Simulation Results: LIV Golf Singapore

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.91%	34	36	0.10%	39	-0.1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Meronk	0.38%	263	151		35
Anirban Lahiri	1.11%	90	111	0.20%	51	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Kim	0.07%	1429	62		17
Ben Campbell	0.15%	667	251		42
Bjorn Hellgren	0.06%	1667	276		28
Branden Grace	2.21%	45	41		33
Brendan Steele	0.22%	455	226		10
Bryson DeChambeau	11.73%	8.5	12	3.70%	1	24.42	Boyle Sports: 11/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bubba Watson	0.54%	185	111		28
Byeong Hun An	2.95%	34	41	0.50%	42	-0.5	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Caleb Surratt	0.68%	147	61		35
Cameron Smith	2.73%	37	26		8
Cameron Tringale	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	21	-0.3	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	3.11%	32	27		21
Charl Schwartzel	0.67%	149	91		21
Charles Howell	1.34%	75	71		28
Danny Lee	0.04%	2500	1001		47
David Puig	4.30%	23	15		21
Dean Burmester	1.77%	56	31		10
Dustin Johnson	1.37%	73	71		10
Elvis Smylie	0.41%	244	36		28
Graeme McDowell	0.56%	179	151		28
Harold Varner	1.02%	98	71		42
Ian Poulter	0.16%	625	501		47
Jason Kokrak	1.14%	88	126	0.30%	33	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joaquin Niemann	3.41%	29	21		4
Jon Rahm	16.57%	6	3.75		5
Jose Luis Ballester	0.58%	172	67		6
Laurie Canter	0.57%	175	151		42
Lee Westwood	0.14%	714	276		3
Louis Oosthuizen	2.15%	47	36		21
Lucas Herbert	2.66%	38	23		17
Luis Masaveu	0.07%	1429	276		54
Marc Leishman	2.92%	34	31		15
Martin Kaymer	0.04%	2500	1001		42
Matthew Wolff	0.27%	370	71		8
Michael La Sasso	0.03%	3333	501		55
Miguel Tabuena	0.12%	833	201		50
Minkyu Kim	0.02%	5000	1001		57
Paul Casey	0.89%	112	61		21
Peter Uihlein	1.93%	52	46		49
Richard Bland	1.34%	75	91	0.20%	51	-0.2	Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.16%	625	86		2
Sam Horsfield	0.06%	1667	751		56
Scott Vincent	1.53%	65	101	0.50%	17	-0.5	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz	4.61%	22	21		17
Sergio Garcia	2.15%	47	36		35
Talor Gooch	2.67%	37	36		10
Thomas Detry	1.75%	57	26		15
Thomas Pieters	2.05%	49	29		6
Tom McKibbin	1.82%	55	34		21
Tyrrell Hatton	5.60%	18	21	0.90%	10	-0.9	William Hill: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Perez	0.82%	122	71		35
Wade Ormsby	0.05%	2000	301		51
Yosuke Asaji	0.24%	417	401		39
Young-Han Song	0.04%	2500	226		39

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	2.61%	38	34		53
Adrian Meronk	1.17%	85	91	0.10%	12	-0.1	William Hill: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anirban Lahiri	1.72%	58	61	0.10%	45	-0.1	William Hill: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anthony Kim	0.63%	159	51		12
Ben Campbell	0.76%	132	91		45
Bjorn Hellgren	0.53%	189	101		22
Branden Grace	2.34%	43	36		22
Brendan Steele	0.95%	105	81		22
Bryson DeChambeau	5.31%	19	17		1
Bubba Watson	1.25%	80	71		45
Byeong Hun An	2.55%	39	41	0.10%	45	-0.1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Caleb Surratt	1.38%	72	41		12
Cameron Smith	2.56%	39	26		12
Cameron Tringale	1.79%	56	67	0.30%	5	0.0042857142857143	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
Carlos Ortiz	2.69%	37	31		12
Charl Schwartzel	1.38%	72	56		31
Charles Howell	1.86%	54	56	0.10%	5	-0.014285714285714	Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/5
Danny Lee	0.49%	204	201		27
David Puig	3.18%	31	19		39
Dean Burmester	2.14%	47	29		31
Dustin Johnson	1.90%	53	51		27
Elvis Smylie	1.11%	90	34		39
Graeme McDowell	1.38%	72	81	0.10%	12	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harold Varner	1.75%	57	51		27
Ian Poulter	0.78%	128	171	0.20%	45	-0.2	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak	1.77%	56	81	0.50%	45	-0.5	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joaquin Niemann	2.94%	34	23		12
Jon Rahm	6.27%	16	9		1
Jose Luis Ballester	1.30%	77	51		39
Laurie Canter	1.33%	75	81	0.10%	45	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lee Westwood	0.76%	132	126		1
Louis Oosthuizen	2.24%	45	34		5
Lucas Herbert	2.48%	40	23		39
Luis Masaveu	0.60%	167	101		53
Marc Leishman	2.68%	37	31		5
Martin Kaymer	0.47%	213	201		55
Matthew Wolff	0.98%	102	51		5
Michael La Sasso	0.45%	222	151		45
Miguel Tabuena	0.64%	156	91		31
Minkyu Kim	0.35%	286	201		57
Paul Casey	1.56%	64	51		22
Peter Uihlein	2.17%	46	41		31
Richard Bland	1.97%	51	61	0.30%	31	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard T. Lee	0.77%	130	56		1
Sam Horsfield	0.49%	204	171		55
Scott Vincent	1.98%	51	71	0.60%	12	-0.6	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Munoz	3.15%	32	23		39
Sergio Garcia	2.28%	44	34		31
Talor Gooch	2.49%	40	34		22
Thomas Detry	2.06%	49	29		5
Thomas Pieters	2.35%	43	29		31
Tom McKibbin	2.12%	47	29		12
Tyrrell Hatton	3.70%	27	21		5
Victor Perez	1.55%	65	56		12
Wade Ormsby	0.49%	204	126		31
Yosuke Asaji	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	27	-0.1	William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Young-Han Song	0.48%	208	81		39

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Bryson DeChambeau	11.73%	8.5	12	3.70%	1	13.2	Boyle Sports: 11/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Tyrrell Hatton	5.60%	18	21	0.90%	10	-2	William Hill: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Byeong Hun An	2.95%	34	41	0.50%	42	-2	Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Scott Vincent	1.98%	51	71	0.60%	12	-1	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Kokrak	1.77%	56	81	0.50%	45	-1	Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Bland	1.97%	51	61	0.30%	31	-1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Cameron Tringale	1.79%	56	67	0.30%	5	0.014285714285714	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ian Poulter	0.78%	128	171	0.20%	45	-1	Bet365: 170/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Byeong Hun An	2.55%	39	41	0.10%	45	-1	BetMGM: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.