Simulation Results: LIV Golf South Africa

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.47%	40	51	0.50%	3	2.5625	PaddyPower: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Meronk	0.46%	217	181		22
Anirban Lahiri	0.48%	208	141		9
Anthony Kim	0.16%	625	71		56
Ben Campbell	0.16%	625	276		44
Bjorn Hellgren	0.03%	3333	276		55
Branden Grace	3.43%	29	36	0.70%	3	2.7125	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brendan Steele	0.33%	303	151		24
Bryson DeChambeau	13.44%	7.4	8	1.10%	1	4.62	Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bubba Watson	0.61%	164	131		38
Byeong Hun An	1.55%	65	61		44
Caleb Surratt	0.93%	108	67		24
Cameron Smith	2.00%	50	23		17
Cameron Tringale	0.85%	118	141	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	3.34%	30	34	0.40%	8	-0.4	Betfred: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charl Schwartzel	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	24	-0.1	PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Howell	1.16%	86	91	0.10%	9	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.08%	1250	1001		52
David Puig	4.14%	24	19		6
Dean Burmester	2.34%	43	17		6
Dustin Johnson	1.41%	71	46		31
Elvis Smylie	0.86%	116	41		44
Graeme McDowell	1.05%	95	161	0.40%	53	-0.4	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	0.76%	132	111		38
Ian Poulter	0.21%	476	1001	0.10%	48	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak	0.92%	109	181	0.40%	22	-0.4	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.63%	38	15		12
Jon Rahm	13.99%	7.1	4.75		2
Jose Luis Ballester	1.46%	68	46		12
Laurie Canter	1.02%	98	141	0.30%	17	-0.3	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	0.72%	139	101		50
Louis Oosthuizen	2.50%	40	34		17
Lucas Herbert	3.67%	27	26		31
Luis Masaveu	0.11%	909	351		24
Marc Leishman	3.01%	33	31		31
Martin Kaymer	0.06%	1667	1501		31
Matthew Wolff	0.61%	164	51		53
Michael La Sasso	0.01%	10000	751		12
Miguel Tabuena	0.04%	2500	351		51
Minkyu Kim	0.01%	10000	1251		57
Paul Casey	0.79%	127	86		38
Peter Uihlein	1.30%	77	67		30
Richard Bland	0.94%	106	151	0.30%	12	-0.3	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.11%	909	67		31
Sam Horsfield	0.06%	1667	1001		44
Scott Vincent	0.52%	192	67		11
Sebastian Munoz	3.36%	30	26		37
Sergio Garcia	1.80%	56	46		17
Talor Gooch	2.70%	37	36		24
Thomas Detry	1.57%	64	26		3
Thomas Pieters	2.88%	35	23		38
Tom McKibbin	4.44%	23	34	1.50%	24	-1.5	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	3.87%	26	21		38
Victor Perez	0.92%	109	91		12
Wade Ormsby	0.06%	1667	351
Yosuke Asaji	0.05%	2000	501		43
Young-Han Song	0.11%	909	276		17

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.43%	41	51	0.50%	7	-0.5	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Adrian Meronk	1.19%	84	91	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.14%	88	81		33
Anthony Kim	0.76%	132	51		46
Ben Campbell	0.71%	141	126		40
Bjorn Hellgren	0.42%	238	126		54
Branden Grace	2.86%	35	41	0.40%	3	1.2	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brendan Steele	1.03%	97	71		46
Bryson DeChambeau	5.56%	18	13		1
Bubba Watson	1.30%	77	71		33
Byeong Hun An	1.92%	52	41		29
Caleb Surratt	1.60%	63	46		17
Cameron Smith	2.22%	45	31		7
Cameron Tringale	1.55%	65	71	0.10%	46	-0.1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	2.74%	36	34		17
Charl Schwartzel	1.89%	53	51		7
Charles Howell	1.78%	56	61	0.10%	1	2.25	Unibet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny Lee	0.56%	179	276	0.20%	46	-0.2	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Puig	3.07%	33	23		7
Dean Burmester	2.47%	40	26		17
Dustin Johnson	1.87%	53	41		29
Elvis Smylie	1.52%	66	36		17
Graeme McDowell	1.69%	59	91	0.60%	40	-0.6	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.46%	68	67		7
Ian Poulter	0.85%	118	226	0.40%	17	-0.4	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jason Kokrak	1.57%	64	91	0.50%	7	-0.5	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.56%	39	21		17
Jon Rahm	5.74%	17	10		5
Jose Luis Ballester	1.92%	52	34		33
Laurie Canter	1.69%	59	81	0.50%	33	-0.5	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Westwood	1.42%	70	67		7
Louis Oosthuizen	2.43%	41	36		33
Lucas Herbert	2.86%	35	29		33
Luis Masaveu	0.66%	152	151		40
Marc Leishman	2.71%	37	36		40
Martin Kaymer	0.56%	179	301	0.20%	40	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Wolff	1.25%	80	41		50
Michael La Sasso	0.27%	370	201		50
Miguel Tabuena	0.50%	200	151		50
Minkyu Kim	0.31%	323	251		56
Paul Casey	1.56%	64	61		54
Peter Uihlein	1.81%	55	46		50
Phil Mickelson	0.48%	208			56
Richard Bland	1.61%	62	81	0.40%	7	-0.4	Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard T. Lee	0.69%	145	46		17
Sam Horsfield	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Vincent	1.19%	84	51		7
Sebastian Munoz	2.72%	37	31		40
Sergio Garcia	2.11%	47	46		3
Talor Gooch	2.52%	40	34		5
Thomas Detry	1.97%	51	29		7
Thomas Pieters	2.58%	39	29		17
Tom McKibbin	3.32%	30	36	0.60%	29	-0.6	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton	2.97%	34	23		33
Victor Perez	1.61%	62	61		17
Yosuke Asaji	0.50%	200	151		29
Young-Han Song	0.72%	139	126		17

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Tom McKibbin	4.44%	23	34	1.50%	24	-2	Boyle Sports: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	13.44%	7.4	8	1.10%	1	8.4	Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Branden Grace	3.43%	29	36	0.70%	3	7.75	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tom McKibbin	3.32%	30	36	0.60%	29	-1	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Graeme McDowell	1.69%	59	91	0.60%	40	-1	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Abraham Ancer	2.43%	41	51	0.50%	7	-1	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Laurie Canter	1.69%	59	81	0.50%	33	-1	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.57%	64	91	0.50%	7	-1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Branden Grace	2.86%	35	41	0.40%	3	3	Spreadex: 35/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.