Simulation Results: LOTTE Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.79% 56 29 10
Adela Cernousek 0.03% 3333 1001 67
Akie Iwai 2.76% 36 26 4
Alena Sharp 0.04% 2500 751 57
Alexa Pano 0.15% 667 226 119
Alexa Takai 0.00% 10000 1001 109
Aline Krauter 0.27% 370 276 87
Alison Lee 0.05% 2000 141 74
Allisen Corpuz 1.59% 63 91 0.50% 14 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amanda Doherty 0.33% 303 351 87
Amy Yang 0.52% 192 176 49
Ana Belac 0.06% 1667 751 42
Andrea Lee 3.88% 26 26 12
Anna Nordqvist 0.27% 370 351 74
Annie Kim 0.00% 10000 1001 74
Arpichaya Yubol 0.46% 217 181 74
Auston Kim 0.93% 108 81 74
Azahara Munoz 0.29% 345 276 35
Bailey Tardy 0.19% 526 351 87
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.50% 200 161 95
Brianna Do 0.12% 833 1001 59
Brittany Altomare 0.02% 5000 1001 95
Brooke M. Henderson 4.45% 22 19 28
Brooke Matthews 0.96% 104 176 0.40% 8 -0.4 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caley McGinty 0.12% 833 551 87
Caroline Inglis 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 113 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caroline Masson 0.19% 526 326 49
Cassie Porter 0.38% 263 251 42
Celine Borge 0.57% 175 176 67
Charley Hull 6.24% 16 12 14
Chisato Iwai 3.22% 31 21 14
Dani Holmqvist 0.02% 5000 1251 109
Daniela Darquea 0.10% 1000 551 105
Danielle Kang 0.06% 1667 451 116
Dewi Weber 0.34% 294 276 14
Elizabeth Szokol 0.25% 400 351 35
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.41% 244 181 21
Frida Kinhult 0.19% 526 401 63
Gabriela Ruffels 1.03% 97 111 0.10% 28 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gigi Stoll 0.05% 2000 1001 116
Hae In Sung 0.03% 3333 751 74
Heather Lin 0.03% 3333 1251 74
Hinako Shibuno 0.19% 526 351 74
Hira Naveed 0.08% 1250 601 70
Honorine Nobuta Ferry 0.00% 10000 751 105
Hye-Jin Choi 5.31% 19 19 63
Hyo Joo Kim 2.69% 37 21 2
Hyo Joon Jang 0.03% 3333 801 35
Ilhee Lee 0.13% 769 751 70
In Gee Chun 1.02% 98 126 0.20% 42 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon 1.48% 68 67 42
Ingrid Lindblad 0.60% 167 151 57
Jaravee Boonchant 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.32% 313 251 49
Jennifer Kupcho 2.41% 41 34 23
Jenny Bae 0.92% 109 101 87
Jenny Shin 1.16% 86 126 0.40% 74 -0.4 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee5 0.72% 139 176 0.20% 21 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee6 0.15% 667 301 101
Jessica Porvasnik 0.06% 1667 1001 4
Jin Hee Im 2.55% 39 31 35
Jiwon Jeon 0.16% 625 1501 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.42% 238 201 63
Kaitlyn Papp Budde 0.11% 909 601 116
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.12% 833 1251 42
Kristen Gillman 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 35 -0.2 Unibet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kumkang Park 0.33% 303 201 28
Lauren Hartlage 0.07% 1429 551 28
Lauren Morris 0.08% 1250 1501 113
Leona Maguire 0.66% 152 81 109
Lindy Duncan 1.96% 51 111 1.10% 105 -1.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linnea Strom 0.11% 909 426 23
Lucy Li 0.53% 189 181 42
Madelene Sagstrom 0.65% 154 126 49
Madison Young 0.10% 1000 751 101
Mariel Galdiano 0.11% 909 1251 55
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.17% 588 501 74
Megan Khang 2.33% 43 36 14
Mina Kreiter 0.04% 2500 551 87
Minami Katsu 0.91% 110 91 3
Miyu Yamashita 5.65% 18 11 23
Morgane Metraux 0.07% 1429 1001 74
Narin An 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 55 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka 4.16% 24 19 8
Nataliya Guseva 0.99% 101 67 12
Nelly Korda 6.19% 16 9 4
Olivia Cowan 0.60% 167 176 95
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.96% 104 91 35
Patty Tavatanakit 0.81% 123 91 14
Paula Reto 0.20% 500 426 35
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.42% 238 226 87
Peiyun Chien 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 4 2.35 Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pernilla Lindberg 0.08% 1250 751 109
Perrine Delacour 1.29% 78 126 0.50% 101 -0.5 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Polly Mack 0.08% 1250 551 73
Pornanong Phatlum 0.35% 286 251 10
Rio Takeda 3.10% 32 18 32
Robyn Choi 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 32 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruixin Liu 0.63% 159 101 23
Ryann O'Toole 0.15% 667 301 59
Saki Baba 0.37% 270 301 101
Sarah Kemp 0.08% 1250 501 113
Sarah Schmelzel 0.87% 115 101 49
Savannah Grewal 0.05% 2000 1501 95
Sofia Garcia 0.11% 909 501 42
Somi Lee 2.12% 47 26 14
Soo Bin Joo 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sophia Popov 0.03% 3333 751 67
Soyoung Lee 0.24% 417 1251 0.20% 95 -0.2 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stacy Lewis 0.11% 909 451 32
Stephanie Meadow 0.08% 1250 551 59
Sung Hyun Park 0.28% 357 201 63
Tagiralani Luafalealo 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Xiaowen Yin 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yahui Zhang 0.44% 227 351 0.20% 59 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Youmin Hwang 1.69% 59 151 1.00% 1 93.75 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yu Liu 0.38% 263 176 87
Yuka Saso 0.03% 3333 401 120
Yuna Nishimura 0.18% 556 351 23
Yuri Yoshida 0.83% 120 141 0.10% 95 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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