Simulation Results: HSBC Womens World Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.89%	35	23		52
Akie Iwai	1.31%	76	31		8
Allisen Corpuz	1.09%	92	56		27
Andrea Lee	1.21%	83	51		10
Angel Yin	0.01%	10000	176		3
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.77%	130	67		18
Auston Kim	0.39%	256	81		2
Ayaka Furue	2.41%	41	31		21
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000	601		59
Brooke M. Henderson	2.70%	37	34		34
Brooke Matthews	0.16%	625	126		34
Carlota Ciganda	0.14%	714	161		41
Cassie Porter	0.03%	3333	601		18
Celine Boutier	0.78%	128	81		52
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.04%	2500	201		41
Charley Hull	5.90%	17	17		10
Chisato Iwai	4.26%	23	23		21
Esther Henseleit	0.05%	2000	226		10
Gaby Lopez	0.99%	101	56		27
Gemma Dryburgh	0.01%	10000	301		47
Grace Kim	0.22%	455	151		41
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	751		34
Haeran Ryu	3.73%	27	26		6
Hannah Green	3.05%	33	29		1
Hye-Jin Choi	6.11%	16	21	1.40%	21	-1.4	Spreadex: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	6.62%	15	21	2.00%	21	-2	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ina Yoon	0.32%	313	81		41
Ingrid Lindblad	0.01%	10000	376		72
Jeeno Thitikul	23.51%	4.3	4.5	1.70%	31	-1.7	Betfred: 3.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho	0.17%	588	91		59
Jenny Bae	0.17%	588	201		59
Jenny Shin	0.04%	2500	276		34
Jin Hee Im	0.23%	435	111		57
Jin Young Ko	0.23%	435	81		47
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.02%	5000	401		10
Karis Davidson	0.02%	5000	376		47
Leona Maguire	0.04%	2500	401		41
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	251		67
Lindy Duncan	0.24%	417	141		7
Linn Grant	0.85%	118	56		10
Lottie Woad	3.00%	33	29		10
Lucy Li	0.09%	1111	176		55
Lydia Ko	4.93%	20	17		27
Manon De Roey	0.05%	2000	301		55
Mao Saigo	0.34%	294	67		21
Megan Khang	0.17%	588	121		47
Mi Hyang Lee	0.19%	526	251		58
Mimi Rhodes	0.08%	1250	76		10
Minami Katsu	0.12%	833	111		31
Minjee Lee	2.77%	36	21		3
Miyu Yamashita	3.30%	30	23		10
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.29%	78	56		31
Nataliya Guseva	0.03%	3333	226		52
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.46%	217	126		59
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	751		70
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.01%	10000	551		3
Rio Takeda	1.00%	100	61		8
Robyn Choi	0.00%	10000	451		59
Ruoning Yin	2.55%	39	29		41
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	451		34
Sei Young Kim	4.95%	20	19		21
Shannon Tan	0.15%	667	81		69
Somi Lee	2.29%	44	34		65
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.02%	5000	161		71
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.00%	10000	1001		34
Xingtong Chen	0.00%	10000	1001		59
Yan Liu	0.10%	1000	251		27
Yealimi Noh	0.19%	526	151		65
Youmin Hwang	1.12%	89	51		18
Yujie Liu	0.00%	10000	601		34
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1001		67
Yuri Yoshida	0.06%	1667	226		47

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.35%	43	34		36
Akie Iwai	1.83%	55	34		58
Allisen Corpuz	1.76%	57	46		49
Andrea Lee	1.87%	53	46		14
Angel Yin	0.52%	192	101		49
Ariya Jutanugarn	1.69%	59	51		8
Auston Kim	1.39%	72	51		1
Ayaka Furue	2.23%	45	34		18
Benedetta Moresco	0.28%	357	251		68
Brooke M. Henderson	2.38%	42	34		14
Brooke Matthews	1.05%	95	71		8
Carlota Ciganda	1.20%	83	81		49
Cassie Porter	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	49	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Celine Boutier	1.64%	61	56		8
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.79%	127	101		36
Charley Hull	3.00%	33	29		28
Chisato Iwai	2.64%	38	34		36
Esther Henseleit	0.79%	127	101		18
Gaby Lopez	1.79%	56	46		58
Gemma Dryburgh	0.56%	179	111		28
Grace Kim	1.13%	88	81		36
Gurleen Kaur	0.36%	278	251		18
Haeran Ryu	2.63%	38	34		3
Hannah Green	2.35%	43	36		18
Hye-Jin Choi	3.09%	32	26		18
Hyo Joo Kim	3.19%	31	29		18
Ina Yoon	1.30%	77	56		36
Ingrid Lindblad	0.53%	189	141		71
Jeeno Thitikul	5.16%	19	13		36
Jennifer Kupcho	1.08%	93	61		49
Jenny Bae	1.15%	87	81		58
Jenny Shin	0.73%	137	126		28
Jin Hee Im	1.19%	84	71		18
Jin Young Ko	1.14%	88	56		8
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.60%	167	111		36
Karis Davidson	0.66%	152	126		36
Leona Maguire	0.72%	139	141		28
Lilia Vu	0.53%	189	111		58
Lindy Duncan	1.27%	79	71		3
Linn Grant	1.58%	63	51		3
Lottie Woad	2.40%	42	34		36
Lucy Li	0.88%	114	91		58
Lydia Ko	2.84%	35	26		14
Manon De Roey	0.83%	120	126		68
Mao Saigo	1.31%	76	51		28
Megan Khang	1.09%	92	71		36
Mi Hyang Lee	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	49	-0.3	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes	0.88%	114	56		3
Minami Katsu	0.96%	104	71		49
Minjee Lee	2.46%	41	29		28
Miyu Yamashita	2.54%	39	29		3
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.88%	53	46		8
Nataliya Guseva	0.70%	143	101		36
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.37%	73	71		71
Paula Reto	0.37%	270	201		68
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	18	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda	1.72%	58	51		18
Robyn Choi	0.46%	217	151		36
Ruoning Yin	2.26%	44	36		28
Saki Baba	0.50%	200	151		28
Sei Young Kim	2.87%	35	29		18
Shannon Tan	1.03%	97	61		58
Somi Lee	2.24%	45	41		58
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.60%	167	81		49
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.39%	256	251		36
Xingtong Chen	0.04%	2500	301		14
Yan Liu	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	2	1.325	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yealimi Noh	1.07%	93	81		66
Youmin Hwang	1.70%	59	36		8
Yujie Liu	0.11%	909	226		58
Yuka Saso	0.22%	455	301		49
Yuri Yoshida	0.84%	119	101		66

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hyo Joo Kim	6.62%	15	21	2.00%	21	-2	Unibet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeeno Thitikul	23.51%	4.3	4.5	1.70%	31	-2	Betfred: 3.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	6.11%	16	21	1.40%	21	-2	Spreadex: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Mi Hyang Lee	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	49	-1	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cassie Porter	0.70%	143	201	0.20%	49	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yan Liu	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	2	13.25	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	18	-1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.