Simulation Results: FM Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 0.69% 145 61 24
Aditi Ashok 0.09% 1111 226 32
Akie Iwai 3.15% 32 26 24
Alexa Pano 0.00% 10000 111 96
Aline Krauter 0.00% 10000 751 130
Allisen Corpuz 0.24% 417 161 20
Amanda Doherty 0.03% 3333 401 69
Amelie Zalsman 0.00% 10000 1001 119
Amy Yang 0.16% 625 226 108
Andrea Lee 1.70% 59 46 4
Angel Yin 1.33% 75 56 69
Anna Nordqvist 0.03% 3333 751 119
Ariya Jutanugarn 1.81% 55 36 35
Arpichaya Yubol 0.09% 1111 301 119
Ashleigh Buhai 0.08% 1250 251 82
Auston Kim 0.12% 833 201 45
Ayaka Furue 0.51% 196 61 13
Azahara Munoz 0.02% 5000 751 45
Bailey Tardy 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Benedetta Moresco 0.09% 1111 226 82
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.01% 10000 751 53
Brianna Do 0.00% 10000 751 75
Brittany Altomare 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Brittany Lincicome 0.00% 10000 751 135
Bronte Law 0.00% 10000 751 82
Brooke M. Henderson 2.67% 37 34 15
Brooke Matthews 0.02% 5000 501 15
Caley McGinty 0.00% 10000 1001 7
Carlota Ciganda 0.30% 333 151 82
Caroline Inglis 0.03% 3333 401 124
Caroline Masson 0.02% 5000 351 65
Cassie Porter 0.04% 2500 276 32
Celine Borge 0.06% 1667 226 7
Celine Boutier 2.67% 37 36 45
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.22% 455 151 75
Chisato Iwai 0.97% 103 56 13
Danielle Kang 0.00% 10000 2001 82
Dewi Weber 0.02% 5000 301 74
Elizabeth Szokol 0.00% 10000 501 96
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.08% 1250 251 75
Esther Henseleit 0.91% 110 51 96
Eun-Hee Ji 0.00% 10000 2001 108
Fiona Xu 0.00% 10000 1501 124
Frida Kinhult 0.02% 5000 501 142
Gabriela Ruffels 0.11% 909 176 45
Gaby Lopez 1.24% 81 71 40
Gemma Dryburgh 0.07% 1429 501 35
Gigi Stoll 0.00% 10000 1501 96
Grace Kim 0.46% 217 101 82
Gurleen Kaur 0.03% 3333 401 69
Haeji Kang 0.00% 10000 1501 138
Haeran Ryu 2.46% 41 23 28
Hannah Green 0.10% 1000 201 28
Hinako Shibuno 0.01% 10000 601 82
Hira Naveed 0.00% 10000 751 119
Hye-Jin Choi 3.31% 30 36 0.50% 7 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joon Jang 0.00% 10000 1001 138
Ilhee Lee 0.00% 10000 501 82
Ina Yoon 0.66% 152 126 45
Ingrid Lindblad 0.45% 222 91 58
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.04% 2500 401 96
Jeeno Thitikul 12.84% 7.8 11 4.10% 2 3.075 Ladbrokes: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho 0.93% 108 51 75
Jenny Bae 0.07% 1429 226 35
Jenny Shin 0.34% 294 151 58
Jeongeun Lee5 0.08% 1250 226 40
Jeongeun Lee6 0.01% 10000 601 20
Jessica Porvasnik 0.00% 10000 1501 130
Jin Hee Im 0.80% 125 67 5
Jin Young Ko 1.02% 98 41 28
Jiwon Jeon 0.00% 10000 1501 82
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.01% 10000 601 45
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.02% 5000 301 28
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.01% 10000 751 130
Kristen Gillman 0.10% 1000 301 108
Kumkang Park 0.00% 10000 601 7
Lauren Coughlin 1.85% 54 51 53
Lauren Hartlage 0.00% 10000 751 82
Lauren Morris 0.00% 10000 2501 68
Leona Maguire 0.33% 303 81 119
Lexi Thompson 0.09% 1111 111 24
Lilia Vu 0.01% 10000 301 75
Lindy Duncan 0.42% 238 141 82
Linn Grant 1.66% 60 46 65
Linnea Strom 0.00% 10000 751 130
Lottie Woad 7.96% 13 21 3.40% 15 -3.4 Bresbet: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li 0.10% 1000 226 108
Madelene Sagstrom 0.17% 588 151 15
Madison Young 0.00% 10000 1501 45
Maja Stark 0.03% 3333 276 96
Manon De Roey 0.24% 417 151 96
Mao Saigo 4.53% 22 23 0.20% 45 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mariel Galdiano 0.00% 10000 751 96
Mary Liu 0.03% 3333 751 108
Megan Khang 2.94% 34 29 24
Megha Ganne 0.00% 10000 126 53
Mi Hyang Lee 0.44% 227 126 32
Minami Katsu 0.41% 244 101 53
Minjee Lee 10.01% 10 13 2.50% 20 -2.5 Bet365: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miranda Wang 0.04% 2500 351 1
Mirim Lee 0.00% 10000 2001 69
Miyu Yamashita 4.97% 20 23 0.70% 7 -0.7 Betfred: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Morgane Metraux 0.01% 10000 1001 124
Muni He 0.00% 10000 751 58
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 0.61% 164 126 15
Narin An 0.20% 500 176 82
Nasa Hataoka 0.99% 101 67 7
Nataliya Guseva 0.02% 5000 601 35
Nelly Korda 8.03% 12 13 0.40% 35 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.51% 196 151 75
Patty Tavatanakit 0.19% 526 91 124
Paula Reto 0.03% 3333 401 138
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.01% 10000 501 108
Peiyun Chien 0.13% 769 276 96
Perrine Delacour 0.24% 417 226 142
Polly Mack 0.00% 10000 751 53
Pornanong Phatlum 0.01% 10000 501 69
Rio Takeda 3.65% 27 21 20
Robyn Choi 0.17% 588 176 108
Rose Zhang 0.26% 385 81 5
Ruixin Liu 0.07% 1429 251 135
Ryann O'Toole 0.01% 10000 751 135
Saki Baba 0.04% 2500 501 40
Sarah Schmelzel 0.58% 172 111 75
Savannah Grewal 0.00% 10000 751 96
Sei Young Kim 1.63% 61 41 3
Somi Lee 1.79% 56 36 108
Soo Bin Joo 0.01% 10000 401 40
Ssu-Chia Cheng 0.00% 10000 1001 144
Stacy Lewis 0.00% 10000 751 138
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.29% 345 91 96
Stephanie Meadow 0.00% 10000 1001 82
Sung Hyun Park 0.02% 5000 351 65
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.19% 526 251 58
Weiwei Zhang 0.01% 10000 751 58
Wichanee Meechai 0.00% 10000 1001 130
Xiaowen Yin 0.01% 10000 601 96
Yahui Zhang 0.06% 1667 351 58
Yan Liu 0.06% 1667 401 58
Yealimi Noh 0.39% 256 151 108
Yu Liu 0.03% 3333 501 40
Yuka Saso 0.00% 10000 1001 124
Yuna Nishimura 0.01% 10000 751 108
Yuri Yoshida 0.13% 769 201 82

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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