Simulation Results: HSBC Women's World Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.75% 36 34 7
Albane Valenzuela 0.85% 118 161 0.20% 41 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alexa Pano 0.12% 833 501 61
Allisen Corpuz 2.01% 50 31 21
Amy Yang 1.40% 71 46 21
Andrea Lee 0.51% 196 231 0.10% 34 -0.1 Spreadex: 230/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Yin 3.47% 29 19 65
Ariya Jutanugarn 1.58% 63 51 38
Arpichaya Yubol 0.23% 435 276 52
Auston Kim 0.45% 222 151 39
Ayaka Furue 3.45% 29 23 2
Bailey Tardy 0.10% 1000 601 34
Brittany Altomare 0.02% 5000 2001 48
Brooke M. Henderson 2.03% 49 46 21
Carlota Ciganda 1.33% 75 126 0.50% 14 -0.5 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caroline Masson 0.19% 526 601 41
Celine Boutier 3.60% 28 23 29
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.40% 250 226 45
Charley Hull 3.01% 33 23 4
Danielle Kang 0.06% 1667 801 62
Esther Henseleit 0.58% 172 111 52
Gabriela Ruffels 0.57% 175 251 0.20% 59 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gaby Lopez 0.77% 130 126 4
Grace Kim 0.41% 244 226 60
Haeran Ryu 4.02% 25 15 18
Hannah Green 3.55% 28 21 7
Hinako Shibuno 0.10% 1000 601 45
Hye-Jin Choi 1.91% 52 41 11
Hyo Joo Kim 1.61% 62 51 7
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.24% 417 351 55
Jeeno Thitikul 12.12% 8.3 6 2
Jennifer Kupcho 1.71% 58 61 0.10% 29 -0.1 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Shin 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 65 -0.2 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jin Hee Im 2.53% 40 36 4
Jin Young Ko 4.18% 24 13 18
Lauren Coughlin 1.81% 55 61 0.20% 18 -0.2 Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Leona Maguire 0.86% 116 91 21
Lilia Vu 0.58% 172 67 29
Linn Grant 3.79% 26 29 0.40% 41 -0.4 BetVictor: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linnea Strom 0.09% 1111 801 45
Lucy Li 0.47% 213 226 39
Lydia Ko 3.11% 32 15 1
Maja Stark 0.45% 222 176 55
Mao Saigo 1.35% 74 76 11
Mi Hyang Lee 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 21 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Minjee Lee 1.40% 71 34 11
Miranda Wang 0.03% 3333 601 29
Miyu Yamashita 3.91% 26 17 21
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.34% 294 161 29
Muni He 0.24% 417 501 50
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.84% 54 46 14
Narin An 0.80% 125 141 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nasa Hataoka 2.35% 43 29 14
Nataliya Guseva 0.48% 208 126 50
Pajaree Anannarukarn 1.45% 69 101 0.50% 14 -0.5 Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda 2.67% 37 26 21
Ruixin Liu 0.53% 189 201 41
Ruoning Yin 3.00% 33 19 21
Ryann O'Toole 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sarah Schmelzel 0.66% 152 226 0.20% 34 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shannon Tan 0.18% 556 276 34
Sophia Popov 0.03% 3333 1001 52
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.29% 345 201 48
Xingtong Chen 0.00% 10000 1501 64
Yealimi Noh 3.35% 30 29 7
Yuka Saso 0.53% 189 101

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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