Simulation Results: Ford Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.03% 49 41 13
Adela Cernousek 0.03% 3333 601 136
Aditi Ashok 0.10% 1000 501 85
Akie Iwai 1.36% 74 46 44
Albane Valenzuela 0.61% 164 251 0.20% 85 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alena Sharp 0.21% 476 501 75
Alexa Pano 0.05% 2000 751 50
Allisen Corpuz 1.16% 86 61 3
Amanda Doherty 0.08% 1250 601 56
Amy Yang 0.95% 105 91 56
Ana Belac 0.05% 2000 1001 75
Angel Yin 2.54% 39 36 13
Anna Nordqvist 0.16% 625 501 103
Ariya Jutanugarn 0.87% 115 81 133
Ashleigh Buhai 1.04% 96 91 44
Auston Kim 0.49% 204 151 49
Ayaka Furue 3.15% 32 19 17
Azahara Munoz 0.07% 1429 1001 68
Bailey Tardy 0.09% 1111 501 54
Benedetta Moresco 0.09% 1111 751 103
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.12% 833 276 136
Brittany Altomare 0.02% 5000 1501 120
Brooke M. Henderson 1.07% 93 67 27
Brooke Matthews 0.07% 1429 401 85
Caley McGinty 0.03% 3333 2001 95
Carlota Ciganda 0.96% 104 81 54
Caroline Inglis 0.09% 1111 1001 125
Cassie Porter 0.13% 769 251 27
Celine Borge 0.08% 1250 751 103
Celine Boutier 1.59% 63 51 27
Charley Hull 3.52% 28 23 11
Cheyenne Knight 0.19% 526 501 103
Chisato Iwai 1.15% 87 41 22
Cristie Kerr 0.02% 5000 2001 111
Dani Holmqvist 0.01% 10000 2001 64
Danielle Kang 0.02% 5000 1001 131
Dewi Weber 0.21% 476 5001 0.20% 62 -0.2 William Hill: 5000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elizabeth Szokol 0.26% 385 751 0.10% 33 -0.1 VBet: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.26% 385 301 74
Esther Henseleit 0.28% 357 251 44
Eun-Hee Ji 0.05% 2000 1001 136
Fatima Fernandez Cano 0.05% 2000 401 95
Fiona Xu 0.03% 3333 1001 103
Frida Kinhult 0.06% 1667 751 50
Gabby Barker 0.00% 10000 143
Gabriela Ruffels 0.29% 345 351 75
Gaby Lopez 1.05% 95 61 6
Gemma Dryburgh 0.21% 476 351 85
Georgia Hall 0.68% 147 126 85
Gigi Stoll 0.04% 2500 751 33
Grace Kim 0.25% 400 251 95
Gurleen Kaur 0.15% 667 501 131
Haeran Ryu 3.04% 33 23 17
Hannah Green 2.32% 43 41 44
Hinako Shibuno 0.18% 556 351 120
Hira Naveed 0.07% 1429 501 64
Hye-Jin Choi 1.53% 65 61 17
Hyo Joo Kim 1.32% 76 51 1
Hyo Joon Jang 0.10% 1000 601 95
In Gee Chun 0.13% 769 501 72
Ina Yoon 1.05% 95 51 22
Ingrid Lindblad 0.18% 556 176 38
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.12% 833 601 56
Jeeno Thitikul 7.15% 14 9 4
Jennifer Kupcho 1.39% 72 71 38
Jenny Bae 0.03% 3333 751 136
Jenny Shin 0.44% 227 251 68
Jeongeun Lee5 0.10% 1000 751 75
Jeongeun Lee6 0.10% 1000 501 133
Jessica Porvasnik 0.02% 5000 1001 125
Jin Hee Im 2.32% 43 46 0.10% 75 -0.1 BetVictor: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jin Young Ko 2.44% 41 23 111
Jing Yan 0.23% 435 401 95
Jiwon Jeon 0.12% 833 751 111
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.05% 2000 601 120
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.04% 2500 351 73
Karis Davidson 0.06% 1667 1001 75
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.01% 10000 1001 50
Kristen Gillman 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 85 -0.1 BetVictor: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kumkang Park 0.01% 10000 1001 85
Lauren Coughlin 1.52% 66 67 44
Lauren Hartlage 0.02% 5000 1001 56
Lauren Morris 0.00% 10000 111
Leona Maguire 0.63% 159 151 68
Lexi Thompson 1.10% 91 81 38
Lilia Vu 0.58% 172 91 2
Lindsey Weaver-Wright 0.09% 1111 501
Lindy Duncan 0.37% 270 251 5
Linn Grant 1.59% 63 41 111
Linnea Strom 0.06% 1667 501 141
Lucy Li 0.32% 313 201 125
Lydia Ko 3.44% 29 15 6
Madelene Sagstrom 0.13% 769 401 75
Madison Young 0.04% 2500 751 64
Maja Stark 0.29% 345 251 125
Manon De Roey 0.30% 333 151 85
Mao Saigo 1.54% 65 46 133
Maria Fassi 0.03% 3333 1501 142
Mariel Galdiano 0.02% 5000 1001 120
Mary Liu 0.04% 2500 1001 50
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.04% 2500 2001 136
Megan Khang 2.50% 40 46 0.30% 111 -0.3 BetVictor: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mi Hyang Lee 0.45% 222 201 6
Minami Katsu 0.85% 118 91 56
Miyu Yamashita 2.71% 37 29 120
Morgane Metraux 0.10% 1000 501 111
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.32% 313 201 71
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.72% 58 61 0.10% 13 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Narin An 0.37% 270 151 75
Nasa Hataoka 2.10% 48 36 17
Nataliya Guseva 0.23% 435 201 22
Nelly Korda 6.96% 14 10 22
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.65% 154 151 38
Patty Tavatanakit 0.83% 120 61 38
Paula Reto 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 64 -0.1 BetVictor: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.08% 1250 301 27
Peiyun Chien 0.13% 769 601 27
Polly Mack 0.05% 2000 1001 75
Pornanong Phatlum 0.14% 714 751 125
Rio Takeda 3.69% 27 23 85
Rose Zhang 1.40% 71 61 95
Ruoning Yin 1.53% 65 31 56
Ryann O'Toole 0.19% 526 501 111
Saki Baba 0.16% 625 401 6
Sarah Kemp 0.12% 833 501 62
Sarah Schmelzel 0.69% 145 126 17
Savannah Grewal 0.04% 2500 601 38
Sei Young Kim 0.61% 164 61 22
Somi Lee 0.93% 108 111 27
Soo Bin Joo 0.03% 3333 1001 75
Ssu-Chia Cheng 0.04% 2500 1001 125
Stacy Lewis 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 85 -0.1 QuinnBet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.23% 435 351 13
Sung Hyun Park 0.02% 5000 1001 103
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.17% 588 601 95
Weiwei Zhang 0.12% 833 501 33
Xiaowen Yin 0.10% 1000 751 111
Yahui Zhang 0.03% 3333 501 11
Yan Liu 0.17% 588 501 103
Yealimi Noh 2.29% 44 31 6
Yu Liu 0.13% 769 501 33
Yuka Saso 0.32% 313 126 103
Yuna Nishimura 0.11% 909 601 95
Yuri Yoshida 1.08% 93 81 33

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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