Simulation Results: Tour Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.08% 48 41 43
Akie Iwai 0.96% 104 46 19
Allisen Corpuz 0.19% 526 141 26
Andrea Lee 0.80% 125 56 33
Angel Yin 0.11% 909 126 57
Ariya Jutanugarn 0.40% 250 76 33
Auston Kim 0.30% 333 81 7
Ayaka Furue 0.91% 110 71 26
Brooke M. Henderson 3.18% 31 41 0.80% 7 -0.8 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews 0.17% 588 81 59
Carlota Ciganda 0.15% 667 101 39
Celine Boutier 4.39% 23 36 1.70% 47 -1.7 Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.01% 10000 501 60
Charley Hull 10.72% 9.3 17 5.10% 19 -5.1 Skybet: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chisato Iwai 1.17% 85 46 13
Esther Henseleit 0.47% 213 101 47
Gaby Lopez 0.51% 196 67 4
Grace Kim 0.30% 333 81 26
Haeran Ryu 1.33% 75 41 10
Hannah Green 1.16% 86 41 51
Hye-Jin Choi 3.69% 27 26 26
Hyo Joo Kim 2.76% 36 31 41
Ingrid Lindblad 0.01% 10000 351 26
Jeeno Thitikul 13.88% 7.2 7.5 0.60% 1 2.4375 BetMGM: 6.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho 1.75% 57 46 51
Jenny Bae 0.02% 5000 301 10
Jin Hee Im 0.37% 270 96 13
Jin Young Ko 0.89% 112 81 46
Lauren Coughlin 0.25% 400 81 47
Leona Maguire 0.03% 3333 501 58
Lexi Thompson 0.03% 3333 111 19
Lindy Duncan 0.52% 192 81 33
Linn Grant 1.80% 56 34 43
Lottie Woad 1.61% 62 34 19
Lucy Li 0.04% 2500 131 39
Lydia Ko 2.30% 43 23 41
Madelene Sagstrom 0.09% 1111 276 55
Maja Stark 0.02% 5000 201 19
Manon De Roey 0.04% 2500 181 47
Mao Saigo 2.02% 50 41 19
Megan Khang 0.53% 189 71 51
Mi Hyang Lee 0.13% 769 276 43
Minami Katsu 0.21% 476 76 26
Minjee Lee 6.01% 17 17 0.10% 13 -0.1 PaddyPower: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miranda Wang 0.04% 2500 161 26
Miyu Yamashita 2.40% 42 21 36
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.12% 89 61 36
Nasa Hataoka 4.25% 24 21 5
Nataliya Guseva 0.06% 1667 71 36
Nelly Korda 14.49% 6.9 12 6.70% 3 5.8625 Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.06% 1667 276 2
Patty Tavatanakit 0.05% 2000 176 7
Rio Takeda 1.25% 80 41 13
Ruoning Yin 1.79% 56 34 19
Sarah Schmelzel 0.09% 1111 226 13
Sei Young Kim 3.93% 25 19 6
Somi Lee 1.80% 56 46 10
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.18% 556 101 13
Yan Liu 0.03% 3333 201 51
Yealimi Noh 0.18% 556 126 55

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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