Simulation Results: ShopRite LPGA Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adela Cernousek	0.25%	400	301		94
Akie Iwai	3.74%	27	17		29
Alana Uriell	0.29%	345	501	0.10%	87	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alena Sharp	0.00%	10000	601		140
Alexa Pano	0.84%	119	131	0.10%	58	-0.1	Betway: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aline Krauter	0.49%	204	176		58
Amanda Doherty	0.95%	105	111		14
Amelia Lewis	0.00%	10000	1251		136
Ana Belac	0.22%	455	276		14
Anna Nordqvist	1.17%	85	131	0.40%	29	-0.4	Betway: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabelle Pancake-Webb	0.25%	400	111		21
Anne Chen	0.19%	526	201		76
Annie Park	0.00%	10000	2001		116
Arpichaya Yubol	1.61%	62	56		2
Ashleigh Buhai	0.58%	172	161		40
Austin Ernst	0.13%	769	451		51
Azahara Munoz	0.53%	189	176		76
Benedetta Moresco	0.16%	625	351		128
Bianca Pagdanganan	0.37%	270	176		58
Briana Chacon	0.04%	2500	601		9
Brianna Do	0.37%	270	201		87
Brittany Lincicome	0.11%	909	751		116
Bronte Law	0.07%	1429	226		132
Brooke Biermann	0.03%	3333	501		72
Brooke M. Henderson	3.07%	33	34	0.10%	40	-0.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews	0.99%	101	141	0.30%	21	-0.3	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caley McGinty	0.15%	667	91		51
Camille Boyd	0.20%	500	501		116
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.89%	112	86		51
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.25%	400	301		94
Carolina Melgrati	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	64	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cassie Porter	1.51%	66	46		9
Celine Borge	0.32%	313	276		128
Celine Boutier	4.36%	23	16		1
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	9	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hull	4.89%	20	13		105
Chella Choi	1.17%	85	111	0.30%	51	-0.3	Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chiara Tamburlini	0.68%	147	86		40
Chisato Iwai	2.19%	46	29		4
Christina Kim	0.00%	10000	5001		132
Cocona Sakurai	0.24%	417	501		76
Dani Holmqvist	0.06%	1667	1251		105
Danielle Kang	0.13%	769	401		67
Dewi Weber	0.77%	130	161	0.10%	40	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dongeun Lee	0.98%	102	101		14
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.55%	182	131		105
Emma McMyler	0.07%	1429	351		40
Erika Hara	3.14%	32	19		75
Frida Kinhult	0.79%	127	101		76
Gabriela Ruffels	0.81%	123	141	0.10%	68	-0.1	Spreadex: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gemma Dryburgh	0.60%	167	301	0.30%	68	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gianna Clemente	0.16%	625	201		29
Gigi Stoll	0.11%	909	501		29
Gina Kim	0.62%	161	126		125
Hailee Cooper	0.08%	1250	351		139
Heather Bowie Young	0.01%	10000	1501		137
Hinako Shibuno	0.44%	227	301	0.10%	116	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hira Naveed	0.08%	1250	501		116
Hye-Jin Choi	5.07%	20	12		140
In Gee Chun	1.40%	71	67		29
Isabella Fierro	0.40%	250	101		14
Isi Gabsa	0.28%	357	301		21
Jennifer Chang	0.06%	1667	501		21
Jennifer Kupcho	4.46%	22	15		125
Jennifer Song	0.04%	2500	1251		87
Jenny Shin	2.97%	34	29
Jeongeun Lee5	0.54%	185	201		68
Jeongeun Lee6	0.69%	145	111		72
Jessica Porvasnik	0.64%	156	126		40
Jing Yan	1.18%	85	71		29
Jiwon Jeon	0.38%	263	226		8
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	1.88%	53	56	0.10%	94	-0.1	Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juniper Jang	0.01%	10000			58
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.47%	213	201		105
Katherine Perry-Hamski	0.00%	10000	2001		105
Kelly Tan	0.01%	10000	501		94
Kim Kaufman	0.09%	1111	501		51
Kumkang Park	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	76	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laetitia Beck	0.32%	313	401	0.10%	14	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laney Frye	0.33%	303	226		40
Lauren Tenuta	0.00%	10000			40
Lauren Walsh	0.13%	769	501		3
Leah John	0.01%	10000	501		116
Leona Maguire	1.31%	76	71		9
Lilia Vu	0.44%	227	201		94
Linn Grant	2.49%	40	29		29
Linnea Strom	0.36%	278	141		116
Lizette Salas	0.21%	476	301		14
Madison Young	0.27%	370	351		94
Manon De Roey	1.36%	74	91	0.30%	76	-0.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maria Fassi	0.18%	556	601		105
Maria McBride	0.00%	10000	1501		105
Maria Torres	0.00%	10000	2001		130
Mariel Galdiano	0.39%	256	176		94
Mary Liu	0.77%	130	151	0.10%	29	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matilda Castren	0.00%	10000	1501		138
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.97%	103	141	0.30%	76	-0.3	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Meaghan Francella	0.01%	10000	5001		132
Megan Gormley	0.00%	10000	1001		105
Melanie Green	2.06%	49	36		51
Mia Hammond	0.15%	667	226		116
Michelle Zhang	0.26%	385	601	0.10%	130	-0.1	Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes	1.00%	100	46		72
Mina Kreiter	0.18%	556	451		116
Minji Kang	1.00%	100	67		76
Morgane Metraux	0.25%	400	141		105
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.12%	833	501		87
Nastasia Nadaud	0.81%	123	111		21
Natalie Gulbis	0.00%	10000	2501		105
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.56%	179	251	0.20%	21	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicole Broch Estrup	0.19%	526	301		14
Olivia Cowan	0.66%	152	86		29
Paula Reto	0.38%	263	401	0.10%	64	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.65%	154	201	0.20%	135	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien	1.09%	92	131	0.30%	76	-0.3	Betway: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perrine Delacour	1.33%	75	91	0.20%	40	-0.2	Betway: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Polly Mack	0.27%	370	201		4
Pornanong Phatlum	1.33%	75	126	0.50%	64	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rachel Kuehn	0.27%	370	141		29
Riley Smyth	0.02%	5000	1001		94
Robyn Choi	1.42%	70	61		51
Saki Baba	0.51%	196	176		87
Samantha Wagner	0.15%	667	301		94
Sarah Kemp	0.03%	3333	301		105
Savannah Grewal	0.08%	1250	601		29
Sofia Garcia	0.16%	625	351		40
Somi Lee	2.40%	42	23		4
Soo Bin Joo	1.15%	87	161	0.50%	4	4.625	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sophia Schubert	0.52%	192	201		94
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.09%	1111	501		76
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.13%	769	351		58
Stephanie Meadow	0.11%	909	601		21
Su Oh	0.00%	10000	1251		94
Sung Hyun Park	0.36%	278	176		58
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.44%	227	201		21
Tiffany Chan	0.01%	10000	1251		125
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.98%	102	81		87
Wichanee Meechai	0.11%	909	601		87
Xiaowen Yin	0.22%	455	301		140
Yahui Zhang	0.12%	833	401		76
Yana Wilson	0.78%	128	91		40
Yu Liu	1.65%	61	51		140
Yuna Nishimura	0.57%	175	251	0.20%	68	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuri Yoshida	1.28%	78	161	0.70%	9	-0.7	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adela Cernousek	0.35%	286	126		114
Akie Iwai	2.74%	36	34		31
Alana Uriell	0.59%	169	251	0.20%	114	-0.2	William Hill: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Alena Sharp	0.03%	3333	251		142
Alexa Pano	0.72%	139	101		67
Aline Krauter	0.79%	127	101		31
Amanda Doherty	1.21%	83	81		90
Amelia Lewis	0.01%	10000	401		139
Ana Belac	0.56%	179	151		8
Anna Nordqvist	1.44%	69	91	0.30%	17	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Annabelle Pancake-Webb	0.45%	222	81		13
Anne Chen	0.40%	250	126		90
Annie Park	0.03%	3333	401		114
Arpichaya Yubol	1.61%	62	61		3
Ashleigh Buhai	0.89%	112	111		8
Austin Ernst	0.39%	256	201		13
Azahara Munoz	0.85%	118	111		90
Benedetta Moresco	0.25%	400	176		104
Bianca Pagdanganan	0.64%	156	111		13
Briana Chacon	0.20%	500	251		3
Brianna Do	0.46%	217	126		67
Brittany Lincicome	0.32%	313	251		130
Bronte Law	0.25%	400	126		114
Brooke Biermann	0.09%	1111	251		67
Brooke M. Henderson	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	31	-0.1	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brooke Matthews	1.23%	81	91	0.10%	114	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caley McGinty	0.37%	270	81		17
Camille Boyd	0.32%	313	201		67
Carla Tejedo Mulet	1.23%	81	81		31
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.36%	278	161		67
Carolina Melgrati	0.81%	123	126		90
Cassie Porter	1.59%	63	51		17
Celine Borge	0.33%	303	126		136
Celine Boutier	2.33%	43	31		6
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.80%	125	126		17
Charley Hull	2.53%	40	23		104
Chella Choi	0.96%	104	81		90
Chiara Tamburlini	0.83%	120	81		104
Chisato Iwai	2.07%	48	41		31
Christina Kim	0.03%	3333	401		130
Cocona Sakurai	0.34%	294	201		67
Dani Holmqvist	0.17%	588	401		90
Danielle Kang	0.39%	256	251		31
Dewi Weber	0.68%	147	111		17
Dongeun Lee	1.24%	81	81		50
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.52%	192	91		114
Emma McMyler	0.31%	323	176		67
Erika Hara	2.53%	40	36		50
Frida Kinhult	0.71%	141	91		67
Gabriela Ruffels	0.68%	147	91		114
Gemma Dryburgh	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	67	-0.2	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Gianna Clemente	0.43%	233	126		90
Gigi Stoll	0.34%	294	201		17
Gina Kim	0.85%	118	101		31
Hailee Cooper	0.18%	556	176		139
Heather Bowie Young	0.05%	2000	501		141
Hinako Shibuno	0.73%	137	161	0.10%	114	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hira Naveed	0.14%	714	201		104
Hye-Jin Choi	3.48%	29	21		8
In Gee Chun	1.05%	95	67		50
Isabella Fierro	0.78%	128	101		17
Isi Gabsa	0.59%	169	151		17
Jennifer Chang	0.16%	625	251		90
Jennifer Kupcho	2.27%	44	29		104
Jennifer Song	0.18%	556	401		50
Jenny Shin	1.68%	60	41
Jeongeun Lee5	0.56%	179	111		67
Jeongeun Lee6	0.65%	154	91		31
Jessica Porvasnik	0.96%	104	101		67
Jing Yan	0.92%	109	71		31
Jiwon Jeon	0.76%	132	126		17
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	1.32%	76	67		31
Juniper Jang	0.08%	1250			13
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.51%	196	111		90
Katherine Perry-Hamski	0.06%	1667	401		50
Kelly Tan	0.06%	1667	201		114
Kim Kaufman	0.17%	588	201		50
Kumkang Park	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	90	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laetitia Beck	0.63%	159	201	0.10%	1	12.5	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Laney Frye	0.64%	156	126		67
Lauren Tenuta	0.00%	10000	201		50
Lauren Walsh	0.34%	294	201		31
Leah John	0.06%	1667	201		134
Leona Maguire	0.97%	103	71		31
Lilia Vu	0.46%	217	111		31
Linn Grant	2.22%	45	41		67
Linnea Strom	0.46%	217	101		134
Lizette Salas	0.34%	294	126		50
Madison Young	0.34%	294	161		17
Manon De Roey	0.96%	104	76		90
Maria Fassi	0.27%	370	251		67
Maria McBride	0.01%	10000	401		114
Maria Torres	0.02%	5000	401		114
Mariel Galdiano	0.40%	250	111		31
Mary Liu	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	50	-0.1	William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Matilda Castren	0.01%	10000	401		143
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.81%	123	91		50
Meaghan Francella	0.05%	2000	2501		136
Megan Gormley	0.01%	10000	161		67
Melanie Green	1.83%	55	51		67
Mia Hammond	0.47%	213	126		114
Michelle Zhang	0.33%	303	126		104
Mimi Rhodes	0.81%	123	56		90
Mina Kreiter	0.28%	357	201		130
Minji Kang	0.77%	130	71		130
Morgane Metraux	0.34%	294	101		31
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.22%	455	251		50
Nastasia Nadaud	1.06%	94	81		104
Natalie Gulbis	0.03%	3333	501		104
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.81%	123	126		50
Nicole Broch Estrup	0.30%	333	151		2
Olivia Cowan	0.65%	154	81		17
Paula Reto	0.44%	227	201		114
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.99%	101	111	0.10%	114	-0.1	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	17	-0.2	William Hill: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Perrine Delacour	1.03%	97	71		67
Polly Mack	0.36%	278	126		3
Pornanong Phatlum	0.99%	101	91		67
Rachel Kuehn	0.50%	200	101		31
Riley Smyth	0.11%	909	351		104
Robyn Choi	1.05%	95	67		50
Saki Baba	0.80%	125	101		50
Samantha Wagner	0.41%	244	161		31
Sarah Kemp	0.19%	526	151		114
Savannah Grewal	0.25%	400	251		90
Sofia Garcia	0.47%	213	151		50
Somi Lee	2.14%	47	41		17
Soo Bin Joo	1.33%	75	101	0.30%	6	-0.3	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sophia Schubert	0.58%	172	126		104
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.32%	313	251		114
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.37%	270	151		31
Stephanie Meadow	0.28%	357	251		50
Su Oh	0.03%	3333	401		50
Sung Hyun Park	0.39%	256	111		17
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.51%	196	126		8
Tiffany Chan	0.05%	2000	401		136
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.85%	118	81		67
Wichanee Meechai	0.24%	417	251		67
Xiaowen Yin	0.49%	204	151		67
Yahui Zhang	0.22%	455	176		31
Yana Wilson	0.69%	145	71		67
Yu Liu	1.68%	60	51		67
Yuna Nishimura	0.57%	175	126		90
Yuri Yoshida	0.94%	106	101		8

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Yuri Yoshida	1.28%	78	161	0.70%	9	-2	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Pornanong Phatlum	1.33%	75	126	0.50%	64	-2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Soo Bin Joo	1.15%	87	161	0.50%	4	18.5	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Anna Nordqvist	1.44%	69	91	0.30%	17	-1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Soo Bin Joo	1.33%	75	101	0.30%	6	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Peiyun Chien	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	17	-1	William Hill: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Gemma Dryburgh	0.88%	114	151	0.20%	67	-1	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Alana Uriell	0.59%	169	251	0.20%	114	-1	William Hill: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Brooke M. Henderson	2.54%	39	41	0.10%	31	-1	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.