Simulation Results: Mizuho Americas Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.92%	109	56		68
Aditi Ashok	0.06%	1667	226		50
Akie Iwai	4.17%	24	23		68
Albane Valenzuela	0.01%	10000	601		82
Alexa Pano	0.05%	2000	401		25
Aline Krauter	0.01%	10000	501		68
Alison Lee	0.26%	385	201		3
Allisen Corpuz	1.69%	59	51		7
Amari Avery	0.02%	5000	176		33
Ami Gianchandani	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Amy Yang	0.08%	1250	301		90
Andrea Lee	0.94%	106	81		56
Angel Yin	0.60%	167	34		9
Anna Nordqvist	0.09%	1111	351		59
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.22%	455	161		82
Arpichaya Yubol	0.24%	417	161		33
Ashleigh Buhai	0.01%	10000	501		82
Auston Kim	1.02%	98	51		25
Ayaka Furue	1.23%	81	61		68
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000	751		68
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000	1001		105
Brianna Do	0.04%	2500	301		113
Brooke M. Henderson	1.84%	54	71	0.40%	68	-0.4	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews	0.06%	1667	351		39
Carlota Ciganda	1.25%	80	51		95
Cassie Porter	0.43%	233	111		45
Celine Borge	0.01%	10000	601		68
Celine Boutier	1.40%	71	86	0.20%	9	-0.2	Spreadex: 85/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.01%	10000	351		111
Charley Hull	6.60%	15	17	0.80%	59	-0.8	Spreadex: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chella Choi	0.04%	2500	351		45
Chisato Iwai	2.73%	37	36		107
Cocona Sakurai	0.01%	10000	1001		117
Dewi Weber	0.03%	3333	351		59
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.01%	10000	401		109
Erika Hara	1.04%	96	86		9
Esther Henseleit	0.29%	345	111		68
Gabriela Ruffels	0.14%	714	301		90
Gaby Lopez	2.56%	39	41	0.10%	3	0.3125	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gemma Dryburgh	0.02%	5000	501		95
Gina Kim	0.05%	2000	301		42
Grace Kim	0.39%	256	151		20
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	1001		57
Haeji Kang	0.00%	10000	1001
Haeran Ryu	4.66%	21	19		14
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000	751		114
Hannah Green	4.40%	23	15		14
Helen Briem	0.02%	5000	151		25
Hye-Jin Choi	3.22%	31	36	0.50%	3	1.328125	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ilhee Lee	0.00%	10000	601		90
In Gee Chun	0.39%	256	176		100
Ina Yoon	5.26%	19	21	0.50%	20	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad	0.01%	10000	501		54
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.03%	3333	501		45
Jeeno Thitikul	8.47%	12	13	0.80%	1	6	Ladbrokes: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho	1.28%	78	61		12
Jenny Bae	0.39%	256	126		3
Jenny Shin	0.27%	370	226		7
Jeongeun Lee5	0.02%	5000	501		68
Jin Young Ko	0.17%	588	111		52
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.13%	769	161		25
Karis Davidson	0.23%	435	151		39
Kumkang Park	0.02%	5000	501		82
Laetitia Beck	0.00%	10000	601		45
Lauren Coughlin	0.94%	106	56		82
Leona Maguire	0.07%	1429	201		100
Lexi Thompson	0.76%	132	131		68
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	501		100
Lindy Duncan	0.37%	270	131		52
Linn Grant	1.40%	71	81	0.20%	33	-0.2	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lizette Salas	0.01%	10000	601		107
Lottie Woad	4.21%	24	26	0.40%	111	-0.4	Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li	0.29%	345	151		82
Lydia Ko	2.85%	35	26		18
Madelene Sagstrom	0.11%	909	226		58
Maja Stark	0.14%	714	151		25
Manon De Roey	0.19%	526	226		59
Mao Saigo	0.49%	204	111		18
Mary Liu	0.05%	2000	276		105
Megan Khang	0.43%	233	111		12
Melanie Green	0.61%	164	86		20
Mi Hyang Lee	0.29%	345	131		37
Michelle Wie West	0.00%	10000	1501		115
Minami Katsu	1.45%	69	41		14
Minji Kang	0.06%	1667	301		50
Miyu Yamashita	4.15%	24	23		20
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	751		59
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.11%	90	81		68
Narin An	0.11%	909	351		33
Nasa Hataoka	2.64%	38	29		68
Nataliya Guseva	0.08%	1250	201		95
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.02%	5000	401		45
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.24%	417	201		25
Patty Tavatanakit	2.18%	46	41		82
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	1001		59
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.06%	1667	301		95
Perrine Delacour	0.09%	1111	351		20
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	1001		14
Riley Smyth	0.00%	10000	1001		115
Rio Takeda	2.38%	42	36		59
Robyn Choi	0.06%	1667	401		39
Rose Zhang	0.46%	217	67		25
Ruixin Liu	0.09%	1111	251		100
Ruoning Yin	5.22%	19	23	0.90%	2	2.025	Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryann O'Toole	0.24%	417	141		54
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	351		25
Sei Young Kim	3.59%	28	26		68
Soo Bin Joo	0.09%	1111	251		59
Sophia Schubert	0.05%	2000	501		95
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.00%	10000	1001		90
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.00%	10000	751		100
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.04%	2500	501		42
Weiwei Zhang	0.05%	2000	301		109
Yan Liu	0.59%	169	101		59
Yana Wilson	0.06%	1667	226		33
Yealimi Noh	0.12%	833	176		82
Youmin Hwang	1.44%	69	46		33
Yu Liu	0.52%	192	81		42
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	751		68
Yuri Yoshida	0.09%	1111	351		90

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.88%	114	61		37
Aditi Ashok	0.77%	130	126		56
Akie Iwai	1.46%	68	34		37
Albane Valenzuela	0.47%	213	226		83
Alexa Pano	0.42%	238	176		19
Aline Krauter	0.26%	385	176		37
Alison Lee	1.03%	97	126	0.20%	56	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Allisen Corpuz	1.04%	96	61		19
Amari Avery	0.28%	357	91		69
Ami Gianchandani	0.03%	3333	401		119
Amy Yang	0.44%	227	126		83
Andrea Lee	1.52%	66	61		1
Angel Yin	1.28%	78	46		10
Anna Nordqvist	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	56	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.54%	185	91		10
Arpichaya Yubol	0.62%	161	91		69
Ashleigh Buhai	0.34%	294	201		94
Auston Kim	1.52%	66	61		19
Ayaka Furue	1.02%	98	61		19
Benedetta Moresco	0.15%	667	251		69
Briana Chacon	0.09%	1111	301		69
Brianna Do	0.39%	256	141		116
Brooke M. Henderson	1.16%	86	67		69
Brooke Matthews	0.41%	244	151		4
Carlota Ciganda	1.56%	64	61		37
Cassie Porter	1.26%	79	81		37
Celine Borge	0.36%	278	201		83
Celine Boutier	1.03%	97	71		56
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.50%	200	151		94
Charley Hull	1.75%	57	34		56
Chella Choi	0.65%	154	151		19
Chisato Iwai	1.26%	79	46		94
Cocona Sakurai	0.25%	400	251		114
Dewi Weber	0.60%	167	141		83
Emily Kristine Pedersen	0.28%	357	151		108
Erika Hara	0.95%	105	67		10
Esther Henseleit	0.67%	149	91		94
Gabriela Ruffels	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	94	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gaby Lopez	1.32%	76	51		19
Gemma Dryburgh	0.34%	294	176		83
Gina Kim	0.40%	250	126		6
Grace Kim	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	37	-0.1	William Hill: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur	0.18%	556	301		56
Haeji Kang	0.08%	1250	401
Haeran Ryu	2.39%	42	34		37
Hailee Cooper	0.30%	333	301		94
Hannah Green	1.50%	67	29		6
Helen Briem	0.28%	357	101		19
Hye-Jin Choi	1.34%	75	46		4
Ilhee Lee	0.29%	345	226		94
In Gee Chun	0.66%	152	101		37
Ina Yoon	2.49%	40	34		69
Ingrid Lindblad	0.21%	476	201		19
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.38%	263	201		19
Jeeno Thitikul	3.07%	33	29		2
Jennifer Kupcho	0.96%	104	67		10
Jenny Bae	0.67%	149	91		56
Jenny Shin	1.05%	95	126	0.30%	69	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee5	0.58%	172	176		83
Jin Young Ko	0.92%	109	91		37
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.84%	119	101		69
Karis Davidson	0.56%	179	91		37
Kumkang Park	0.53%	189	201		37
Laetitia Beck	0.20%	500	226		56
Lauren Coughlin	0.88%	114	61		10
Leona Maguire	0.73%	137	111		94
Lexi Thompson	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	69	-0.1	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lilia Vu	0.43%	233	201		83
Lindy Duncan	1.10%	91	81		37
Linn Grant	0.96%	104	67		10
Lizette Salas	0.48%	208	226		108
Lottie Woad	2.33%	43	41		116
Lucy Li	1.10%	91	101	0.10%	108	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lydia Ko	1.30%	77	41		2
Madelene Sagstrom	0.77%	130	126		69
Maja Stark	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	56	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manon De Roey	0.52%	192	126		108
Mao Saigo	0.72%	139	91		37
Mary Liu	0.67%	149	126		108
Megan Khang	0.73%	137	91		19
Melanie Green	1.29%	78	67		37
Mi Hyang Lee	1.06%	94	91		37
Michelle Wie West	0.04%	2500	401		118
Minami Katsu	1.06%	94	51		10
Minji Kang	0.39%	256	151		10
Miyu Yamashita	2.31%	43	36		69
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.10%	1000	351		19
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.97%	103	67		56
Narin An	0.44%	227	151		19
Nasa Hataoka	1.28%	78	41		6
Nataliya Guseva	0.78%	128	111		37
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.33%	303	176		56
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.62%	161	111		37
Patty Tavatanakit	1.89%	53	51		83
Paula Reto	0.45%	222	301	0.10%	19	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.42%	238	126		94
Perrine Delacour	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	19	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Polly Mack	0.12%	833	251		6
Riley Smyth	0.20%	500	301		114
Rio Takeda	1.98%	51	46		56
Robyn Choi	0.71%	141	151		19
Rose Zhang	0.74%	135	67		37
Ruixin Liu	0.44%	227	126		108
Ruoning Yin	2.53%	40	41	0.10%	10	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryann O'Toole	0.95%	105	91		83
Saki Baba	0.55%	182	151		37
Sei Young Kim	2.20%	45	41		94
Soo Bin Joo	0.84%	119	126		69
Sophia Schubert	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	56	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.15%	667	301		83
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.26%	385	226		94
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	69	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang	0.73%	137	126		94
Yan Liu	0.78%	128	81		19
Yana Wilson	0.68%	147	111		69
Yealimi Noh	0.49%	204	101		94
Youmin Hwang	1.70%	59	51		19
Yu Liu	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	19	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuka Saso	0.14%	714	251		94
Yuri Yoshida	0.46%	217	151		83

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Ruoning Yin	5.22%	19	23	0.90%	2	4.5	Ladbrokes: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeeno Thitikul	8.47%	12	13	0.80%	1	15	Ladbrokes: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charley Hull	6.60%	15	17	0.80%	59	-2	Spreadex: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Shin	1.05%	95	126	0.30%	69	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Alison Lee	1.03%	97	126	0.20%	56	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Sophia Schubert	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	56	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ruoning Yin	2.53%	40	41	0.10%	10	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Lexi Thompson	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	69	-1	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yu Liu	1.34%	75	81	0.10%	19	-1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.