Simulation Results: Riviera aya Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adela Cernousek	0.04%	2500	601		46
Akie Iwai	6.28%	16	9		20
Alana Uriell	0.01%	10000	1501		52
Albane Valenzuela	0.52%	192	151		87
Alejandra Llaneza	0.00%	10000	1001		93
Alena Sharp	0.01%	10000	1001		123
Alexa Pano	0.77%	130	251	0.40%	35	-0.4	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aline Krauter	0.16%	625	351		20
Amanda Doherty	0.14%	714	501		20
Amelia Lewis	0.00%	10000	1001
Ana Belac	0.17%	588	351		41
Ana Jimenez	0.00%	10000			103
Andrea Ostos Mendoza	0.00%	10000	1001		111
Anne Chen	0.14%	714	251		98
Arpichaya Yubol	0.75%	133	126		2
Azahara Munoz	0.48%	208	176		27
Bailey Tardy	0.28%	357	401		81
Benedetta Moresco	0.14%	714	351		61
Bianca Pagdanganan	0.75%	133	251	0.40%	81	-0.4	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Briana Chacon	0.05%	2000	301		98
Brianna Do	0.17%	588	501		4
Brooke Matthews	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	35	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caley McGinty	0.19%	526	101		87
Camille Boyd	0.23%	435	301		67
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.77%	130	101		41
Carlota Ciganda	3.13%	32	26		6
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.38%	263	201		76
Carolina Melgrati	0.09%	1111	601		9
Carolina Rotzinger	0.00%	10000			121
Celine Borge	0.36%	278	251		71
Celine Herbin	0.29%	345	126		41
Chella Choi	0.52%	192	151		27
Chiara Tamburlini	1.26%	79	67		115
Chisato Iwai	4.69%	21	13		74
Christina Kim	0.01%	10000	1251		116
Clarisa Temelo	0.00%	10000	251		105
Cocona Sakurai	0.17%	588	501		41
Dani Holmqvist	0.02%	5000	1251		93
Daniela Darquea	0.13%	769	1001		68
Danielle Kang	0.01%	10000	1001		27
Dewi Weber	0.79%	127	126		59
Dongeun Lee	1.56%	64	51		81
Emma McMyler	0.02%	5000	501		68
Erika Hara	2.19%	46	46		9
Frida Kinhult	0.47%	213	151		93
Gabriela Ruffels	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	27	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gaby Lopez	3.91%	26	21		20
Gigi Stoll	0.12%	833	601		52
Gina Kim	0.31%	323	201		13
Haeji Kang	0.03%	3333	1001		81
Hailee Cooper	0.12%	833	501		68
Heather Bowie Young	0.00%	10000	1501		105
Hinako Shibuno	0.27%	370	401		59
Hira Naveed	0.06%	1667	501		71
Isabella Fierro	0.35%	286	101		27
Isi Gabsa	0.12%	833	501		13
Jaravee Boonchant	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	98	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.02%	98	101		61
Jennifer Song	0.01%	10000	1251		87
Jeongeun Lee5	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	93	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee6	0.75%	133	126		71
Jessica Porvasnik	1.11%	90	111	0.20%	46	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Hee Im	4.28%	23	19		13
Jing Yan	2.00%	50	46		76
Jiwon Jeon	0.74%	135	201	0.20%	27	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	1.13%	88	151	0.50%	6	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juniper Jang	0.00%	10000			76
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.65%	154	201	0.20%	105	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Katherine Perry-Hamski	0.00%	10000	1251		75
Laetitia Beck	0.09%	1111	501		27
Laney Frye	0.47%	213	301	0.10%	46	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lauren Hartlage	0.08%	1250	501		98
Lauren Walsh	0.13%	769	301		61
Leah John	0.01%	10000	501		93
Linn Grant	2.64%	38	46	0.50%	13	-0.5	BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linnea Strom	0.34%	294	201		35
Lizette Salas	0.07%	1429	501		35
Lucy Li	1.58%	63	61		20
Madison Young	0.27%	370	201		56
Maria Balcazar	0.00%	10000			105
Maria Fassi	0.07%	1429	501		87
Maria Marin	0.26%	385	41		5
Maria Torres	0.00%	10000	1251		116
Mariel Galdiano	0.30%	333	151		61
Matilda Castren	0.00%	10000	1001		121
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.30%	333	601	0.10%	13	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Melanie Green	1.92%	52	61	0.30%	9	-0.3	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michelle Zhang	0.05%	2000	501		35
Min Lee	0.05%	2000	601		111
Mina Kreiter	0.03%	3333	751		46
Minami Katsu	3.97%	25	17		13
Minji Kang	0.36%	278	176		9
Morgane Metraux	0.29%	345	111		87
Nastasia Nadaud	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	35	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Natalie Gulbis	0.00%	10000	2501		111
Nataliya Guseva	0.77%	130	126		13
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.47%	213	151		46
Nelly Korda	19.36%	5.2	3		1
Olivia Cowan	0.62%	161	67		27
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.56%	64	67	0.10%	41	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paula Reto	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	81	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien	1.31%	76	126	0.50%	56	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perrine Delacour	1.07%	93	101	0.10%			Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Polly Mack	0.16%	625	351		116
Riley Smyth	0.06%	1667	501		104
Robyn Choi	1.11%	90	101	0.10%	52	-0.1	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sarah Kemp	0.24%	417	101		105
Savannah Grewal	0.06%	1667	751		46
Sofia Garcia	0.04%	2500	601		20
Soo Bin Joo	0.65%	154	151		8
Sophia Schubert	0.65%	154	126		52
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.05%	2000	501		98
Stephanie Meadow	0.08%	1250	501		87
Su Oh	0.00%	10000			119
Sung Hyun Park	0.26%	385	201		105
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.87%	115	181	0.30%	76	-0.3	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiffany Chan	0.02%	5000	1251		111
Weiwei Zhang	1.11%	90	101	0.10%	56	-0.1	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xiaowen Yin	0.03%	3333	351		81
Yahui Zhang	0.10%	1000	301		65
Youmin Hwang	3.07%	33	23		20
Yu Liu	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	3	1.075	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuka Saso	0.17%	588	501		119
Yuna Nishimura	0.91%	110	151	0.20%	65	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuri Yoshida	1.10%	91	111	0.20%	76	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adela Cernousek	0.32%	313	201		85
Akie Iwai	3.16%	32	21		43
Alana Uriell	0.15%	667	351		71
Albane Valenzuela	1.00%	100	101		97
Alejandra Llaneza	0.04%	2500	351		60
Alena Sharp	0.07%	1429	351		120
Alexa Pano	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	71	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aline Krauter	0.39%	256	141		43
Amanda Doherty	0.35%	286	251		27
Amelia Lewis	0.02%	5000	351
Ana Belac	0.41%	244	126		71
Ana Jimenez	0.00%	10000	251		43
Andrea Ostos Mendoza	0.04%	2500	351		113
Anne Chen	0.34%	294	141		85
Arpichaya Yubol	0.86%	116	81		17
Azahara Munoz	0.71%	141	101		43
Bailey Tardy	0.53%	189	151		60
Benedetta Moresco	0.50%	200	151		27
Bianca Pagdanganan	1.24%	81	126	0.40%	60	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Briana Chacon	0.28%	357	151		120
Brianna Do	0.46%	217	151		1
Brooke Matthews	1.25%	80	101	0.30%	17	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caley McGinty	0.56%	179	81		97
Camille Boyd	0.65%	154	151		71
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.87%	115	81		27
Carlota Ciganda	2.57%	39	34		3
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.82%	122	111		85
Carolina Melgrati	0.43%	233	251		10
Carolina Rotzinger	0.00%	10000	226		120
Celine Borge	0.79%	127	126		43
Celine Herbin	0.70%	143	81		71
Chella Choi	0.75%	133	101		17
Chiara Tamburlini	1.23%	81	67		60
Chisato Iwai	3.37%	30	23		85
Christina Kim	0.13%	769	401		97
Clarisa Temelo	0.09%	1111	151		97
Cocona Sakurai	0.51%	196	201		4
Dani Holmqvist	0.16%	625	351		27
Daniela Darquea	0.35%	286	201		85
Danielle Kang	0.21%	476	351		17
Dewi Weber	0.90%	111	81		85
Dongeun Lee	1.35%	74	56		71
Emma McMyler	0.23%	435	176		43
Erika Hara	1.62%	62	51		4
Frida Kinhult	0.99%	101	91		71
Gabriela Ruffels	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	17	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gaby Lopez	2.39%	42	34		4
Gigi Stoll	0.33%	303	201		85
Gina Kim	0.50%	200	111		71
Haeji Kang	0.20%	500	351		60
Hailee Cooper	0.30%	333	176		43
Heather Bowie Young	0.02%	5000	401		104
Hinako Shibuno	0.52%	192	151		97
Hira Naveed	0.34%	294	176		71
Isabella Fierro	0.79%	127	81		104
Isi Gabsa	0.31%	323	201		43
Jaravee Boonchant	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	104	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	27	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Song	0.14%	714	351		27
Jeongeun Lee5	1.03%	97	91		71
Jeongeun Lee6	0.91%	110	81		71
Jessica Porvasnik	1.52%	66	71	0.10%	43	-0.1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Hee Im	2.47%	40	31		17
Jing Yan	1.57%	64	51		104
Jiwon Jeon	0.81%	123	121		43
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	27	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juniper Jang	0.08%	1250			60
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.83%	120	111		113
Katherine Perry-Hamski	0.01%	10000	301		17
Laetitia Beck	0.40%	250	201		27
Laney Frye	0.95%	105	126	0.20%	27	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lauren Hartlage	0.22%	455	176		109
Lauren Walsh	0.28%	357	151		43
Leah John	0.09%	1111	201		71
Linn Grant	2.34%	43	46	0.20%	27	-0.2	VirginBet: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linnea Strom	0.78%	128	111		43
Lizette Salas	0.30%	333	251		10
Lucy Li	1.33%	75	56		43
Madison Young	0.67%	149	111		60
Maria Balcazar	0.02%	5000	226		113
Maria Fassi	0.23%	435	176		85
Maria Marin	0.67%	149	46		27
Maria Torres	0.06%	1667	351		123
Mariel Galdiano	0.73%	137	91		60
Matilda Castren	0.01%	10000	351		118
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	27	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Melanie Green	1.96%	51	51		1
Michelle Zhang	0.26%	385	201		43
Min Lee	0.26%	385	201		109
Mina Kreiter	0.30%	333	226		17
Minami Katsu	2.28%	44	31		10
Minji Kang	0.63%	159	101		71
Morgane Metraux	0.76%	132	81		71
Nastasia Nadaud	1.14%	88	76		27
Natalie Gulbis	0.02%	5000	401		118
Nataliya Guseva	1.18%	85	81		10
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.66%	152	101		10
Nelly Korda	6.69%	15	10.5		4
Olivia Cowan	1.06%	94	56		27
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.37%	73	67		60
Paula Reto	0.78%	128	201	0.30%	43	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien	1.31%	76	81	0.10%	27	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perrine Delacour	1.34%	75	67
Polly Mack	0.37%	270	151		109
Riley Smyth	0.32%	313	176		85
Robyn Choi	1.11%	90	81		10
Sarah Kemp	0.63%	159	81		85
Savannah Grewal	0.33%	303	226		97
Sofia Garcia	0.28%	357	201		17
Soo Bin Joo	1.12%	89	91		4
Sophia Schubert	1.09%	92	81		17
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.30%	333	176		113
Stephanie Meadow	0.29%	345	201		85
Su Oh	0.03%	3333	251		117
Sung Hyun Park	0.49%	204	111		108
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.97%	103	91		4
Tiffany Chan	0.18%	556	351		109
Weiwei Zhang	1.14%	88	76		10
Xiaowen Yin	0.19%	526	141		97
Yahui Zhang	0.28%	357	151		60
Youmin Hwang	2.00%	50	34		60
Yu Liu	1.50%	67	56		43
Yuka Saso	0.39%	256	151		85
Yuna Nishimura	1.37%	73	101	0.40%	27	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuri Yoshida	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	43	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Linn Grant	2.64%	38	46	0.50%	13	-2	BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Peiyun Chien	1.31%	76	126	0.50%	56	-2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jodi Ewart Shadoff	1.13%	88	151	0.50%	6	-2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alexa Pano	1.29%	78	126	0.50%	71	-1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yuna Nishimura	1.37%	73	101	0.40%	27	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Bianca Pagdanganan	1.24%	81	126	0.40%	60	-1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yuri Yoshida	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	43	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brooke Matthews	1.25%	80	101	0.30%	17	-1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Paula Reto	0.78%	128	201	0.30%	43	-1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.