Simulation Results: Founders Cup

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.78%	36	36		12
Aditi Ashok	0.22%	455	226		14
Akie Iwai	1.55%	65	29		27
Albane Valenzuela	0.01%	10000	351		116
Alexa Pano	0.03%	3333	501		88
Aline Krauter	0.00%	10000	401		64
Allisen Corpuz	0.89%	112	101		76
Amy Yang	0.26%	385	126		116
Ana Belac	0.02%	5000	501		116
Andrea Lee	1.47%	68	36		51
Angel Yin	0.07%	1429	81		19
Anna Nordqvist	0.01%	10000	1001		99
Anne Chen	0.00%	10000	501		99
Arpichaya Yubol	0.01%	10000	326		50
Auston Kim	2.09%	48	36		19
Ayaka Furue	2.93%	34	36	0.20%	36	-0.2	Skybet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Azahara Munoz	0.02%	5000	501		99
Bailey Tardy	0.00%	10000	501		66
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000	1001		88
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000	501		138
Brianna Do	0.00%	10000	1001		129
Brooke Matthews	0.17%	588	161		76
Camille Boyd	0.00%	10000	751		76
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.00%	10000	401		5
Carlota Ciganda	0.19%	526	201		99
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.01%	10000	401		88
Carolina Melgrati	0.00%	10000	1001		129
Cassie Porter	0.36%	278	151		5
Celine Borge	0.00%	10000	601		56
Celine Boutier	0.44%	227	126		56
Chella Choi	0.00%	10000	551		99
Chiara Tamburlini	0.02%	5000	181		142
Chisato Iwai	3.32%	30	36	0.60%	19	-0.6	Skybet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cocona Sakurai	0.00%	10000	501		123
Dewi Weber	0.02%	5000	451		99
Dongeun Lee	0.48%	208	126		51
Emma McMyler	0.00%	10000	1001		140
Erica Shepherd	0.01%	10000	501		99
Erika Hara	0.37%	270	101		19
Esther Henseleit	0.55%	182	126		36
Frida Kinhult	0.01%	10000	651		116
Gaby Lopez	0.82%	122	81		5
Gemma Dryburgh	0.04%	2500	401		27
Gina Kim	0.00%	10000	226		66
Grace Kim	0.43%	233	151		45
Gurleen Kaur	0.01%	10000	1001		56
Haeji Kang	0.00%	10000	1251		123
Haeran Ryu	5.08%	20	26	1.30%	5	-0.62678571428571	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000	1001		88
Helen Briem	0.05%	2000	91		36
Hinako Shibuno	0.00%	10000	751		76
Hira Naveed	0.00%	10000	1501		140
Hye-Jin Choi	5.42%	18	23	1.10%	14	-1.1	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	4.05%	25	26	0.20%	1	3.125	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ilhee Lee	0.00%	10000	1501		129
In Gee Chun	0.02%	5000	301		27
Ina Yoon	0.63%	159	126		42
Ingrid Lindblad	0.00%	10000	501		143
Isabella Fierro	0.04%	2500	181		135
Isi Gabsa	0.00%	10000	751		66
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.09%	1111	351		129
Jeeno Thitikul	12.10%	8.3	8		14
Jennifer Kupcho	0.13%	769	151		66
Jenny Bae	0.31%	323	201		123
Jeongeun Lee5	0.00%	10000	501		36
Jeongeun Lee6	0.00%	10000	201		45
Jessica Porvasnik	0.03%	3333	251		123
Jin Hee Im	0.18%	556	151		3
Jing Yan	0.05%	2000	351		76
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.01%	10000	501		19
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.06%	1667	251		99
Juniper Jang	0.00%	10000			129
Karis Davidson	0.13%	769	301		45
Kumkang Park	0.00%	10000	501		99
Laetitia Beck	0.00%	10000	1001		129
Laney Frye	0.01%	10000	451		99
Lauren Coughlin	0.15%	667	126		62
Lauren Hartlage	0.00%	10000	651		138
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000	501		123
Leah John	0.00%	10000	1001		65
Leona Maguire	0.06%	1667	351		99
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	351		53
Lindy Duncan	1.06%	94	91		42
Linn Grant	1.22%	82	56		99
Linnea Strom	0.02%	5000	501		62
Lottie Woad	4.03%	25	26	0.20%	14	-0.2	Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li	0.27%	370	126		56
Lydia Ko	2.89%	35	26		56
Madelene Sagstrom	0.09%	1111	276		76
Maja Stark	0.20%	500	201		88
Manon De Roey	0.04%	2500	501		116
Mao Saigo	0.68%	147	61		27
Mary Liu	0.03%	3333	301		99
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.00%	10000	1251		66
Megan Khang	0.17%	588	181		76
Melanie Green	0.01%	10000	181		88
Michelle Zhang	0.00%	10000	401		116
Mimi Rhodes	0.30%	333	67		88
Minami Katsu	0.25%	400	161		76
Minjee Lee	5.21%	19	23	0.90%	5	-0.48214285714286	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Minji Kang	0.00%	10000	501		36
Miyu Yamashita	3.58%	28	26		5
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.73%	137	81		66
Narin An	0.03%	3333	351		88
Nasa Hataoka	3.09%	32	29		5
Nastasia Nadaud	0.01%	10000	351		27
Nataliya Guseva	0.04%	2500	326		76
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.01%	10000	351		53
Nelly Korda	16.51%	6.1	9	6.10%	2	3.05	Bet365: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.13%	769	251		19
Patty Tavatanakit	0.46%	217	101		99
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	1001		99
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.05%	2000	251		88
Peiyun Chien	0.10%	1000	301		45
Perrine Delacour	0.03%	3333	226		14
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	1001		66
Pornanong Phatlum	0.06%	1667	301		36
Riley Smyth	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Rio Takeda	1.93%	52	36		27
Robyn Choi	0.02%	5000	651		12
Rose Zhang	0.92%	109	41		53
Ruixin Liu	0.01%	10000	251		19
Ryann O'Toole	0.00%	10000	551		27
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	501		56
Sei Young Kim	3.39%	29	26		3
Somi Lee	1.38%	72	67		66
Soo Bin Joo	0.00%	10000	501		27
Sophia Schubert	0.00%	10000	351		88
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.00%	10000	751		116
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.00%	10000	551		123
Victoria Cui	0.00%	10000			66
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.02%	5000	601		45
Weiwei Zhang	0.48%	208	201		99
Xiao-Long Zhong	0.00%	10000			144
Yan Liu	0.34%	294	201		99
Yana Wilson	0.02%	5000	161		88
Yani Tseng	0.02%	5000	501		42
Yealimi Noh	0.07%	1429	201		136
Youmin Hwang	1.54%	65	56
Yu Liu	0.23%	435	151		19
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1001		76
Yuna Nishimura	0.04%	2500	451		27
Yuri Yoshida	0.06%	1667	351		76

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.60%	63	46		28
Aditi Ashok	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	60	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akie Iwai	1.34%	75	41		121
Albane Valenzuela	0.44%	227	176		40
Alexa Pano	0.59%	169	201	0.10%	89	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aline Krauter	0.08%	1250	201		28
Allisen Corpuz	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	60	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Amy Yang	0.76%	132	91		72
Ana Belac	0.49%	204	201		133
Andrea Lee	1.21%	83	46		12
Angel Yin	0.67%	149	76		28
Anna Nordqvist	0.32%	313	301		72
Anne Chen	0.12%	833	201		72
Arpichaya Yubol	0.39%	256	176		28
Auston Kim	1.81%	55	46		60
Ayaka Furue	1.63%	61	46		72
Azahara Munoz	0.44%	227	201		89
Bailey Tardy	0.32%	313	201		109
Benedetta Moresco	0.22%	455	351		109
Briana Chacon	0.21%	476	201		133
Brianna Do	0.25%	400	301		89
Brooke Matthews	0.74%	135	101		40
Camille Boyd	0.14%	714	301		89
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.38%	263	201		28
Carlota Ciganda	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	121	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.45%	222	161		40
Carolina Melgrati	0.11%	909	251		89
Cassie Porter	0.82%	122	101		12
Celine Borge	0.21%	476	251		89
Celine Boutier	1.12%	89	91		72
Chella Choi	0.32%	313	201		127
Chiara Tamburlini	0.46%	217	101		127
Chisato Iwai	1.61%	62	46		72
Cocona Sakurai	0.28%	357	201		109
Dewi Weber	0.38%	263	201		109
Dongeun Lee	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	2	1.075	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emma McMyler	0.15%	667	301		72
Erica Shepherd	0.38%	263	201		121
Erika Hara	1.06%	94	81		12
Esther Henseleit	1.09%	92	91		12
Frida Kinhult	0.37%	270	251		127
Gaby Lopez	1.08%	93	76		6
Gemma Dryburgh	0.47%	213	201		3
Gina Kim	0.31%	323	126		72
Grace Kim	0.88%	114	101		72
Gurleen Kaur	0.33%	303	351		28
Haeji Kang	0.13%	769	351		138
Haeran Ryu	1.93%	52	41		40
Hailee Cooper	0.20%	500	251		12
Helen Briem	0.43%	233	81		109
Hinako Shibuno	0.29%	345	301		72
Hira Naveed	0.18%	556	401		133
Hye-Jin Choi	2.43%	41	34		7
Hyo Joo Kim	2.17%	46	36		1
Ilhee Lee	0.08%	1250	301		89
In Gee Chun	0.50%	200	151		12
Ina Yoon	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	7	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ingrid Lindblad	0.25%	400	251		143
Isabella Fierro	0.56%	179	101		138
Isi Gabsa	0.15%	667	301		109
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	109	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeeno Thitikul	3.20%	31	19		60
Jennifer Kupcho	0.62%	161	101		89
Jenny Bae	1.02%	98	101		89
Jeongeun Lee5	0.34%	294	251		40
Jeongeun Lee6	0.27%	370	101		40
Jessica Porvasnik	0.44%	227	141		72
Jin Hee Im	0.84%	119	101		3
Jing Yan	0.53%	189	151		127
Jiwon Jeon	0.50%	200			12
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.35%	286	201		40
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.64%	156	126		12
Juniper Jang	0.03%	3333	276		138
Karis Davidson	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	28	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kumkang Park	0.27%	370	201		109
Laetitia Beck	0.29%	345	251		109
Laney Frye	0.40%	250	201		127
Lauren Coughlin	0.68%	147	91		60
Lauren Hartlage	0.21%	476	181		127
Lauren Walsh	0.27%	370	201		89
Leah John	0.08%	1250	301		40
Leona Maguire	0.67%	149	161		89
Lilia Vu	0.34%	294	176		12
Lindy Duncan	1.40%	71	76	0.10%	12	-0.1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linn Grant	1.42%	70	56		89
Linnea Strom	0.40%	250	201		89
Lottie Woad	2.30%	43	36		60
Lucy Li	0.78%	128	81		60
Lydia Ko	1.92%	52	41		40
Madelene Sagstrom	0.70%	143	151		89
Maja Stark	0.70%	143	126		72
Manon De Roey	0.49%	204	181		89
Mao Saigo	1.22%	82	61		7
Mary Liu	0.56%	179	151		89
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.22%	455	301		28
Megan Khang	0.71%	141	101		109
Melanie Green	0.35%	286	101		138
Michelle Zhang	0.08%	1250	171		121
Mimi Rhodes	0.99%	101	67		60
Minami Katsu	0.68%	147	101		72
Minjee Lee	2.43%	41	34		7
Minji Kang	0.29%	345	201		40
Miyu Yamashita	2.09%	48	41		60
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.05%	2000	301		72
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.03%	97	76		72
Narin An	0.44%	227	151		133
Nasa Hataoka	2.00%	50	46		12
Nastasia Nadaud	0.40%	250	151		7
Nataliya Guseva	0.60%	167	176		40
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.45%	222	151		60
Nelly Korda	2.98%	34	21		28
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.83%	120	126		28
Patty Tavatanakit	0.91%	110	81		109
Paula Reto	0.18%	556	301		121
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.49%	204	126		60
Peiyun Chien	0.56%	179	141		40
Perrine Delacour	0.57%	175	126		40
Polly Mack	0.15%	667	301		3
Pornanong Phatlum	0.50%	200	151		12
Riley Smyth	0.11%	909	251		133
Rio Takeda	1.35%	74	46		40
Robyn Choi	0.42%	238	251		40
Rose Zhang	1.31%	76	46		40
Ruixin Liu	0.37%	270	126		12
Ryann O'Toole	0.19%	526	251		12
Saki Baba	0.32%	313	201		60
Sei Young Kim	1.61%	62	41		89
Somi Lee	1.57%	64	61		40
Soo Bin Joo	0.29%	345	201		12
Sophia Schubert	0.29%	345	176		28
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.21%	476	301		121
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.26%	385	251		72
Victoria Cui	0.03%	3333	751		40
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	40	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang	0.88%	114	101		109
Xiao-Long Zhong	0.02%	5000	351		144
Yan Liu	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yana Wilson	0.33%	303	101		89
Yani Tseng	0.41%	244	201		40
Yealimi Noh	0.52%	192	101		138
Yu Liu	0.80%	125	101		89
Yuka Saso	0.22%	455	301		12
Yuna Nishimura	0.48%	208	201		28
Yuri Yoshida	0.48%	208	176		72

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Nelly Korda	16.51%	6.1	9	6.10%	2	1	Bet365: 8/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Haeran Ryu	5.08%	20	26	1.30%	5	-0.96428571428571	Unibet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	5.42%	18	23	1.10%	14	-2	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Lindy Duncan	1.40%	71	76	0.10%	12	-1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Allisen Corpuz	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	60	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Dongeun Lee	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	2	10.75	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ina Yoon	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	7	-1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yan Liu	1.04%	96	101	0.10%	89	-1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Aditi Ashok	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	60	-1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.