Simulation Results: Blue Bay LPGA

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	4.75%	21	17		5
Aditi Ashok	0.67%	149	161		3
Albane Valenzuela	0.38%	263	181		33
Alexa Pano	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	18	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aline Krauter	0.26%	385	276		100
Ana Belac	0.55%	182	151		43
Anne Chen	0.08%	1250	126		100
Arpichaya Yubol	1.07%	93	81		73
Auston Kim	5.30%	19	17		3
Ayaka Furue	5.34%	19	13		15
Bailey Tardy	0.41%	244	161		43
Benedetta Moresco	0.20%	500	401		88
Briana Chacon	0.11%	909	226		60
Camille Boyd	0.11%	909	351		76
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.72%	139	131		50
Carolina Melgrati	0.05%	2000	251		81
Celine Borge	0.26%	385	201		71
Chanettee Wannasaen	1.42%	70	67		28
Chella Choi	0.16%	625	276		46
Chiara Tamburlini	0.73%	137	61		46
Cocona Sakurai	0.00%	10000	201		50
Dewi Weber	0.42%	238	161		50
Dongeun Lee	2.75%	36	41	0.30%	39	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Emma McMyler	0.02%	5000	601		60
Erica Shepherd	0.02%	5000	351		15
Erika Hara	1.39%	72	56		10
Esther Henseleit	2.51%	40	36		12
Frida Kinhult	0.37%	270	276		39
Gemma Dryburgh	1.09%	92	101	0.10%	50	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gina Kim	0.34%	294	76		70
Haeji Kang	0.04%	2500	476		76
Hailee Cooper	0.70%	143	126		94
Haruka Morita	0.15%	667	301		50
Haya Lin	0.00%	10000	351
Hinako Shibuno	0.17%	588	251		50
Hye-Jin Choi	7.62%	13	11		5
Isi Gabsa	0.11%	909	326		86
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	39	-0.3	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Bae	1.61%	62	81	0.40%	9	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Shin	2.34%	43	91	1.30%	18	-1.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee5	0.52%	192	176		81
Jing Yan	0.19%	526	151		24
Jingwen Zhang	0.00%	10000	601		94
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.41%	244	176		60
Kumkang Park	0.17%	588	201		76
Laetitia Beck	0.17%	588	176		67
Laney Frye	0.13%	769	226		28
Lauren Walsh	0.47%	213	126		75
Leah John	0.01%	10000	351		99
Leona Maguire	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	18	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lindy Duncan	4.00%	25	34	1.10%	15	-1.1	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linnea Strom	0.51%	196	201		43
Lucy Li	1.86%	54	67	0.40%	10	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manon De Roey	1.34%	75	101	0.40%	81	-0.4	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mary Liu	0.69%	145	101		18
Melanie Green	0.86%	116	61		64
Mi Hyang Lee	2.05%	49	81	0.80%	1	40	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mimi Rhodes	2.85%	35	31		33
Minji Kang	0.33%	303	126		71
Mohan Du	0.06%	1667	276		108
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.02%	5000	301		106
Muni He	0.54%	185	151		28
Nastasia Nadaud	0.84%	119	126		50
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.78%	56	81	0.60%	76	-0.6	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paula Reto	0.32%	313	351		76
Peiyun Chien	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	28	-0.1	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Perrine Delacour	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	39	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Polly Mack	0.12%	833	351		90
Pornanong Phatlum	1.03%	97	126	0.20%	24	-0.2	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Riley Smyth	0.08%	1250	176		90
Rio Takeda	5.21%	19	15		5
Robyn Choi	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	24	-0.2	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruixin Liu	0.65%	154	91		46
Runzhi Pang	0.01%	10000	351		94
Ruoning Yin	5.00%	20	19		24
Saki Baba	1.06%	94	151	0.40%	86	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sherman Santiwiwattanaphong	0.05%	2000	301		104
Shiyuan Zhou	0.71%	141	126		23
Shuying Li	0.73%	137	126		73
Soo Bin Joo	0.07%	1429	161		50
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.08%	1250	401		60
Stephanie Meadow	0.24%	417	376		100
Supamas Sangchan	0.02%	5000	1001		88
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	2.01%	50	126	1.20%	67	-1.2	Spreadex: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.63%	159	226	0.20%	33	-0.2	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang	0.77%	130	201	0.30%	2	7.35	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xiang Sui	0.06%	1667	226		67
Xiaowen Yin	0.40%	250	126		90
Xinen Lin	0.00%	10000	251		50
Xinyu Wang	0.00%	10000	476		100
Yahui Zhang	0.23%	435	351		81
Yan Liu	2.13%	47	67	0.60%	12	-0.6	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yana Wilson	0.36%	278	46		46
Yanhong Pan	0.00%	10000	451		90
Yaxuan Huang	0.00%	10000	401		107
Yijia Ren	0.06%	1667	176		94
Ying Xu	0.32%	313	176		28
Youmin Hwang	5.54%	18	15		18
Yu Liu	0.35%	286	101		5
Yuai Ji	0.24%	417	276		33
Yujie Liu	0.29%	345	226		12
Yuka Saso	0.08%	1250	651		33
Yuli Shi	0.04%	2500	126		94
Yuna Nishimura	0.53%	189	161		33
Yuri Yoshida	1.40%	71	101	0.40%	81	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zining An	0.00%	10000	601		64
Zixuan Wang	0.01%	10000	121		50
Ziyan Meng	0.00%	10000	651		104

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	2.47%	40	31		20
Aditi Ashok	0.74%	135	111		7
Albane Valenzuela	0.52%	192	101		53
Alexa Pano	0.62%	161	151		26
Aline Krauter	0.42%	238	126		105
Ana Belac	0.66%	152	91		63
Anne Chen	0.44%	227	86		76
Arpichaya Yubol	1.43%	70	71		94
Auston Kim	3.58%	28	29	0.10%	4	0.16666666666667	QuinnBet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ayaka Furue	3.65%	27	23		7
Bailey Tardy	0.85%	118	91		63
Benedetta Moresco	0.33%	303	151		98
Briana Chacon	0.45%	222	101		43
Camille Boyd	0.28%	357	176		63
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra	0.79%	127	91		14
Carolina Melgrati	0.26%	385	141		87
Celine Borge	0.42%	238	101		63
Chanettee Wannasaen	1.74%	57	67	0.30%	14	-0.3	VirginBet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Chella Choi	0.56%	179	126		20
Chiara Tamburlini	0.79%	127	61		43
Cocona Sakurai	0.02%	5000	111		26
Dewi Weber	0.91%	110	91		26
Dongeun Lee	1.62%	62	46		63
Emma McMyler	0.20%	500	251		7
Erica Shepherd	0.21%	476	151		53
Erika Hara	1.10%	91	56		26
Esther Henseleit	1.57%	64	46		7
Frida Kinhult	0.76%	132	126		26
Gemma Dryburgh	0.97%	103	81		26
Gina Kim	0.78%	128	61		43
Haeji Kang	0.21%	476	176		76
Hailee Cooper	0.79%	127	86		87
Hinako Shibuno	0.34%	294	126		63
Hye-Jin Choi	3.28%	30	26		26
Isi Gabsa	0.50%	200	151		76
Jasmine Suwannapura	1.56%	64	81	0.30%	76	-0.3	VirginBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jenny Bae	1.91%	52	71	0.50%	20	-0.5	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jenny Shin	2.23%	45	71	0.80%	26	-0.8	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeongeun Lee5	0.68%	147	101		53
Jing Yan	0.38%	263	101		53
Jingwen Zhang	0.04%	2500	251		94
Jodi Ewart Shadoff	0.81%	123	101		76
Kumkang Park	0.41%	244	126		76
Laetitia Beck	0.35%	286	101		43
Laney Frye	0.49%	204	126		63
Lauren Walsh	1.04%	96	71		26
Leah John	0.20%	500	151		63
Leona Maguire	1.38%	72	91	0.30%	14	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lindy Duncan	3.13%	32	41	0.70%	14	-0.7	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linnea Strom	0.68%	147	126		53
Lucy Li	1.33%	75	61		26
Manon De Roey	1.66%	60	81	0.40%	53	-0.4	VirginBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Mary Liu	1.17%	85	81		1
Melanie Green	1.31%	76	51		53
Mi Hyang Lee	1.37%	73	67		4
Mimi Rhodes	2.66%	38	36		76
Minji Kang	0.76%	132	81		43
Mohan Du	0.35%	286	111		108
Moriya Jutanugarn	0.12%	833	151		106
Muni He	0.60%	167	91		26
Nastasia Nadaud	0.83%	120	86		63
Pajaree Anannarukarn	1.32%	76	67		76
Paula Reto	0.79%	127	151	0.10%	43	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peiyun Chien	0.95%	105	91		53
Perrine Delacour	1.00%	100	81		53
Polly Mack	0.30%	333	151		103
Pornanong Phatlum	1.40%	71	91	0.30%	7	-0.3	VirginBet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Qianhui Lin	2.78%	36			43
Riley Smyth	0.42%	238	101		87
Rio Takeda	3.72%	27	26		26
Robyn Choi	1.17%	85	126	0.40%	26	-0.4	Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ruixin Liu	1.17%	85	81		26
Runzhi Pang	0.17%	588	151		26
Ruoning Yin	2.45%	41	31		7
Saki Baba	0.95%	105	101		98
Sherman Santiwiwattanaphong	0.17%	588	151		103
Shiyuan Zhou	0.76%	132	101		14
Shuying Li	0.71%	141	71		63
Soo Bin Joo	0.21%	476	101		63
Ssu-Chia Cheng	0.27%	370	201		87
Stephanie Meadow	0.41%	244	151		98
Supamas Sangchan	0.26%	385	401		87
Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	1.40%	71	91	0.30%	76	-0.3	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wanyao Lu	0.01%	10000
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.70%	143	126		20
Weiwei Zhang	1.28%	78	111	0.40%	1	12.833333333333	VBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Xiang Sui	0.24%	417	101		63
Xiaowen Yin	0.80%	125	91		76
Xinen Lin	0.01%	10000	111		26
Xinyu Wang	0.02%	5000	176		101
Yahui Zhang	0.70%	143	151		43
Yan Liu	1.42%	70	67		20
Yana Wilson	0.81%	123	46		43
Yanhong Pan	0.11%	909	176		87
Yaxuan Huang	0.02%	5000	201		106
Yijia Ren	0.19%	526	101		94
Ying Xu	0.75%	133	101		14
Youmin Hwang	3.78%	26	26		1
Yu Liu	0.53%	189	81		7
Yuai Ji	0.44%	227	126		63
Yujie Liu	0.73%	137	101		20
Yuka Saso	0.23%	435	251		76
Yuli Shi	0.16%	625	86		87
Yuna Nishimura	0.65%	154	111		94
Yuri Yoshida	1.73%	58	81	0.50%	53	-0.5	VirginBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Zining An	0.11%	909	251		4
Zixuan Wang	0.19%	526	81		26
Ziyan Meng	0.01%	10000	301		101

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jenny Shin	2.34%	43	91	1.30%	18	-2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Suvichaya Vinijchaitham	2.01%	50	126	1.20%	67	-2	Spreadex: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Lindy Duncan	4.00%	25	34	1.10%	15	-2	Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Shin	2.23%	45	71	0.80%	26	-1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Lindy Duncan	3.13%	32	41	0.70%	14	-1	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Bae	1.91%	52	71	0.50%	20	-1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Yuri Yoshida	1.73%	58	81	0.50%	53	-1	VirginBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Manon De Roey	1.66%	60	81	0.40%	53	-1	VirginBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Weiwei Zhang	1.28%	78	111	0.40%	1	32.083333333333	VBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.