Simulation Results: BMW Ladies Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
A Lim Kim 2.71% 37 26 3
Akie Iwai 2.13% 47 26 75
Allisen Corpuz 0.62% 161 111 40
Andrea Lee 4.21% 24 29 0.80% 16 -0.8 Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashleigh Buhai 0.09% 1111 251 31
Auston Kim 0.47% 213 81 40
Benedetta Moresco 0.01% 10000 501 73
Brooke M. Henderson 3.00% 33 26 19
Brooke Matthews 0.17% 588 111 16
Carlota Ciganda 1.14% 88 51 67
Cassie Porter 0.05% 2000 251 31
Celine Boutier 2.71% 37 36 3
Chanettee Wannasaen 0.24% 417 111 54
Chella Choi 0.01% 10000 401 70
Chisato Iwai 3.75% 27 21 31
Esther Henseleit 0.95% 105 81 31
Esther Kwon 0.00% 10000 1501 77
Eun-Hee Ji 0.00% 10000 1001 24
Gabriela Ruffels 0.15% 667 151 61
Gaby Lopez 0.79% 127 67 45
Gemma Dryburgh 0.09% 1111 376 19
Grace Kim 0.26% 385 101 56
Gurleen Kaur 0.01% 10000 351 45
Haeji Kang 0.00% 10000 1001 78
Haeran Ryu 1.06% 94 34 45
Hannah Green 0.25% 400 126 5
Hye-Jin Choi 4.89% 20 23 0.60% 7 -0.6 BetVictor: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim 4.77% 21 17 10
Ilhee Lee 0.00% 10000 1001 74
In Gee Chun 0.23% 435 126 64
Ina Yoon 0.40% 250 81 24
Ingrid Lindblad 0.08% 1250 151 76
Jennifer Kupcho 1.20% 83 51 31
Jenny Bae 0.31% 323 81 67
Jenny Shin 0.85% 118 111 54
Jeongeun Lee5 0.17% 588 201 70
Jeongeun Lee6 0.00% 10000 351 64
Jin Hee Im 1.69% 59 41 31
Jin Young Ko 0.88% 114 56 19
Julia Lopez Ramirez 0.05% 2000 151 51
Karis Davidson 0.00% 10000 501 51
Kristen Gillman 0.10% 1000 226 56
Kumkang Park 0.03% 3333 201 67
Lauren Coughlin 0.50% 200 56 50
Leona Maguire 0.06% 1667 201 56
Lilia Vu 0.02% 5000 351 61
Lindy Duncan 0.92% 109 111 7
Linn Grant 0.43% 233 51 31
Lottie Woad 11.72% 8.5 14 4.90% 24 -4.9 Unibet: 13/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li 0.12% 833 201 40
Madelene Sagstrom 0.11% 909 151 51
Maja Stark 0.16% 625 111 24
Manon De Roey 0.39% 256 126 24
Mary Liu 0.06% 1667 251 64
Mi Hyang Lee 0.46% 217 111 45
Minami Katsu 1.72% 58 34 24
Minjee Lee 15.89% 6.3 9.5 6.00% 10 -6 Boyle Sports: 8.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miranda Wang 0.11% 909 101 24
Miyu Yamashita 7.85% 13 14 0.80% 40 -0.8 Unibet: 13/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nanna Koerstz Madsen 1.57% 64 46 10
Narin An 0.14% 714 201 7
Nasa Hataoka 4.66% 21 17 2
Nataliya Guseva 0.17% 588 111 40
Paula Reto 0.02% 5000 426 70
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard 0.03% 3333 251 56
Rio Takeda 2.67% 37 29 10
Robyn Choi 0.23% 435 126 16
Saki Baba 0.04% 2500 501 19
Sarah Schmelzel 0.73% 137 126 49
Sei Young Kim 3.99% 25 17 1
Somi Lee 3.28% 30 23 10
Soomin Oh 0.00% 10000 501 19
Stephanie Kyriacou 0.78% 128 81 10
Sung Hyun Park 0.01% 10000 251 61
Weiwei Zhang 0.02% 5000 501 31
Yan Liu 0.18% 556 201 31
Yealimi Noh 0.36% 278 111 5
Yuri Yoshida 0.11% 909 226 56

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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