Simulation Results: Tournament of Champions

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.52%	40	29		9
Akie Iwai	1.83%	55	34		15
Amy Yang	0.10%	1000	151		2
Angel Yin	0.11%	909	91		37
Austin Ernst	0.00%	10000	601		36
Ayaka Furue	2.12%	47	41		9
Bailey Tardy	0.01%	10000	501		30
Brooke M. Henderson	5.29%	19	23	1.00%	3	1.75	BetGoodwin: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.02%	5000	351		17
Charley Hull	8.72%	11	13	1.10%	17	-1.1	BetGoodwin: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chisato Iwai	2.76%	36	29		27
Haeran Ryu	3.83%	26	26		9
Ingrid Lindblad	0.06%	1667	151		23
Jasmine Suwannapura	0.03%	3333	351		15
Jeeno Thitikul	22.49%	4.4	4.5	0.30%	7	-0.3	Bet365: 3.5/1, 4pl, 1/5
Jennifer Kupcho	0.75%	133	41		34
Jin Hee Im	0.87%	115	41		33
Lauren Coughlin	0.48%	208	61		27
Lilia Vu	0.00%	10000	201		17
Linn Grant	1.52%	66	29		17
Linnea Strom	0.00%	10000	351		24
Lottie Woad	2.72%	37	23		7
Lydia Ko	3.01%	33	17		4
Madelene Sagstrom	0.07%	1429	201		24
Maja Stark	0.19%	526	101		30
Mao Saigo	2.07%	48	29		34
Miranda Wang	0.16%	625	126		29
Miyu Yamashita	3.22%	31	19		5
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.00%	10000	601		39
Nasa Hataoka	7.45%	13	15	0.80%	9	-0.8	BetGoodwin: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nelly Korda	19.43%	5.1	7	6.00%	1	16.875	BetGoodwin: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit	0.52%	192	71		24
Rio Takeda	2.44%	41	26		30
Rose Zhang	0.78%	128	41		9
Ruoning Yin	1.67%	60	29		17
Somi Lee	1.90%	53	31		9
Yealimi Noh	0.19%	526	81		17
Youmin Hwang	0.70%	143	41		5
Yuka Saso	0.00%	10000	501		37

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	3.34%	30	26		8
Akie Iwai	3.02%	33	29		8
Amy Yang	1.42%	70	67		6
Angel Yin	1.45%	69	56		37
Austin Ernst	0.31%	323	126		29
Ayaka Furue	3.15%	32	31		29
Bailey Tardy	0.80%	125	101		20
Brooke M. Henderson	4.16%	24	26	0.30%	26	-0.3	Skybet: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.84%	119	91		2
Charley Hull	4.83%	21	17		13
Chisato Iwai	3.42%	29	26		34
Haeran Ryu	3.77%	27	26		26
Ingrid Lindblad	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	8	-0.1	QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.04%	96	91		26
Jeeno Thitikul	6.91%	14	10		2
Jennifer Kupcho	2.44%	41	34		34
Jin Hee Im	2.50%	40	34		20
Lauren Coughlin	2.14%	47	41		38
Lilia Vu	0.65%	154	111		20
Linn Grant	2.90%	34	26		2
Linnea Strom	0.77%	130	101		16
Lottie Woad	3.49%	29	23		2
Lydia Ko	3.54%	28	19		8
Madelene Sagstrom	1.41%	71	81	0.20%	34	-0.2	William Hill: 80/1, 4pl, 1/5
Maja Stark	1.68%	60	56		16
Mao Saigo	3.13%	32	26		20
Miranda Wang	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	16	-0.1	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miyu Yamashita	3.50%	29	21		29
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.70%	143	126		29
Nasa Hataoka	4.72%	21	19		1
Nelly Korda	6.64%	15	13		6
Patty Tavatanakit	2.21%	45	41		13
Rio Takeda	3.23%	31	26		29
Rose Zhang	2.48%	40	34		13
Ruoning Yin	3.11%	32	29		20
Somi Lee	3.01%	33	29		8
Yealimi Noh	1.63%	61	51		20
Youmin Hwang	2.26%	44	31		16
Yuka Saso	0.50%	200	151		39

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Nelly Korda	19.43%	5.1	7	6.00%	1	5.625	BetGoodwin: 4.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charley Hull	8.72%	11	13	1.10%	17	-2	BetGoodwin: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Brooke M. Henderson	5.29%	19	23	1.00%	3	3.5	BetGoodwin: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Brooke M. Henderson	4.16%	24	26	0.30%	26	-1	Skybet: 25/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Madelene Sagstrom	1.41%	71	81	0.20%	34	-1	William Hill: 80/1, 4pl, 1/5
FRL: Miranda Wang	1.62%	62	67	0.10%	16	-1	Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ingrid Lindblad	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	26		QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.