Simulation Results: LIV Golf Riyadh
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| Abraham Ancer |
2.34% |
43 |
56 |
0.60% |
4 |
2.7 |
Boyle Sports: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Adrian Meronk |
1.60% |
63 |
91 |
0.50% |
27 |
-0.5 |
Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Anirban Lahiri |
0.56% |
179 |
101 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Anthony Kim |
0.00% |
10000 |
301 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Ben Campbell |
0.07% |
1429 |
501 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Ben Schmidt |
0.15% |
667 |
|
|
41 |
|
|
| Bjorn Hellgren |
0.08% |
1250 |
251 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Branden Grace |
2.13% |
47 |
41 |
|
9 |
|
|
| Brendan Steele |
0.17% |
588 |
226 |
|
57 |
|
|
| Bryson DeChambeau |
7.48% |
13 |
8.5 |
|
17 |
|
|
| Bubba Watson |
0.58% |
172 |
51 |
|
48 |
|
|
| Byeong Hun An |
1.00% |
100 |
41 |
|
9 |
|
|
| Caleb Surratt |
1.21% |
83 |
41 |
|
39 |
|
|
| Cameron Smith |
1.23% |
81 |
34 |
|
13 |
|
|
| Cameron Tringale |
2.90% |
34 |
71 |
1.50% |
41 |
-1.5 |
Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Carlos Ortiz |
2.53% |
40 |
29 |
|
13 |
|
|
| Charl Schwartzel |
1.00% |
100 |
101 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Charles Howell |
2.34% |
43 |
71 |
0.90% |
39 |
-0.9 |
Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Danny Lee |
0.01% |
10000 |
1001 |
|
41 |
|
|
| David Puig |
10.27% |
9.7 |
11 |
1.30% |
4 |
0.21666666666667 |
Unibet: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Dean Burmester |
2.38% |
42 |
29 |
|
51 |
|
|
| Dustin Johnson |
2.38% |
42 |
71 |
1.00% |
17 |
-1 |
Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Elvis Smylie |
0.48% |
208 |
101 |
|
1 |
|
|
| Graeme McDowell |
0.14% |
714 |
301 |
|
27 |
|
|
| Harold Varner |
0.38% |
263 |
111 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Ian Poulter |
0.07% |
1429 |
501 |
|
41 |
|
|
| Jason Kokrak |
0.44% |
227 |
131 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Joaquin Niemann |
7.71% |
13 |
21 |
3.10% |
22 |
-3.1 |
Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Jon Rahm |
8.36% |
12 |
6 |
|
2 |
|
|
| Jose Luis Ballester |
0.68% |
147 |
36 |
|
27 |
|
|
| Laurie Canter |
1.12% |
89 |
56 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Louis Oosthuizen |
1.92% |
52 |
41 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Lucas Herbert |
0.83% |
120 |
36 |
|
9 |
|
|
| Luis Masaveu |
0.02% |
5000 |
201 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Marc Leishman |
1.85% |
54 |
41 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Martin Kaymer |
0.06% |
1667 |
351 |
|
51 |
|
|
| Matthew Wolff |
0.06% |
1667 |
301 |
|
51 |
|
|
| Michael La Sasso |
0.01% |
10000 |
201 |
|
41 |
|
|
| Minkyu Kim |
0.01% |
10000 |
601 |
|
41 |
|
|
| Ollie Schniederjans |
0.01% |
10000 |
301 |
|
56 |
|
|
| Paul Casey |
1.43% |
70 |
67 |
|
17 |
|
|
| Peter Uihlein |
0.53% |
189 |
111 |
|
3 |
|
|
| Richard Bland |
0.98% |
102 |
111 |
0.10% |
55 |
-0.1 |
Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Richard T. Lee |
0.05% |
2000 |
111 |
|
13 |
|
|
| Sam Horsfield |
0.07% |
1429 |
251 |
|
48 |
|
|
| Scott Vincent |
0.50% |
200 |
161 |
|
13 |
|
|
| Sebastian Munoz |
1.88% |
53 |
29 |
|
8 |
|
|
| Sergio Garcia |
5.09% |
20 |
23 |
0.80% |
30 |
-0.8 |
Boyle Sports: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Talor Gooch |
1.34% |
75 |
46 |
|
12 |
|
|
| Thomas Detry |
1.78% |
56 |
34 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Thomas Pieters |
1.00% |
100 |
41 |
|
4 |
|
|
| Tom McKibbin |
5.04% |
20 |
23 |
0.70% |
17 |
-0.7 |
Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
11.96% |
8.4 |
13 |
4.60% |
47 |
-4.6 |
Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Victor Perez |
1.68% |
60 |
67 |
0.20% |
54 |
-0.2 |
Priced Up: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| Yosuke Asaji |
0.01% |
10000 |
401 |
|
17 |
|
|
| Young-Han Song |
0.13% |
769 |
251 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Player |
TT Win |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| Abraham Ancer |
2.42% |
41 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
| Adrian Meronk |
2.02% |
50 |
401 |
|
|
|
|
| Anirban Lahiri |
1.38% |
72 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| Anthony Kim |
0.18% |
556 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
| Ben Campbell |
0.64% |
156 |
86 |
|
|
|
|
| Ben Schmidt |
0.83% |
120 |
351 |
|
|
|
|
| Bjorn Hellgren |
0.70% |
143 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Branden Grace |
2.40% |
42 |
67 |
|
|
|
|
| Brendan Steele |
0.84% |
119 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Bryson DeChambeau |
4.24% |
24 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
| Bubba Watson |
1.40% |
71 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Byeong Hun An |
1.73% |
58 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
| Caleb Surratt |
1.91% |
52 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
| Cameron Smith |
1.87% |
53 |
601 |
|
|
|
|
| Cameron Tringale |
2.82% |
35 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
| Carlos Ortiz |
2.61% |
38 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
| Charl Schwartzel |
1.74% |
57 |
301 |
|
|
|
|
| Charles Howell |
2.54% |
39 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Danny Lee |
0.36% |
278 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| David Puig |
5.18% |
19 |
81 |
|
|
|
|
| Dean Burmester |
2.55% |
39 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
| Dustin Johnson |
2.50% |
40 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Elvis Smylie |
1.24% |
81 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| Graeme McDowell |
0.79% |
127 |
126 |
|
|
|
|
| Harold Varner |
1.15% |
87 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
| Ian Poulter |
0.62% |
161 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Jason Kokrak |
1.24% |
81 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Joaquin Niemann |
4.40% |
23 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
| Jon Rahm |
4.51% |
22 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| Jose Luis Ballester |
1.35% |
74 |
101 |
|
|
|
|
| Laurie Canter |
1.84% |
54 |
176 |
|
|
|
|
| Louis Oosthuizen |
2.27% |
44 |
201 |
|
|
|
|
| Lucas Herbert |
1.61% |
62 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Luis Masaveu |
0.32% |
313 |
226 |
|
|
|
|
| Marc Leishman |
2.36% |
42 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
| Martin Kaymer |
0.55% |
182 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Matthew Wolff |
0.63% |
159 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Michael La Sasso |
0.25% |
400 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Minkyu Kim |
0.34% |
294 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| Ollie Schniederjans |
0.32% |
313 |
751 |
|
|
|
|
| Paul Casey |
1.91% |
52 |
401 |
|
|
|
|
| Peter Uihlein |
1.31% |
76 |
6.5 |
|
|
|
|
| Richard Bland |
1.71% |
58 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Richard T. Lee |
0.54% |
185 |
86 |
|
|
|
|
| Sam Horsfield |
0.69% |
145 |
251 |
|
|
|
|
| Scott Vincent |
1.30% |
77 |
71 |
|
|
|
|
| Sebastian Munoz |
2.28% |
44 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
| Sergio Garcia |
3.60% |
28 |
71 |
|
|
|
|
| Talor Gooch |
1.95% |
51 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
| Thomas Detry |
2.27% |
44 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| Thomas Pieters |
1.68% |
60 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Tom McKibbin |
3.56% |
28 |
86 |
|
|
|
|
| Tyrrell Hatton |
5.41% |
18 |
5.5 |
|
|
|
|
| Victor Perez |
2.15% |
47 |
141 |
|
|
|
|
| Yosuke Asaji |
0.29% |
345 |
176 |
|
|
|
|
| Young-Han Song |
0.74% |
135 |
111 |
|
|
|
|
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| WIN: Tyrrell Hatton |
11.96% |
8.4 |
13 |
4.60% |
47 |
-2 |
Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| WIN: Joaquin Niemann |
7.71% |
13 |
21 |
3.10% |
22 |
-2 |
Boyle Sports: 18/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| WIN: Cameron Tringale |
2.90% |
34 |
71 |
1.50% |
41 |
-2 |
Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4 |
| FRL: David Puig |
5.18% |
19 |
81 |
|
|
|
|
| FRL: Tom McKibbin |
3.56% |
28 |
86 |
|
|
|
|
| FRL: Charles Howell |
2.54% |
39 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| FRL: Dustin Johnson |
2.50% |
40 |
1001 |
|
|
|
|
| FRL: Sergio Garcia |
3.60% |
28 |
71 |
|
|
|
|
| FRL: Louis Oosthuizen |
2.27% |
44 |
201 |
|
|
|
|
The data in the above table is as follows:
- Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
- TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
- TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
- Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
- Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
- Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
- P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
- E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes
The
Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.
The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution.
This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.
To determine the number of replications
R, this is typically set at 10 /
e2, where
e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure).
With 100,000 replications,
e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.
This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.
While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.
TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives'
here.
Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available
here.
