Simulation Results: Riviera Maya Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adela Cernousek 0.04% 2500 1001 120
Aditi Ashok 1.11% 90 111 0.20% 9 -0.2 Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akie Iwai 2.75% 36 21 16
Albane Valenzuela 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 56 -0.1 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alena Sharp 0.22% 455 276 81
Alexa Pano 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 126 -0.1 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexandra Forsterling 0.16% 625 751 97
Aline Krauter 0.33% 303 226 21
Amanda Doherty 0.41% 244 251 65
Amelia Lewis 0.01% 10000 1501 135
Ana Belac 0.34% 294 326 137
Andrea Ostos Mendoza 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Anna Nordqvist 0.87% 115 141 0.20% 56 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Annie Park 0.09% 1111 601
Arpichaya Yubol 1.06% 94 126 0.30% 9 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashley Lau 0.21% 476 141 32
Azahara Munoz 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 81 -0.2 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bailey Tardy 0.30% 333 226 67
Benedetta Moresco 0.60% 167 151 16
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.23% 435 276 26
Brianna Do 0.02% 5000 1251 9
Brittany Altomare 0.06% 1667 1001 137
Brittany Lincicome 0.03% 3333 751 32
Bronte Law 0.25% 400 126 91
Brooke Matthews 0.35% 286 201 52
Caley McGinty 0.03% 3333 1001 137
Carlota Ciganda 4.81% 21 17 9
Carolina Rotzinger 0.00% 10000 2001 135
Caroline Inglis 0.52% 192 501 0.30% 21 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caroline Masson 0.11% 909 276 26
Cassie Porter 0.38% 263 131 67
Celine Borge 0.28% 357 751 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charley Hull 3.92% 26 13 32
Cheyenne Knight 0.63% 159 251 0.20% 113 -0.2 Unibet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chisato Iwai 3.00% 33 19 1
Christina Kim 0.03% 3333 1251 120
Cindy LaCrosse 0.00% 10000 1501 134
Clarisa Temelo 0.05% 2000 601 132
Dani Holmqvist 0.07% 1429 1501 97
Daniela Darquea 0.33% 303 376 0.10% 67 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daniela Iacobelli 0.03% 3333 1001 107
Danielle Kang 0.08% 1250 1001 107
Dewi Weber 0.61% 164 251 0.20% 36 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dottie Ardina 0.39% 256 251 67
Elizabeth Szokol 1.21% 83 101 0.20% 60 -0.2 Skybet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.95% 105 111 81
Erica Shepherd 0.04% 2500 133
Eun-Hee Ji 0.07% 1429 1001 67
Fatima Fernandez Cano 0.06% 1667 351 97
Fernanda Lira 0.02% 5000 1001 97
Frida Kinhult 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 97 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gabriela Ruffels 0.92% 109 81 21
Gaby Lopez 2.58% 39 26 97
Gemma Dryburgh 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 42 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gigi Stoll 0.18% 556 501 91
Gurleen Kaur 0.10% 1000 601 91
Haeji Kang 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 3 15.575 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Heather Lin 0.03% 3333 1001 107
Hee Young Park 0.13% 769 501 137
Hira Naveed 0.78% 128 91 67
Hye-Jin Choi 4.59% 22 13 4
Hyo Joon Jang 0.20% 500 501 124
In Gee Chun 1.49% 67 91 0.40% 107 -0.4 Unibet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon 3.33% 30 26 67
Isabella Fierro 0.04% 2500 1001 113
Jaravee Boonchant 0.19% 526 601 81
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 36 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jennifer Chang 0.10% 1000 601 113
Jennifer Song 0.01% 10000 2001
Jenny Bae 0.69% 145 151 2
Jenny Coleman 0.02% 5000 1001 97
Jenny Shin 1.83% 55 81 0.60% 4 2.46 Unibet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee5 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 16 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee6 0.42% 238 301 0.10% 67 -0.1 BetVictor: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Porvasnik 0.11% 909 601 36
Jing Yan 0.51% 196 201 45
Jiwon Jeon 0.59% 169 251 0.20% 49 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.49% 204 401 0.20% 32 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.46% 217 101 45
Kaitlyn Papp Budde 0.24% 417 176 36
Karis Davidson 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 16 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.13% 769 751 118
Kelly Tan 0.03% 3333 1251 118
Kiira Riihijarvi 0.02% 5000 1001 120
Kristen Gillman 2.15% 47 56 0.40% 9 -0.4 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lakareber Abe 0.02% 5000 1501 113
Lauren Hartlage 0.16% 625 601 63
Lauren Morris 0.46% 217 501 0.30% 67 -0.3 10Bet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Leona Maguire 1.23% 81 81 81
Lindsey McCurdy Peek 0.11% 909 351 107
Lindy Duncan 3.80% 26 23 21
Linn Grant 1.89% 53 46 4
Liqi Zeng 0.33% 303 176 81
Maddie Szeryk 0.05% 2000 1001 60
Madison Young 0.11% 909 501 97
Malia Nam 0.08% 1250 1501 65
Manon De Roey 2.10% 48 41 107
Maria Balcazar 0.00% 10000 1501 120
Maria Fassi 0.05% 2000 1001 56
Maria Torres 0.01% 10000 1501 130
Mariel Galdiano 0.09% 1111 751 36
Mary Liu 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 56 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.14% 714 1501 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Min Lee 0.08% 1250 601 42
Mina Kreiter 0.07% 1429 751 49
Minami Katsu 1.76% 57 34 9
Miranda Wang 1.07% 93 67 26
Morgane Metraux 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 52 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Muni He 0.30% 333 201 21
Natalie Gulbis 0.00% 10000 2001 137
Nataliya Guseva 1.55% 65 46 26
Natthakritta Vongtaveelap 0.11% 909 1001 97
Olivia Cowan 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 26 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paula Reto 0.73% 137 201 0.20% 81 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 16 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pernilla Lindberg 0.12% 833 351 49
Polly Mack 0.36% 278 251 97
Pornanong Phatlum 0.27% 370 451 45
Rio Takeda 5.68% 18 9 91
Robyn Choi 0.72% 139 161 0.10% 9 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ruixin Liu 0.79% 127 161 0.20% 81 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryann O'Toole 0.81% 123 141 0.10% 45 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sarah Jane Smith 0.02% 5000 1251 126
Sarah Kemp 0.31% 323 751 0.20% 52 -0.2 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sarah White 0.06% 1667 81
Savannah Grewal 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 126 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sei Young Kim 2.01% 50 26 67
Sofia Garcia 0.16% 625 401 113
Somi Lee 4.83% 21 19 4
Soo Bin Joo 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 36 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sophia Popov 0.46% 217 131 130
Su Oh 0.01% 10000 1001 126
Sung Hyun Park 0.18% 556 351 91
Tiffany Chan 0.05% 2000 1001 81
Wei-Ling Hsu 1.31% 76 71 52
Weiwei Zhang 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 4 0.84 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wichanee Meechai 0.46% 217 501 0.30% 91 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xiaowen Yin 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 10Bet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yahui Zhang 1.66% 60 61 26
Yan Liu 1.64% 61 36 67
Yani Tseng 0.00% 10000 1501 67
Yu Liu 0.76% 132 276 0.40% 67 -0.4 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yue Ren 0.05% 2000 1501 60
Yuri Yoshida 1.25% 80 67 63

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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