Simulation Results: KPMG Women's PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.24% 81 56 79
Aditi Ashok 0.14% 714 401 149
Akie Iwai 1.22% 82 41 29
Albane Valenzuela 0.22% 455 301 110
Alexa Pano 0.08% 1250 501 148
Aline Krauter 0.15% 667 161 95
Alison Curdt 0.00% 10000 3001 153
Allie Knight 0.00% 10000 3001 146
Allie White 0.00% 10000 2501 123
Allisen Corpuz 0.77% 130 131 79
Amy Yang 0.49% 204 201 95
Ana Belac 0.08% 1250 1001 69
Andrea Lee 1.65% 61 61 23
Angel Yin 1.68% 60 36 6
Anna Nordqvist 0.25% 400 226 79
Ariya Jutanugarn 2.29% 44 41 52
Arpichaya Yubol 0.21% 476 451 45
Ashleigh Buhai 0.40% 250 226 79
Ashley Grier 0.00% 10000 3001 152
Auston Kim 0.49% 204 111 2
Ayaka Furue 1.77% 56 34 123
Azahara Munoz 0.16% 625 401 29
Bailey Tardy 0.04% 2500 751 95
Benedetta Moresco 0.11% 909 501 146
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.07% 1429 1001 52
Brianna Do 0.03% 3333 1001 23
Brooke M. Henderson 1.66% 60 67 0.20% 36 -0.2 BetVictor: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brooke Matthews 0.13% 769 601 61
Carlota Ciganda 1.71% 58 46 71
Caroline Inglis 0.10% 1000 1251 142
Caroline Masson 0.09% 1111 601 123
Cassie Porter 0.09% 1111 501 110
Celine Boutier 2.59% 39 26 123
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.71% 141 126 2
Charley Hull 1.96% 51 36 12
Cheyenne Knight 0.05% 2000 1001 139
Chiara Tamburlini 0.38% 263 176 134
Chisato Iwai 1.04% 96 61 4
Cristie Kerr 0.01% 10000 2501 131
Danielle Kang 0.01% 10000 1001 134
Dewi Weber 0.21% 476 501 31
Elizabeth Szokol 0.25% 400 401 79
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.31% 323 276 79
Esther Henseleit 1.18% 85 61 12
Frida Kinhult 0.06% 1667 751 110
Gabriela Ruffels 0.30% 333 201 36
Gaby Lopez 0.73% 137 161 0.10% 47 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gemma Dryburgh 0.25% 400 451 110
Georgia Hall 0.40% 250 226 110
Gigi Stoll 0.01% 10000 1251 110
Grace Kim 0.39% 256 111 36
Gurleen Kaur 0.01% 10000 1501 95
Haeji Kang 0.08% 1250 601 79
Haeran Ryu 3.00% 33 21 61
Hannah Green 1.44% 69 67 68
Heather Angell 0.00% 10000 3001
Hinako Shibuno 0.21% 476 201 95
Hira Naveed 0.08% 1250 451 77
Hye-Jin Choi 3.93% 25 26 0.10% 8 -0.1 Spreadex: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hyo Joo Kim 1.80% 56 41 154
Ilhee Lee 0.18% 556 401 78
In Gee Chun 0.19% 526 276 31
Ina Yoon 1.27% 79 101 0.30% 95 -0.3 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad 0.70% 143 101 110
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.12% 833 1001 71
Jeeno Thitikul 4.84% 21 11 4
Jennifer Kupcho 1.55% 65 76 0.20% 23 -0.2 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jenny Bae 0.27% 370 251 47
Jenny Shin 0.43% 233 201 12
Jeongeun Lee5 0.11% 909 501 142
Jeongeun Lee6 0.03% 3333 1001 79
Jin Hee Im 1.77% 56 56 95
Jin Young Ko 1.75% 57 41 154
Jing Yan 0.15% 667 501 61
Jiwon Jeon 0.17% 588 601 79
Joanna Coe 0.00% 10000 3001 123
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.11% 909 601 79
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.19% 526 251 36
Karis Davidson 0.22% 455 401 47
Katelyn Sepmoree 0.00% 10000 3001 149
Kristen Gillman 0.61% 164 111 139
Kumkang Park 0.04% 2500 1001 36
Lauren Coughlin 0.97% 103 101 134
Lauren Hartlage 0.03% 3333 1001 75
Leona Maguire 0.22% 455 226 19
Lexi Thompson 1.65% 61 67 0.20% 12 -0.2 Betfred: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lilia Vu 0.05% 2000 176 95
Lindy Duncan 0.82% 122 111 31
Linn Grant 1.05% 95 67 79
Linnea Strom 0.03% 3333 601 123
Lucy Li 0.43% 233 176 12
Lydia Ko 2.08% 48 31 12
Madelene Sagstrom 0.35% 286 151 95
Madison Young 0.05% 2000 1001 95
Maja Stark 0.40% 250 131 47
Manon De Roey 0.31% 323 276 79
Mao Saigo 2.29% 44 41 95
Mariel Galdiano 0.07% 1429 751 123
Mary Liu 0.09% 1111 751 36
Megan Khang 1.10% 91 81 52
Mi Hyang Lee 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 31 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mimi Rhodes 0.12% 833 226 79
Minami Katsu 0.40% 250 161 36
Minjee Lee 2.95% 34 23 1
Miranda Wang 0.40% 250 251 19
Mirim Lee 0.00% 10000 2001 151
Miyu Yamashita 1.87% 53 46 6
Morgane Metraux 0.08% 1250 1001 36
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.04% 2500 601 69
Muni He 0.11% 909 601 123
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 0.97% 103 71 52
Narin An 0.31% 323 301 66
Nasa Hataoka 1.63% 61 71 0.20% 36 -0.2 Unibet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Natalie Vivaldi 0.00% 10000 3001 142
Nataliya Guseva 0.28% 357 161 75
Nelly Korda 5.05% 20 12 19
Nicole Felce 0.00% 10000 3001 142
Olivia Cowan 0.19% 526 601 74
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.40% 250 501 0.20% 110 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 0.43% 233 131 52
Paula Reto 0.14% 714 501 52
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.12% 833 451 10
Peiyun Chien 0.18% 556 601 61
Pornanong Phatlum 0.05% 2000 751 95
Rio Takeda 1.65% 61 41 23
Robyn Choi 0.27% 370 351 79
Rose Zhang 0.39% 256 111 73
Ruixin Liu 0.12% 833 501 31
Ruoning Yin 4.04% 25 17 23
Ryann O'Toole 0.13% 769 601 52
Saki Baba 0.40% 250 161 110
Sandra Changkija 0.00% 10000 3001 134
Sarah Schmelzel 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 110 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Savannah Grewal 0.01% 10000 1501 79
Sei Young Kim 0.62% 161 81 52
Shiho Kuwaki 0.35% 286 111 79
Shinsil Bang 0.76% 132 101 23
Somi Lee 2.09% 48 46 8
Soo Bin Joo 0.17% 588 401 52
Sophia Popov 0.03% 3333 601 131
Stacy Lewis 0.04% 2500 1001 110
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.62% 161 101 47
Suji Kim 0.97% 103 201 0.50% 110 -0.5 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sung Hyun Park 0.03% 3333 1001 139
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.39% 256 201 10
Weiwei Zhang 0.41% 244 251 95
Yahui Zhang 0.26% 385 251 131
Yan Liu 0.16% 625 401 45
Yani Tseng 0.00% 10000 1501 95
Yealimi Noh 1.35% 74 41 12
Youmin Hwang 0.99% 101 101 19
Yu Liu 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 138 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yui Kawamoto 0.58% 172 111 95
Yuka Saso 0.05% 2000 301 66
Yuna Nishimura 0.04% 2500 1001 61
Yuri Yoshida 0.00% 10000 251 110

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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