Simulation Results: LPGA Shanghai

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.96% 34 26 10
Aditi Ashok 0.41% 244 151 57
Albane Valenzuela 0.21% 476 226 65
Allisen Corpuz 1.89% 53 81 0.70% 47 -0.7 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Yin 2.14% 47 29 80
Ariya Jutanugarn 2.16% 46 26 40
Arpichaya Yubol 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 11 -0.1 Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashleigh Buhai 0.38% 263 181 40
Auston Kim 1.19% 84 111 0.30% 11 -0.3 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benedetta Moresco 0.36% 278 251 72
Brooke Matthews 1.50% 67 91 0.40% 62 -0.4 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlota Ciganda 1.38% 72 51 15
Cassie Porter 0.45% 222 201 32
Celine Borge 0.38% 263 226 71
Chih Yen Chang 0.00% 10000 1001 76
Danielle Kang 0.10% 1000 351 78
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.65% 154 151 40
Esther Henseleit 1.54% 65 51 36
Gabriela Ruffels 1.23% 81 81 65
Gaby Lopez 1.24% 81 67 18
Gemma Dryburgh 0.49% 204 276 0.10% 47 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur 0.22% 455 141 40
Haeji Kang 0.07% 1429 1001 60
Hira Naveed 0.09% 1111 501 26
Hye-Jin Choi 4.37% 23 17 11
Ilhee Lee 0.10% 1000 751 82
Ina Yoon 1.11% 90 101 0.10% 26 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeeno Thitikul 10.23% 9.8 6.5 1
Jennifer Kupcho 2.30% 43 34 22
Jenny Bae 0.72% 139 121 4
Jenny Shin 1.07% 93 141 0.40% 7 -0.4 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Hee Im 2.86% 35 34 22
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.42% 238 126 50
Karis Davidson 0.22% 455 351 69
Kristen Gillman 0.74% 135 176 0.20% 40 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Leona Maguire 0.47% 213 126 54
Lilia Vu 0.22% 455 126 50
Lindy Duncan 1.24% 81 126 0.40% 7 -0.4 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li 0.81% 123 141 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manon De Roey 0.99% 101 101 36
Mary Liu 0.46% 217 201 47
Menghan Li 0.02% 5000 401 40
Minami Katsu 1.53% 65 51 2
Minjee Lee 8.60% 12 9.5 3
Miranda Wang 0.83% 120 67 65
Miyu Yamashita 5.30% 19 14 4
Muni He 0.11% 909 401 65
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.94% 52 51 15
Narin An 0.82% 122 141 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka 5.33% 19 14 18
Nataliya Guseva 1.17% 85 67 60
Pajaree Anannarukarn 1.35% 74 91 0.30% 62 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 1.23% 81 67 50
Paula Reto 0.27% 370 351 32
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.27% 370 226 22
Rio Takeda 3.26% 31 21 40
Robyn Choi 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 32 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruixin Liu 0.74% 135 91 26
Runzhi Pang 0.00% 10000 1001 74
Ruoning Yin 2.64% 38 23 26
Saki Baba 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 32 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sarah Schmelzel 1.14% 88 111 0.20% 18 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sei Young Kim 4.94% 20 15 15
Sherman Santiwiwattanaphong 0.01% 10000 1501 76
Shiyuan Zhou 0.00% 10000 251 11
Shuying Li 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 62 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Somi Lee 2.69% 37 29 4
Stephanie Kyriacou 1.11% 90 81 22
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.37% 270 201 54
Weiwei Zhang 0.23% 435 301 57
Xiaowen Yin 0.35% 286 226 18
Yahui Zhang 0.42% 238 401 0.20% 81 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yan Liu 0.58% 172 161 26
Yijia Ren 0.00% 10000 501 57
Ying Xu 0.01% 10000 226 7
Yu Liu 0.42% 238 151 36
Yu Yuan Jiang 0.00% 10000 751 75
Yuai Ji 0.09% 1111 401 50
Yujie Liu 0.02% 5000 551 69
Yuri Yoshida 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 26 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zining An 0.02% 5000 1001 78
Zixuan Wang 0.00% 10000 1001 72

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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