Simulation Results: Black Desert Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.41% 41 23 70
Adela Cernousek 0.01% 10000 1501 126
Aditi Ashok 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 31 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Akie Iwai 2.18% 46 26 83
Albane Valenzuela 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alena Sharp 0.21% 476 501 126
Alexa Pano 0.28% 357 301 70
Ali Mulhall 0.00% 10000 1001 91
Allisen Corpuz 2.48% 40 29 100
Amanda Doherty 0.18% 556 501 107
Amy Yang 1.17% 85 81 40
Ana Belac 0.04% 2500 751 31
Andrea Lee 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 10 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anna Nordqvist 0.23% 435 351 36
Ariya Jutanugarn 1.97% 51 36 6
Arpichaya Yubol 0.26% 385 301 52
Ashleigh Buhai 1.09% 92 81 45
Auston Kim 0.53% 189 126 10
Ayaka Furue 3.33% 30 21 48
Azahara Munoz 0.11% 909 751 48
Bailey Tardy 0.13% 769 401 100
Benedetta Moresco 0.21% 476 351 70
Bianca Pagdanganan 0.10% 1000 501 132
Brittany Altomare 0.01% 10000 1501 117
Brooke M. Henderson 1.47% 68 61 12
Brooke Matthews 0.33% 303 251 115
Caley McGinty 0.01% 10000 1501 100
Carlota Ciganda 2.25% 44 51 0.30% 52 -0.3 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caroline Inglis 0.15% 667 1501 0.10% 52 -0.1 QuinnBet: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cassie Porter 0.31% 323 176 91
Celine Borge 0.13% 769 751 117
Celine Boutier 1.65% 61 61 12
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.68% 147 126 6
Charley Hull 2.82% 35 23 40
Cheyenne Knight 0.23% 435 501 83
Chisato Iwai 2.06% 49 34 83
Christine Wang 0.01% 10000 1501 58
Cristie Kerr 0.01% 10000 1501 138
Dani Holmqvist 0.03% 3333 1501 100
Daniela Iacobelli 0.01% 10000 1501 123
Danielle Kang 0.01% 10000 1501 143
Dewi Weber 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 45 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Emily Kristine Pedersen 0.47% 213 151 100
Esther Henseleit 1.66% 60 51 2
Eun-Hee Ji 0.05% 2000 1501 132
Fatima Fernandez Cano 0.07% 1429 401 142
Fiona Xu 0.00% 10000 751 126
Frida Kinhult 0.18% 556 401 107
Gabriela Ruffels 0.29% 345 201 83
Gaby Lopez 1.45% 69 61 40
Gemma Dryburgh 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Georgia Hall 0.69% 145 151 117
Gigi Stoll 0.13% 769 501 123
Grace Kim 0.52% 192 301 0.20% 9 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gurleen Kaur 0.08% 1250 601 138
Haeji Kang 0.05% 2000 1501 107
Haeran Ryu 4.44% 23 15 1
Heather Lin 0.00% 10000 1501 70
Hinako Shibuno 0.26% 385 251 60
Hira Naveed 0.12% 833 501 100
Hye-Jin Choi 2.38% 42 34 12
Hyo Joo Kim 3.58% 28 23 20
Hyo Joon Jang 0.10% 1000 601 132
In Gee Chun 0.67% 149 251 0.30% 91 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ina Yoon 2.00% 50 34 70
Ingrid Lindblad 1.38% 72 41 36
Jasmine Suwannapura 0.18% 556 501 27
Jennifer Kupcho 0.80% 125 101 20
Jenny Bae 0.10% 1000 501 40
Jenny Coleman 0.02% 5000 1001 132
Jeongeun Lee6 0.12% 833 601 117
Jessica Porvasnik 0.02% 5000 1001 70
Jin Hee Im 1.96% 51 34 20
Jiwon Jeon 0.08% 1250 1001 12
Jodi Ewart Shadoff 0.15% 667 751 126
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.04% 2500 351 70
Karis Davidson 0.06% 1667 1501 66
Kate Smith-Stroh 0.04% 2500 1001 64
Kristen Gillman 0.50% 200 276 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kumkang Park 0.02% 5000 1501 91
Lauren Hartlage 0.05% 2000 751 67
Lauren Morris 0.11% 909 1501 60
Lilia Vu 0.85% 118 46 138
Lindy Duncan 1.56% 64 56 36
Linn Grant 1.39% 72 61 107
Linnea Strom 0.06% 1667 601 70
Lucy Li 0.58% 172 151 27
Madison Young 0.04% 2500 601 67
Maja Stark 0.42% 238 101 107
Manon De Roey 0.70% 143 101 27
Mao Saigo 1.55% 65 41 31
Mariel Galdiano 0.03% 3333 1501 91
Mary Liu 0.21% 476 501 83
Maude-Aimee Leblanc 0.04% 2500 1501 91
Megan Khang 1.77% 56 51 69
Mi Hyang Lee 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 12 -0.1 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mina Kreiter 0.00% 10000 751 60
Minami Katsu 0.52% 192 151 45
Minjee Lee 4.15% 24 17 143
Miranda Wang 0.40% 250 176 40
Miyu Yamashita 3.34% 30 23 20
Morgane Metraux 0.11% 909 751 132
Moriya Jutanugarn 0.16% 625 251 83
Narin An 0.55% 182 161 20
Nasa Hataoka 3.10% 32 26 91
Nataliya Guseva 0.84% 119 81 48
Olivia Cowan 0.25% 400 301 56
Pajaree Anannarukarn 1.15% 87 111 0.30% 58 -0.3 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patty Tavatanakit 0.61% 164 67 107
Paula Reto 0.24% 417 351 48
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.19% 526 301 91
Peiyun Chien 0.23% 435 401 100
Perrine Delacour 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 64 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Polly Mack 0.06% 1667 751 115
Pornanong Phatlum 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 117 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rio Takeda 1.93% 52 23 5
Robyn Choi 0.08% 1250 501 20
Ruixin Liu 0.39% 256 251 83
Ruoning Yin 3.46% 29 23 2
Ryann O'Toole 0.21% 476 501 20
Saki Baba 0.22% 455 201 56
Sarah Kemp 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 117 -0.1 Skybet: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sarah Schmelzel 2.06% 49 41 12
Savannah Grewal 0.06% 1667 601 31
Sofia Garcia 0.05% 2000 751 70
Somi Lee 1.61% 62 67 0.10% 12 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soo Bin Joo 0.11% 909 1001 27
Sophia Popov 0.08% 1250 751 70
Ssu-Chia Cheng 0.03% 3333 1501 70
Stacy Lewis 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 126 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephanie Kyriacou 1.16% 86 101 0.20% 6 -0.2 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sung Hyun Park 0.03% 3333 751 83
Wei-Ling Hsu 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 12 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Weiwei Zhang 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 52 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wichanee Meechai 0.09% 1111 601 70
Xiaowen Yin 0.09% 1111 1001 123
Xiyu Lin 0.67% 149 81 107
Yahui Zhang 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 31 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yan Liu 0.45% 222 161 4
Yani Tseng 0.01% 10000 1501 141
Yu Liu 0.32% 313 301 107
Yuka Saso 0.20% 500 176 126
Yuna Nishimura 0.17% 588 751 91
Yuri Yoshida 1.10% 91 71 132

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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