Simulation Results: Honda LPGA Thailand

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.99%	50	26		10
Akie Iwai	5.21%	19	17		48
Allisen Corpuz	0.42%	238	111		10
Andrea Lee	0.61%	164	81		14
Angel Yin	0.02%	5000	86		48
April Angurasaranee	0.00%	10000	1501		23
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.46%	217	67		8
Auston Kim	0.76%	132	67		18
Ayaka Furue	2.18%	46	36		23
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000	801		65
Brooke M. Henderson	5.13%	19	23	0.80%	38	-0.8	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews	0.06%	1667	131		15
Carlota Ciganda	1.05%	95	81		63
Cassie Porter	0.01%	10000	501		35
Celine Boutier	1.54%	65	51		42
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.03%	3333	351		18
Chisato Iwai	4.54%	22	36	1.80%	2	6.975	Betfred: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danielle Kang	0.00%	10000	1001		71
Esther Henseleit	0.41%	244	126		62
Gaby Lopez	2.65%	38	41	0.20%	38	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gemma Dryburgh	0.06%	1667	181		59
Gianna Clemente	0.03%	3333	301		53
Grace Kim	0.43%	233	91		38
Gurleen Kaur	0.01%	10000	501		59
Haeran Ryu	5.12%	20	23	0.80%	10	-0.8	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hannah Green	0.48%	208	67		7
Hye-Jin Choi	5.99%	17	19	0.80%	8	-0.8	Unibet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	1.79%	56	26		3
Ina Yoon	1.06%	94	51		50
Ingrid Lindblad	0.02%	5000	276		53
Jeeno Thitikul	22.47%	4.5	4.5	0.30%	1	0.65625	Bet365: 3.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho	0.48%	208	67		46
Jenny Bae	0.11%	909	201		18
Jin Hee Im	0.58%	172	81		53
Jin Young Ko	0.33%	303	71		53
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.01%	10000	351		23
Karis Davidson	0.02%	5000	401		35
Leona Maguire	0.02%	5000	351		32
Lindy Duncan	0.43%	233	81		42
Linn Grant	1.39%	72	41		32
Lottie Woad	3.69%	27	23		15
Lucy Li	0.05%	2000	161		23
Lydia Ko	4.32%	23	17		5
Maja Stark	0.11%	909	151		23
Manon De Roey	0.10%	1000	201		42
Megan Khang	0.28%	357	67		53
Mi Hyang Lee	0.10%	1000	301		23
Minami Katsu	0.10%	1000	81		35
Miyu Yamashita	4.03%	25	17		18
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	401		72
Muni He	0.01%	10000	501		52
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.46%	68	56		5
Naruha Miyata	0.00%	10000	1251		65
Nasa Hataoka	5.91%	17	18	0.40%	18	-0.4	Unibet: 17/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nataliya Guseva	0.06%	1667	141		50
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.36%	278	101		23
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.01%	10000	501		46
Pornanong Phatlum	0.01%	10000	401		42
Prim Prachnakorn	0.00%	10000	301		65
Rin Yoshida	0.00%	10000	301		61
Rio Takeda	2.08%	48	36		31
Robyn Choi	0.02%	5000	251		65
Ruoning Yin	2.00%	50	34		15
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	201		53
Sei Young Kim	5.16%	19	15		10
Somi Lee	1.57%	64	41		4
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.24%	417	76		69
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.02%	5000	351		69
Yan Liu	0.19%	526	151		32
Yealimi Noh	0.20%	500	111		38
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1001		63
Yuri Yoshida	0.03%	3333	301		23

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.24%	45	34		62
Akie Iwai	2.95%	34	26		44
Allisen Corpuz	1.40%	71	61		6
Andrea Lee	1.57%	64	61		16
Angel Yin	0.64%	156	61		25
April Angurasaranee	0.17%	588	301		44
Ariya Jutanugarn	1.39%	72	51		6
Auston Kim	1.63%	61	51		16
Ayaka Furue	2.30%	43	41		25
Benedetta Moresco	0.32%	313	151		62
Brooke M. Henderson	2.90%	34	31		44
Brooke Matthews	0.77%	130	71		48
Carlota Ciganda	1.78%	56	51		69
Cassie Porter	0.60%	167	141		6
Celine Boutier	2.01%	50	46		25
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.70%	143	126		1
Chisato Iwai	2.86%	35	31		25
Danielle Kang	0.21%	476	226		58
Esther Henseleit	1.29%	78	71		62
Gaby Lopez	2.36%	42	41		25
Gemma Dryburgh	0.80%	125	101		3
Gianna Clemente	0.63%	159	101		25
Grace Kim	1.33%	75	67		6
Gurleen Kaur	0.49%	204	151		48
Haeran Ryu	2.98%	34	29		48
Hannah Green	1.39%	72	56		6
Hye-Jin Choi	3.15%	32	29		3
Hyo Joo Kim	2.09%	48	34		16
Ina Yoon	1.73%	58	46		6
Ingrid Lindblad	0.67%	149	101		36
Jeeno Thitikul	5.08%	20	13		6
Jennifer Kupcho	1.41%	71	51		16
Jenny Bae	1.00%	100	81		36
Jin Hee Im	1.44%	69	61		25
Jin Young Ko	1.31%	76	51		48
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.56%	179	126		6
Karis Davidson	0.69%	145	126		62
Leona Maguire	0.66%	152	126		6
Lindy Duncan	1.38%	72	61		36
Linn Grant	1.95%	51	41		16
Lottie Woad	2.57%	39	29		44
Lucy Li	0.85%	118	81		48
Lydia Ko	2.72%	37	26		6
Maja Stark	0.91%	110	101		16
Manon De Roey	0.91%	110	81		48
Megan Khang	1.15%	87	51		69
Mi Hyang Lee	0.94%	106	111		36
Minami Katsu	0.96%	104	61		36
Miyu Yamashita	2.63%	38	29		16
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.19%	526	126		58
Muni He	0.57%	175	151		48
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.86%	54	46		25
Naruha Miyata	0.22%	455	251		48
Nasa Hataoka	3.13%	32	29		1
Nataliya Guseva	0.85%	118	67		16
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.30%	77	61		25
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.65%	154	151		16
Pornanong Phatlum	0.58%	172	126		36
Prim Prachnakorn	0.15%	667	126		62
Rin Yoshida	0.43%	233	111		48
Rio Takeda	2.25%	44	34		48
Robyn Choi	0.74%	135	101		62
Ruoning Yin	2.02%	50	41		36
Saki Baba	0.62%	161	101		36
Sei Young Kim	2.93%	34	23		58
Somi Lee	1.93%	52	41		3
Stephanie Kyriacou	1.20%	83	51		25
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.59%	169	126		58
Yan Liu	1.06%	94	81		69
Yealimi Noh	1.17%	85	71		69
Yuka Saso	0.31%	323	201		62
Yuri Yoshida	0.77%	130	126		25

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Chisato Iwai	4.54%	22	36	1.80%	2	7.75	Betfred: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	5.99%	17	19	0.80%	8	-2	Unibet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Brooke M. Henderson	5.13%	19	23	0.80%	38	-2	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.