Simulation Results: Ford Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	3.25%	31	31		100
Aditi Ashok	0.33%	303	181		139
Akie Iwai	1.33%	75	31		50
Albane Valenzuela	0.01%	10000	751		33
Alexa Pano	0.01%	10000	1001		77
Aline Krauter	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Allisen Corpuz	0.81%	123	91		77
Amanda Doherty	0.00%	10000			111
Amy Yang	0.10%	1000	301		60
Ana Belac	0.01%	10000	651		100
Angel Yin	0.14%	714	91		33
Anna Nordqvist	0.01%	10000	2501		15
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.63%	159	67		77
Arpichaya Yubol	0.01%	10000	501		77
Asterisk Talley	0.00%	10000	301		29
Austin Ernst	0.00%	10000	1501		70
Auston Kim	1.77%	56	46		77
Ayaka Furue	2.88%	35	36	0.10%	33	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bailey Tardy	0.01%	10000	651		91
Benedetta Moresco	0.00%	10000	1501		53
Briana Chacon	0.00%	10000	1251		70
Brooke M. Henderson	0.97%	103	56		53
Brooke Matthews	0.11%	909	251		100
Camille Boyd	0.00%	10000	1501		119
Carla Bernat	0.00%	10000	476		119
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.24%	417	201		42
Carlota Ciganda	0.19%	526	251		111
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.01%	10000	651		91
Carolina Melgrati	0.00%	10000	1251		91
Cassie Porter	0.38%	263	101		13
Celine Borge	0.00%	10000	651		91
Celine Boutier	0.41%	244	181		53
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.10%	1000	276
Charley Hull	3.18%	31	21		91
Chella Choi	0.00%	10000	801		42
Chiara Tamburlini	0.00%	10000	351		25
Chisato Iwai	2.89%	35	36	0.10%	9	-0.1	Star Sports: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cocona Sakurai	0.00%	10000	1251		69
Dewi Weber	0.01%	10000	1001		9
Dongeun Lee	0.32%	313	151		100
Emma McMyler	0.00%	10000	1501		53
Erica Shepherd	0.00%	10000	751		60
Erika Hara	0.52%	192	81		144
Esther Henseleit	0.58%	172	126		9
Frida Kinhult	0.01%	10000	651		6
Gabriela Ruffels	0.01%	10000	376		100
Gaby Lopez	1.56%	64	41		25
Gemma Dryburgh	0.05%	2000	401		132
Gina Kim	0.00%	10000	501		132
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	1001		125
Haeji Kang	0.00%	10000	2001		139
Haeran Ryu	5.42%	18	21	0.70%	29	-0.7	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hailee Cooper	0.00%	10000	1001		143
Helen Briem	0.18%	556	126		91
Hinako Shibuno	0.01%	10000	1501		132
Hye-Jin Choi	4.98%	20	31	1.80%	42	-1.8	Star Sports: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	7.76%	13	21	3.10%	1	34.875	Spreadex: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ilhee Lee	0.00%	10000	2001		15
In Gee Chun	0.25%	400	251		5
Ina Yoon	0.63%	159	151		6
Ingrid Lindblad	0.00%	10000	1251		139
Isi Gabsa	0.00%	10000	1251		70
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.02%	5000	601		119
Jeeno Thitikul	12.78%	7.8	9	1.90%	50	-1.9	Bet365: 7.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho	0.12%	833	201		42
Jenny Bae	0.08%	1250	301		25
Jenny Shin	0.29%	345	276		53
Jeongeun Lee5	0.04%	2500	651		53
Jessica Korda	0.01%	10000	751		132
Jin Hee Im	0.39%	256	126		29
Jing Yan	0.02%	5000	651		15
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.03%	3333	426		77
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.03%	3333	276		15
Juniper Jang	0.00%	10000			139
Karis Davidson	0.11%	909	251		60
Kate Villegas	0.00%	10000			125
Kumkang Park	0.01%	10000	1251		91
Laetitia Beck	0.00%	10000	1501		125
Laney Frye	0.01%	10000	651		33
Lauren Coughlin	0.10%	1000	161		65
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000	801		111
Leah John	0.00%	10000	1501		100
Leona Maguire	0.02%	5000	501		77
Lexi Thompson	0.04%	2500	251		119
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	201		77
Lindy Duncan	1.21%	83	101	0.20%	15	-0.2	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linn Grant	0.62%	161	76		100
Linnea Strom	0.01%	10000	651		70
Lizette Salas	0.00%	10000	1001		132
Lottie Woad	4.20%	24	31	1.00%	33	-1	Spreadex: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lydia Ko	2.30%	43	36		4
Madelene Sagstrom	0.05%	2000	401		42
Maja Stark	0.11%	909	251		76
Manon De Roey	0.03%	3333	751		15
Mao Saigo	0.65%	154	71		111
Mary Liu	0.02%	5000	651		91
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.01%	10000	1501		77
Megan Khang	0.15%	667	251		50
Melanie Green	0.01%	10000	351		42
Mimi Rhodes	0.13%	769	126		6
Minami Katsu	0.19%	526	151		3
Minji Kang	0.01%	10000	551		65
Miyu Yamashita	3.57%	28	26		77
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	1501		125
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.73%	137	101		100
Narin An	0.08%	1250	551		33
Nasa Hataoka	4.10%	24	26	0.30%	33	-0.3	Skybet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
Nastasia Nadaud	0.05%	2000	351		14
Nataliya Guseva	0.04%	2500	501		100
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.02%	5000	351		60
Nelly Korda	14.47%	6.9	8	2.30%	2	0.46	Skybet: 7/1, 5pl, 1/5
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.19%	526	251		111
Patty Tavatanakit	0.28%	357	126		138
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	1251		111
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.04%	2500	351		119
Peiyun Chien	0.09%	1111	351		15
Perrine Delacour	0.08%	1250	251		65
Polly Mack	0.00%	10000	1001		75
Riley Smyth	0.00%	10000	1501		91
Rio Takeda	1.68%	60	41		42
Robyn Choi	0.08%	1250	426		74
Rose Zhang	0.42%	238	67		9
Ruixin Liu	0.07%	1429	176		60
Ruoning Yin	1.04%	96	71		33
Ryann O'Toole	0.06%	1667	501		25
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	476		65
Sei Young Kim	3.87%	26	21		77
Somi Lee	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	15	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soo Bin Joo	0.02%	5000	476		77
Sophia Schubert	0.01%	10000	651		15
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.00%	10000	1251		125
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.00%	10000	601		132
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.00%	10000	1251		100
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.04%	2500	426		119
Weiwei Zhang	0.09%	1111	326		29
Yan Liu	0.15%	667	251		42
Yana Wilson	0.01%	10000	326		15
Yani Tseng	0.03%	3333	651		53
Yealimi Noh	0.04%	2500	401		100
Youmin Hwang	1.19%	84	71		77
Yu Liu	0.27%	370	141		111
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1501		111
Yuna Nishimura	0.08%	1250	351		77
Yuri Yoshida	0.04%	2500	476		33

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.60%	63	51		92
Aditi Ashok	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	108	-0.1	BetMGM: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Akie Iwai	1.53%	65	46		10
Albane Valenzuela	0.28%	357	251		53
Alexa Pano	0.32%	313	301		75
Aline Krauter	0.14%	714	401		108
Allisen Corpuz	1.29%	78	71		108
Amanda Doherty	0.17%	588			108
Amy Yang	0.77%	130	161	0.10%	34	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ana Belac	0.29%	345	226		92
Angel Yin	0.73%	137	67		75
Anna Nordqvist	0.34%	294	301		21
Ariya Jutanugarn	1.16%	86	56		53
Arpichaya Yubol	0.44%	227	161		75
Asterisk Talley	0.14%	714	126		53
Austin Ernst	0.05%	2000	401		108
Auston Kim	1.39%	72	51		53
Ayaka Furue	1.54%	65	51		21
Bailey Tardy	0.35%	286	251		108
Benedetta Moresco	0.17%	588	401		108
Briana Chacon	0.18%	556	351		53
Brooke M. Henderson	1.13%	88	61		53
Brooke Matthews	0.63%	159	141		92
Camille Boyd	0.17%	588	351		136
Carla Bernat	0.23%	435	176		108
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.75%	133	111		34
Carlota Ciganda	0.84%	119	126		75
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.33%	303	201		131
Carolina Melgrati	0.08%	1250	401		92
Cassie Porter	1.09%	92	91		75
Celine Borge	0.37%	270	251		34
Celine Boutier	0.89%	112	111		108
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.56%	179	161
Charley Hull	1.69%	59	36		92
Chella Choi	0.24%	417	301		75
Chiara Tamburlini	0.25%	400	151		53
Chisato Iwai	1.58%	63	51		34
Cocona Sakurai	0.21%	476	351		10
Dewi Weber	0.42%	238	251		10
Dongeun Lee	0.94%	106	81		92
Emma McMyler	0.11%	909	351		10
Erica Shepherd	0.23%	435	251		53
Erika Hara	0.92%	109	67		124
Esther Henseleit	1.12%	89	67		6
Frida Kinhult	0.30%	333	251		4
Gabriela Ruffels	0.33%	303	176		108
Gaby Lopez	1.31%	76	56		53
Gemma Dryburgh	0.46%	217	176		92
Gina Kim	0.25%	400	176		75
Gurleen Kaur	0.32%	313	301		136
Haeji Kang	0.12%	833	501		144
Haeran Ryu	2.42%	41	34		10
Hailee Cooper	0.21%	476	301		139
Helen Briem	0.68%	147	91		34
Hinako Shibuno	0.32%	313	251		142
Hye-Jin Choi	1.99%	50	46		34
Hyo Joo Kim	2.65%	38	34		2
Ilhee Lee	0.13%	769	501		53
In Gee Chun	0.89%	112	111		34
Ina Yoon	1.02%	98	91		21
Ingrid Lindblad	0.17%	588	351		139
Isi Gabsa	0.25%	400	401		53
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.43%	233	226		92
Jeeno Thitikul	2.86%	35	19		53
Jennifer Kupcho	0.77%	130	101		75
Jenny Bae	0.60%	167	176		10
Jenny Shin	0.74%	135	176	0.20%	21	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee5	0.47%	213	201		21
Jessica Korda	0.34%	294	301		108
Jin Hee Im	0.86%	116	91		53
Jing Yan	0.35%	286	226		34
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.45%	222	176		92
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.52%	192	161		53
Juniper Jang	0.05%	2000			124
Karis Davidson	0.60%	167	161		53
Kate Villegas	0.04%	2500			124
Kumkang Park	0.24%	417	301		124
Laetitia Beck	0.16%	625	401		131
Laney Frye	0.28%	357	251		21
Lauren Coughlin	0.74%	135	101		75
Lauren Walsh	0.20%	500	251		92
Leah John	0.04%	2500	351		75
Leona Maguire	0.46%	217	176		34
Lexi Thompson	0.53%	189	101		136
Lilia Vu	0.36%	278	126		108
Lindy Duncan	1.25%	80	81		75
Linn Grant	1.16%	86	67		34
Linnea Strom	0.33%	303	226		92
Lizette Salas	0.20%	500	401		131
Lottie Woad	2.20%	45	41		34
Lydia Ko	1.75%	57	46		1
Madelene Sagstrom	0.60%	167	161		75
Maja Stark	0.62%	161	141		34
Manon De Roey	0.44%	227	301	0.10%	6	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mao Saigo	1.01%	99	71		92
Mary Liu	0.47%	213	161		53
Maude-Aimee Leblanc	0.37%	270	301		53
Megan Khang	0.79%	127	111		21
Melanie Green	0.40%	250	126		53
Mimi Rhodes	0.72%	139	81		21
Minami Katsu	0.73%	137	111		6
Minji Kang	0.42%	238	201		53
Miyu Yamashita	2.08%	48	34		92
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.05%	2000	401		124
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	1.18%	85	81		108
Narin An	0.76%	132	161	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka	1.81%	55	36		34
Nastasia Nadaud	0.58%	172	161		10
Nataliya Guseva	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	34	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Natasha Andrea Oon	0.51%	196	111		21
Nelly Korda	3.39%	29	19		3
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.85%	118	111		34
Patty Tavatanakit	0.96%	104	91		142
Paula Reto	0.26%	385	301		108
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.53%	189	161		92
Peiyun Chien	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	6	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Perrine Delacour	0.71%	141	101		75
Polly Mack	0.15%	667	301		92
Riley Smyth	0.11%	909	401		53
Rio Takeda	1.33%	75	51		10
Robyn Choi	0.59%	169	176		34
Rose Zhang	1.03%	97	67		34
Ruixin Liu	0.53%	189	111		10
Ruoning Yin	1.10%	91	71		53
Ryann O'Toole	0.55%	182	226	0.10%	34	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Saki Baba	0.42%	238	161		34
Sei Young Kim	1.78%	56	34		75
Somi Lee	1.42%	70	71		10
Soo Bin Joo	0.47%	213	161		131
Sophia Schubert	0.38%	263	251		10
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.16%	625	401		108
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.17%	588	251		139
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.25%	400	301		92
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	108	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang	0.71%	141	161	0.10%	4	1.95	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yan Liu	0.63%	159	161		75
Yana Wilson	0.27%	370	151		21
Yani Tseng	0.40%	250	226		21
Yealimi Noh	0.54%	185	126		53
Youmin Hwang	1.38%	72	51		75
Yu Liu	0.91%	110	91		131
Yuka Saso	0.18%	556	351		75
Yuna Nishimura	0.57%	175	176		124
Yuri Yoshida	0.47%	213	201		21

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hyo Joo Kim	7.76%	13	21	3.10%	1	22.5	Spreadex: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Nelly Korda	14.47%	6.9	8	2.30%	2	0.4	Skybet: 7/1, 5pl, 1/5
WIN: Jeeno Thitikul	12.78%	7.8	9	1.90%	50	-2	Bet365: 7.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Shin	0.74%	135	176	0.20%	21	-1	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Aditi Ashok	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	108	-1	BetMGM: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Amy Yang	0.77%	130	161	0.10%	34	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Narin An	0.76%	132	161	0.10%	21	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Peiyun Chien	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	6	-1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Weiwei Zhang	0.71%	141	161	0.10%	4	19.5	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.