Simulation Results: Honda LPGA Thailand

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.14% 47 34 6
Akie Iwai 0.78% 128 67 2
Albane Valenzuela 1.13% 88 131 0.40% 20 -0.4 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexa Pano 0.18% 556 351 61
Allisen Corpuz 1.34% 75 76 7
Amy Yang 1.23% 81 41 11
Andrea Lee 0.36% 278 301 33
Angel Yin 2.01% 50 26 1
Anna Nordqvist 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 71 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
annabel dimmock 0.14% 714 351 70
Ariya Jutanugarn 1.65% 61 41 14
Arpichaya Yubol 0.42% 238 161 61
Auston Kim 0.17% 588 141 14
Ayaka Furue 2.96% 34 34 20
Bailey Tardy 0.17% 588 351 69
Brittany Altomare 0.04% 2500 1001 67
Brooke M. Henderson 2.21% 45 41 33
Carlota Ciganda 1.57% 64 91 0.50% 20 -0.5 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caroline Masson 0.16% 625 501 43
Celine Boutier 4.55% 22 17 28
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.22% 455 201 24
Chisato Iwai 1.28% 78 46 24
Esther Henseleit 1.17% 85 81 33
Gabriela Ruffels 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gaby Lopez 0.87% 115 101 33
Georgia Hall 0.71% 141 176 0.10% 9 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gianna Clemente 0.01% 10000 401 30
Grace Kim 0.90% 111 141 0.20% 65 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Haeran Ryu 4.36% 23 15 14
Hinako Shibuno 0.13% 769 501 54
Hye-Jin Choi 1.81% 55 41 26
Hyo Joo Kim 2.51% 40 46 0.30% 45 -0.3 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jaravee Boonchant 0.27% 370 176 45
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.30% 333 226 57
Jeeno Thitikul 14.37% 7 5.5 3
Jennifer Kupcho 1.33% 75 76 11
Jenny Shin 0.59% 169 141 43
Jin Hee Im 2.93% 34 34 20
Jin Young Ko 6.56% 15 12 45
Lauren Coughlin 2.85% 35 31 50
Leona Maguire 0.98% 102 71 33
Lilia Vu 1.44% 69 41 61
Linn Grant 3.55% 28 26 17
Linnea Strom 0.22% 455 501 72
Lucy Li 0.73% 137 141 54
Madelene Sagstrom 0.31% 323 251 59
Maja Stark 0.41% 244 131 28
Mao Saigo 1.56% 64 51 33
Mi Hyang Lee 0.63% 159 226 0.20% 45 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Miyu Sato 0.07% 1429 501 30
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.24% 417 351 4
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 2.60% 38 46 0.40% 7 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Narin An 0.67% 149 126 33
Nataliya Guseva 0.90% 111 67 61
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 17 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 1.02% 98 34 4
Peiyun Chien 0.21% 476 401 65
Pimpisa Rubrong 0.02% 5000 351 41
Rio Takeda 2.45% 41 26 9
Ruixin Liu 0.39% 256 176 30
Ruoning Yin 2.76% 36 15 26
Ryann O'Toole 0.48% 208 226 33
Sarah Schmelzel 1.00% 100 176 0.40% 60 -0.4 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sei Young Kim 2.16% 46 29 54
Somi Lee 1.05% 95 67 41
Sophia Popov 0.07% 1429 801 68
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.51% 196 151 45
Trichat Cheenglab 0.12% 833 351 57
Wichanee Meechai 0.21% 476 451 50
Yealimi Noh 4.01% 25 29 0.60% 11 -0.6 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuka Saso 0.43% 233 151 17
Yuna Nishimura 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 50 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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