Simulation Results: Founders Cup

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adela Cernousek 0.08% 1250 226 78
Aditi Ashok 0.21% 476 401 34
Akie Iwai 1.19% 84 41 105
Albane Valenzuela 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 13 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alena Sharp 0.21% 476 451 34
Alexa Pano 0.32% 313 226 105
Alexandra Swayne 0.01% 10000 1501 78
Allisen Corpuz 1.63% 61 76 0.30% 23 -0.3 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Belac 0.05% 2000 601 68
Andrea Lee 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 89 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Yin 1.87% 53 51 10
Ariya Jutanugarn 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 48 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ashleigh Buhai 1.19% 84 67 11
Auston Kim 0.44% 227 101 109
Ayaka Furue 2.90% 34 29 13
Azahara Munoz 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 78 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bailey Tardy 0.34% 294 251 111
Benedetta Moresco 0.02% 5000 751 23
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.59% 169 126 94
Brittany Lincicome 0.09% 1111 1001 68
Brooke M. Henderson 2.90% 34 34 94
Brooke Matthews 0.05% 2000 251 109
Caley McGinty 0.01% 10000 68
Caroline Inglis 0.13% 769 501 59
Caroline Masson 0.21% 476 601 94
Cassie Porter 0.03% 3333 301 118
Celine Borge 0.22% 455 351 78
Celine Boutier 4.44% 23 29 1.00% 7 -1 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.44% 227 201 78
Charley Hull 4.19% 24 23 19
Cheyenne Knight 0.48% 208 176 120
Chisato Iwai 0.78% 128 96 94
Dani Holmqvist 0.03% 3333 2001 111
Danielle Kang 0.06% 1667 451 68
Dewi Weber 0.07% 1429 1001 23
Elizabeth Szokol 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 45 -0.1 VBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.26% 385 251 45
Eun-Hee Ji 0.06% 1667 751 94
Fatima Fernandez Cano 0.06% 1667 251 68
Fiona Xu 0.03% 3333 601 48
Frida Kinhult 0.09% 1111 751 62
Gabriela Ruffels 0.78% 128 226 0.30% 39 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gaby Lopez 0.98% 102 101 62
Gemma Dryburgh 0.33% 303 301 39
Georgia Hall 0.53% 189 176 68
Gigi Stoll 0.01% 10000 1501 34
Gurleen Kaur 0.11% 909 501 39
Hannah Green 3.05% 33 46 0.90% 4 2.775 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hinako Shibuno 0.09% 1111 401 67
Hira Naveed 0.08% 1250 601 56
Hyo Joo Kim 2.41% 41 46 0.20% 28 -0.2 Unibet: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hyo Joon Jang 0.36% 278 301 66
In Gee Chun 0.37% 270 251 89
Ina Yoon 1.67% 60 34 94
Ingrid Lindblad 0.22% 455 81 68
Jennifer Kupcho 1.36% 74 91 0.30% 34 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Bae 0.03% 3333 401 78
Jeongeun Lee6 0.10% 1000 601 13
Jessica Porvasnik 0.02% 5000 751 78
Jin Hee Im 1.72% 58 56 4
Jin Young Ko 3.74% 27 15 2
Jiwon Jeon 0.12% 833 751 56
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.23% 435 351 113
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.42% 238 111 105
Karis Davidson 0.13% 769 451 94
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.01% 10000 1001 34
Kristen Gillman 0.34% 294 251 28
Kum-Kang Park 0.05% 2000 751 78
Lauren Coughlin 2.40% 42 36 19
Lauren Hartlage 0.03% 3333 751 78
Lauren Stephenson 0.08% 1250 251 94
Leona Maguire 0.74% 135 71 19
Lexi Thompson 0.81% 123 126 13
Lindy Duncan 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 78 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linnea Strom 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lydia Ko 6.69% 15 9 48
Madelene Sagstrom 0.35% 286 276 94
Madison Young 0.02% 5000 751 58
Maja Stark 0.64% 156 121 105
Manon De Roey 0.44% 227 91 89
Mao Saigo 1.46% 68 67 28
Mariel Galdiano 0.03% 3333 751 115
Mary Liu 0.06% 1667 1001 28
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.05% 2000 1001 89
Megan Khang 2.21% 45 46 3
Mi Hyang Lee 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 48 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Minami Katsu 0.43% 233 226 7
Minjee Lee 2.69% 37 23 28
Miyu Yamashita 3.52% 28 4
Morgane Metraux 0.11% 909 501 28
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.23% 435 401 48
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.07% 93 101 0.10% 13 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka 1.75% 57 46 11
Nataliya Guseva 1.25% 80 67 39
Nelly Korda 11.50% 8.7 5.5 7
Nicole Broch Estrup 0.49% 204 176 113
Pajaree Anannarukarn 1.21% 83 101 0.20% 89 -0.2 888sport: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paula Reto 0.18% 556 501 19
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.31% 323 111 119
Rio Takeda 3.79% 26 23 45
Sarah Schmelzel 0.80% 125 226 0.40% 23 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Savannah Katarina Grewal 0.16% 625
Somi Lee 0.46% 217 13
Soo Bin Joo 0.03% 3333 751 39
Sophia Popov 0.04% 2500 1001 59
Ssu-Chia Cheng 0.06% 1667 751 62
Stacy Lewis 0.11% 909 601 78
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.25% 400 226 48
Sung Hyun Park 0.04% 2500 751 68
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.27% 370 276 48
Weiwei Zhang 1.33% 75 201 0.80% 94 -0.8 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Xiaowen Yin 0.11% 909 601 48
Yan Liu 0.19% 526 451 62
Yealimi Noh 1.12% 89 76 1
Yu Liu 0.19% 526 351 94
Yuka Saso 0.47% 213 161 59
Yuna Nishimura 0.38% 263 301 68
Yuri Yoshida 0.27% 370 151 23

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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