Simulation Results: LIV Golf South Africa

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.47%	40	51	0.50%			PaddyPower: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Meronk	0.46%	217	181
Anirban Lahiri	0.48%	208	141
Anthony Kim	0.16%	625	71
Ben Campbell	0.16%	625	276
Bjorn Hellgren	0.03%	3333	276
Branden Grace	3.43%	29	36	0.70%			Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Steele	0.33%	303	151
Bryson DeChambeau	13.44%	7.4	8	1.10%			Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bubba Watson	0.61%	164	131
Byeong Hun An	1.55%	65	61
Caleb Surratt	0.93%	108	67
Cameron Smith	2.00%	50	23
Cameron Tringale	0.85%	118	141	0.10%			Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	3.34%	30	34	0.40%			Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charl Schwartzel	1.53%	65	71	0.10%			PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	1.16%	86	91	0.10%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.08%	1250	1001
David Puig	4.14%	24	19
Dean Burmester	2.34%	43	17
Dustin Johnson	1.41%	71	46
Elvis Smylie	0.86%	116	41
Graeme McDowell	1.05%	95	161	0.40%			Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	0.76%	132	111
Ian Poulter	0.21%	476	1001	0.10%			Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak	0.92%	109	181	0.40%			Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.63%	38	15
Jon Rahm	13.99%	7.1	4.75
Jose Luis Ballester	1.46%	68	46
Laurie Canter	1.02%	98	141	0.30%			Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	0.72%	139	101
Louis Oosthuizen	2.50%	40	34
Lucas Herbert	3.67%	27	26
Luis Masaveu	0.11%	909	351
Marc Leishman	3.01%	33	31
Martin Kaymer	0.06%	1667	1501
Matthew Wolff	0.61%	164	51
Michael La Sasso	0.01%	10000	751
Miguel Tabuena	0.04%	2500	351
Minkyu Kim	0.01%	10000	1251
Paul Casey	0.79%	127	86
Peter Uihlein	1.30%	77	67
Richard Bland	0.94%	106	151	0.30%			William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.11%	909	67
Sam Horsfield	0.06%	1667	1001
Scott Vincent	0.52%	192	67
Sebastian Munoz	3.36%	30	26
Sergio Garcia	1.80%	56	46
Talor Gooch	2.70%	37	36
Thomas Detry	1.57%	64	26
Thomas Pieters	2.88%	35	23
Tom McKibbin	4.44%	23	34	1.50%			Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	3.87%	26	21
Victor Perez	0.92%	109	91
Wade Ormsby	0.06%	1667	351
Yosuke Asaji	0.05%	2000	501
Young-Han Song	0.11%	909	276

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.43%	41	51	0.50%			Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Adrian Meronk	1.19%	84	91	0.10%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.14%	88	81
Anthony Kim	0.76%	132	51
Ben Campbell	0.71%	141	126
Bjorn Hellgren	0.42%	238	126
Branden Grace	2.86%	35	41	0.40%			Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brendan Steele	1.03%	97	71
Bryson DeChambeau	5.56%	18	13
Bubba Watson	1.30%	77	71
Byeong Hun An	1.92%	52	41
Caleb Surratt	1.60%	63	46
Cameron Smith	2.22%	45	31
Cameron Tringale	1.55%	65	71	0.10%			Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.74%	36	34
Charl Schwartzel	1.89%	53	51
Charles Howell	1.78%	56	61	0.10%			Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.56%	179	276	0.20%			Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Puig	3.07%	33	23
Dean Burmester	2.47%	40	26
Dustin Johnson	1.87%	53	41
Elvis Smylie	1.52%	66	36
Graeme McDowell	1.69%	59	91	0.60%			Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.46%	68	67
Ian Poulter	0.85%	118	226	0.40%			Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jason Kokrak	1.57%	64	91	0.50%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.56%	39	21
Jon Rahm	5.74%	17	10
Jose Luis Ballester	1.92%	52	34
Laurie Canter	1.69%	59	81	0.50%			Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	1.42%	70	67
Louis Oosthuizen	2.43%	41	36
Lucas Herbert	2.86%	35	29
Luis Masaveu	0.66%	152	151
Marc Leishman	2.71%	37	36
Martin Kaymer	0.56%	179	301	0.20%			Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	1.25%	80	41
Michael La Sasso	0.27%	370	201
Miguel Tabuena	0.50%	200	151
Minkyu Kim	0.31%	323	251
Paul Casey	1.56%	64	61
Peter Uihlein	1.81%	55	46
Phil Mickelson	0.48%	208
Richard Bland	1.61%	62	81	0.40%			Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.69%	145	46
Sam Horsfield	0.60%	167	201	0.10%			Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Vincent	1.19%	84	51
Sebastian Munoz	2.72%	37	31
Sergio Garcia	2.11%	47	46
Talor Gooch	2.52%	40	34
Thomas Detry	1.97%	51	29
Thomas Pieters	2.58%	39	29
Tom McKibbin	3.32%	30	36	0.60%			Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	2.97%	34	23
Victor Perez	1.61%	62	61
Yosuke Asaji	0.50%	200	151
Young-Han Song	0.72%	139	126

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Tom McKibbin	4.44%	23	34	1.50%			Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	13.44%	7.4	8	1.10%			Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Branden Grace	3.43%	29	36	0.70%			Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tom McKibbin	3.32%	30	36	0.60%			Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Graeme McDowell	1.69%	59	91	0.60%			Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Abraham Ancer	2.43%	41	51	0.50%			Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Laurie Canter	1.69%	59	81	0.50%			Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.57%	64	91	0.50%			Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Branden Grace	2.86%	35	41	0.40%			Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly* - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the value in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and and the six advised each-way plays FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated on Mondays. Advised each-way plays will be posted on Tuesday afternoon once odds have settled and there is maximum opportunity to get the prices advertised. FRL plays will be posted on Wednesday or one day prior to the start of the event.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event for this year is available here. Results for 2024 are available here.

* The Kelly criterion is given by:

Where:
K = Kelly stake (optimal % of bankroll)
b = (Best Odds - 1)
p = probability of winning (Win%)
q = probability of losing (1 - Win%)

Using the odds that are available to you, calculate your 'Kelly stake' using the calculator below. Once you have selected the player, the win odds will be auto-populated from the table above.