58%	172	76		44
Ruoning Yin	5.20%	19	15		8
Sakura Koiwai	0.02%	5000	501		60
Sarah Hammett	0.00%	10000	1501		148
Sayaka Takahashi	0.11%	909	226		103
Sei Young Kim	1.56%	64	46		5
Shiho Kuwaki	0.27%	370	101		14
Shuri Sakuma	1.25%	80	126	0.50%	22	-0.5	Spreadex: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Siuue Wu	0.00%	10000	1001		130
Sofia Rivera	0.00%	10000	1501		92
Somi Lee	1.54%	65	61		40
Soomin Oh	0.00%	10000	301		92
Sora Kamiya	0.29%	345	226		28
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.00%	10000	1001		81
Sung Hyun Park	0.01%	10000	501		103
Thanana Kotchasanmanee	0.00%	10000	601		124
Veronika Kedronova	0.00%	10000	501		113
Weiwei Zhang	0.01%	10000	601		103
Xiyu Lin	0.08%	1250	501		28
Yan Liu	0.35%	286	201		92
Yani Tseng	0.00%	10000	1001		92
Yealimi Noh	0.03%	3333	351		54
Youmin Hwang	0.81%	123	91		81
Yue Zhang	0.00%	10000			68
Yui Kawamoto	0.26%	385	91		124
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	401		113
Yuna Araki	0.14%	714	161		81
Yuri Yoshida	0.15%	667	301		28
Zoe Cusack	0.00%	10000	1501

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.74%	135	81		28
Addie Dobson	0.00%	10000	351		127
Ai Suzuki	0.47%	213	111		148
Akie Iwai	0.97%	103	67		42
Alison Lee	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	14	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Allisen Corpuz	0.89%	112	67		28
Ally Ewing	0.87%	115	201	0.40%	56	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amiyu Ozeki	0.18%	556	301		85
Amy Lee	0.22%	455	151		140
Amy Yang	0.49%	204	176		56
Ana Belac	0.41%	244	251		14
Andrea Lee	1.06%	94	91		42
Angel Yin	1.32%	76	51		56
Anita Lumpongpoung	0.00%	10000	351		85
Anna Huang	0.37%	270	101		104
Anna Nordqvist	0.41%	244	201		85
Aphrodite Deng	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	14	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.58%	172	101		56
Ashleigh Buhai	0.31%	323	251		127
Asterisk Talley	1.01%	99	101		28
Athena Singh	0.01%	10000	351		140
Auston Kim	0.61%	164	71		85
Ayaka Furue	1.42%	70	71		14
Becky Morgan	0.06%	1667	351		153
Bianca Pagdanganan	0.24%	417	251		14
Brianna Do	0.37%	270	251		85
Brittany Lang	0.16%	625	351		104
Bronte Law	0.05%	2000	351		56
Brooke M. Henderson	0.89%	112	101		56
Carla Bernat	0.39%	256	151		56
Carlota Ciganda	0.54%	185	91		118
Casandra Alexander	0.68%	147	101		28
Catherine Park	0.46%	217	176		85
Celine Boutier	1.22%	82	56		85
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.59%	169	176		104
Charley Hull	1.18%	85	56		56
Chia Yen Wu	0.71%	141	111		42
Chiara Tamburlini	0.55%	182	151		28
Chisato Iwai	0.87%	115	67		127
Chloe Kovelesky	0.01%	10000	351		56
Danielle Kang	0.23%	435	301		150
Dayeon Lee	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	17	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dewi Weber	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	104	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Esther Henseleit	0.90%	111	101		56
Farah O'Keefe	0.70%	143	111		85
Fuka Suga	0.58%	172	126		104
Gaby Lopez	1.69%	59	67	0.20%	3	0.936	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gina Kim	0.22%	455	251		104
Grace Kim	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	42	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur	0.17%	588	301		42
Hailee Cooper	0.08%	1250	351		118
Hannah Green	2.00%	50	34		14
Hinako Shibuno	0.19%	526	151		3
Hye-Jin Choi	1.34%	75	41		14
Hyo Joo Kim	2.74%	36	29		85
Hyunjo Yoo	1.55%	65	126	0.80%	3	6.94	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
In Gee Chun	0.55%	182	126		28
Ina Kim-Schaad	0.01%	10000	351		140
Ina Yoon	2.00%	50	46		3
Ingrid Lindblad	0.43%	233	201		56
Jaravee Boonchant	0.28%	357	201		127
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	56	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeeno Thitikul	1.87%	53	26		56
Jennifer Kupcho	0.88%	114	71		1
Jenny Bae	0.64%	156	101		127
Jeongeun Lee6	0.24%	417	251		42
Jie-En Lin	0.03%	3333	351		127
Jin Hee Im	0.72%	139	67		85
Jin Young Ko	0.89%	112	81		104
Jiwon Ko	1.02%	98	151	0.40%	127	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jiyai Shin	0.40%	250	111		8
Johanna Sjursen	0.02%	5000	351		140
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.66%	152	151		42
Jungmin Hong	0.45%	222	151		150
Kaleiya Romero	0.22%	455	301		28
Karis Davidson	0.65%	154	151		8
Katelyn Kong	0.01%	10000	351		140
Katherine Muzi	0.06%	1667	351		156
Kaylyn Noh	0.00%	10000	251		148
Kiara Romero	0.28%	357	126		56
Laney Frye	0.22%	455	251		56
Lauren Coughlin	0.57%	175	111		42
Lauren Kim	0.09%	1111	201		118
Leona Maguire	0.84%	119	126		118
Lilia Vu	0.24%	417	251		104
Lindy Duncan	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	28	-0.1	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linn Grant	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	127	-0.1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Liqi Zeng	0.18%	556	201		56
Lois Lau	0.17%	588	351		153
Lottie Woad	1.98%	51	41		56
Lucy Li	0.68%	147	151		28
Lydia Ko	1.20%	83	41		85
Madelene Sagstrom	0.47%	213	176		127
Maja Stark	0.91%	110	81		28
Mao Saigo	0.63%	159	91		118
Maria Marin	1.25%	80	101	0.30%	14	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Megan Khang	0.69%	145	101		104
Megha Ganne	0.13%	769	151		85
Meja Ortengren	0.20%	500	126		56
Melanie Green	0.61%	164	101		42
Mi Hyang Lee	0.92%	109	126	0.10%	118	-0.1	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michelle Wie West	0.01%	10000	351		104
Mimi Rhodes	0.35%	286	111		56
Minami Katsu	0.71%	141	67		118
Minjee Lee	1.49%	67	46		8
Minji Kang	0.34%	294	151		3
Minsol Kim	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	56	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miranda Wang	0.31%	323	351		153
Miyu Goto	0.18%	556	301		85
Miyu Yamashita	2.19%	46	34		42
Muni He	0.44%	227	251		118
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.75%	133	126		56
Napat Lertsadwattana	0.23%	435	351		56
Nasa Hataoka	1.40%	71	56		8
Nataliya Guseva	0.51%	196	176		42
Natsumi Hayakawa	0.01%	10000	351		127
Nellie Ong	0.01%	10000	201		56
Nelly Korda	3.94%	25	15		56
Olivia Mehaffey	0.05%	2000	351		104
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.44%	227	151		56
Patty Tavatanakit	0.87%	115	67		8
Paula Francisco	0.01%	10000	251		14
Paula Martin Sampedro	0.58%	172	126		85
Paula Reto	0.22%	455	301		127
Pauline del Rosario	0.05%	2000	501		140
Peiyun Chien	0.38%	263	251		85
Rio Takeda	1.07%	93	56		118
Rose Zhang	0.70%	143	67		14
Ruoning Yin	2.49%	40	26		8
Sakura Koiwai	0.53%	189	251	0.10%	85	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Hammett	0.08%	1250	351		150
Sayaka Takahashi	0.73%	137	126		28
Sei Young Kim	1.68%	60	56		2
Shiho Kuwaki	0.99%	101	81		14
Shuri Sakuma	1.50%	67	101	0.50%	28	-0.5	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Siuue Wu	0.01%	10000	351		56
Sofia Rivera	0.00%	10000	351		104
Somi Lee	1.01%	99	67		28
Soomin Oh	0.16%	625	176		85
Sora Kamiya	0.61%	164	126		42
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.31%	323	351		14
Sung Hyun Park	0.39%	256	251		104
Thanana Kotchasanmanee	0.00%	10000	251		140
Veronika Kedronova	0.02%	5000	251		127
Weiwei Zhang	0.26%	385	201		140
Xiyu Lin	0.72%	139	251	0.30%	56	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yan Liu	1.05%	95	111	0.20%	56	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yani Tseng	0.16%	625	301		56
Yealimi Noh	0.35%	286	151		42
Youmin Hwang	1.33%	75	71		85
Yue Zhang	0.07%	1429	1001		14
Yui Kawamoto	0.57%	175	71		104
Yuka Saso	0.13%	769	176		127
Yuna Araki	0.51%	196	111		42
Yuri Yoshida	0.83%	120	176	0.30%	14	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zoe Cusack	0.01%	10000	351

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Celine Boutier	2.54%	39	56	0.80%	66	-2	Spreadex: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Hyunjo Yoo	1.29%	78	201	0.80%	34	-2	Spreadex: 200/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	3.92%	26	31	0.70%	49	-2	Spreadex: 30/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Hyunjo Yoo	1.55%	65	126	0.80%	3	8.675	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Shuri Sakuma	1.50%	67	101	0.50%	28	-1	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dayeon Lee	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	17	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jiwon Ko	1.02%	98	151	0.40%	127	-1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ally Ewing	0.87%	115	201	0.40%	56	-1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Maria Marin	1.25%	80	101	0.30%	14	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.