Simulation Results: Canadian Women's Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.14% 47 51 0.20% 139 -0.2 Betfred: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adela Cernousek 0.01% 10000 451 105
Aditi Ashok 0.14% 714 276 36
Akie Iwai 3.12% 32 26 4
Alena Sharp 0.00% 10000 751 155
Alexa Pano 0.00% 10000 451 15
Aline Krauter 0.01% 10000 376 105
Allisen Corpuz 0.21% 476 201 79
Amanda Doherty 0.07% 1429 276 90
Amy Yang 0.26% 385 226 57
Andrea Lee 1.80% 56 46 20
Angel Yin 1.84% 54 41 64
Anna Davis 0.00% 10000 301 139
Anna Huang 0.00% 10000 751 105
Anna Nordqvist 0.04% 2500 451 90
Aphrodite Deng 0.00% 10000 451 20
Ariya Jutanugarn 2.33% 43 36 52
Arpichaya Yubol 0.12% 833 301 131
Ashleigh Buhai 0.11% 909 226 79
Auston Kim 0.18% 556 101 118
Azahara Munoz 0.01% 10000 551 105
Bailey Tardy 0.00% 10000 1001 148
Benedetta Moresco 0.06% 1667 301 20
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.04% 2500 501 79
Brianna Do 0.00% 10000 601 90
Brittany Altomare 0.00% 10000 1001 152
Brooke M. Henderson 1.60% 63 56 1
Caley McGinty 0.00% 10000 751 73
Carla Bernat 0.00% 10000 551 67
Carlota Ciganda 0.32% 313 131 90
Caroline Masson 0.02% 5000 351 48
Cassie Porter 0.07% 1429 226 57
Celina Yeo 0.00% 10000 1501 152
Celine Borge 0.07% 1429 401 15
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.15% 667 151 36
Chisato Iwai 1.79% 56 34 79
Clara Ding 0.00% 10000 751 79
Daniela Darquea 0.02% 5000 401 90
Danielle Kang 0.00% 10000 1501 105
Dewi Weber 0.06% 1667 226 118
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.25% 400 201 148
Esther Henseleit 1.24% 81 61 27
Eun-Hee Ji 0.00% 10000 1501 118
Fiona Xu 0.00% 10000 1001
Frida Kinhult 0.04% 2500 601 52
Gabriela Ruffels 0.30% 333 151 71
Gaby Lopez 0.53% 189 131 9
Gemma Dryburgh 0.04% 2500 401 45
Gigi Stoll 0.00% 10000 1001 139
Grace Kim 0.58% 172 71 27
Gurleen Kaur 0.09% 1111 226 52
Haeji Kang 0.00% 10000 1001 79
Haeran Ryu 3.91% 26 19 45
Hannah Green 0.09% 1111 161 118
Hinako Shibuno 0.01% 10000 401 105
Hira Naveed 0.00% 10000 501 118
Hye-Jin Choi 3.25% 31 29 36
Hyo Joon Jang 0.01% 10000 751 118
In Gee Chun 0.16% 625 161 57
Ina Yoon 0.86% 116 111 36
Jaravee Boonchant 0.02% 5000 551 105
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.05% 2000 451 48
Jeeno Thitikul 9.73% 10 12 1.50% 7 -1.5 Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jennifer Kupcho 0.75% 133 81 36
Jenny Bae 0.02% 5000 401 10
Jenny Shin 0.49% 204 111 77
Jeongeun Lee5 0.07% 1429 301 20
Jeongeun Lee6 0.00% 10000 751 36
Jessica Porvasnik 0.00% 10000 1251 105
Jin Hee Im 1.27% 79 61 64
Jin Young Ko 1.21% 83 56 27
Jing Yan 0.01% 10000 501
Jiwon Jeon 0.01% 10000 1001 139
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.04% 2500 451 52
Joline Truong 0.00% 10000 2501 131
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.08% 1250 151 138
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.02% 5000 451 90
Katie Cranston 0.00% 10000 1001 71
Kiara Romero 2.51% 40 61 0.90% 36 -0.9 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kristen Gillman 0.21% 476 251 118
Kumkang Park 0.01% 10000 401 139
Lauren Coughlin 2.49% 40 41 0.10% 79 -0.1 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lauren Hartlage 0.00% 10000 601 67
Lauren Kim 0.00% 10000 401 90
Lauren Morris 0.00% 10000 2001 90
Leona Maguire 0.27% 370 126 20
Lexi Thompson 0.27% 370 71 139
Lilia Vu 0.03% 3333 251 118
Lindy Duncan 0.61% 164 111 105
Linn Grant 3.88% 26 29 0.40% 105 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linnea Strom 0.00% 10000 1001 20
Lottie Woad 15.07% 6.6 13 8.00% 79 -8 Betfred: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li 0.09% 1111 276 79
Lydia Ko 1.44% 69 41 5
Madelene Sagstrom 0.21% 476 131 90
Madison Young 0.00% 10000 1001 131
Maja Stark 0.02% 5000 276 67
Manon De Roey 0.20% 500 226 5
Mao Saigo 1.96% 51 31 3
Maria Fassi 0.00% 10000 1001 57
Mariel Galdiano 0.00% 10000 1001 64
Mary Liu 0.03% 3333 401 79
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.00% 10000 2001 20
Megan Khang 2.24% 45 41 7
Mi Hyang Lee 0.46% 217 91 45
Michelle Xing 0.00% 10000 601 139
Minami Katsu 0.34% 294 126 10
Minjee Lee 6.22% 16 16 2
Miranda Wang 0.11% 909 301 105
Mirim Lee 0.00% 10000 1001 131
Monet Chun 0.00% 10000 36
Morgane Metraux 0.01% 10000 751 131
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.00% 10000 601 131
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 0.90% 111 101 90
Nasa Hataoka 0.85% 118 71 36
Nataliya Guseva 0.02% 5000 601 57
Nelly Korda 6.77% 15 17 0.90% 10 -0.9 Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olivia Cowan 0.05% 2000 401 75
Pajaree Anannarukarn 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 27 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 0.17% 588 151 10
Paula Reto 0.04% 2500 326 90
Peiyun Chien 0.15% 667 326 27
Pornanong Phatlum 0.02% 5000 401 52
Rio Takeda 4.11% 24 26 0.30% 15 -0.3 Bet365: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robyn Choi 0.09% 1111 376 15
Rose Zhang 0.64% 156 46 90
Ruihan Wang 0.00% 10000 2001 118
Ruixin Liu 0.13% 769 251 156
Ryann O'Toole 0.02% 5000 551 90
Saki Baba 0.02% 5000 551 27
Sarah Schmelzel 0.57% 175 111 78
Savannah Grewal 0.01% 10000 751 131
Sei Young Kim 1.24% 81 51 10
Shauna Liu 0.00% 10000 751 152
Sofia Garcia 0.00% 10000 1001 105
Somi Lee 1.51% 66 41 15
Soo Bin Joo 0.02% 5000 501 48
Soomin Oh 0.00% 10000 276 139
Sophia Popov 0.00% 10000 1001 90
Stacy Lewis 0.01% 10000 751 75
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.51% 196 71 118
Sung Hyun Park 0.06% 1667 301 70
Tillie Claggett 0.00% 10000 751 90
Vanessa Borovilos 0.00% 10000 601 105
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.22% 455 226 79
Weiwei Zhang 0.02% 5000 501 118
Wichanee Meechai 0.00% 10000 751 73
Xiaowen Yin 0.03% 3333 601 57
Yahui Zhang 0.07% 1429 376 48
Yan Liu 0.10% 1000 401 57
Yealimi Noh 0.57% 175 91 118
Yu Liu 0.03% 3333 551 27
Yuka Saso 0.00% 10000 551 150
Yuna Nishimura 0.01% 10000 751 27
Yurang Li 0.00% 10000 1501 151
Yuri Yoshida 0.00% 10000 226 27

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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