Simulation Results: Chevron Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.89%	112	61		73
Aditi Ashok	0.08%	1250	276		98
Akie Iwai	3.11%	32	26		21
Albane Valenzuela	0.02%	5000	601		72
Alexa Pano	0.04%	2500	751		85
Alison Lee	0.29%	345	226		98
Allisen Corpuz	1.22%	82	81		27
Amy Yang	0.07%	1429	401		59
Andrea Lee	0.88%	114	71		73
Andrea Revuelta	0.01%	10000	201		59
Angel Yin	0.31%	323	67		10
Anna Nordqvist	0.13%	769	351		111
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.17%	588	111		85
Ashleigh Buhai	0.01%	10000	401		121
Asterisk Talley	0.44%	227	126		49
Austin Ernst	0.00%	10000	1501		73
Auston Kim	1.25%	80	51		59
Ayaka Furue	1.22%	82	67		49
Benedetta Moresco	0.01%	10000	1001		131
Brittany Lincicome	0.00%	10000	1001		121
Brooke M. Henderson	1.17%	85	81		49
Brooke Matthews	0.01%	10000	501		98
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.09%	1111	301		116
Carlota Ciganda	0.16%	625	151		12
Cassie Porter	0.25%	400	126		34
Celine Boutier	0.61%	164	141		21
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.01%	10000	501		85
Charley Hull	3.02%	33	29		10
Chiara Tamburlini	0.03%	3333	276		27
Chisato Iwai	3.49%	29	29		111
Dewi Weber	0.06%	1667	326		121
Erica Shepherd	0.00%	10000	801
Erika Hara	0.28%	357	141		38
Esther Henseleit	0.47%	213	111		85
Farah O'Keefe	0.01%	10000	276		38
Frida Kinhult	0.02%	5000	401		121
Gabriela Ruffels	0.08%	1250	451		116
Gaby Lopez	0.92%	109	71		12
Gemma Dryburgh	0.02%	5000	451		98
Grace Kim	0.52%	192	126		116
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	1001		116
Haeran Ryu	4.15%	24	26	0.30%	12	-0.3	BetMGM: 25/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hannah Green	2.92%	34	23		7
Hye-Jin Choi	2.50%	40	56	0.70%	21	-0.7	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	9.37%	11	17	3.70%	6	-3.7	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ilhee Lee	0.00%	10000	801		107
In Gee Chun	0.54%	185	161		107
Ina Yoon	2.31%	43	34		4
Ingrid Lindblad	0.00%	10000	601		45
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.01%	10000	601		27
Jeeno Thitikul	7.28%	14	15	0.70%	73	-0.7	BetMGM: 14/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jennifer Kupcho	0.37%	270	151		12
Jenny Bae	0.18%	556	201		27
Jenny Shin	0.24%	417	276		70
Jessica Porvasnik	0.06%	1667			55
Jin Hee Im	1.18%	85	71		21
Jin Young Ko	0.10%	1000	126		73
Jing Yan	0.26%	385	201		38
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.13%	769	351		98
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.04%	2500	251		45
Jungmin Hong	0.09%	1111	176		107
Karis Davidson	0.21%	476	161		67
Kiara Romero	0.05%	2000	101		98
Laney Frye	0.01%	10000	751		111
Lauren Coughlin	0.90%	111	71		55
Leona Maguire	0.08%	1250	226		116
Lexi Thompson	0.02%	5000	301		12
Lilia Vu	0.01%	10000	401		121
Lindy Duncan	0.50%	200	131		85
Linn Grant	0.63%	159	101		98
Linnea Strom	0.00%	10000	751		59
Lottie Woad	2.30%	43	46	0.10%	7	-0.1	BetMGM: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lucy Li	0.20%	500	201		85
Lydia Ko	2.34%	43	29		73
Madelene Sagstrom	0.03%	3333	251		85
Maja Stark	0.03%	3333	301		21
Manon De Roey	0.11%	909	301		49
Mao Saigo	0.28%	357	111		59
Mary Liu	0.02%	5000	501		27
Megan Khang	0.18%	556	226		34
Megha Ganne	0.00%	10000	301		128
Melanie Green	0.15%	667	401		45
Mi Hyang Lee	0.29%	345	126		98
Mimi Rhodes	0.13%	769	91		73
Minami Katsu	0.63%	159	67		12
Minjee Lee	1.90%	53	29		49
Miranda Wang	0.00%	10000	601		111
Miyu Yamashita	2.99%	33	26		21
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	1001		73
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.50%	200	91		34
Narin An	0.24%	417	301		128
Nasa Hataoka	2.31%	43	26		85
Nastasia Nadaud	0.05%	2000	351		55
Nataliya Guseva	0.03%	3333	451		73
Nelly Korda	18.64%	5.4	6.5	3.80%	1	13.0625	Bet365: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.14%	714	201		111
Patty Tavatanakit	0.33%	303	111		2
Paula Martin Sampedro	0.00%	10000	176		59
Paula Reto	0.00%	10000	1001		69
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.01%	10000	601		27
Peiyun Chien	0.07%	1429	401		59
Perrine Delacour	0.02%	5000	401		45
Pornanong Phatlum	0.04%	2500	501		85
Rio Takeda	1.64%	61	67	0.10%	12	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robyn Choi	0.06%	1667	401		85
Rose Zhang	0.45%	222	76		73
Ruixin Liu	0.06%	1667	201		73
Ruoning Yin	1.93%	52	51		2
Ryann O'Toole	0.07%	1429	226		7
Saki Baba	0.01%	10000	501		27
Sei Young Kim	3.52%	28	26		85
Shannon Tan	0.02%	5000	201		38
Shauna Liu	0.00%	10000	1001		107
Shuri Sakuma	0.76%	132	67		98
Somi Lee	0.94%	106	101		34
Sophia Schubert	0.04%	2500	401		73
Sora Kamiya	0.03%	3333	301		38
Stacy Lewis	0.00%	10000	1001		130
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.00%	10000	751		127
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.05%	2000	751		71
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.02%	5000	651		55
Weiwei Zhang	0.03%	3333	276		67
Yan Liu	0.17%	588	201		4
Yana Wilson	0.03%	3333	226		49
Yani Tseng	0.01%	10000	751		132
Yealimi Noh	0.03%	3333	501		12
Youmin Hwang	0.54%	185	91		12
Yu Liu	0.11%	909	201		85
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	1501		59
Yun Seo Yang	0.00%	10000	501		38
Yuna Nishimura	0.03%	3333	501		85
Yuri Yoshida	0.04%	2500	501		38

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	0.71%	141	56		121
Aditi Ashok	0.77%	130	126		80
Akie Iwai	2.15%	47	41		59
Albane Valenzuela	0.21%	476	251		80
Alexa Pano	0.66%	152	301	0.30%	59	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alison Lee	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	121	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Allisen Corpuz	0.78%	128	71		18
Amy Yang	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	59	-0.1	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrea Lee	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	59	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrea Revuelta	0.37%	270	151		106
Angel Yin	0.48%	208	67		115
Anna Nordqvist	0.35%	286	151		121
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.95%	105	91		38
Ashleigh Buhai	0.21%	476	151		130
Asterisk Talley	0.54%	185	91		18
Austin Ernst	0.09%	1111	301		106
Auston Kim	1.64%	61	56		25
Ayaka Furue	0.77%	130	56		80
Benedetta Moresco	0.32%	313	301		132
Brittany Lincicome	0.19%	526	401		121
Brooke M. Henderson	0.75%	133	67		80
Brooke Matthews	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	98	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.82%	122	126		128
Carlota Ciganda	0.92%	109	101		25
Cassie Porter	0.47%	213	91		18
Celine Boutier	1.42%	70	91	0.30%	25	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.22%	455	201		98
Charley Hull	2.09%	48	41		38
Chiara Tamburlini	0.25%	400	111		59
Chisato Iwai	1.10%	91	46		115
Dewi Weber	0.76%	132	131		130
Erica Shepherd	0.10%	1000	251
Erika Hara	1.10%	91	91		59
Esther Henseleit	0.57%	175	91		80
Farah O'Keefe	0.17%	588	126		4
Frida Kinhult	0.55%	182	151		106
Gabriela Ruffels	0.35%	286	151		121
Gaby Lopez	1.46%	68	67		80
Gemma Dryburgh	0.58%	172	201	0.10%	80	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grace Kim	0.59%	169	101		98
Gurleen Kaur	0.17%	588	401		59
Haeran Ryu	2.49%	40	41	0.10%	38	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hannah Green	2.21%	45	34		59
Hye-Jin Choi	2.10%	48	56	0.30%	25	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	3.30%	30	29		18
Ilhee Lee	0.12%	833	251		121
In Gee Chun	0.59%	169	101		80
Ina Yoon	1.91%	52	46		8
Ingrid Lindblad	0.32%	313	251		38
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	38	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeeno Thitikul	1.51%	66	29		80
Jennifer Kupcho	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	80	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Bae	0.45%	222	101		98
Jenny Shin	0.51%	196	126		80
Jessica Porvasnik	0.31%	323	151		38
Jin Hee Im	1.63%	61	67	0.10%	8	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jin Young Ko	0.83%	120	91		80
Jing Yan	1.04%	96	111	0.10%	25	-0.1	Star Sports: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.41%	244	151		98
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.28%	357	126		25
Jungmin Hong	0.83%	120	101		80
Karis Davidson	0.98%	102	101		25
Kiara Romero	0.69%	145	91		25
Laney Frye	0.19%	526	301		59
Lauren Coughlin	0.73%	137	67		59
Leona Maguire	0.38%	263	111		106
Lexi Thompson	0.55%	182	126		38
Lilia Vu	0.18%	556	201		106
Lindy Duncan	1.32%	76	91	0.20%	38	-0.2	QuinnBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linn Grant	1.35%	74	91	0.30%	18	-0.3	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linnea Strom	0.12%	833	251		8
Lottie Woad	1.00%	100	51		59
Lucy Li	0.49%	204	111		38
Lydia Ko	1.97%	51	41		38
Madelene Sagstrom	0.32%	313	126		106
Maja Stark	0.65%	154	151		8
Manon De Roey	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	115	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mao Saigo	0.48%	208	81		59
Mary Liu	0.53%	189	201		38
Megan Khang	0.45%	222	111		38
Megha Ganne	0.32%	313	126		115
Melanie Green	0.44%	227	151		59
Mi Hyang Lee	0.50%	200	101		80
Mimi Rhodes	0.90%	111	71		8
Minami Katsu	0.64%	156	67		25
Minjee Lee	1.85%	54	41		80
Miranda Wang	0.13%	769	251		106
Miyu Yamashita	2.19%	46	34		38
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.11%	909	401		98
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.64%	156	81		8
Narin An	1.06%	94	151	0.40%	121	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nasa Hataoka	2.00%	50	41		80
Nastasia Nadaud	0.29%	345	151		8
Nataliya Guseva	0.25%	400	201		38
Nelly Korda	2.18%	46	17		1
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.44%	227	126		98
Patty Tavatanakit	1.11%	90	81		2
Paula Martin Sampedro	0.40%	250	101		80
Paula Reto	0.15%	667	401		18
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.22%	455	201		4
Peiyun Chien	0.33%	303	201		25
Perrine Delacour	0.27%	370	151		59
Pornanong Phatlum	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	38	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda	1.86%	54	67	0.40%	59	-0.4	QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robyn Choi	0.32%	313	201		59
Rose Zhang	0.58%	172	61		59
Ruixin Liu	0.68%	147	126		38
Ruoning Yin	0.88%	114	56		25
Ryann O'Toole	0.31%	323	111		8
Saki Baba	0.16%	625	201		18
Sei Young Kim	2.34%	43	41		59
Shannon Tan	0.50%	200	101		38
Shauna Liu	0.00%	10000	251		59
Shuri Sakuma	1.47%	68	61		106
Somi Lee	1.60%	63	81	0.40%	2	3.8	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sophia Schubert	0.65%	154	151		98
Sora Kamiya	0.57%	175	126		8
Stacy Lewis	0.07%	1429	301		128
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.23%	435	251		59
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	0.29%	345	151		25
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.57%	175	251	0.20%	38	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang	0.30%	333	126		59
Yan Liu	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	4	0.6125	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yana Wilson	0.51%	196	111		106
Yani Tseng	0.21%	476	301		115
Yealimi Noh	0.25%	400	201		38
Youmin Hwang	0.58%	172	71		38
Yu Liu	0.85%	118	126	0.10%	25	-0.1	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuka Saso	0.08%	1250	301		80
Yun Seo Yang	0.07%	1429	201		8
Yuna Nishimura	0.65%	154	201	0.20%	38	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuri Yoshida	0.25%	400	201		4

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Nelly Korda	18.64%	5.4	6.5	3.80%	1	6.875	Bet365: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hyo Joo Kim	9.37%	11	17	3.70%	6	-2	Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jeeno Thitikul	7.28%	14	15	0.70%	73	-2	BetMGM: 14/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rio Takeda	1.86%	54	67	0.40%	59	-1	QuinnBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Somi Lee	1.60%	63	81	0.40%	2	9.5	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Narin An	1.06%	94	151	0.40%	121	-1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Hye-Jin Choi	2.10%	48	56	0.30%	25	-1	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Celine Boutier	1.42%	70	91	0.30%	25	-1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Linn Grant	1.35%	74	91	0.30%	18	-1	BetMGM: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.