Simulation Results: Mizuho Americas Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.40% 71 36 46
Aditi Ashok 0.57% 175 301 0.20% 102 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akie Iwai 1.29% 78 41 87
Albane Valenzuela 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 47 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexa Pano 0.20% 500 501 26
Allisen Corpuz 1.53% 65 51 68
Amy Yang 1.02% 98 111 0.10% 102 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrea Lee 1.21% 83 81 3
Angel Yin 2.00% 50 26 74
Anna Nordqvist 0.35% 286 451 0.10% 41 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Arpichaya Yubol 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 29 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashleigh Buhai 1.01% 99 81 115
Auston Kim 0.67% 149 126 21
Ayaka Furue 2.83% 35 26 57
Bailey Tardy 0.10% 1000 751 51
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.07% 1429 601 57
Brittany Altomare 0.01% 10000 2001 87
Brooke M. Henderson 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 57 -0.1 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brooke Matthews 0.14% 714 501 108
Carlota Ciganda 1.44% 69 67 3
Caroline Inglis 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cassie Porter 0.18% 556 301 111
Celine Borge 0.10% 1000 1501 68
Celine Boutier 1.87% 53 46 2
Chanettee Wannasaen 1.09% 92 51 111
Cheyenne Knight 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chisato Iwai 1.17% 85 67 38
Dani Holmqvist 0.03% 3333 2001 102
Dewi Weber 0.22% 455 501 111
Elizabeth Szokol 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 21 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.38% 263 251 87
Erika Hara 0.27% 370 226 26
Esther Henseleit 2.24% 45 36 29
Eun-Hee Ji 0.02% 5000 2001 111
Fatima Fernandez Cano 0.02% 5000 1001 87
Fiona Xu 0.01% 10000 1001 119
Frida Kinhult 0.14% 714 751 74
Gabriela Ruffels 0.37% 270 226 41
Gemma Dryburgh 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 98 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Georgia Hall 0.48% 208 226 74
Gigi Stoll 0.06% 1667 751 120
Grace Kim 0.75% 133 111 47
Haeran Ryu 6.04% 17 13 26
Hannah Green 2.06% 49 51 0.10% 33 -0.1 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hinako Shibuno 0.19% 526 326 98
Hira Naveed 0.07% 1429 601 8
Hye-Jin Choi 2.25% 44 46 0.10% 33 -0.1 BetVictor: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joon Jang 0.05% 2000 1001 53
In Gee Chun 0.49% 204 376 0.20% 38 -0.2 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon 1.49% 67 51 57
Ingrid Lindblad 1.18% 85 71 57
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.26% 385 451 74
Jeeno Thitikul 5.68% 18 10 1
Jennifer Kupcho 1.36% 74 71 33
Jenny Bae 0.18% 556 501 41
Jenny Coleman 0.01% 10000 1001 102
Jenny Shin 0.59% 169 251 0.20% 29 -0.2 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee6 0.08% 1250 751 57
Jessica Porvasnik 0.03% 3333 1251 68
Jin Hee Im 2.19% 46 46 15
Jiwon Jeon 0.19% 526 501 68
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.10% 1000 1501 41
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.08% 1250 501 29
Karis Davidson 0.06% 1667 2001 56
Kristen Gillman 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kumkang Park 0.03% 3333 2001 74
Lauren Coughlin 2.58% 39 31 21
Lauren Hartlage 0.06% 1667 1001 87
Lauren Morris 0.12% 833 1001 68
Leona Maguire 0.63% 159 161 102
Lindsey Weaver-Wright 0.07% 1429 751 87
Lindy Duncan 1.20% 83 81 11
Linnea Strom 0.08% 1250 751 87
Lucy Li 0.59% 169 161 19
Lydia Ko 2.40% 42 23 11
Madelene Sagstrom 0.34% 294 161 74
Madison Young 0.05% 2000 751 87
Maja Stark 0.29% 345 176 41
Manon De Roey 0.70% 143 131 19
Megan Khang 1.35% 74 67 21
Mi Hyang Lee 1.05% 95 91 21
Minami Katsu 0.41% 244 176 15
Minjee Lee 3.15% 32 26 15
Miyu Yamashita 3.23% 31 23 57
Morgane Metraux 0.06% 1667 1001 98
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.16% 625 451 117
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.02% 98 91 87
Narin An 0.69% 145 161 0.10% 51 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nataliya Guseva 0.75% 133 111 57
Nelly Korda 4.31% 23 12 5
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.95% 105 151 0.30% 33 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 0.42% 238 111 14
Paula Reto 0.23% 435 501 68
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.16% 625 501 47
Peiyun Chien 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda 2.15% 47 21 8
Rose Zhang 0.85% 118 56 98
Ruixin Liu 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruoning Yin 4.54% 22 19 15
Sarah Kemp 0.13% 769 751 109
Sarah Schmelzel 2.12% 47 56 0.30% 47 -0.3 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Savannah Grewal 0.14% 714 601 117
Sei Young Kim 1.50% 67 51 109
Somi Lee 1.69% 59 67 0.20% 11 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ssu-Chia Cheng 0.05% 2000 1501 57
Stacy Lewis 0.08% 1250 2001 74
Stephanie Kyriacou 1.36% 74 67 5
Weiwei Zhang 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 87 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wichanee Meechai 0.12% 833 1001 57
Xiaowen Yin 0.05% 2000 1501 57
Yahui Zhang 0.59% 169 226 0.10% 33 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yan Liu 0.73% 137 81 74
Yana Wilson 0.08% 1250 226 87
Yealimi Noh 0.86% 116 56 5
Yu Liu 0.20% 500 501 74
Yuka Saso 0.09% 1111 276 116
Yuna Nishimura 0.18% 556 501 74
Yuri Yoshida 0.59% 169 131 74

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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