Simulation Results: Chevron Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 1.97% 51 26 40
Aditi Ashok 0.33% 303 601 0.20% 62 -0.2 Skybet: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Akie Iwai 1.70% 59 41 40
Albane Valenzuela 0.32% 313 351 45
Alena Sharp 0.09% 1111 1001 67
Alexa Pano 0.18% 556 601 67
Allisen Corpuz 1.32% 76 51 18
Amy Yang 0.69% 145 131 52
Andrea Lee 0.44% 227 276 0.10% 30 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Yin 1.32% 76 34 13
Anna Nordqvist 0.11% 909 601 59
Ariya Jutanugarn 0.45% 222 91 2
Arpichaya Yubol 0.23% 435 551 92
Ashleigh Buhai 0.83% 120 101 62
Asterisk Talley 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 130 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Auston Kim 0.38% 263 226 45
Ayaka Furue 2.88% 35 31 30
Bailey Tardy 0.10% 1000 751 92
Benedetta Moresco 0.16% 625 501 82
Brittany Lincicome 0.07% 1429 1501 130
Brooke M. Henderson 1.11% 90 81 45
Brooke Matthews 0.15% 667 751 28
Carla Bernat 0.01% 10000 251 121
Carlota Ciganda 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 9 -0.1 Unibet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caroline Inglis 0.15% 667 1501 0.10% 103 -0.1 Skybet: 1500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Caroline Masson 0.04% 2500 1001 92
Cassie Porter 0.20% 500 351 40
Celine Boutier 1.39% 72 71 82
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.30% 333 276 18
Charley Hull 2.98% 34 26 92
Chayse Gomez 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Cheyenne Knight 0.10% 1000 751 52
Chiara Tamburlini 0.28% 357 351 109
Chisato Iwai 1.87% 53 41 30
Clarisa Temelo 0.00% 10000 1001 109
Dewi Weber 0.12% 833 1001 30
Elizabeth Szokol 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 30 -0.1 Skybet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.28% 357 401 24
Esther Henseleit 0.97% 103 91 18
Frida Kinhult 0.14% 714 601 76
Gabriela Ruffels 0.10% 1000 601 45
Gaby Lopez 1.11% 90 76 82
Gemma Dryburgh 0.36% 278 326 0.10% 82 -0.1 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Georgia Hall 0.31% 323 276 28
Gianna Clemente 0.05% 2000 401 71
Gigi Stoll 0.07% 1429 751 70
Grace Kim 0.29% 345 451 0.10% 59 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gurleen Kaur 0.07% 1429 751 92
Haeran Ryu 2.69% 37 26 6
Hannah Green 2.24% 45 41 109
Hinako Shibuno 0.13% 769 551 45
Hira Naveed 0.09% 1111 751 124
Hye-Jin Choi 1.39% 72 71 9
Hyo Joo Kim 1.59% 63 51 2
In Gee Chun 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 18 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ina Yoon 1.87% 53 41 52
Ingrid Lindblad 1.56% 64 71 0.20% 52 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasmine Koo 1.57% 64 251 1.20% 103 -1.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.07% 1429 801 62
Jeeno Thitikul 7.75% 13 10 24
Jeneath Wong 0.01% 10000 601 128
Jennifer Kupcho 0.62% 161 126 82
Jenny Bae 0.11% 909 551 92
Jenny Shin 0.41% 244 351 0.10% 71 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee5 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 79 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeongeun Lee6 0.09% 1111 751 109
Jin Hee Im 2.07% 48 36 74
Jin Young Ko 2.10% 48 26 6
Jing Yan 0.13% 769 551 92
Jiwon Jeon 0.08% 1250 1501 126
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.03% 3333 1501 82
Kristen Gillman 0.50% 200 351 0.20% 92 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lauren Coughlin 2.41% 41 26 18
Leona Maguire 0.47% 213 201 67
Lexi Thompson 0.71% 141 131 14
Lilia Vu 0.95% 105 51 78
Lindy Duncan 0.63% 159 201 0.10% 2 1.95 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Linn Grant 1.02% 98 91 82
Linnea Strom 0.04% 2500 1001 109
Lottie Woad 0.25% 400 101 92
Lucy Li 0.30% 333 351 30
Lydia Ko 3.80% 26 19 52
Madelene Sagstrom 0.38% 263 176 82
Maja Stark 0.20% 500 126 45
Manon De Roey 0.28% 357 351 9
Mao Saigo 0.76% 132 111 1
Mary Liu 0.17% 588 801 103
Megan Khang 0.71% 141 101 40
Mi Hyang Lee 0.54% 185 201 18
Minami Katsu 0.47% 213 151 62
Minjee Lee 2.99% 33 29 14
Miranda Wang 0.29% 345 326 52
Miyu Yamashita 2.75% 36 29 30
Morgane Metraux 0.05% 2000 1001 82
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.15% 667 401 128
Muni He 0.11% 909 551 109
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.37% 73 71 109
Narin An 0.43% 233 226 103
Nasa Hataoka 3.11% 32 29 52
Nataliya Guseva 0.58% 172 101 82
Nelly Korda 4.35% 23 11 14
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.88% 114 201 0.40% 30 -0.4 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patty Tavatanakit 0.62% 161 86 109
Paula Reto 0.22% 455 601 0.10% 71 -0.1 Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.15% 667 451 62
Peiyun Chien 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 76 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pernilla Lindberg 0.05% 2000 2501 81
Pornanong Phatlum 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 124 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda 1.95% 51 31 59
Ruixin Liu 0.34% 294 326 103
Ruoning Yin 1.17% 85 56 2
Ryann O'Toole 0.10% 1000 801 79
Saki Baba 0.19% 526 276 109
Sarah Schmelzel 0.97% 103 101 6
Savannah Grewal 0.07% 1429 801 109
Sei Young Kim 0.86% 116 71 24
Somi Lee 0.90% 111 131 0.10% 24 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sophia Popov 0.03% 3333 1501 30
Stacy Lewis 0.13% 769 1251 0.10% 121 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 30 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.28% 357 601 0.10% 109 -0.1 Skybet: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Weiwei Zhang 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 14 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wichanee Meechai 0.12% 833 801 126
Xiyu Lin 0.61% 164 101 92
Yahui Zhang 0.45% 222 276 0.10% 92 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yan Liu 0.17% 588 751 9
Yani Tseng 0.00% 10000 2501 103
Yealimi Noh 1.44% 69 41 121
Yu Liu 0.26% 385 451 74
Yuka Saso 0.14% 714 276 109
Yuna Nishimura 0.07% 1429 801 45
Yuri Yoshida 0.78% 128 111 40

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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