Simulation Results: Aramco Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.61%	62	46		51
Aditi Ashok	0.05%	2000	276		27
Akie Iwai	0.95%	105	41		5
Alessandra Fanali	0.01%	10000	351		104
Alessia Nobilio	0.00%	10000	1501		89
Alice Hewson	0.00%	10000	551		71
Allisen Corpuz	0.44%	227	101		11
Amelia Garvey	0.01%	10000	276		51
Andrea Lee	1.05%	95	56		23
Angel Yin	0.20%	500	67		15
Anna Foster	0.00%	10000	1501		62
Anna Huang	0.00%	10000	301		13
Anna Nordqvist	0.10%	1000	351		74
Annabell Fuller	0.00%	10000	751		74
Anne Van Dam	0.00%	10000	226		119
Ariya Jutanugarn	0.88%	114	71		104
Auston Kim	1.04%	96	56		35
Avani Prashanth	0.00%	10000	1251		73
Ayaka Furue	2.76%	36	41	0.30%	35	-0.3	Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brianna Navarrosa	0.00%	10000	1001		47
Brooke M. Henderson	1.35%	74	56		23
Brooke Matthews	0.05%	2000	351		81
Caley McGinty	0.00%	10000	401		62
Cara Gainer	0.00%	10000	751		89
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.16%	625	226		51
Carlota Ciganda	0.10%	1000	276		9
Casandra Alexander	0.25%	400	91		47
Cassie Porter	0.33%	303	91		41
Celine Boutier	0.49%	204	161		41
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.04%	2500	276		97
Charley Hull	2.55%	39	31		15
Chiara Tamburlini	0.01%	10000	276		17
Chisato Iwai	2.74%	36	29		51
Daniela Darquea	0.00%	10000	1251		69
Darcey Harry	0.00%	10000	451		117
Diksha Dagar	0.00%	10000	401		81
Dorthea Forbrigd	0.00%	10000	751		97
Emma Spitz	0.01%	10000	601		89
Erika Hara	0.09%	1111	141		23
Esther Henseleit	0.75%	133	67		89
Frida Kinhult	0.02%	5000	326		81
Gabriela Ruffels	0.02%	5000	351		27
Gaby Lopez	1.31%	76	56		47
Gemma Dryburgh	0.02%	5000	451		35
Grace Kim	0.17%	588	151		27
Gurleen Kaur	0.00%	10000	1251		110
Haeran Ryu	5.21%	19	23	0.90%	89	-0.9	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hannah Green	2.81%	36	23		74
Hannah Screen	0.00%	10000	2001		104
Helen Briem	0.04%	2500	131		81
Hye-Jin Choi	3.97%	25	36	1.20%	23	-1.2	Skybet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hyo Joo Kim	12.40%	8.1	13	5.10%	13	-5.1	Betfred: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ina Yoon	0.69%	145	71		17
Jeeno Thitikul	8.08%	12	12		17
Jennifer Kupcho	0.15%	667	201		27
Jenny Bae	0.12%	833	201		74
Jenny Shin	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	17	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Korda	0.00%	10000	751		51
Jin Hee Im	0.38%	263	126		35
Jin Young Ko	0.05%	2000	141		27
Jing Yan	0.06%	1667	401		17
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.07%	1429	251		41
Kajsa Arwefjall	0.00%	10000	751		51
Karis Davidson	0.09%	1111	301		5
Kelsey Bennett	0.01%	10000	301		104
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.00%	10000	2001		89
Lauren Coughlin	0.18%	556	161		1
Lauren Walsh	0.00%	10000	1251		71
Leona Maguire	0.03%	3333	376		2
Leonie Harm	0.00%	10000	701		89
Lindy Duncan	0.82%	122	81		81
Linn Grant	0.50%	200	111		120
Lisa Pettersson	0.00%	10000	1501		62
Lottie Woad	2.85%	35	36	0.10%	41	-0.1	Skybet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucy Li	0.10%	1000	251		27
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.00%	10000	1501		70
Lydia Ko	2.65%	38	29		11
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	0.00%	10000	751		66
Manon De Roey	0.05%	2000	651		74
Mao Saigo	0.56%	179	71		104
Megan Khang	0.16%	625	251		51
Mi Hyang Lee	0.14%	714	131		41
Mimi Rhodes	0.21%	476	81		60
Minami Katsu	0.53%	189	81		74
Minjee Lee	3.97%	25	17		89
Miranda Wang	0.03%	3333	276		116
Miyu Yamashita	2.77%	36	34		4
Moa Folke	0.00%	10000	1001		118
Momoka Kobori	0.00%	10000	1001		112
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.46%	217	126		7
Nasa Hataoka	2.65%	38	29		9
Nastasia Nadaud	0.11%	909	251		81
Nataliya Guseva	0.03%	3333	651		112
Nelly Korda	16.84%	5.9	6.5	1.70%	2	0.31875	Skybet: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nuria Iturrioz	0.00%	10000	1251		97
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.11%	909	201		17
Patty Tavatanakit	0.06%	1667	176		27
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.01%	10000	451		61
Peiyun Chien	0.14%	714	251		97
Perrine Delacour	0.04%	2500	301		51
Pranavi Urs	0.00%	10000	1501		66
Rio Takeda	1.32%	76	56		74
Robyn Choi	0.04%	2500	401		110
Rose Zhang	1.05%	95	36		47
Ruoning Yin	1.27%	79	67		7
Saki Baba	0.00%	10000	501		104
Sara Kouskova	0.00%	10000	1001		112
Sei Young Kim	3.23%	31	23		41
Shannon Tan	0.05%	2000	176		66
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.00%	10000	1001		97
Somi Lee	1.48%	68	61		40
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.00%	10000	601		97
Trichat Cheenglab	0.00%	10000	601		81
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.02%	5000	651		115
Weiwei Zhang	0.06%	1667	251		62
Yan Liu	0.16%	625	276		27
Yealimi Noh	0.02%	5000	401		51
Youmin Hwang	1.01%	99	81		35
Yu Liu	0.10%	1000	226		97
Yuri Yoshida	0.03%	3333	401		81

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
A Lim Kim	1.72%	58	46		15
Aditi Ashok	0.55%	182	111		58
Akie Iwai	1.36%	74	46		26
Alessandra Fanali	0.32%	313	126		95
Alessia Nobilio	0.11%	909	251		44
Alice Hewson	0.28%	357	151		44
Allisen Corpuz	1.21%	83	76		15
Amelia Garvey	0.33%	303	111		111
Andrea Lee	1.20%	83	51		7
Angel Yin	0.97%	103	56		26
Anna Foster	0.17%	588	251		58
Anna Huang	0.29%	345	126		26
Anna Nordqvist	0.77%	130	111		58
Annabell Fuller	0.19%	526	151		71
Anne Van Dam	0.19%	526	101		119
Ariya Jutanugarn	1.22%	82	56		106
Auston Kim	1.24%	81	56		58
Avani Prashanth	0.12%	833	251		71
Ayaka Furue	1.89%	53	46		44
Brianna Navarrosa	0.15%	667	251		44
Brooke M. Henderson	1.38%	72	46		95
Brooke Matthews	0.56%	179	126		15
Caley McGinty	0.33%	303	141		71
Cara Gainer	0.17%	588	201		7
Carla Tejedo Mulet	0.87%	115	101		15
Carlota Ciganda	0.66%	152	101		71
Casandra Alexander	0.94%	106	61		26
Cassie Porter	0.98%	102	67		26
Celine Boutier	1.03%	97	91		71
Chanettee Wannasaen	0.49%	204	111		90
Charley Hull	1.65%	61	41		11
Chiara Tamburlini	0.39%	256	101		90
Chisato Iwai	1.71%	58	41		71
Daniela Darquea	0.22%	455	251		71
Darcey Harry	0.23%	435	126		111
Diksha Dagar	0.31%	323	126		71
Dorthea Forbrigd	0.11%	909	176		71
Emma Spitz	0.35%	286	151		15
Erika Hara	0.61%	164	91		26
Esther Henseleit	1.26%	79	56		95
Frida Kinhult	0.48%	208	126		71
Gabriela Ruffels	0.54%	185	126		26
Gaby Lopez	1.59%	63	56		15
Gemma Dryburgh	0.53%	189	141		7
Grace Kim	0.82%	122	101		26
Gurleen Kaur	0.25%	400	251		90
Haeran Ryu	2.11%	47	34		44
Hannah Green	1.99%	50	36		71
Hannah Screen	0.20%	500	301		7
Helen Briem	0.64%	156	91		15
Hye-Jin Choi	1.91%	52	46		58
Hyo Joo Kim	3.40%	29	26		4
Ina Yoon	1.09%	92	67		11
Jeeno Thitikul	2.44%	41	23		26
Jennifer Kupcho	0.84%	119	101		71
Jenny Bae	0.77%	130	101		58
Jenny Shin	1.17%	85	111	0.30%	44	-0.3	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jessica Korda	0.14%	714	226		71
Jin Hee Im	0.91%	110	81		26
Jin Young Ko	0.63%	159	81		15
Jing Yan	0.65%	154	151		4
Julia Lopez Ramirez	0.60%	167	101		26
Kajsa Arwefjall	0.35%	286	176		71
Karis Davidson	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	26	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kelsey Bennett	0.45%	222	111		44
Laura Fuenfstueck	0.12%	833	301		95
Lauren Coughlin	0.89%	112	91		1
Lauren Walsh	0.21%	476	251		11
Leona Maguire	0.61%	164	126		11
Leonie Harm	0.26%	385	161		95
Lindy Duncan	1.41%	71	67		106
Linn Grant	1.20%	83	81		26
Lisa Pettersson	0.16%	625	301		118
Lottie Woad	2.05%	49	41		26
Lucy Li	0.70%	143	101		106
Luna Sobron Galmes	0.14%	714	301		58
Lydia Ko	1.95%	51	41		71
Maddison Hinson-Tolchard	0.25%	400	176		58
Manon De Roey	0.65%	154	151		106
Mao Saigo	1.05%	95	61		58
Megan Khang	0.90%	111	101		95
Mi Hyang Lee	0.69%	145	91		58
Mimi Rhodes	0.99%	101	56		15
Minami Katsu	1.19%	84	56		95
Minjee Lee	1.98%	51	34		111
Miranda Wang	0.50%	200	101		71
Miyu Yamashita	1.99%	50	41		1
Moa Folke	0.18%	556	201		111
Momoka Kobori	0.17%	588	201		111
Nanna Koerstz Madsen	0.94%	106	71		26
Nasa Hataoka	1.94%	52	41		1
Nastasia Nadaud	0.77%	130	101		111
Nataliya Guseva	0.52%	192	151		44
Nelly Korda	3.37%	30	17		4
Nuria Iturrioz	0.28%	357	251		111
Pajaree Anannarukarn	0.77%	130	101		58
Patty Tavatanakit	0.65%	154	101		26
Pauline Roussin-Bouchard	0.36%	278	151		44
Peiyun Chien	0.86%	116	101		90
Perrine Delacour	0.62%	161	101		44
Pranavi Urs	0.18%	556	301		90
Rio Takeda	1.61%	62	51		15
Robyn Choi	0.61%	164	151		95
Rose Zhang	1.48%	68	46		44
Ruoning Yin	1.32%	76	56		15
Saki Baba	0.36%	278	151		44
Sara Kouskova	0.16%	625	201		71
Sei Young Kim	1.84%	54	34		26
Shannon Tan	0.55%	182	91		71
Smilla Tarning Soenderby	0.11%	909	251		71
Somi Lee	1.66%	60	56		58
Stephanie Kyriacou	0.18%	556	151		106
Trichat Cheenglab	0.22%	455	151		44
Wei-Ling Hsu	0.45%	222	176		119
Weiwei Zhang	0.56%	179	111		95
Yan Liu	0.69%	145	111		26
Yealimi Noh	0.48%	208	141		58
Youmin Hwang	1.19%	84	71		44
Yu Liu	0.77%	130	111		95
Yuri Yoshida	0.55%	182	151		95

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hyo Joo Kim	12.40%	8.1	13	5.10%	13	-2	Betfred: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Nelly Korda	16.84%	5.9	6.5	1.70%	2	0.375	Skybet: 5.5/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Hye-Jin Choi	3.97%	25	36	1.20%	23	-2	Skybet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jenny Shin	1.17%	85	111	0.30%	44	-1.5	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Karis Davidson	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	26	-1.5	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.