Simulation Results: Kroger Queen City Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.60%	167	71		30
Adela Cernousek	0.00%	10000	1001		47
Aditi Ashok	0.08%	1250	351		78
Akie Iwai	2.51%	40	34		88
Albane Valenzuela	0.01%	10000	1001		88
Alexa Pano	0.02%	5000	301		109
Alexandra Swayne	0.00%	10000	2001		136
Aline Krauter	0.01%	10000	601		63
Alison Lee	1.22%	82	71		33
Allisen Corpuz	1.99%	50	56	0.20%	69	-0.2	Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amanda Doherty	0.01%	10000	751		5
Amy Yang	0.04%	2500	451		102
Ana Belac	0.00%	10000	601		116
Andrea Lee	0.57%	175	81		40
Anna Nordqvist	0.07%	1429	501		69
Anne Chen	0.00%	10000	501		47
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.19%	526	201		21
Arpichaya Yubol	0.24%	417	176		40
Ashleigh Buhai	0.00%	10000	751		88
Auston Kim	0.81%	123	56		116
Azahara Munoz	0.01%	10000	451		125
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000	1001		131
Brianna Do	0.01%	10000	551		74
Brooke Matthews	0.08%	1250	301		131
Camille Boyd	0.00%	10000	1001		109
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.03%	3333	351		12
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.01%	10000	751		116
Carolina Melgrati	0.01%	10000	551		63
Cassie Porter	0.26%	385	141		30
Celine Borge	0.00%	10000	751		78
Celine Boutier	1.41%	71	71		16
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.00%	10000	601		88
Charley Hull	3.75%	27	29	0.30%	40	-0.3	BetMGM: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chella Choi	0.03%	3333	351		21
Chiara Tamburlini	0.02%	5000	276		88
Chisato Iwai	1.37%	73	67		78
Cocona Sakurai	0.00%	10000	1251		54
Danielle Kang	0.00%	10000	501
Dewi Weber	0.03%	3333	351		109
Dongeun Lee	0.07%	1429	251		102
Ellise Rymer	0.00%	10000			131
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.01%	10000	501		54
Emma McMyler	0.00%	10000	601		63
Erika Hara	1.16%	86	67		16
Frida Kinhult	0.01%	10000	501		12
Gemma Dryburgh	0.01%	10000	751		54
Gigi Stoll	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Gina Kim	0.03%	3333	276		109
Gurleen Kaur	0.01%	10000	751		88
Haeji Kang	0.00%	10000	1251		142
Haeran Ryu	4.24%	24	23		2
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Hinako Shibuno	0.01%	10000	1251		47
Hira Naveed	0.00%	10000	1001		141
Hye-Jin Choi	3.82%	26	26		21
In Gee Chun	0.12%	833	226		21
Ina Yoon	3.85%	26	29	0.40%	12	-0.4	BetMGM: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ingrid Lindblad	0.01%	10000	551		21
Isabella Fierro	0.01%	10000	251		88
Isi Gabsa	0.00%	10000	601		88
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.03%	3333	351		78
Jeeno Thitikul	10.54%	9.5	9.5		7
Jennifer Kupcho	1.59%	63	51		8
Jenny Bae	0.67%	149	81		88
Jenny Shin	0.49%	204	151		33
Jeongeun Lee5	0.02%	5000	451		102
Jeongeun Lee6	0.00%	10000	501		47
Jessica Porvasnik	0.04%	2500	301		116
Jin Hee Im	1.15%	87	46		54
Jin Young Ko	0.09%	1111	176		5
Jing Yan	0.19%	526	181		74
Jiwon Jeon	0.01%	10000	451		128
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.26%	385	201		54
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.20%	500	181		63
Kumkang Park	0.02%	5000	601		131
Laetitia Beck	0.00%	10000	551		78
Laney Frye	0.01%	10000	601		124
Lauren Coughlin	0.55%	182	81		88
Lauren Hartlage	0.00%	10000	1001		74
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000	1251		116
Leona Maguire	0.05%	2000	276		33
Lexi Thompson	0.23%	435	176		54
Lilia Vu	0.00%	10000	751		33
Lindy Duncan	0.27%	370	161		33
Linnea Strom	0.01%	10000	451		116
Lottie Woad	1.36%	74	46		1
Lydia Ko	2.93%	34	29		8
Madison Reemsnyder	0.00%	10000	301		131
Madison Young	0.00%	10000	301		128
Maja Stark	0.21%	476	151		16
Manon De Roey	0.12%	833	301		33
Mao Saigo	0.74%	135	91		30
Mariel Galdiano	0.01%	10000	751		125
Mary Liu	0.02%	5000	351		78
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.02%	5000	751		21
Megan Khang	0.63%	159	101		63
Melanie Green	0.63%	159	76		88
Michelle Zhang	0.00%	10000	601		47
Mimi Rhodes	0.07%	1429	151		78
Mina Kreiter	0.00%	10000	751		116
Minami Katsu	1.20%	83	41		102
Minji Kang	0.02%	5000	351		21
Miyu Yamashita	3.14%	32	26		3
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Muni He	0.00%	10000	501		40
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.72%	139	111		40
Narin An	0.13%	769	251		63
Nasa Hataoka	1.34%	75	36		47
Nastasia Nadaud	0.09%	1111	276		109
Nataliya Guseva	0.04%	2500	276		102
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.02%	5000	401		109
Nelly Korda	28.77%	3.5	3.75	2.90%	8	-2.9	Spreadex: 2.75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olivia Cowan	0.03%	3333	251		77
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.23%	435	176		47
Patty Tavatanakit	0.83%	120	56		21
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	1251		102
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.04%	2500	401		116
Peiyun Chien	0.10%	1000	301		142
Perrine Delacour	0.15%	667	401		40
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	501		54
Pornanong Phatlum	0.03%	3333	551		16
Riley Smyth	0.00%	10000	1501		136
Rio Takeda	1.73%	58	51		21
Robyn Choi	0.07%	1429	351		8
Rose Zhang	0.67%	149	67		12
Ruoning Yin	5.45%	18	17		4
Ryann O'Toole	0.08%	1250	176		16
Saki Baba	0.03%	3333	301		128
Savannah Grewal	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Sei Young Kim	2.08%	48	34		40
Sofia Garcia	0.00%	10000	751		125
Soo Bin Joo	0.04%	2500	401		88
Sophia Schubert	0.02%	5000	751		54
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.00%	10000	1251		78
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.02%	5000	501		109
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.04%	2500	401		69
Weiwei Zhang	0.02%	5000	501		88
Yan Liu	0.46%	217	141		54
Yana Wilson	0.09%	1111	161		73
Yealimi Noh	0.06%	1667	251		69
Yu Liu	0.31%	323	176		78
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1501		88
Yuna Nishimura	0.01%	10000	601		78
Yuri Yoshida	0.07%	1429	501		33

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.32%	76	67		9
Adela Cernousek	0.15%	667	226		9
Aditi Ashok	0.54%	185	151		72
Akie Iwai	1.48%	68	41		49
Albane Valenzuela	0.34%	294	226		49
Alexa Pano	0.61%	164	151		140
Alexandra Swayne	0.11%	909	401		102
Aline Krauter	0.35%	286	226		30
Alison Lee	1.19%	84	67		72
Allisen Corpuz	1.76%	57	51		113
Amanda Doherty	0.40%	250	226		4
Amy Yang	0.46%	217	151		91
Ana Belac	0.28%	357	201		72
Andrea Lee	1.21%	83	71		9
Anna Nordqvist	0.71%	141	176	0.10%	30	-0.1	Star Sports: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anne Chen	0.15%	667	226		30
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.65%	154	101		30
Arpichaya Yubol	0.73%	137	101		49
Ashleigh Buhai	0.42%	238	201		113
Auston Kim	1.00%	100	61		113
Azahara Munoz	0.34%	294	176		102
Briana Chacon	0.09%	1111	401		130
Brianna Do	0.37%	270	176		113
Brooke Matthews	0.68%	147	126		102
Camille Boyd	0.18%	556	351		72
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.59%	169	151		30
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.41%	244	201		113
Carolina Melgrati	0.33%	303	176		49
Cassie Porter	0.97%	103	91		9
Celine Borge	0.34%	294	251		102
Celine Boutier	1.58%	63	61		9
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.24%	417	201		49
Charley Hull	2.16%	46	41		7
Chella Choi	0.55%	182	151		1
Chiara Tamburlini	0.34%	294	151		91
Chisato Iwai	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	72	-0.2	Betway: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cocona Sakurai	0.11%	909	401		9
Danielle Kang	0.20%	500	201
Dewi Weber	0.62%	161	151		137
Dongeun Lee	0.53%	189	126		49
Ellise Rymer	0.08%	1250	501		72
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.23%	435	201		72
Emma McMyler	0.11%	909	226		30
Erika Hara	1.11%	90	61		9
Frida Kinhult	0.38%	263	201		9
Gemma Dryburgh	0.29%	345	226		30
Gigi Stoll	0.24%	417	251		137
Gina Kim	0.55%	182	126		130
Gurleen Kaur	0.36%	278	201		102
Haeji Kang	0.09%	1111	401		113
Haeran Ryu	2.23%	45	34		49
Hailee Cooper	0.12%	833	401		113
Hinako Shibuno	0.23%	435	276		30
Hira Naveed	0.11%	909	401		130
Hye-Jin Choi	2.19%	46	36		72
In Gee Chun	0.83%	120	111		102
Ina Yoon	2.10%	48	41		1
Ingrid Lindblad	0.34%	294	176		30
Isabella Fierro	0.42%	238	151		72
Isi Gabsa	0.27%	370	226		113
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.56%	179	176		9
Jeeno Thitikul	2.49%	40	21		9
Jennifer Kupcho	1.34%	75	51		30
Jenny Bae	1.27%	79	71		113
Jenny Shin	1.12%	89	91		9
Jeongeun Lee5	0.33%	303	151		49
Jeongeun Lee6	0.35%	286	201		9
Jessica Porvasnik	0.56%	179	141		113
Jin Hee Im	1.13%	88	56		30
Jin Young Ko	0.55%	182	111		4
Jing Yan	0.60%	167	101		49
Jiwon Jeon	0.47%	213	176		130
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.99%	101	101		49
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.72%	139	101		91
Kumkang Park	0.44%	227	201		130
Laetitia Beck	0.24%	417	226		130
Laney Frye	0.41%	244	176		130
Lauren Coughlin	0.90%	111	81		91
Lauren Hartlage	0.10%	1000	351		9
Lauren Walsh	0.22%	455	351		72
Leona Maguire	0.62%	161	126		49
Lexi Thompson	0.93%	108	111		91
Lilia Vu	0.25%	400	201		4
Lindy Duncan	0.73%	137	101		9
Linnea Strom	0.38%	263	176		91
Lottie Woad	1.21%	83	46		30
Lydia Ko	1.59%	63	41		7
Madison Reemsnyder	0.09%	1111	111		140
Madison Young	0.21%	476	176		137
Maja Stark	0.69%	145	101		49
Manon De Roey	0.62%	161	126		72
Mao Saigo	0.99%	101	67		9
Mariel Galdiano	0.27%	370	226		102
Mary Liu	0.55%	182	151		49
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.41%	244	226		9
Megan Khang	1.29%	78	71		30
Melanie Green	0.94%	106	67		91
Michelle Zhang	0.17%	588	226		9
Mimi Rhodes	0.53%	189	91		72
Mina Kreiter	0.22%	455	226		49
Minami Katsu	1.58%	63	46		113
Minji Kang	0.40%	250	151		49
Miyu Yamashita	2.04%	49	34		30
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.18%	556	401		72
Muni He	0.31%	323	201		9
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	72	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Narin An	0.82%	122	111		49
Nasa Hataoka	1.62%	62	46		91
Nastasia Nadaud	0.54%	185	111		102
Nataliya Guseva	0.44%	227	126		113
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.51%	196	151		113
Nelly Korda	3.97%	25	13		9
Olivia Cowan	0.54%	185	151		72
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.98%	102	101		91
Patty Tavatanakit	1.06%	94	51		30
Paula Reto	0.35%	286	301		49
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.47%	213	176		102
Peiyun Chien	0.56%	179	111		113
Perrine Delacour	0.84%	119	126		102
Polly Mack	0.20%	500	176		72
Pornanong Phatlum	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	30	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Riley Smyth	0.07%	1429	401		91
Rio Takeda	1.32%	76	56		1
Robyn Choi	0.68%	147	151		49
Rose Zhang	0.93%	108	67		30
Ruoning Yin	2.49%	40	29		30
Ryann O'Toole	0.54%	185	101		30
Saki Baba	0.52%	192	151		113
Savannah Grewal	0.13%	769	401		113
Sei Young Kim	1.80%	56	46		49
Sofia Garcia	0.15%	667	226		140
Soo Bin Joo	0.45%	222	151		113
Sophia Schubert	0.38%	263	226		9
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.09%	1111	401		49
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.56%	179	176		140
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.42%	238	151		9
Weiwei Zhang	0.36%	278	176		49
Yan Liu	1.11%	90	91		72
Yana Wilson	0.51%	196	111		49
Yealimi Noh	0.49%	204	111		72
Yu Liu	0.81%	123	91		91
Yuka Saso	0.20%	500	351		72
Yuna Nishimura	0.33%	303	226		49
Yuri Yoshida	0.50%	200	176		102

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Nelly Korda	28.77%	3.5	3.75	2.90%	8	-2	Spreadex: 2.75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ina Yoon	3.85%	26	29	0.40%	12	-2	BetMGM: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Charley Hull	3.75%	27	29	0.30%	40	-2	BetMGM: 28/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Chisato Iwai	1.66%	60	67	0.20%	72	-1	Betway: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	72	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Anna Nordqvist	0.71%	141	176	0.10%	30	-1	Star Sports: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Pornanong Phatlum	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	30	-1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.