Simulation Results: Portland Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adela Cernousek 0.15% 667 226 54
Aditi Ashok 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 6 1.7 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Akie Iwai 2.72% 37 26 1
Alena Sharp 0.20% 500 401 126
Alexa Pano 0.41% 244 126 142
Alexandra Forsterling 0.12% 833 451 87
Aline Krauter 0.58% 172 176 61
Alison Takamiya 0.01% 10000 501 75
Amanda Doherty 0.39% 256 161 23
Amelia Lewis 0.01% 10000 1251 38
Ana Belac 0.31% 323 351 115
Angel Yin 5.81% 17 10 64
Annie Park 0.01% 10000 1001 126
Arpichaya Yubol 1.06% 94 126 0.30% 21 -0.3 Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashleigh Buhai 1.29% 78 67 57
Benedetta Moresco 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 18 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.26% 385 276 35
Brianna Do 0.13% 769 551 30
Brittany Altomare 0.01% 10000 451 75
Bronte Law 0.32% 313 176 115
Brooke M. Henderson 3.54% 28 29 0.10% 23 -0.1 BetGoodwin: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews 0.83% 120 181 0.30% 87 -0.3 Spreadex: 180/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caley McGinty 0.03% 3333 401 99
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra 0.57% 175 251 0.20% 75 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caroline Inglis 0.21% 476 401 23
Caroline Masson 0.33% 303 141 49
Caroline Smith 0.00% 10000 1001 104
Cassie Porter 0.56% 179 161 11
Celine Borge 0.14% 714 401 18
Celine Boutier 5.55% 18 15 16
Chanettee Wannasaen 1.89% 53 34 115
Cheyenne Knight 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 104 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chisato Iwai 2.42% 41 26 3
Christina Kim 0.03% 3333 1001 122
Dani Holmqvist 0.07% 1429 801 104
Daniela Darquea 0.73% 137 111 75
Daniela Iacobelli 0.03% 3333 1001 126
Danielle Kang 0.09% 1111 801 67
Dewi Weber 0.79% 127 101 23
Dottie Ardina 0.20% 500 601 38
Elizabeth Szokol 0.61% 164 151 122
Eun-Hee Ji 0.01% 10000 1001 115
Fiona Xu 0.01% 10000 401 136
Frida Kinhult 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gabriela Ruffels 1.78% 56 56 35
Gigi Stoll 0.10% 1000 451 66
Gina Kim 0.50% 200 101 11
Grace Kim 1.91% 52 36 5
Gurleen Kaur 0.25% 400 451 2
Haeran Ryu 3.61% 28 15 7
Hannah Green 1.54% 65 56 99
Haru Moon 0.02% 5000 142
Heather Lin 0.02% 5000 801 75
Hinako Shibuno 0.58% 172 161 61
Hira Naveed 0.28% 357 301 75
Hyo Joon Jang 0.01% 10000 601 46
Jaravee Boonchant 0.38% 263 451 0.20% 35 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.72% 139 201 0.20% 75 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Chang 0.13% 769 551 142
Jennifer Song 0.04% 2500 1001 126
Jeongeun Lee5 0.68% 147 131 23
Jeongeun Lee6 0.18% 556 551 87
Jessica Porvasnik 0.05% 2000 551 75
Jin Young Ko 3.01% 33 26 30
Jing Yan 0.41% 244 176 126
Jiwon Jeon 0.41% 244 301 0.10% 87 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Juli Inkster 0.00% 10000 2501 67
Julia Lopez Ramirez 1.10% 91 51 99
Kaitlyn Papp Budde 0.23% 435 401 49
Karis Davidson 0.71% 141 176 0.10% 87 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.13% 769 351 18
Katherine Perry-Hamski 0.03% 3333 1501 136
Kaylee Chung 0.00% 10000 126
Kelly Tan 0.00% 10000 1251 67
Kiara Romero 0.50% 200 56 7
Kiira Riihijarvi 0.02% 5000 1001 87
Kim Williams 0.00% 10000 1501 141
Kristen Gillman 1.24% 81 121 0.40% 38 -0.4 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kumkang Park 0.14% 714 301 38
Lauren Coughlin 3.90% 26 19 7
Lauren Hartlage 0.12% 833 401 87
Lauren Morris 0.10% 1000 751 67
Lee Lopez 0.00% 10000 1501 75
Lilia Vu 0.71% 141 126 57
Linn Grant 3.95% 25 23 3
Linnea Strom 0.09% 1111 551 75
Liqi Zeng 0.05% 2000 501 104
Madison Young 0.15% 667 401 122
Malia Nam 0.02% 5000 1251 104
Maria Fassi 0.16% 625 501 104
Maria Torres 0.00% 10000 1501 139
Mariel Galdiano 0.25% 400 451 67
Mary Liu 0.81% 123 226 0.40% 99 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Melanie Green 0.70% 143 51 30
Min Lee 0.08% 1250 551 87
Mina Kreiter 0.01% 10000 401 49
Minami Katsu 2.16% 46 41 38
Miranda Wang 1.02% 98 81 54
Mirim Lee 0.00% 10000 1001 87
Morgane Metraux 0.61% 164 276 0.20% 99 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.22% 455 111 104
Muni He 0.26% 385 226 63
Natalie Gulbis 0.00% 10000 2501 140
Nataliya Guseva 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 54 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Natthakritta Vongtaveelap 0.02% 5000 1501 133
Olivia Cowan 1.19% 84 126 0.40% 87 -0.4 Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pajaree Anannarukarn 1.87% 53 91 0.80% 13 -0.8 Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pannarat Thanapolboonyaras 0.04% 2500 1501 122
Paula Reto 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 75 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.72% 139 226 0.30% 49 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Peiyun Chien 0.72% 139 226 0.30% 13 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Perrine Delacour 1.90% 53 76 0.60% 23 -0.6 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Polly Mack 0.17% 588 301 119
Pornanong Phatlum 0.38% 263 226 38
Rio Takeda 5.12% 20 13 23
Robyn Choi 0.42% 238 226 13
Rose Zhang 1.43% 70 41 16
Ruixin Liu 1.03% 97 101 30
Ryann O'Toole 0.41% 244 201 75
Saki Baba 0.60% 167 176 87
Sarah Kemp 0.14% 714 801 104
Sarah White 0.04% 2500 751 133
Savannah Grewal 0.11% 909 551 38
Sofia Garcia 0.14% 714 401 104
Somi Lee 3.41% 29 19 30
Soo Bin Joo 0.56% 179 161 87
Sophia Popov 0.07% 1429 551 136
Stacy Lewis 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stephanie Meadow 0.12% 833 601 119
Su Oh 0.01% 10000 801 104
Sung Hyun Park 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 7 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tiffany Chan 0.03% 3333 1501 126
Weiwei Zhang 0.74% 135 126 67
Wichanee Meechai 0.17% 588 401 104
Xiaowen Yin 0.14% 714 401 21
Yahui Zhang 0.68% 147 161 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yani Tseng 0.06% 1667 1001 67
Yealimi Noh 2.23% 45 46 0.10% 38 -0.1 Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yu Liu 0.42% 238 49
Yue Ren 0.09% 1111 551 119
Yuka Saso 0.28% 357 251 135
Yuna Nishimura 0.23% 435 351 67
Yuri Yoshida 1.47% 68 76 0.20% 65 -0.2 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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