Simulation Results: KPMG Women's PGA Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.12%	89	61		8
Aditi Ashok	0.08%	1250	401		89
Akie Iwai	0.85%	118	61		19
Alexa Pano	0.03%	3333	551		18
Aline Krauter	0.00%	10000	501		69
Alison Lee	1.04%	96	81		5
Allie Knight	0.00%	10000	2501		154
Allie White	0.00%	10000	2001		145
Allisen Corpuz	1.54%	65	61		5
Amanda Doherty	0.03%	3333	451		89
Amari Avery	0.01%	10000	226		127
Amy Yang	0.07%	1429	376		19
Ana Belac	0.02%	5000	301		71
Andrea Lee	0.25%	400	161		32
Angel Yin	0.54%	185	56		24
Anna Huang	0.02%	5000	226		42
Anna Nordqvist	0.02%	5000	751		53
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.28%	357	201		102
Arpichaya Yubol	0.12%	833	226		89
Ashleigh Buhai	0.02%	5000	751		116
Auston Kim	0.16%	625	141		5
Ayaka Furue	1.26%	79	81		19
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000	1001		24
Brianna Do	0.00%	10000	1001		71
Brooke M. Henderson	0.83%	120	151	0.20%	3	2.7	Spreadex: 140/1, 7pl, 1/5
Brooke Matthews	0.05%	2000	501		71
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.06%	1667	476		116
Carlota Ciganda	0.16%	625	151		71
Carolina Chacarra	0.00%	10000	751		64
Carolina Melgrati	0.01%	10000	551		32
Casandra Alexander	0.39%	256	131		127
Cassie Porter	0.86%	116	101		134
Celine Boutier	0.99%	101	71		59
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.05%	2000	351		71
Charley Hull	3.31%	30	29		71
Chella Choi	0.03%	3333	501		89
Chiara Tamburlini	0.01%	10000	501		89
Chisato Iwai	1.13%	88	61		102
Dani Holmqvist	0.00%	10000	1501		147
Danielle Kang	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Dewi Weber	0.02%	5000	551		3
Dongeun Lee	0.10%	1000	301		19
Erika Hara	0.26%	385	161		71
Esther Henseleit	0.42%	238	151		15
Frida Kinhult	0.01%	10000	601		116
Gabriela Ruffels	0.01%	10000	601		71
Gaby Lopez	3.13%	32	36	0.40%	12	-0.4	Spreadex: 35/1, 7pl, 1/5
Gemma Dryburgh	0.03%	3333	751		59
Gina Kim	0.01%	10000	501		89
Grace Kim	1.33%	75	126	0.50%	24	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	751		142
Haeran Ryu	3.52%	28	23		1
Hannah Green	2.57%	39	23		71
Helen Briem	0.10%	1000	161		116
Hinako Shibuno	0.01%	10000	501		64
Hye-Jin Choi	3.01%	33	34	0.10%	24	-0.1	Spreadex: 33/1, 7pl, 1/5
Hyo Joo Kim	4.22%	24	21		42
In Gee Chun	1.08%	93	81		24
Ina Yoon	1.35%	74	41		2
Ingrid Lindblad	0.00%	10000	501		150
Isabella Fierro	0.01%	10000	401		63
Isi Gabsa	0.00%	10000	751		71
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.01%	10000	601		155
Jeeno Thitikul	5.97%	17	15		8
Jennifer Chang	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Jennifer Kupcho	1.27%	79	51		116
Jenny Bae	0.40%	250	151		89
Jenny Shin	0.35%	286	251		32
Jessica Porvasnik	0.02%	5000	601		67
Jin Hee Im	1.55%	65	51		71
Jin Young Ko	0.15%	667	176		42
Jing Yan	0.14%	714	276		48
Jiwon Jeon	0.02%	5000	751		48
Joanna Coe	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.10%	1000	351
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.10%	1000	251		138
Karis Davidson	0.36%	278	176		12
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.00%	10000	751		148
Kim Paez	0.00%	10000	1501		134
Laetitia Beck	0.01%	10000	751		102
Laney Frye	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Lauren Coughlin	0.69%	145	151		89
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000	501		134
Leona Maguire	0.10%	1000	301		53
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	351		139
Lindy Duncan	0.32%	313	201		89
Linn Grant	0.37%	270	151		116
Linnea Strom	0.00%	10000	751		139
Lizette Salas	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Loretta Giovannettone	0.00%	10000	2501		153
Lottie Woad	3.82%	26	23		89
Lucy Li	0.10%	1000	401		116
Lydia Ko	1.57%	64	41		15
Maja Stark	0.55%	182	86		37
Manon De Roey	0.04%	2500	451		53
Mao Saigo	0.20%	500	151		32
Mary Liu	0.11%	909	276		127
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.02%	5000	601		102
Megan Khang	0.40%	250	201		66
Melanie Green	0.14%	714	226		71
Mi Hyang Lee	0.14%	714	351		127
Mimi Rhodes	0.05%	2000	276		116
Minami Katsu	1.02%	98	67		42
Minjee Lee	1.68%	60	56		71
Minji Kang	0.16%	625	151		24
Miranda Wang	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Miyu Yamashita	6.42%	16	19	1.20%	12	-1.2	Spreadex: 18/1, 7pl, 1/5
Morgane Metraux	0.01%	10000	551		116
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	1001		102
Muni He	0.01%	10000	751		127
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.70%	143	151		42
Narin An	0.10%	1000	326		116
Nasa Hataoka	2.92%	34	34		15
Nastasia Nadaud	0.08%	1250	301		48
Natalie Vivaldi	0.00%	10000	2501		150
Nataliya Guseva	0.03%	3333	301		24
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.04%	2500	551		89
Nelly Korda	13.77%	7.3	4.5		8
Nicole Broch Estrup	0.14%	714	501		102
Nicole Felce	0.00%	10000	2001		68
Olivia Cowan	0.02%	5000	451		102
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.31%	323	151		37
Patty Tavatanakit	0.43%	233	67		37
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.00%	10000	1001		59
Perrine Delacour	0.09%	1111	451		24
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	601		142
Pornanong Phatlum	0.07%	1429	601		53
Rio Takeda	2.22%	45	46		71
Robyn Choi	0.06%	1667	351		48
Rose Zhang	0.56%	179	81		53
Ruoning Yin	4.69%	21	15		37
Ryann O'Toole	0.05%	2000	301		155
Saki Baba	0.00%	10000	1001		52
Sandra Changkija	0.00%	10000	2501		148
Sei Young Kim	3.32%	30	34	0.40%	8	-0.4	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shannon Tan	0.07%	1429	176		32
Shiho Kuwaki	1.27%	79	51		24
Sofia Garcia	0.01%	10000	751		102
Somi Lee	1.81%	55	51		19
Soo Bin Joo	0.04%	2500	451		71
Sophia Schubert	0.01%	10000	1001		71
Stephanie Meadow	0.00%	10000	1001		142
Sung Hyun Park	0.01%	10000	501		42
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.01%	10000	751		71
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.05%	2000	226		53
Weiwei Zhang	0.02%	5000	751		37
Yahui Zhang	0.00%	10000			134
Yan Liu	0.56%	179	141		59
Yana Wilson	0.23%	435	226		127
Yani Tseng	0.01%	10000	1501		89
Yealimi Noh	0.02%	5000	501		102
Youmin Hwang	1.13%	88	111	0.20%	139	-0.2	Spreadex: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Yu Liu	0.12%	833	301		116
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1001		127
Yuna Nishimura	0.03%	3333	751		71
Yuri Yoshida	0.12%	833	301		89

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.17%	85	67		3
Aditi Ashok	0.48%	208	201		70
Akie Iwai	1.09%	92	67		19
Alexa Pano	0.44%	227	251		3
Aline Krauter	0.20%	500	226		5
Alison Lee	1.07%	93	67		8
Allie Knight	0.00%	10000	501		151
Allie White	0.02%	5000	401		135
Allisen Corpuz	1.23%	81	67		27
Amanda Doherty	0.42%	238	201		45
Amari Avery	0.37%	270	126		127
Amy Yang	0.49%	204	151		8
Ana Belac	0.39%	256	176		70
Andrea Lee	0.67%	149	101		8
Angel Yin	0.84%	119	61		27
Anna Huang	0.36%	278	126		70
Anna Nordqvist	0.43%	233	251		70
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.71%	141	126		70
Arpichaya Yubol	0.57%	175	126		70
Ashleigh Buhai	0.35%	286	251		98
Auston Kim	0.65%	154	101		27
Ayaka Furue	1.20%	83	81		8
Briana Chacon	0.16%	625	351		70
Brianna Do	0.18%	556	301		98
Brooke M. Henderson	1.02%	98	91		8
Brooke Matthews	0.48%	208	201		45
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.44%	227	176		108
Carlota Ciganda	0.65%	154	101		70
Carolina Chacarra	0.26%	385	251		127
Carolina Melgrati	0.26%	385	251		45
Casandra Alexander	0.78%	128	91		108
Cassie Porter	0.96%	104	81		98
Celine Boutier	1.13%	88	71		108
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.52%	192	176		135
Charley Hull	1.64%	61	41		70
Chella Choi	0.41%	244	201		98
Chiara Tamburlini	0.36%	278	201		70
Chisato Iwai	1.12%	89	61		70
Dani Holmqvist	0.16%	625	401		151
Danielle Kang	0.10%	1000	401		108
Dewi Weber	0.34%	294	251		19
Dongeun Lee	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	8	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erika Hara	0.71%	141	101		108
Esther Henseleit	0.80%	125	101		8
Frida Kinhult	0.33%	303	251		135
Gabriela Ruffels	0.30%	333	251		70
Gaby Lopez	1.53%	65	41		27
Gemma Dryburgh	0.36%	278	251		70
Gina Kim	0.29%	345	201		108
Grace Kim	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	45	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur	0.22%	455	301		135
Haeran Ryu	1.70%	59	34		70
Hannah Green	1.55%	65	36		45
Helen Briem	0.52%	192	91		98
Hinako Shibuno	0.32%	313	201		27
Hye-Jin Choi	1.50%	67	41		5
Hyo Joo Kim	1.86%	54	34		27
In Gee Chun	1.13%	88	81		70
Ina Yoon	1.25%	80	56		1
Ingrid Lindblad	0.26%	385	201		135
Isabella Fierro	0.35%	286	201		45
Isi Gabsa	0.33%	303	251		19
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.35%	286	251		127
Jeeno Thitikul	2.01%	50	29		8
Jennifer Chang	0.16%	625	351		127
Jennifer Kupcho	1.18%	85	61		127
Jenny Bae	0.79%	127	101		135
Jenny Shin	0.81%	123	151	0.10%	27	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Porvasnik	0.35%	286	251		19
Jin Hee Im	1.20%	83	61		108
Jin Young Ko	0.61%	164	111		45
Jing Yan	0.60%	167	151		8
Jiwon Jeon	0.34%	294	251		45
Joanna Coe	0.03%	3333	401		151
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.57%	175	176
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.58%	172	151		127
Karis Davidson	0.70%	143	101		2
Kate Smith-Stroh	0.20%	500	251		149
Kim Paez	0.03%	3333	501		108
Laetitia Beck	0.25%	400	251		70
Laney Frye	0.25%	400	351		108
Lauren Coughlin	0.94%	106	101		108
Lauren Walsh	0.29%	345	251		70
Leona Maguire	0.45%	222	151		108
Lilia Vu	0.35%	286	176		149
Lindy Duncan	0.76%	132	126		108
Linn Grant	0.79%	127	111		108
Linnea Strom	0.20%	500	301		135
Lizette Salas	0.20%	500	401		27
Loretta Giovannettone	0.05%	2000	501		146
Lottie Woad	1.69%	59	36		45
Lucy Li	0.60%	167	176		135
Lydia Ko	1.33%	75	51		127
Maja Stark	0.89%	112	81		70
Manon De Roey	0.45%	222	176		45
Mao Saigo	0.71%	141	111		45
Mary Liu	0.60%	167	151		70
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.37%	270	251		45
Megan Khang	0.80%	125	126		5
Melanie Green	0.61%	164	126		70
Mi Hyang Lee	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	108	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes	0.45%	222	151		70
Minami Katsu	1.14%	88	67		45
Minjee Lee	1.27%	79	51		27
Minji Kang	0.64%	156	101		45
Miranda Wang	0.10%	1000	351		144
Miyu Yamashita	2.03%	49	31		45
Morgane Metraux	0.22%	455	251		135
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.15%	667	401		45
Muni He	0.22%	455	301		127
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.96%	104	101		8
Narin An	0.59%	169	176		70
Nasa Hataoka	1.48%	68	41		19
Nastasia Nadaud	0.53%	189	176		27
Natalie Vivaldi	0.01%	10000	501		151
Nataliya Guseva	0.46%	217	176		19
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.41%	244	251		98
Nelly Korda	2.81%	36	15		19
Nicole Broch Estrup	0.61%	164	201	0.10%	98	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicole Felce	0.01%	10000	501		108
Olivia Cowan	0.34%	294	176		27
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.76%	132	101		27
Patty Tavatanakit	0.87%	115	67		27
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.17%	588	301		45
Perrine Delacour	0.52%	192	176		27
Polly Mack	0.23%	435	251		70
Pornanong Phatlum	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	98	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda	1.41%	71	56		45
Robyn Choi	0.47%	213	151		45
Rose Zhang	0.86%	116	81		70
Ruoning Yin	1.79%	56	29		27
Ryann O'Toole	0.46%	217	151		98
Saki Baba	0.22%	455	351		70
Sandra Changkija	0.02%	5000	501		144
Sei Young Kim	1.69%	59	46		45
Shannon Tan	0.50%	200	111		45
Shiho Kuwaki	1.13%	88	61		45
Sofia Garcia	0.22%	455	301		108
Somi Lee	1.32%	76	56		27
Soo Bin Joo	0.42%	238	151		45
Sophia Schubert	0.30%	333	251		70
Stephanie Meadow	0.15%	667	401		156
Sung Hyun Park	0.27%	370	251		45
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.36%	278	201		19
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.41%	244	126		8
Weiwei Zhang	0.38%	263	201		27
Yahui Zhang	0.24%	417	251		108
Yan Liu	0.83%	120	91		98
Yana Wilson	0.64%	156	126		146
Yani Tseng	0.28%	357	351		70
Yealimi Noh	0.31%	323	201		108
Youmin Hwang	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	151	-0.1	Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yu Liu	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	108	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuka Saso	0.17%	588	351		45
Yuna Nishimura	0.40%	250	251		27
Yuri Yoshida	0.57%	175	176		70

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Miyu Yamashita	6.42%	16	19	1.20%	12	-2	Spreadex: 18/1, 7pl, 1/5
WIN: Grace Kim	1.33%	75	126	0.50%	24	-2	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Sei Young Kim	3.32%	30	34	0.40%	8	-2	Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Grace Kim	1.25%	80	91	0.20%	45	-1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Youmin Hwang	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	151	-1	Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Shin	0.81%	123	151	0.10%	27	-1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Mi Hyang Lee	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	108	-1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yu Liu	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	108	-1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dongeun Lee	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	8	-1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.